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West Coast made a mockery of pre-season predictions last year, but what are they capable of in 2012? Let’s take a look.
The Recap
Last year: 17-5, 4th, lost preliminary final
Best and fairest: Darren Glass
Leading goal kicker: Josh Kennedy (59)
Key additions: Josh Hill (Western Bulldogs), Brad Dick (Collingwood)
Key losses: Brad Ebert
Analysis
It was one of the most remarkable turnarounds in AFL history. The Eagles surprised everyone last year by going from wooden spooners to top four in one season.
Now that the calendar has flipped over to 2012, though, the question turns to whether West Coast can back it up.
There’s no doubting they earned that preliminary final berth last year, but are they able to achieve that two years in a row?
The Eagles had a relatively healthy run with injuries last season. Now, already we’ve seen Mark LeCras go down with an ACL injury.
The 2011 campaign was also built around lots of pressure, high intensity football and keeping the ball inside the forward half at all costs. Given West Coast travel more than any other team, maintaining that may prove difficult.
For all the question marks, the Eagles do have a relatively young list. A few lowly finishes netted them with a number of top twenty draft picks and many key figures have their best football ahead of them, including Nic Naitanui (21), Luke Shuey (21), Jack Darling (19), Andrew Gaff (19) and Scott Selwood (21).
And while that high intensity game plan may be hard to maintain, it must be said the Eagles were pretty bloody good at it to start with – they ranked third for time in forward half, second for applying pressure in the forward half and had the third best contested possession differential.
Defensively, the Eagles don’t have many household names. By conceding 1715 points in the home and away season – on par with fellow finalists Carlton and Sydney – the back six were able to do what they had to do, however.
Darren Glass is all class, with his return from injury last year being one of the key catalysts for the club’s turnaround. Joining him is the ever-improving Eric McKenzie, who has in the past two years cemented his spot as a regular. He was responsible for keeping Travis Cloke to one goal in the qualifying final.
Of the remaining defenders to see regular action, the age range is perfect. Sam Butler is 26, Beau Waters 25, Shannon Hurn 24, Will Schofield 23 and Ashley Smith 21. Knocking at the door is 20 year-old Brad Sheppard.
The midfield is where the Eagles are at their strongest. In Dean Cox and Naitanui, they have the best ruck combination in the league giving them first use of the footy. Their average of 50 hitouts a game last season was five more than the next best team.
The experienced trio of Matthew Priddis, Andrew Embley and Daniel Kerr played a huge role in last year’s resurgence. Priddis and Embley both made the All Australian squad. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Kerr in 2011 was, according to coach John Worsfold, “fighting to get back to AFL conditioning.”
After that, the Eagles aren’t done. There’s still the kids.
Shuey is coming off his first full season and is on track to become a star. Gaff had an impressive debut year. Selwood thrived against some quality opponents and even recorded the highest pressure ranking in the league last season. Chris Masten and Koby Stevens have upside, also.
As a group, there’s undoubtedly improvement left in them. How much of that can be realised in 2012 will be important.
Up forward, the loss of LeCras will hurt. He kicked 47 goals last year and has the ability to turn a game on its head.
Josh Hill has been brought in from the Western Bulldogs and Gerrick Weedon put in an impressive performance in the first round of the NAB Cup, so there’s two players in contention to take his spot in the team. But replacing him and his impact will be impossible.
The leading goal kicker was Josh Kennedy with 59 and thankfully he’s still around. Darling was another Eagle to have an impressive debut season, applying plenty of pressure and kicking as many goals as anyone drafted in 2010.
With Kennedy, Darling, Quinten Lynch and a resting ruckman sometimes all roaming the forward line at once, it can be a fairly tall forward line. However, the Eagles only ranked ninth for marks inside the forward 50. The real danger lies when the ball spills out from the marking contest.
Overall, you can see improvement occurring down back and in the middle. The forward line will struggle in LeCras’ absence but it’s not the end of the world.
Perhaps the Eagles’ season really does come down to how long they can keep their pressure-filled style of footy up.
Recent history suggests that after the first year spent as a top four side or preliminary finalists, the next season usually involves consolidation or a bit of a drop-off.
St Kilda (2004-05), Geelong (2004-05), the Western Bulldogs (2008-09), Collingwood (2007-08) and Hawthorn (2008-09) are all examples of teams that followed this trajectory.
There is definitely room for improvement, but perhaps it’s a bit premature to get carried away just yet.
Prediction: 4th-6th
m0nty’s Fantasy Picks
FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fool’s gold (avoid at all costs).
Keeper: Everyone likes big Dean Cox. He managed to survive previous injury, Father Time and the rise of Nic Naitanui last year to top the ruck averages yet again, and despite hitting 30 years of age, it’s a brave fantasy coach who would bet against him repeating the dose.
Cash cow: Koby Stevens is the name on the tips of Eagle fans’ lips, looking impressive in preseason after several injury-riddled years. The departure of Brad Ebert and the continued mediocrity of Chris Masten will give him opportunity in midfield.
Fool’s gold: Beau Waters is a popular fantasy choice to rebound from elbow problems to his start-worthy 2010 numbers. His role is not the same, however, and he could be a big bust as he will continue to throw his body around risking suspension and impact injury.
West Coast Eagles photo gallery
First five fixtures
Round 1 vs. Western Bulldogs, Etihad
Round 2 vs. Melbourne, Patersons
Round 3 vs. GWS Giants, Blacktown
Round 4 vs. Hawthorn, Patersons
Round 5 vs. Richmond, Etihad
This article was brought to you by Foxtel.
