2012 AFL season preview: Sydney Swans

The Sydney Swans have been a regular fixture of the top eight in recent times, but what’s in store for 2012? Is this the year they rise up or fall away?

The Recap

Last year: 12-9-1, 7th, lost semi final
Best and fairest: Adam Goodes
Leading goal kicker: Adam Goodes (41)
Key additions: Tony Armstrong (Adelaide), Mitch Morton (Richmond), Tommy Walsh (St Kilda)
Key losses: Daniel Bradshaw, Craig Bolton, Tadhg Kennelly, Lewis Johnston

Analysis

Sydney’s first year under John Longmire saw a continuation of what we’ve come to expect from the Swans. Each week they proved tough opposition and once again they were a dangerous side in September.

Some impressive young talent, like forward Sam Reid, defender Alex Johnson and midfielder Luke Parker, once again emerged.

The veterans continued to deliver as well, with Adam Goodes winning the best and fairest, and Ryan O’Keefe, Jude Bolton, Marty Mattner, Rhyce Shaw and Ted Richards barely missing a game.

Unsurprisingly, this off-season was typical Sydney as well. Not only was it spent largely outside of the spotlight, once again the club sought to replenish their list with unwanted talent from other clubs – this year they picked up Mitch Morton, Tony Armstrong and Tommy Walsh for practically nothing.

The Swans can be considered a risky team to get excited about, as they have a total of six players 29 or older. But if the likes of Reid, Johnson, Parker, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta and Dan Hannebery can simultaneously take their games to another level, surely just about anything is possible this season.

The scary thing is such a scenario is not implausible.

At the start of last year, defender Nick Malceski said the Swans were aiming to become the best defensive team in the league. They didn’t get there in 2011, with six teams conceding less points at the end of the premiership season.

Looking beyond the surface, it’s understandable that they fell short. The back line suffered a disrupted start to the year, with Craig Bolton retiring and a number of regulars (the now-retired Tadgh Kennelly, Lewis Roberts-Thomson and Nick Malceski) not appearing until Rounds 6-9.

A more settled year is on the cards, and players like Johnson and Nick Smith can improve. There does, however, remain one important issue that needs to be addressed, and that’s finding someone to take down the competition’s power forwards.

Travis Cloke and Buddy Franklin both registered six-goal hauls against the Swans last year. In the final against Hawthorn, Franklin and David Hale had six between them. To step up, these are teams Sydney need to beat – but at the moment, they concede a lot of ground by not being able to shut down such influential players.

Another unknown is whether the important Malceski can regain form and consistency after his second LARS surgery last year.

The midfield unit gets the job done, with a healthy mix of star talent, honest footballers and young kids on the rise. At the top of the list is Goodes and O’Keefe. At 32 and 31 respectively, we may see their time up forward increase, but it does seem like they still have plenty to offer.

Players like Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh and Jude Bolton bridge the gap between the stars and kids. Craig Bird last year cemented his spot as the midfield’s main tagger. All are great footballers to have.

Then there’s Keiren Jack, who had an injury affected season following his best and fairest in 2010. There’s Hannebery, who can improve on his numbers last year, which were merely on par with his output from that Rising Star award-winning season a year earlier.

There’s Rohan, who’s shown plenty despite not yet playing more than nine games in a season. There’s Jetta, who’s trained alongside Jack all summer and has looked good in pre-season games so far.

There’s Parker, who looked alright in his debut year. There’s father son selection Tom Mitchell, who’s very highly rated.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of young talent that can step up and have big years.

In the ruck, Shane Mumford is well on his way to being one of the competition’s elite ruckmen. A break with injury and a form slump mid-season last year hurt his credentials for such a title, but a full pre-season has him set for a big year.

Up forward, a lot of attention is starting to focus on young Reid, who has shown plenty of potential in patches during his career thus far. He led the Swans with 45 contested marks last year but his goal kicking let him down, finishing with a tally of 22 goals and 26 behinds. It might be best to temper our expectations a bit for now.

Goodes led the way with 41 majors last year, which is an impressive return for a part-time forward. The concern with this stat is that while the Swans do have plenty of good midfielders that can be rested up forward, you’d want to see greater output from within the actual forward line.

To address this you look at players like Jesse White, who had a poor year but at 24 there’s still time to turn the corner. You look at Morton, who could potentially join the list of recycled players that have thrived at the Swans. Same goes for Matt Spangher, who missed most of last year with injury.

There’s also 2010 first round pick Jed Lamb to consider and maybe, just maybe, this is the year Trent Dennis-Lane converts form in the reserves into consistency in the seniors.

Among these players, though, it’s hard to get too excited about one of them truly stepping up. We shall see though.

The Swans do have a bit of an ageing list, but the important thing is the kids are coming through.

Another year in the lower half of the eight beckons, but watch out if Goodes and O’Keefe stay fit and the young brigade in the middle have a massive year.

Prediction: 4th-7th

m0nty’s Fantasy Picks

FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fools gold (avoid at all costs).

Keeper: There is nothing wrong with either Adam Goodes or Ryan O’Keefe as dependable, healthy, low-end keepers. History has shown Goodes to be a poor starter, and ROK is set to miss Round 1, but both can be rocks of your fantasy forward line.

Cash cow: Tom Mitchell is a ball magnet like his father Barry, just the sort of inside grunt player the Swans love to draft. They will be keen to parade a rare father/son selection early doors.

Fool’s gold: Tony Armstrong moving to the Swans could be as underwhelming for fantasy purposes as Richard Tambling moving to Adelaide. Also, Tommy Walsh is getting a lot of smiling eyes turned his way, but key forwards are often not fantasy accumulators and the Irishman is not a natural scorer.

Sydney Swans photo gallery

First five fixtures

Round 1 vs. GWS Giants, ANZ
Round 2 vs. Fremantle, SCG
Round 3 vs. Port Adelaide, AAMI
Round 4 vs. North Melbourne, SCG
Round 5 vs. Hawthorn, Aurora

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