One month out from the AFL season opener, players, coaches and supporters of each team are optimistic about the year ahead. Every club is bristling with ‘February Flyers’ – players who are fit, tanned and toned, each one a ball of health and muscle. Every coach speaks confidently of the new tactics they have implemented, and supporters are sure that ‘this is the year’ their young guns will take the competition by storm.
But not all of these hopes and dreams will come into fruition for every team. The harsh reality is that some will suffer a sobering fall down the ladder, despite their best intentions.
So who are the candidates for collapse in 2012?
I believe the Western Bulldogs will suffer the greatest fall this year, tumbling five spots from 10th to 15th.
For a team that began a slide down the ladder last year, they are ill-equipped to lose their leading goal-kicker and best young midfielder, which has happened through the retirement of Barry Hall and the defection of Callan Ward to GWS.
With Barry in the side last year the ‘Dogs were largely competitive, winning almost half their games. When he wasn’t there they could only win two out of eight, those victories coming against lowly Richmond and Adelaide. Losing Hall’s sure hands, threatening presence and 3.6 goals a game will be something they can’t recover from.
His ninth placing in the best and fairest despite only playing fifteen games underlines how important he was.
The recent appointment of 21-year-old Callan Ward as a co-captain at GWS shows that not only did the Bulldogs lose a young gun who averaged 20 hard-won touches a game in 2011, they also lost a leader and arguably the player being groomed as their next skipper.
With his fourth placing in their Best and Fairest standings, he was one of only two players in the top-seven under the age of 28 (Griffen, at 25, was the other).
Yes, Matthew Boyd is a very good player, albeit lacking in class. Yes, Daniel Cross and Dale Morris are courageous and honest. And yes, Robert Murphy had a fine season at half-back. But none of these players are going to improve at their age, and pickings underneath these veterans are slim.
Compare their outlook to that of Richmond, which won only half a game less last year, and whose top seven players didn’t contain anyone over the age of 24!
Given those age profiles, which team would you rather be on?
The last point proves that the outlook for the ‘Dogs is grim, and not just for this season. AFL football is a winter sport, and the team from Melbourne’s west is in for a long, dark, cold time over the next half-decade.
Essendon is another team that I expect to slide. Although getting off to a flyer last year, making the final of the NAB Cup and sitting third after eight rounds, I believe their output from that point onwards is a truer reflection of their standing within the competition.
With a draw in 2012 that includes a savage finish to the season, I can see something similar happening again, except this time with no bonus of valuable finals experience at the end of it. From round one onwards, the Bombers play Geelong, Hawthorn, Adelaide away, North, Carlton, Richmond and Collingwood, each of whom I expect to finish above them. With the exception of the Tigers, they are all likely to be finalists.
It is widely known that Essendon lack midfield class outside of Jobe Watson, and I think this will be another year of James Hird finding out more about the young players on his list. David Myers and Kyle Reimers are entering their fifth and sixth seasons of AFL football without making a consistent mark.
The class of the ’09 draft has been a disappointment so far. Jake Melksham, Travis Colyer and Jake Carlisle were all top-30 picks from that year, and are all categorised as ‘below average’ in Champion Data’s rankings at this stage of their careers. Of this group, Carlisle looks the most promising, but having key position players is the one area where the Bombers are actually well stocked.
So in summary, Essendon fans can have no fear about planning holidays for this September (the Gold Coast is lovely in the spring), and Western Bulldogs supporters may look at spending their winters abroad in the coming years.
The outlook for them is bleaker than No. 1 ticket holder Julia Gillard’s future as Prime Minister.
Robert
Guest
Realistically i think if things go right we can finish 7-8 and if things go bad 10-12. We have a good core of experienced players that won't let us bottom out with some exciting youth. They will need to start putting it together for us to make the finals but i don't believe we will bottom out nor do we have to especially with our very contested gameplan. I can see its going to be a frustrating year for myself and other doggies supporters as i do think scoring wiill be a problem unless we can find a consitent goal scorer. Even against Geelong the other day we controlled the game for most part but struggled to put the score on the board. Gia will provide atleast 30-40. Jones, Dickson, Sherman, Grant, Dahlhaus all need to have consistent years and share the load. I really like the look of Dickson though and i feel he may surprise a few this year with his goal sense. My estimation is 7th-12th
Fitzy
Guest
Is it just me or is the first sign of Collingwoods wheels falling off taking place? Krakauer gone, Ben Macaffer, Didak, Brow, Johnson, O'Brien etc. Only one or two away from a 2011 Freo.
