World Cup-winning coach Jake White believes only a fool would rate Australia favourites to beat South Africa in Sunday’s quarter-final blockbuster.
Four years on from guiding the Springboks to the Webb Ellis Cup, White says his former team have the Wallabies covered for form, experience, bench impact and fully-fit personnel.
The new Brumbies coach also believes South Africa have the game best suited to handle Wellington’s wet and wild weather conditions, and should go all the way.
Springboks skipper John Smit this week claimed Australia had the mental edge through winning their two Tri Nations Tests, while Australian bookmakers have the Wallabies slight $1.85 favourites.
But White said Smit, under selection pressure from Bismarck du Plessis, was playing mind games in order to benefit from underdog status.
“They play a lot better with the underdog tag,” he told AAP.
“They have the feeling it will bring out the best of the group.
“The reality is Australia have a lot of players who are coming back from injury and they lost a game at the World Cup already.
“Anyone who understands rugby will know the Boks must be favourites.
“They are second in the world, they have winning momentum and have got 16 or 17 players who have won a World Cup playing in the tournament knowing exactly what is expected of them.
“Experience is a massive factor. When we look at the history of World Cups it’s the teams that have been there and done that that gives you that added value.”
Australia, the youngest squad at the tournament, have yet to produce a strong 80-minute pool performance and were upset 15-6 by Ireland, while the Boks have closed out two tense affairs against Wales and Samoa and smashed Fiji and Namibia.
The inconsistent Wallabies also have been disrupted through injuries, especially to key men David Pocock, Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale, and are less dangerous in the wet.
With New Zealand battling the loss of playmaker Dan Carter, White, controversially replaced by Peter de Villiers after the 2007 World Cup, felt the Boks were in the best shape to defend their crown.
“South Africa, as world champions, with the most experienced group of players and having 29 of their 30 players fit and available must be favourites to win all three games going home,” he said.
Adding to the pressure on de Villiers, who will name his team on Thursday morning, he is faced with a huge decision on whether to keep Smit as run-on hooker.
South African journalists are quietly predicting the colourful coach will drop a bombshell by dumping his captain in favour of in-form Bismarck du Plessis.
White indicated the timing of a decision which could potentially derail the campaign could not be worse after de Villiers kept Smit in the job all season despite his Sharks teammate’s superior form.
“I don’t think he knows what he’s going to do at the moment and I don’t want to help him make that decision,” he said. “I would like him to have this decision on his own.
“There’s no easy way out.”
If Smit is dropped, lock Victor Matfield would assume the captaincy but fellow veteran Schalk Burger on Wednesday expected the “status quo” would remain.
Burger, though, downplayed the Boks greater experience as a factor.
“If we win on Sunday it will probably be put down to ‘experience’, and if we lose it will probably come down to ‘age’ – it doesn’t matter,” he said.
Ben S
Roar Guru
'Yes Ben S, you failed to read my post before putting fingers to keyboard. I referred to the 3N in 2009. 2009, not 2008. You then responded: “Is this the same 2008 3N where SA came last?” When I write 2009 3N, I mean 2009 3N. Its not difficult!' {sigh} 'I grant you Boks have been playing below their potential for the past 18 months. But prior to that they were well and truly on top. Some highlights' You included a 2008 result as a highlight. That's plain silly. A one-off result in a terrible year hardly deserved mention when compared to the successes of 2009. Likewise with your beating Ireland comment. You're all over the place. Again.
Mike
Guest
Yes Ben S, you failed to read my post before putting fingers to keyboard. I referred to the 3N in 2009. 2009, not 2008. You then responded: "Is this the same 2008 3N where SA came last?" When I write 2009 3N, I mean 2009 3N. Its not difficult!
Ben S
Roar Guru
No, I wasn't reading the wrong post, hence my reference to 2008. I don't think coming last in the 3N is part of a period where SA were 'well and truly on top'. Likewise in 2010: SA beating Ireland was basically a single impressive note in an otherwise crapulent season, so basically you should be referring solely to 2009.
johnny-boy
Guest
Dont worry Bokke2011 - Ozzies always have a bright side. Ours is that if we lose it might hasten Deans' exit. Sometimes players just wont perform if they dont beleive in and want to get rid of the coach. Mind you this could just as easily apply to the Boks :)
Bokke2011
Guest
I won't lie folks. I'm as nervous as anything about this one. Very hard to predict without a crystal ball! Suppose we'll just have to let them play to decide the outcome. I wish the Wallabies supporters all the best, but hope even more that the Boks can bag this one. Apart from a world cup exit, 4 losses in a row against the Wallabies won't go down well at all. I'll have to resign /retire /go into exile /mourne for 40 days and 40 nights - get the picture?
johnny-boy
Guest
Thats insane Temba - such a casual setup and regulation technique tho Van Straaten like. Must be perfect timing
Rob9
Guest
No team has lost 2 pool games and made the final 8... till now. These sort of rubbish stats are there for the breaking. Last cup 2 teams that came 2nd in their pool knocked out the group topping AUS and NZ. As the competition at world cups continues to heat up, winning 7 games in a row will become increasingly harder. As us and the ab's found out last time, knockout football has a way of turning the world on its head and history doesnt count for much. Here are some more relevent stats for you. At the begining of the knock out stage there have and will continue to be at least 4 out of 8 teams who have lost a game in the pool that believe they can win the world cup. Furthermore the winner of each cup have and will continue to win there 3 knockout games. I like the last one...
