In just under three months’ time, the Greater Western Sydney Giants will take on the Sydney Swans in the opening game of the 2012 AFL season.
As much as AFL HQ would like to kick off the season with a great game between the new kids on the block and the perennial warhorses in the same backyard, the game its likely to be very one-sided affair even by half time.
The Gold Coast Suns were not afforded an opening game, and were forced to sit out the first round completely in 2011 with a bye. Yet the Suns at least had the formation of a competitive unit to start the club on the right foot.
In hindsight, the Suns were smashed in their first few AFL games, as the step up from VFL to AFL is massive in terms of pressure and the Suns’ list was just too thin.
The Suns, though, appear on paper to have been substantially stronger at the same stage as the Giants. The Giants have a younger and less experienced list than the Suns and no Garry Ablett to at least keep them in the game in the midfield.
They have Tom Scully, the apprentice, but he is not in the same league as the master Ablett. Injury prone and only in his second year, Scully is still green and cannot be expected to be the glue that holds the Giants’ midfield together.
A handful of almost retired players will be no substitute for the second-tier stars still in their prime like Nathan Bock and Campbell Brown of the Suns.
The cross-coder in Israel Folau may well turn out to be a more suited AFL player than Karmichael Hunt is for the Suns. Folau has taken to full forward like a fish to water, but must rely on ball delivery into the forward line first won in the midfield. His 2012 contribution is likely to be modest as a result.
The rest are kids, and of course their number one draft pick John Patton is in rehab in Sweden, not being considered as a starter for the opening game of the season.
As the Suns found out, it’s a long season, one that requires players with two or three preseasons under their belt to even survive the year, let alone wins games.
Given they have an inferior list to the Suns, will the Giants even win a game in 2012?
stabpass
Guest
Point were introduced to stop draws and were only counted if the game was 6 goals each(example), sort of like a countback to determine the winner. 1897 was the year when behinds became worth one point. 1866 was the year point posts were used for the first time.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Its kind of strange, you know. A 120 to 40 rout is no different in ratio to a 3-1 scoreline in association football, which is hardly unusual. But when you see it with the six points per goal accounting it looks like a slaughter. I sometimes wonder what it would be like to kill the behind posts as far as scoring goes (ie, leave them as corner-style posts for determining defensive kick-ins as opposed to throw-ins) and have one-point goals in terms of perception of the game.
Redb
Roar Guru
Hilarious stuff.
Jason
Guest
I'm not so sure. Skoda is the Czech car company that's actually owned by the German VW mob (The German VW company is a huge backer of AFL in Sydney as they also back the Swans...thank God it wasn't Hellenic Telecommunications backing the game here. At least we are safe from the European crisis for now, but I digress....). The mere thought of "The Bombers" taking on the Czechs and backed by the might of the Germans could create a few, maybe 2, sleepless nights in Windy hill (i.e. Sleepless in Windy Hill starring Meg Ryan, now aged 74...she meets Sheeds on top of the Sydney Tower in the final act). GWS a shoe-in for mine on this game. p.s. "Essendon Brains-Trust" is an oxymoron Redb, no?
Redb
Roar Guru
That's all well and good Toa, except these blokes are in the elite comp and are judged as such. In the end the journey or narrative of their transition is just as important as the destination, good or bad.
Toa
Guest
Redb,Cattery People need to assess & distinguish the following at any level 1 - The ability to learn to play Rugby League 2 - The ability to learn to play Rugby Union 3 - The ability to learn to play Australian Rules Whether its negative or positive his development is valuable to those who are willing and prepare to learn from this transition. To the civil minded its a template that can be applied to different employment backgrounds.The fair minded community want to witness the end result of what a stumpy body with wide legs and runs of 1/2 tank has got to offer. Thats where my problem lies why cant we let karmichael & Issy finish their story? Its because people lose PATIENCE we all want to teach but nobody wants to learn. Like any other rookie your assess on your ability to learn be it running, catching or kicking. If your have a proven track record to receive & deliver instructions the negative weekend results can be rectified.
Redb
Roar Guru
Bombers at Skoda probably wont have 94 to 1 at qtr time like they did against the Suns, but I dont think the Essendon brains trust will lose a wink of sleep at the thought of playing GWS anywhere let alone Skoda. lol
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Jason, Nice one :)
Jason
Guest
Looking thru the program I see a few wins. Round 2 at Blacktown against WCE. Eagles can't play that type of ground and the 'Blactown Express' train will fool them into thinking its half time 10 minutes beforehand and GWS will pile on 27 goals (refer last year's NAB cup game). Brisbane at the Gabba is a chance. Bombers at Skoda another as they'll turn up to the Olympic Stadium and only realise they have to walk across to Skoda at the end of the first quarter. Richmond at Skoda is another. Richmond will likely end bottom this year, so this is a gimme. Adelaide at Skoda is another. The Crows promise so much but have delivered little and this looks set to continue this year. Collingwood at Skoda is another chance. Half the 'Woods will be in Arizona or Mt Everest at that stage of the year, and infighting at Victoria Park over the sacking of Malthouse and Buckley's failure will send the Club to the brink of extinction. Finally, North Melb at Skoda in the last round. North are the likely club to merge with GWS in 2021, so they'll hand them this one. Overall, I see 6 wins, maybe more for the year.
