West Coast made a mockery of pre-season predictions last year, but what are they capable of in 2012? Let’s take a look.
The Recap
Last year: 17-5, 4th, lost preliminary final
Best and fairest: Darren Glass
Leading goal kicker: Josh Kennedy (59)
Key additions: Josh Hill (Western Bulldogs), Brad Dick (Collingwood)
Key losses: Brad Ebert
Analysis
It was one of the most remarkable turnarounds in AFL history. The Eagles surprised everyone last year by going from wooden spooners to top four in one season.
Now that the calendar has flipped over to 2012, though, the question turns to whether West Coast can back it up.
There’s no doubting they earned that preliminary final berth last year, but are they able to achieve that two years in a row?
The Eagles had a relatively healthy run with injuries last season. Now, already we’ve seen Mark LeCras go down with an ACL injury.
The 2011 campaign was also built around lots of pressure, high intensity football and keeping the ball inside the forward half at all costs. Given West Coast travel more than any other team, maintaining that may prove difficult.
For all the question marks, the Eagles do have a relatively young list. A few lowly finishes netted them with a number of top twenty draft picks and many key figures have their best football ahead of them, including Nic Naitanui (21), Luke Shuey (21), Jack Darling (19), Andrew Gaff (19) and Scott Selwood (21).
And while that high intensity game plan may be hard to maintain, it must be said the Eagles were pretty bloody good at it to start with – they ranked third for time in forward half, second for applying pressure in the forward half and had the third best contested possession differential.
Defensively, the Eagles don’t have many household names. By conceding 1715 points in the home and away season – on par with fellow finalists Carlton and Sydney – the back six were able to do what they had to do, however.
Darren Glass is all class, with his return from injury last year being one of the key catalysts for the club’s turnaround. Joining him is the ever-improving Eric McKenzie, who has in the past two years cemented his spot as a regular. He was responsible for keeping Travis Cloke to one goal in the qualifying final.
Of the remaining defenders to see regular action, the age range is perfect. Sam Butler is 26, Beau Waters 25, Shannon Hurn 24, Will Schofield 23 and Ashley Smith 21. Knocking at the door is 20 year-old Brad Sheppard.
The midfield is where the Eagles are at their strongest. In Dean Cox and Naitanui, they have the best ruck combination in the league giving them first use of the footy. Their average of 50 hitouts a game last season was five more than the next best team.
The experienced trio of Matthew Priddis, Andrew Embley and Daniel Kerr played a huge role in last year’s resurgence. Priddis and Embley both made the All Australian squad. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Kerr in 2011 was, according to coach John Worsfold, “fighting to get back to AFL conditioning.”
After that, the Eagles aren’t done. There’s still the kids.
Shuey is coming off his first full season and is on track to become a star. Gaff had an impressive debut year. Selwood thrived against some quality opponents and even recorded the highest pressure ranking in the league last season. Chris Masten and Koby Stevens have upside, also.
As a group, there’s undoubtedly improvement left in them. How much of that can be realised in 2012 will be important.
Up forward, the loss of LeCras will hurt. He kicked 47 goals last year and has the ability to turn a game on its head.
Josh Hill has been brought in from the Western Bulldogs and Gerrick Weedon put in an impressive performance in the first round of the NAB Cup, so there’s two players in contention to take his spot in the team. But replacing him and his impact will be impossible.
The leading goal kicker was Josh Kennedy with 59 and thankfully he’s still around. Darling was another Eagle to have an impressive debut season, applying plenty of pressure and kicking as many goals as anyone drafted in 2010.
With Kennedy, Darling, Quinten Lynch and a resting ruckman sometimes all roaming the forward line at once, it can be a fairly tall forward line. However, the Eagles only ranked ninth for marks inside the forward 50. The real danger lies when the ball spills out from the marking contest.
Overall, you can see improvement occurring down back and in the middle. The forward line will struggle in LeCras’ absence but it’s not the end of the world.
Perhaps the Eagles’ season really does come down to how long they can keep their pressure-filled style of footy up.
Recent history suggests that after the first year spent as a top four side or preliminary finalists, the next season usually involves consolidation or a bit of a drop-off.
