With the Six Nations over, attention in the northern hemisphere is now on the upcoming mid-year internationals.
Expectations up north are, as always, quite high. But realistically, what are England, Ireland, and Wales’ chances of heading across the equator and scoring a few upsets? Very little I suspect. Let’s have a look at the match-ups and consider the history of each.
England versus South Africa
South Africa have not lost against England since November 18, 2006. England enjoyed their last victory on South African soil on June 24, 2000. South Africa have played 10 games in total against England in South Africa, winning seven and losing three. Since 2000 South Africa have won 76.16 percent of their games at home.
Add to the mix a new coach and a host of exciting players coming through the ranks in the Springboks.
Not many teams pitch up in South Africa and expect to win. And England with their current team would be wise to keep their heads down and do their talking on the field. The Lions learnt that lesson the hard way.
Prediction: South Africa 3 – 0 England
Australia versus Wales
The last time Australia lost against Wales was on November 29, 2008, in Wales. The Welsh have tasted victory on Australian soil only once, way back in 1969. Australia’s all-time winning percentage at home is 59.45, but that figure since 2000 increases to 78.16.
Wales under Warren Gatland have been known to talk a bit too much and that is fine. But they have to back it up against the best opposition. Wales are undoubtedly a good team, but they lack the composure and self belief to turn over the Big Three. Australia have the players to win this one.
Prediction: Australia 2 – 1 Wales
All Blacks versus Ireland
The All Blacks have never lost against Ireland. There has been one draw between the sides way back in 1973. The All Blacks enjoy an all-time record of 83.05 percent of games won at home. If you look at that figure since 2000 it stands at 91.66 percent, with 66 matches won and only six lost.
Based on the above figures it would be very unwise to bet against the All Blacks.
People may say the stats count for nothing, but I think it paints an accurate picture of what will happen come the June tests.
Depsite South Africa losing many old hands, they have a new coach, and many new faces coming through with better talent than what is on offer in England. Even England have two South Africans in their side.
Australia have some stability with new players putting up their hands on a weekly basis.
And the All Blacks, well when have we ever seen a poor All Blacks team?
All this leads to the continued dominance of world rugby by the southern hemisphere.
Naranja
Guest
Hello BEN - when Rex Goodwin said that his Welsh pals predicted a Boks whitewash, you said you didn't believe anybody in Wales would think that. And now, a week or so later, here's Dean Malone predicting the same thing. And yet you didn't jump down his throat. Why not? Could it be that SA won't have any trouble in fielding a far more formidable squad than will England? And on home turf. Did you watch Morne plonking them over against the Crusaders? I don't mean to cane your fingers and I know you're a huge fan of England, but wishing doesn't make it so. Wishing that Toby was a world class fly is something thousands of England fans indulge in. I wish he was world class. He's a fine kicker but at test level he's a dull, non-running player, and the two outside him are merely showing great promise for the future. And the future for them isn't as close as this June.
Derm
Roar Guru
Anyone know what's the position with Super 15 test players who are playing in the June Internationals? The last weekend of S15 is on June 2 with the Cheetahs, Force and Reds on a bye. The first test is Australia v Scotland on 5 June. Is this a full test that is being played in the IRB window? Is there an agreement in place so that test squads from each country can be brought together in advance and pulled from their clubs to give them sufficient prep time?
Derm
Roar Guru
Yep, yep , it was. Definitely. Complete once-off, never to be repeated. England were just plain lucky. He said in his best straw-clutching manner......
Derm
Roar Guru
Nick - you "maybe" phrased it wrong? You meant to say "The simple fact is that SH teams can beat NH teams in their backyard regularly?" In the context of tours what does regularly mean in your world? SA played France four times and lost all? Argentina played Ireland 4 times and lost all? SA played Wales 7 times and won all 7? Argentina played France 4 times and won once? SA played Eng 8 times and lost 5? Australia played France 6 times and won 3? Where's the regularity? The only team winning regularly and consistently away is New Zealand. End of story.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Those 12 wins mean a hell of a lot more when you consider the combined record of England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales against the All Blacks.
Nicksa
Guest
i maybe phrased it wrong, i meant to say regularly...
Colin N
Guest
Of couse it was because of Ireland's falings that they were beaten by 21 points.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Re: England, that's the thing - I think it's too early to criticise and too early to praise (although there is obviously room for both). The 6N was poor, as post-WC 6Ns tend to be, and no side showed a complete package. Come December we'll all know where we stand, I would imagine. Until then it's a collection of frustrated fans waiting for the summer.