Mike
Guest
No Ben S, you must have been reading the wrong post. I referred to the 2009 3N. The one where the ABs lost to the Boks every time. My point was that it is inaccurate to say that the Boks "haven't switched on for a few years now". Given my respect for the ABs, I think that the Boks beating them 3 times in a row is a pretty good sign of being "switched on" at that time. Would you disagree? And yes, you are right re Ireland, it was 2010 when the Boks beat them.
TembaVJ
Guest
I have to admit living in Australia I don't get to watch curry cup so I base my choice purely on S15... Good to hear there are exciting prospects brewing in SA, we will need it with old guard departing post RWC. I was sad to hear of Pretorious leaving to go play for the Tahs, I loved watching him play for the cheetahs. Has he played a game in green, is he eligible for the Wallas? If he doesn't play for the Wallabies he will learn a ton from Australian rugby and will be better off for it, how old is he? WOW just looked up Goosen and found one clip, a two step 67m kick... how do they do that??? he is still in under 20ies here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wLtxNe0nD0 How is the rest of his game?
Dex
Guest
Hey Temba sorry to be the one to tell you this but Lambie will not be the next gen Bok number 10. The Cheetahs unleashed a youngster in this years Curry Cup by the name of Johan Goosen and he has some serious talent. Folks in SA expect him to claim the 10 jumper as soon as the RWC ends and before Boks tour the UK at the end of the year. If you ask me what would you get if you crossed DC and Frans Steyn then this bloke is it! Saw him tear my beloved Sharks a new one the other day and was very impressive!!
Ben S
Roar Guru
Is this the same 2008 3N where SA came last? South Africa lost to Ireland in 2009.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
South Africa have never lost on a Sunday? Well, it's all over then. I'm surprised P-Divvy hasn't gotten all biblical on us.
Ivan
Guest
Found this on another website. SPRINGBOKS TEAM MILESTONES AND RECORDS · The starting lineup has 836 combined caps. This is the most experienced Springbok side of all time, with 21 more caps than the team that played against Wales in South Africa’s opening game in this tournament. · This will be South Africa’s 30th test match in RWC tournaments. Of the previous 29 tests, only three were lost, for a winning percentage of 89.7%, the best of any participant in this tournament. · South Africa have scored 115 tries in Rugby World Cup tournaments and 1 000 points. · The first test that was played by South Africa on a Sunday was against Italy in Rome on 12 November 1995. Since then the Springboks have played in 13 tests on a Sunday. They have won them all.
Ivan
Guest
i would. This is going to be brutal. I dont expect the Wallaby scrum to hold up well. If the Wallabie cant compete with the lineout king, and Brussow is on form on the ground - the attack ball becomes quite limited. But the Wallabies might just spring us a massive surprise and roll over the bok pack. Ive seen it happen, so im not going to call any wins for either side here - too many ifs, what ifs, and buts. Entertainment wise - it becomes knockout Rugby, so its not going to be a try fest. But for the rest of the World (outside of NZ and Aus) who like to see the old arm wrestle, it may provide some entertainment worth the paid subscription.
Rob9
Guest
Sorry 2many1ndians. Bit passionate about this one cause i think 12 is such an important position. Even more so when you have a team like ours that relies on getting the ball to some of our greatest weapons to score points. Sure if our game was like ENG or SA we could probably get away with it. We're just not being served there as we should and it's become an even tougher pill to swallow after being reminded of what Barnes can do there.
Ivan
Guest
Heres a stat for you - the Springboks have played 13 tests on a Sunday - and never lost one.
Rob9
Guest
Yea look that midfield in the game against the US was a weird look. Not my first choice 12 (again to harp on about a ball playing 12 for this team) but i would have much prefered to have seen Ant next to Quade to spark up that qld connection and see if they could get something happening closer in.
Rob9
Guest
Sure he played on a winning team for 3 games but that doesnt mean he played a winning role. Id suggest quite the opposite on half of the TN games. We'd have some serious issues if we couldnt pick apart the b/c boks that fronted up over here. His impact in that game was also minimal. He was no where to be seen at eden park and when we came up against the boks over there i think we could have done a better job of putting them away with an attacking minded centre. He continued to run into traffic and not move the ball along when he needed to.The one decent game ive seen him play at international level was the game at suncorp when he decided to run at holes as opposed to humans. Then at this cup, things started to happen against Italy when JOC came on and took on a 2nd play making role and we all know what happend against Ireland.... The whole point of selecting in big games is putting your best team on the field to have the best chance of beating your opponent. McCabe hasnt proved himself by any stretch and him being there is counter productive to the guys outside of him. Barnes has. Even before Barnes came back Deans has got a guy who plays most of his super rugby at 10/12 on the wing and a guy who plays out wider for the Brumbies at 2nd five. JOC is that sort of a versatile talent he can pretty much slot in anywhere, although i think he's being wasted out there (probably put him there now though with no Drew and a fit Barnes). For the reasons above my view is the McCabe at 12 experiment hasnt worked. Although it's getting late in the piece Deans has to move along, especially when a serious contender for the 12 shirt has entered the frame. Settling on individuals who have been there for wins in the past isnt the right selection policy. Especially against a team like the boks who have come a long way since a scratchy tri nations.
2many1ndians
Roar Rookie
Yeah, that makes sense too Rob.
Rob9
Guest
Love your optimism Damo!! On Barnes' game time and especially on our semi final opponent. My fingers crossed on both counts mate!