First round not an indicator of upcoming season

Last week I read an article written by Dave Gallop. He said he had spoken with all the coaches, who told him “this is the toughest season yet”.

Well of course they all said that when they have no idea how each team will perform against each other. It’s round one! Nobody knows what teams look like until at least round five when we have a clear idea of what the table looks like.

The opening round is a write off. Nothing that happens in round one is indicative of the rest of the season. Teams are just getting to know each other and it shows on the field. I can point out multiple occasions in matches where teams looked lost, tired or just plain confused on the field.

Sure, it’s easy to say that Parramatta, South Sydney and Canberra are all going to be terrible this year, but where is the proof of that? While they all lost, they each only lost by less than two tries.

Will the Warriors, Sharks and Newcastle struggle this year? Two of these teams lost in golden point. The other fought back well, only losing in the dying minutes.

Even the winners might be re-thinking certain things. if you watched the highlight reels, you’d probably think the ladder-leading Titans are the team to beat because they put 18 points on the Cowboys. But the Cowboys made 28 errors, had a 46 percent completion rate and made 100 more tackles than the Titans. That victory doesn’t show that the Titans are the team to beat, it shows you that the Cowboys were easy beats.

The same could be said about Melbourne’s efforts against Canberra. Melbourne were very lucky that Billy Slater helped them salvage the two points. They were totally unprepared for Canberra and the weather didn’t help matters either. You’ll see a different Melbourne side next Sunday against South Sydney.

Note, I am not saying that round one is useless because two points is two points no matter what round you earn it. I’m saying that nobody ever won the grand final based on how well they went in round one.

If anything, it is normally the polar opposite. In round one last year, the following teams lost: Brisbane, Warriors, Manly and the West Tigers. All of those teams played finals footy in 2011. Actually they were part of the final six. The Warriors only won three of their first five matches.

The big difference between round one this year and last year was the scorelines. Most of the wins came after grinding away at the opposition’s defence or cashing in your luck. Thus we end up with two games settled by a field goal and four by a converted try.

This probably makes people think that David Gallop was right with his ‘the hardest season to pick’ malarky. It’s more about some teams being underdone (like Manly who have been globetrotting and barely played a full game together), torrential rainfall in New South Wales and Queensland and the fact that we started the season earlier than previous years.

None of that stuff matters now because round one is over. It was the perfect time for teams to find out where the kinks in the line-ups are. It’s perfect to give life to those structured plays you’ve been training for in the pre season.

It’s the best round to try something different and see if it works. Think about the 2010 Roosters squad who started Todd Carney at fullback in round one. It was different and it didn’t work. At the end of the year, they were playing in the grand final.

If your team lost this weekend, then use that experience to know that something is going to change. Players will return from injury or suspension and this will be the catalyst for change. Maybe things won’t get better right away but good things will happen eventually which will turn the season around.

If your team won this round then ask yourself if that performance could be enough for them to make the finals. I’m betting it wasn’t, considering how close every game was. Consider Monday night. The Roosters don’t want to be relying on last minute comebacks every week.

Playing games where you are trying to recover in the dying seconds is always exciting for the fans but is super painful for the players and coaches.

Overall, it was an exciting round of footy. Exciting tries from Shaun Johnson’s, Anthony Minichello and Daly Cherry-Evans. What about James Graham quietly performing 51 tackles in 66 minutes of playing time?

And who didn’t see Shaun Fensom miss one tackle but make 62 others.

These are just a few of the reasons I’m so happy that rugby league is back.