The Roar
The Roar

The Roar

Cameron Rose

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Joined March 2012

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I've never heard a conversation about footy or cricket that I haven't wanted to join in immediately. If you disagree with me, you'll be made to work very hard to change my mind!

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Yeah, if they both run up to their best then they should fight it out, and connections are supremely confident, but I’m happy to bet around them and look foolish if I’m wrong.

Just reckon VE may have lost half a length or a length and I’m also not sure she loves the Melbourne way. Even her Caulfield Cup win, she went around that home turn like a drunken sailor. Just can’t see the Valley being her track at all.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

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4d

In WFA races horses are assigned weight simply based on their age and the distance the race is run.

You’ll notice in the Manikato (1200m) all the male horses five and older carrying 58.5, while in the Cox Plate (2040m) the male four year old carries 57.5 and all the males five and older have 59. The three year old male in the Manikato carries 53 while in the longer race it’s 49.5.

Handicaps are based purely on ratings.

Under each system, fillies and mares are given a 2kg weight relief against their male counterparts.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

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3d

Not sure if Portland Sky came up this prep, was disappointing both starts. Might be spelling already.

The allocation of Group 1 sprint races is all over the place in Vic and NSW. MV has too much of the same, and the Moir form didn’t stand up in the Everest, but the point is sound.

Yeah, the September Run form from last season looking a bit dodgy, but for a straight track specialist, they’ve done everything *but* run her down the straight. Odd campaign. I’ll stick Swat’s That at that price for now though.

Such an even race, there’s few you wouldn’t give a chance to and these MV sprints have a blanket over them usually. Will come down to pattern and who gets the breaks at the right time.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

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3d

Was his fourth win in a row that prep, so he was certainly in the zone. He did beat Behemoth and Gytrash that day, although they were nowhere near the horses they would become. The rest of the field was particularly weak.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

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3d

As in, WFA? The Tancred is the longest we have at 2400m.

Group 1 Manikato Stakes: Preview and tips

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3d

Mick Price didn’t think Extreme Warrior could hold a candle to Profiteer in the Blue Sapphire either! And I’ve heard Waller get it wrong between his own horses often enough, but we all know how hard they are to get right.

Zaaki could blow them away to be fair, but if he’s off his game, which I think he will be, Mo’unga can certainly beat him home.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

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4d

Yeah, I’m keen on Dalasan at what I think is enormous overs, and so it’s easy to like Mo’unga at the bigger price, albeit backed in now.

When the market opened yesterday, I actually thought those two and Captivant were three that stood out at overs. There’s enough against the three faves to make it hard to be confident on them. I’m happy to have a few specs at odds.

Cox Plate runner-by-runner preview and tips

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4d

Box them up, and that’s a first four that’s going to pay. Although that’s if they disregard Incentivise who will already be draped in the winners rug by the time they finish…

Caulfield Cup tips and preview

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1w

But was the inside the best ground that day? Winners came from middle and wider lanes in the straight, so perhaps added merit. I do expect young Waller horses to hold that form once they’ve proven they are competitive at the level.

I really like Heresy, the form out of that McNeil has stood up well over the course of the spring.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

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2w

Nature Strip, Eduardo, Gytrash love it without question.

I think The Inferno doesn’t have a problem.

Wild Ruler and Libertini hate it.

Classique Legend and Masked Crusader are okay at the 6-7 range, but not sure how wet they really want it. Same with Trekking, he’d prefer drier.

Embracer can’t win regardless of conditions.

Lost and Running appears to have been too good for opposition regardless of conditions in his short career, so he’s still an unknown at this level for mine, but if you like him I don’t think the size of bet needs to change, put it that way.

The Everest runner-by-runner preview and tips

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2w

Yep, seems it will only fall after the last

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

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2w

Yeah, at first I was a bit worried about gate one, but agree, I can’t see him being unlucky. The ones from behind him will fan out wide in the straight, and natural gaps should appear between the on-speed horses. Think he can do it.