St Kilda (2004-05), Geelong (2004-05), the Western Bulldogs (2008-09), Collingwood (2007-08) and Hawthorn (2008-09) are all examples of teams that followed this trajectory.
There is definitely room for improvement, but perhaps it’s a bit premature to get carried away just yet.
Prediction: 4th-6th
m0nty’s Fantasy Picks
FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fool’s gold (avoid at all costs).
Keeper: Everyone likes big Dean Cox. He managed to survive previous injury, Father Time and the rise of Nic Naitanui last year to top the ruck averages yet again, and despite hitting 30 years of age, it’s a brave fantasy coach who would bet against him repeating the dose.
Cash cow: Koby Stevens is the name on the tips of Eagle fans’ lips, looking impressive in preseason after several injury-riddled years. The departure of Brad Ebert and the continued mediocrity of Chris Masten will give him opportunity in midfield.
Fool’s gold: Beau Waters is a popular fantasy choice to rebound from elbow problems to his start-worthy 2010 numbers. His role is not the same, however, and he could be a big bust as he will continue to throw his body around risking suspension and impact injury.
West Coast Eagles photo gallery
First five fixtures
Round 1 vs. Western Bulldogs, Etihad
Round 2 vs. Melbourne, Patersons
Round 3 vs. GWS Giants, Blacktown
Round 4 vs. Hawthorn, Patersons
Round 5 vs. Richmond, Etihad
This article was brought to you by Foxtel.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Well spotted, Toad. Apologies for the error, it's now all fixed.
Toad of Toad Hall
Guest
BEAU WILKES did not play with West Coast in 2011; he was de-listed the previous season, and played for Claremont in the WAFL. It might be a good idea to remove him from the list.
brendan
Guest
Havent had a close look at there draw but if there up and about early in the season and win nine of there home games they may be a top four chance again.Dont forget that last year they led eventual Premiers Geelong by about nine goals at one stage.Losing Lecras is a big blow for them interesting to see how they replace him.I wouldnt want to play them in a prelim in Perth especially if Melbourne weather has been cold and theres has been hot.iI am looking forward to this season as i think there isnt an outright flag favourite but five or six sides round about the mark auguring well for a great season.
TW
Guest
Re posting above - Ooops substitute Mandurah for Bunbury. The ground at Mandurah in the Peel district south of Perth has just had a heap of money spent on it and is the home ground of WAFL team Peel. Crowd will still be big.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Don't have team totals, but Cox had 7 a game last year, Naitanui had 4.9, Sandilands had 7.5.
TW
Guest
The mighty Eagles will IMHO finish about 6th - They will win just about all of their home games and need to get a few wins away. I think their older brigade may start to slow down a bit - However that particular group had been training seperately/nursed prior to xmas break with a much lighter load - That experimental system worked last year. We are tipping Woosha will run 3 ruckmen in some games with young Scotty Lycett on the interchange. Lycett coming along very nicely but early days. Coxy and NicNat very mobile at times. Still think we need more explosive pace in the middle. (Never have replaced Cuz yet) Their press is up and about early in the NAB. They really pressured the Dockers last Sunday. They play Port this weekend down at Bunbury - A big crowd will rock up to this longtime country Aussie Rules stronghold.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Oops double-up
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Do you have the stats on hitouts to advantage?
The Black Ship
Guest
sounds good..all makes for exciting footy..footies back,and so is the passion!!!
Johno
Guest
Hey - no dispute on what happenned in 2011, just stating that I think Griffin and Sandi, if they get game time together would push NN and Cox as a ruck combo - stats indicate this too seeing as combined they average 59.9 ... but. without either being on the park together for significant times this is meaningless. Head to head last year WC v Freo, in the only derby Sandi played, he got 45 taps to a combined 39 form Cox and NN. He played that game sans Clarke or Griff. As a ruckman for sheer number of taps he is unrivalled in the comp and with a decent back up for once in his career who knows what might happen. They are an unknown quantity as a team. However it will play out this year whether Lyon gives Griff the game time he deserves. Will also be very interesting, although highly doubtful, if Griff, Sandi and Clarke all play in the same team together given Clarkes agility.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
As I mentioned in the article, the Eagles had 50 hitouts a game last year, five more than the next best team. That's a considerable enough gap to suggest they have the best ruck department in the comp. For the record, Freo ranked 7th in the comp for hitouts, with 42 a game.