Johno
Guest
Nobody picking the pies to fall? Is the loss of Malthouse neglible? When Malthouse left West Coast at the end of '99 the Eagles fell to 13th place (7 spots) the following year. I for one think that the Pies will drop to 7/8th this year without Mick at the helm and having lost a few good players for small chunks of time. Jolly is injury prone in tha last part of his career and their defence is starting to show some cracks. Also notable that they have lost Mark Neeld and Scott Waters from the coaching panel. Yes they still have a lot of class, especially through the mid field, but they will be the most hunted scalp this year next to the Cats. The teams they meet twice are West Coast, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and Essendon - some tough asks there in those 10 games. Admittedly the Cats didn't suffer losing Ablett and Bomber (although those two and their relationship were probably the biggest problem from 2010 for the Cats).
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Well known twitter identity, The White Maggot, has just tweeted that Rudd is expected to challenge Gillard for the dogs' number 1 ticket holder.
Robert
Guest
I disagree, the reason the pies lost last years Grand Final was because Malthouse couldn't work out a plan b. He was very pigheaded in not changing the gameplan
Robert
Guest
The dogs backline looks fairly settled if Lake has a injury free year and can play some good footy. Don't be surprised if a youngster by the name of tom hill is our starting chb by the end of the year. Our midfield has good depth, with Boyd looking to be a massive chance for the brownlow. The main challenge i can see this year is scoring enough goals. Willl Jarrd Grant finally step up and prove himself, Will higgins do the same. The goal scoring will come down to the improvement of those two players as we know Gia will again prove a good goal kicker and Liam Jones will continue to announce to the footballing world he is going to be a star. Having no Barry Hall will help him.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Fitzy but even during that period, the Cats didn't finish lower than 13th (from memory).
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
It will be interesting to see how Collingwood reacts as the other top teams figure out the forward press. I have a lot more faith in Malthouse figuring out a Plan B on the fly than Buckley doing it.
D.Large
Guest
You just can't imagine the Saints being able to hang in there for another season and I agree that the Dons will be the other team to drop out. The Swans are the interesting one for me, wouldn't surprise me if they challenged for a top 4 or finished 10th.
D.Large
Guest
The Dogs are done, not only will they be shot mentally from the toll of the last few list, but the list is average. I would take the Tiges midfield and forwards over the Dogs, admittedly i would also rather GWS's backline to that of the Tiges.
Fitzy
Guest
Don't mean to disagree Cat but Geelong had no finals appearences between 1998 and 2003, during that time the club was 5 mil in debt and playing kids. I hope Smedts will be all you say he will, only a couple of stats on Saturday.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Bob, I saw the Dogs against GWS. I can easily see them as being worse than last year.
Bob
Guest
With Cooney, Lake, Hargrave, Higgins and eventually Morris all back fit hard to see the dogs being any worse than 2011.
Robert
Guest
Also to say Lids is a kid is laughable, i can then say Cooney and Griffen are both kids lol.......... Outside Cotchin, Martin and Reiwoldt the tiges have very little and are extremely overated. They lack depth and this is why hacks such as the pushup king gets a game. Dogs have lost Ward but drafted a higher class Ward clone in Clay Smith who is a supercoach steal this year
BigAl
Guest
I just hope there are as few blow-out results as possible ! - tends to be a bit of a blight on the game.
Robert
Guest
Please play the ball, not the man. Thanks, Roar Mods.
Robert
Guest
Will take great delight seeing the Dogs smash the Tigers once again this year. Tigers probably have the worst defence in the leauge and will struggle untill they fix this. Alex Rance is their big hope but is nothing sort of disgraceful. Think this year could be a bit tricky for the dogs with a new coach and trying to get them playing his style but the youth they have at the club is oustanding. Mix that with a group of good senior players makes a nice mix for 2013 on.
TW
Guest
Adelaide will play the GC and Giants twice - Should win all 4. They then have to find another 7 wins at home to get to 11 - Any other wins away will be a big bonus.
Adelaide will rise, I have them in the top eight based on an extremely favourable draw and expected improvement under Sanderson. Brisbane are actually quite honest for a poor team, and I expect them to finish ahead of the Dogs. Your last line is accurate, and all teams you mention there will improve again. I don't forsee great change at the top of the ladder this year.
Swampy - I was only writing about the two teams I will think fall the furthest. I do think the Saints will fall from the eight this year - I have them finishing ninth. I think WC's resurgence was based on a manic defensive press, and based on last weeks (admittedly slim) evidence, their intent has not diminished. Yes, LeCras will hurt, but is he a bigger loss to them than Ablett was supposed to be to Geelong? And yes, I do barrack for Richmond (well picked up on), but I actually think we'll finish 10th this year. It's just that when you're in the bottom half of the ladder, you want your best players to be young (Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Riewoldt, Vickery), rather than old like the Dogs.