The Everest runner-by-runner preview and tips

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2w

Definitely a risk. She probably settles last four or five in the run from that gate, so if they burn along I doubt anything will be stronger late.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

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2w

Yeah, and El Patroness has franked that form against the boys. They’re always thereabouts when they pay those late entry fees for the big races aren’t they. Should have put her in my four picks upon reflection.

Thousand Guineas: Group 1 tips and preview

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2w

Nice to hear bit of support for a rough selection, we’ll be giving each other virtual high five’s if Von Trapp gets up! As you say, we’ll need a lot to go right, but I’m sure she’s got the ability and the stamina.

Yep, wouldn’t talk anyone out of Sky Lab. Looking at it this morning, I’m amazed at how many are riding so over. Hope connections know what they’re doing.

Randwick Super Saturday: Group 1 previews and tips

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3w

That is a great stat if accurate.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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AFL
 
4w

Thanks DTM, I actually think the team element of AFL is underrated if anything. With NBA and NFL becoming more prominent, where the superstars have a disproportianate say, it skews people’s thinking.

Couldn’t help myself. 😱

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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4w

Every grand final has “a moment” that lives on in the zeitgeist, something that can be replayed in a few seconds in years to come, and for mine this one will be Petracca’s Daicos goal.

But the blitzkrieg on the whole will be long rememberd.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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4w

Wash your mouth out with soap Dingo. What a disgraceful slur on my character!

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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AFL
 
4w

It wasn’t wrong of Buckley to give Moore a go forward this year to mix things up and try something different, but he needed to make the move back long before he did – it should have been done at half time of the West Coast game after Darling and Allen combined for six goals in the second quarter while Moore was getting cold up the other end.

Most key forwards would be better key backs, because the latter is easier to play. Naughton has been a very good forward though.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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4w

This all feels a bit harsh on Naughton. Not many attack the ball like he does, creating goals for his small forwards by crashings packs and putting on tackle pressure, when he doesn’t mark it and kick them himself.

'It takes an entire team': The unsung heroes of Melbourne's premiership

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4w

I’m with you in that we need a drastic reduction in them, but I’m not opposed to this being a Group 1, given we only have two 1000m G1’s in Aus. One in the spring and one in the autumn, I’m okay with that.

Yeah, Profiteer one of the three key hopes for me. I won’t fall over if Wild Ruler wins, but not sure he’s up to Group 1 WFA level.

Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley: Group 1 tips and preview

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Sep

Some good points here, and always great to celebrate fresh blood in the training ranks.

We’ll see what happens on Saturday, but I’ll probably need a bit more convincing depending on what he does in a five horse field. Give me Incentivize as the better horse right now, and I’ll be backing him over Zaaki if he wins the Caulfield Cup as I expect and backs up in the Cox Plate.

Is Zaaki a touch overrated? Underwood Stakes preview and tips

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Sep

Yes, but the game was won when Max kicked his four third quarter goals, so they didn’t *need* him to hit the scoreboard in the prelim either.

'A sense of destiny': Demons to finally deliver a flag after 57 years

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AFL
 
Sep

Yes, good recall CloudRunner. Yeah, I wasn’t impressed by that game, albeit I haven’t revisited.

My main contention is that a close match doesn’t necessarily make a classic, and I just felt it was incredibly error-riddled. Most of Collingwood’s early lead was due to calamitous unforced errors from West Coast rather than any Pie brilliance. And then similar the other way when the Eagles charged – the Pies were really poor for long periods. It wasn’t outstanding football. What I love is high stakes, enormous pressure and players rising above it to perform heroic, courageous and skillful acts, not just the lesser of mistakes. Geelong v Melbourne in Round 23 was a good example I thought – the Cats ripped the game apart with brilliance, and then the Dees last quarter was outstanding.

Maybe I’m being too harsh, but that’s my view. That said, I’d rather a one goal grand final in whatever form it takes than a comfortable 5-6 goal win for either team!

'A sense of destiny': Demons to finally deliver a flag after 57 years

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Sep
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