Johno
Guest
NicNat is being rated I feel on potential rather than what he has actually put out 4 quarters on the park. Griffins efforts in 2011 covering for Sandi clearly beat NicNats over 4 quarters and you could well argue that Zac Clarke stats outshone NN as well. NN has the biggest scope for improvement of the three but he doesn't quite know the game yet (neither does Clarke mind you). No more injuries to either team and both should be firmly ensconced in the 8 come round 22. But you never know when you'll lose a key player ala Lenny Hayes for the saints in 2011 to stuff up a season. Maybe 2012 for the first ever finals derby.
The Black Ship
Guest
coulda,shoulda,woulda,oughta..? sandilands/griffen might do this and might do that if only lyons would do this and not that..? meanwhile in the real world, cox and nicnat are arguably the best ruck combo at present PLAYING! also i think given the niggling injuries and targeting of cox(and NN),we have Lycett looking ready to stand in this season-another surprise package methinks...get the feeling masten may fire up this year-was starting to fire late last season,otherwise theres stevens,swift and sheppard..i think its all good, even Leccas injury adds excitement in that we get to see someone else stand up in the meantime...this seasons possible injuries aside,theres a lot to look forward to,certainly good viewing ahead... and Freo should be firing on all pistons,with a near to full deck of players,a new coach,Sumich,(travelling the same interstate mileage as WCE),we should be back to crackerjack derbies this season,and likely finals action for Freo??..certainly no more excuses..they could be giantkillers?
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Cheers for the comment, Johno. For all those keeping score at home - because I'm sure we can all agree it makes a huge difference - West Coast travel 55,630km this season, compared to Fremantle who travel 55,580km.
Johno
Guest
Good article .... except for 1 - Travel more than any other team .... except Fremantle who travel the same. 2 - Best ruck combination ...... when Sandilands isn't fit to take the park. I would say the Sandilands / Griffen combination (if only Lyon is smart enough to field them together) would edge Cox / Natanui until Natanui can garner more than 12 possessions a game. Other than that, yes the WC Eagles will ... should .... be top 6, further injuries not forthcoming. But you do get the feel that the teams success does rest heavily with Cox and Kennedy. Ebert is not seen by the faithfull as a huge loss as Shuey and Gaff look the goods - jury out on Stevens, and I bet the Eagles are annoyed that GWS went after Palmer and not Masten.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
You missed Hurn in your list, the man is a very dangerous player for linking defence and attack. You know, the guy with the rocket assisted kick! Personally, I think we'll do alright. Top 4 is never assured for anyone, the fighting is always intense, but I think we are up to the challenge. 17-5 again would be an amazing achievement to repeat and I hope we can give it a red-hot go. Our reserves looked strong in the NAB kick-and-giggle. Although Darling seemed to slow down as the year went on, I think this had a bit to do with other teams picking up on his threat and assigning more resources to keep him quieter. This kept his numbers a bit down but also opened up holes for other players to exploit.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Don't be like that, stabpass, the Eagles are Love :D Uh, and ongoing problematic narcotics influences but its not like that stops musicians from being entertaining!
The Black Ship
Guest
i tend to think theyll be hovering around the top 6,..to improve on last year by hitting no.3 would be fantastic..although Woosha is aiming for 1st or 2nd,and why wouldnt you as a coach..but injuries and footy gods permitting,theres an awful lot of upside,given what they achieved last year,anythings possible?
stabpass
Guest
For mine, they over achieved last year, and i am not that fond of them, but the Eagles under Worsfold deserve respect.
TomC
Guest
I'm a bit dubious as to whether the Eagles will be able to get the same output from their older brigade (Cox, Embley, Kerr, Glass) that they did in 2011. And while there's an enormous amount of talent in the kids, many of them (Naitanui, Shuey, Darling) may need another season to step up another level. So I think WCE might find themselves in a holding pattern in 2012. I think they'll struggle to match last season's amazing 17-5 record, but I'd have them as certainties for the top eight.