The Roar
The Roar

Cameron Rose

Expert

Joined March 2012

1.44m

Views

724

Published

7.1k

Comments

I've never heard a conversation about footy or cricket that I haven't wanted to join in immediately. If you disagree with me, you'll be made to work very hard to change my mind!

Published

Comments

No big wins but recent Derby winners have still been competitive – Warning has won a couple of Group 3’s since, Extra Brut placed in a Mackinnon, Ace High won a Hill Stakes and was placed in several Group races, Prized Icon placed in a Chipping Norton and Ranvet among other decent runs, Tarzino won a Rosehill Guineas and performing well at stud, Preferment won Australia Cup, BMW and a Turnbull.

Derby Day at Flemington: Tips and previews for each race

Yep, give me Prix De Turn over the favourite in the first.

Barb Raider probably my best each-way special of the day in the Wakeful. Very confident. Risking the top two.

Could equally say the Everest is a gut-buster for 3yo’s around Home Affairs, and hard to back up in the Coolmore. Last two to try lost in the Coolmore further than they lost in the Everest. But he’s bloody easy to like at $11 or so, for sure.

I’m not sure Cascadian will win another race. Got his Doncaster, but is frankly a non-winner with too much weight in handicaps and not quite good enough for WFA.

Derby Day at Flemington: Tips and previews for each race

I’m with you. Hope you’re right.

Derby Day at Flemington: Tips and previews for each race

14 of those are!

Derby Day at Flemington: Tips and previews for each race

Agree on the whole in recent times, but I reckon this Saturday is a real throwback. Average field size of 16+ for the last five races on the card, so can’t complain about that. The Hotham has really thinned out given how much the Cup has. Carbine and Wakeful about the normal field sizes I’d suggest.

Derby Day at Flemington: Tips and previews for each race

Yeah, if they both run up to their best then they should fight it out, and connections are supremely confident, but I’m happy to bet around them and look foolish if I’m wrong.

Just reckon VE may have lost half a length or a length and I’m also not sure she loves the Melbourne way. Even her Caulfield Cup win, she went around that home turn like a drunken sailor. Just can’t see the Valley being her track at all.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

In WFA races horses are assigned weight simply based on their age and the distance the race is run.

You’ll notice in the Manikato (1200m) all the male horses five and older carrying 58.5, while in the Cox Plate (2040m) the male four year old carries 57.5 and all the males five and older have 59. The three year old male in the Manikato carries 53 while in the longer race it’s 49.5.

Handicaps are based purely on ratings.

Under each system, fillies and mares are given a 2kg weight relief against their male counterparts.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

Not sure if Portland Sky came up this prep, was disappointing both starts. Might be spelling already.

The allocation of Group 1 sprint races is all over the place in Vic and NSW. MV has too much of the same, and the Moir form didn’t stand up in the Everest, but the point is sound.

Yeah, the September Run form from last season looking a bit dodgy, but for a straight track specialist, they’ve done everything *but* run her down the straight. Odd campaign. I’ll stick Swat’s That at that price for now though.

Such an even race, there’s few you wouldn’t give a chance to and these MV sprints have a blanket over them usually. Will come down to pattern and who gets the breaks at the right time.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

Was his fourth win in a row that prep, so he was certainly in the zone. He did beat Behemoth and Gytrash that day, although they were nowhere near the horses they would become. The rest of the field was particularly weak.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

As in, WFA? The Tancred is the longest we have at 2400m.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

Mick Price didn’t think Extreme Warrior could hold a candle to Profiteer in the Blue Sapphire either! And I’ve heard Waller get it wrong between his own horses often enough, but we all know how hard they are to get right.

Zaaki could blow them away to be fair, but if he’s off his game, which I think he will be, Mo’unga can certainly beat him home.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

Yeah, I’m keen on Dalasan at what I think is enormous overs, and so it’s easy to like Mo’unga at the bigger price, albeit backed in now.

When the market opened yesterday, I actually thought those two and Captivant were three that stood out at overs. There’s enough against the three faves to make it hard to be confident on them. I’m happy to have a few specs at odds.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

Box them up, and that’s a first four that’s going to pay. Although that’s if they disregard Incentivise who will already be draped in the winners rug by the time they finish…

Caulfield Cup tips and preview

But was the inside the best ground that day? Winners came from middle and wider lanes in the straight, so perhaps added merit. I do expect young Waller horses to hold that form once they’ve proven they are competitive at the level.

I really like Heresy, the form out of that McNeil has stood up well over the course of the spring.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

Nature Strip, Eduardo, Gytrash love it without question.

I think The Inferno doesn’t have a problem.

Wild Ruler and Libertini hate it.

Classique Legend and Masked Crusader are okay at the 6-7 range, but not sure how wet they really want it. Same with Trekking, he’d prefer drier.

Embracer can’t win regardless of conditions.

Lost and Running appears to have been too good for opposition regardless of conditions in his short career, so he’s still an unknown at this level for mine, but if you like him I don’t think the size of bet needs to change, put it that way.

The Everest runner-by-runner preview and tips

Yep, seems it will only fall after the last

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

Yeah, at first I was a bit worried about gate one, but agree, I can’t see him being unlucky. The ones from behind him will fan out wide in the straight, and natural gaps should appear between the on-speed horses. Think he can do it.

The Everest runner-by-runner preview and tips

Definitely a risk. She probably settles last four or five in the run from that gate, so if they burn along I doubt anything will be stronger late.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

Yeah, and El Patroness has franked that form against the boys. They’re always thereabouts when they pay those late entry fees for the big races aren’t they. Should have put her in my four picks upon reflection.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

Nice to hear bit of support for a rough selection, we’ll be giving each other virtual high five’s if Von Trapp gets up! As you say, we’ll need a lot to go right, but I’m sure she’s got the ability and the stamina.

Yep, wouldn’t talk anyone out of Sky Lab. Looking at it this morning, I’m amazed at how many are riding so over. Hope connections know what they’re doing.

Randwick Super Saturday: Group 1 previews and tips

That is a great stat if accurate.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

Thanks DTM, I actually think the team element of AFL is underrated if anything. With NBA and NFL becoming more prominent, where the superstars have a disproportianate say, it skews people’s thinking.

Couldn’t help myself. 😱

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

Every grand final has “a moment” that lives on in the zeitgeist, something that can be replayed in a few seconds in years to come, and for mine this one will be Petracca’s Daicos goal.

But the blitzkrieg on the whole will be long rememberd.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

Wash your mouth out with soap Dingo. What a disgraceful slur on my character!

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

It wasn’t wrong of Buckley to give Moore a go forward this year to mix things up and try something different, but he needed to make the move back long before he did – it should have been done at half time of the West Coast game after Darling and Allen combined for six goals in the second quarter while Moore was getting cold up the other end.

Most key forwards would be better key backs, because the latter is easier to play. Naughton has been a very good forward though.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

close