Jaceman
Guest
ON Hunts progress I would compare him to Swan Pyke who came from RU. Hunt was a better Rugby player than Pyke but Pyke is still improving after 3 years froma lower base so we wont see the best of Hunt till next year if he sticks around...
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I'd agree with redb here on the two perspectives that you can view Hunt to date. From the perspective of transitioning from one code to another, it's gone as well as anyone could have expected. I think is because some of his strengths have translated immediately, he is a focused professional, and his basketballing background has helped a lot as well, e.g. he understood immediately the concept of shadowing an opponent and stopping him from getting the ball. But if you look at him as an AFL player, if you don't know his background, and sit there and watch a few of his performances, there are stacks of moments where you'd be asking yourself: what's this bloke doing? That Shaun Hart video above shows some great insights in Hunt's reading of the game, and areas where he is lacking (discussed amongst some good things he is doing). The areas he still needs to work at: winning the ball in the air (he's very good below his knees); judging when to go and when to stay back; passing over 40m instinctively (not having to think about, with pressure on hime, not needing to look at the ball, with barely a sight of the target); and increasing his tank. The latter is just about the most important, because if he had the tank, he could make an excellent run-with player, meaning good players would take him to the ball, and his body strength in centre bounces and around stoppages would be an advantage. However, if he doesn't have the tank, within a few minutes, the better onballers would be saying: bye bye.
Redb
Roar Guru
Toa, Don't misunderstand I am not anti Hunt or Folau. Just being honest in my opinion of Hunt to date. There are two assessments you can make and people need to distinguish between the two. 1. Hunt in transition from 'rugby' to AFL . 2. Hunt as an AFL player. I'm offering the latter. I disregard what the coaches of the Suns say on their website as they tend to look at Hunt from the perspective of 1.
Toa
Guest
Your scouting report certainly displays deficiency, evaluation of hunts capacity seems to be base on perception where gauging his legs in proportion to his upper body is seen as measure of failure. From Karmichael's announcement the majority have sung to the tune of what "he cant, couldn't & shouldn't do". apart from our educated opinions do we have the experience to understand what hunt is made out of? Answer no, Learning about both K & Issy transition allows those with civil views to explore other options other than the orthodox requirements needed to become a AFL player. Karmichael's ability to process information is second to none your analytic view regarding awareness carries weight although I disagree with your evaluation on him being comfortable playing off the ball .Why? Research tells me his role play was a lockout defender in turn limited his chances with the ball resulting in fewer touches therefore explaining his poor awareness at AFL level. I'm an advocate of patience & good things come to those who wait. I got a feeling the very people who recruited, know & understand him praise that saying.
TW
Guest
Apparently there is another brand new Aussie Rules club that will be based at Blacktown. The Blacktown Magic will be their name - And appears to be Aboriginal in make up and will play initially in the Sydney AFL Div 3. Cricket has taken over that complex for the summer- continuing a long tradition around Australia- and this club is looking for a training venue. The club has attracted 40 players down for training from the surrounding districts which is promising. Link to the new club-- http://www.sportingpulse.com/club_info.cgi?c=1-1047-124581-0-0 Perhaps with anecdotal evidence like above we are just starting to see some true reward of the effort and funds being poured into the Sydney area since circa 2001- The GWS formation has accelerated that effort.
stabpass
Guest
@ Ian, you may be right about AFL assistance, Sydney clubs had fallen a fair way behind their QLD counterparts, many of whom, have licensed clubs, pokies, and a bigger fan/support base.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
That's a great clip - worthwhile for many on this forum who don't understand the finer points of Australian football.
Redb
Roar Guru
I've watched him quite a few times and he lacks two things: 1. Ability to find the ball himself (midfield) and 2. Decision making once he gets the ball. He naturally seems more comfortable chasing down players with the ball and tackling them and appears to have learnt to use his body in defence to punch the ball away from his opponent, etc. Back to my original point, his body lacks endurance, those thighs weren't designed to do the running required. His height is also a factor in defence, kinda fits nowhere. Not tall enough for a key defender, not fast enough for a small forward. Half back flank about the best option. He can still improve so it will be interesting to see how he goes in 2012.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
And, of course, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwgeRwqqjZw&feature=relmfu This is his coach analysing Hunt's play.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Hunt is fine in the midfield, as long as his tank holds out. If he can build more tank, he'll be just fine as a space-creating enforcer in the very middle of the midfield. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckkOLnZAjsY&feature=related http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/karmichael-hunts-afl-education-continues-as-he-gets-set-ti-line-up-alongide-gary-ablett-in-suns-midifield/story-e6frf3e3-1226081765390 http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/suns-fire-hawks-reign-20110903-1jrqi.html
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The NEAFL and Foxtel Cup are as important for Australian Rules as GWS and Gold Coast are. I'd be very surprised if the Sydney Eagles and Sydney University dont get quiet AFL assistance if needed as well.