Scarlet
Guest
I don't really disagree with your comments either Ben and Colin. It's a funny thing but I suppose it is national bias. This 6N wasn't great quality rugby in some ways, but some very exciting games. Wales seem to have lost some attacking flair, but I think that is them growing up and being more pragmatic in trying to close out games. Roberts started to vary his game and they are learning how best to use three enormous backs to their best advantage without settling in to a crash ball fest. England came close to humiliation against Scotland and Italy, played well against Wales and Ireland. Is that because they were settling in to a new coaching regime, or because they have little ambition? Time will tell on that one and I hope that Lancaster is up to scratch as an exciting England team would be good to see. Ireland seem to be needing some fresh blood and maybe Declan Kidney is past his use by date? Don't know to be honest but they are definitely missing BOD. Robinson is a better coach than his players suggest, so maybe he needs to import some young Kiwi Scots to boost his ranks.
AndyS
Guest
They bloody should, playing a Force/Reds select side minus their Wallabies. Hope to God some of the injured Reds are back on deck by then.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
New Zealand's Test record all round is a thing of wonder so you aren't going to identify chinks in the armour through those overall stats. I think it counts a great deal that France turned the All Blacks over in two high profile World Cup games when they weren't favourites to do so. Not only that, they managed wins against the All Blacks when they weren't top dogs in Europe. The 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000 & 2009 5/6 Nations tournaments were all won by teams other than France. If the All Blacks faced the champions that year, they beat them but lost Tests to France in all those years. Certainly, France were champions when they pulled off that win in 2007 but that didn't make it any less of an upset, England tend to challenge New Zealand when they've built up a head of steam. Even with momentum in recent years, Wales haven't managed a win. Ireland and Scotland have never won against the All Blacks, even when reigning at home. France, meanwhile, seem to pull off wins against them no matter what their recent form.
Ben Farell
Guest
I bet Scotland will beat the Wallabies, I just get that feeling.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Cabannes & Benetton are my all time favorites flankers. What players they were! A true running openside flanker and the hardest working backrower i have seen. legends.
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Yeah I agree Tony, the perception that France is the All Blacks bogey team is based on those two world cup victories because they were such high profile matches. As Pots pointed out, their best period was during the late nineties. Their backrow at the time of Phillippe Bennetton, Laurent Cabannes and Abdel Benazzi is one of my all time favourites.
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Hi Colin I came to the same conclusion after submitting my post.
Derm
Roar Guru
France's best period against NZ was between 1994 and 2000 when they played each other 8 times with France winning 5 times, including 3 on the bounce in 1994/95.
Bakkies
Guest
''Well, I thought they were pretty convincing against Ireland!'' Not really Ireland were masters of there own demise. The scrum falling apart, key errors by Tomas O'Leary (the pushover penalty try was brought about by O'Leary carrying it over the line forcing a 5 metre scrum. Suicidal when your scrum was getting smashed. I would carried it out as England's lineout and backplay was less menacing) Kidney's selections and tactics. The pack didn't contest in the last twenty minutes and England took advantage. Before that apart from scrum time it was an even game and England didn't look threatening with ball in hand.
Derm
Roar Guru
Bakkies - I left out the Scotland record for SA a as I was trying to compare like with like and have the number of teams match. However, for the record, they've played 5 matches since 2000 and won 3 of them. A much better record than Wales!! I checked Argentina's matches against France, and couldn't find anything outside of the RWC, bar the 2004 match. you may be thinking of the thrashing the Pumas handed out in Buenos Aires in 2010 - 41-13.
Bakkies
Guest
''The W refers to away team wins. England v South Africa – P8 and W3 by margins of 11, 36 and 10 (37.5%) France v South Africa – P4 and W0 – (0%) Ireland v South Africa – P5 and W2 by margins of 10 and 2 (40%) Wales v South Africa – P7 and W7 by margins of 10, 2, 17, 22, 5, 3 and 4 – (100%) Combined: P24 and W12 (50%)'' Chuck in 2 away losses to Scotland
Derm
Roar Guru
I don't disagree with you, mania, however, I think I'd have to exclude Ireland from that optimism this June. I'm expecting nothing less than a horror show. Hopefully, it will end Kidney's reign.