After a humbling of the Tigers and a 15-goal demolition of Brisbane, Carlton fans and the wider football public are asking: can a team that has one finals victory in 10 years win the premiership in 2012?
The Blues have certainly gotten off to an impressive start after a pre-season that saw them go winless through the NAB Cup, displaying some indifferent form which had many experts questioning their top-four credentials.
Some take no notice at all of the pre-season, while others read too much, but the truth lies somewhere in between, and the relevance of February and March form depends entirely on the side in question. Clearly for Carlton it was as relevant as Ben Polis’ thoughts on racial equality.
Rare is the premiership that is won without a gilt-edged midfield, and the Blues have the quality at the top end and depth at the bottom required.
Chris Judd needs no introduction, and even with a Norm Smith, two Brownlows, five best-and-fairests and six All-Australian jumpers, he is able to claim, and has repeatedly, that he is not the best player at his club.
Some scoffed at me placing Marc Murphy at number nine in my 2012 player rankings, but he deserved his place and has set about proving it in the opening weeks.
There is no smoother mover in the AFL, no more effective user when out in space, and he has the goal sense that separates the truly great midfielders from those who are merely very good.
Bryce Gibbs is Murphy’s running mate, and also oozes class as he roams around the ground collecting the ball at will as the best link player in the competition.
Fourth banana is Kade Simpson, and every side should be so lucky to have him leading the support cast, running the wings to gather 25 quality touches and a goal a game.
Mitch Robinson is a cannonball wrapped in skin, and those who get hit by him certainly feel it the next day. Ed Curnow and Dennis Armfield provide the depth and hardness.
With the exception of the exquisitely skilled Chris Yarran, who will cut many sides to ribbons throughout the year with his pace and dash, the Carlton defence is old-fashioned and effective.
Lachie Henderson, Jeremy Laidler, Michael Jamison and Nick Duigan all do a job and have neat enough disposal, with Andrew Carrazzo and Heath Scotland always intent on pushing back to help out.
Jamieson and Duigan haven’t played in either game so far, but are among the first selected when fit, so depth down back is not an issue.
Up forward is where the Blues are especially dangerous, and no side can keep all of their options quiet. They’ve already had fifteen different goal-kickers in two games, with nine of them slotting multiples.
Jarrad Waite leads the side in the air, with rotating ruckmen Matthew Kruezer and Shaun Hampson providing support, along with rejuvenated swingman Brett Thornton, who is proving capable in his own right of providing headaches.
Small men Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett are unstoppable when on song, and will be looking to build on the 98 goals between them from last year.
And we haven’t yet seen Andrew Walker, who led Carlton’s goal-kicking last year with 56, and is equally capable on the lead or off the ground.
While it could be argued that it’s easy to read too much into wins over a couple of moderately performed teams, it has been the manner of victory that has impressed.
In the 18 team competition, Richmond can be assessed as a middle-third (7th-12th) type of side, and Brisbane will likely finish in the bottom six, so Carlton’s winning margins against them are a true reflection of what a top-four side should achieve.
For those not as keen to declare the Blues a genuine contender before compiling more evidence, the next three weeks will be a good measuring stick.
A huge Friday night ‘match of the round’ against Collingwood kicks off this run against more accomplished opposition, followed by an Essendon that will be 3-0 after taking care of Gold Coast next. The Bombers proved in the early season draw last year that when fit and firing, they can trouble Ratten’s men.
Fremantle away is next for the Blues, who showed against Geelong in round one that they will be a tough nut to crack in the confines of Patersons Stadium.
If Carlton can come out the other side of this run of matches with a win-loss ratio of even 4-1, then they’re off to the races, and with the friendliest draw of the top contenders this year, they can look forward to locking in the double chance. From there, a flag is well within their reach.
And if they post some large margin wins against the aforementioned three in the slick style with which they have played so far, dominating possession yet still breaking even in the tackle count, even non-believers will have to begrudgingly give Carlton their due.
Mitch Brown
Roar Rookie
Personally I see Carlton as a lock-in for top four, and with a bit of luck with injuries and form, can challenge for preliminary finals and perhaps beyond.
Robert
Guest
I scoffed at you when you had Dustin Martin at 10........along way off
40year Blue
Guest
One of the ingredients that has lifted the Blues to their current strength and makes them a genuine contender again is versatility to go along with or perhaps enhance their depth. They have bigger players that can play at either end (Jamison, Henderson, Waite, Thornton) they have smaller running players all over the ground and they seem to have 2 of every position covered, not just depth covered but 2 genuine quality players on the field for most spots. 2 gun rated mids (Judd, Murph), 2 quality big backs, 2 quality big forwards (when either Hammer or Kruze is playing forward) and 2 gun small forwards. What this does is enable them to have some players have lesser roles some weeks and still produce as a team, and makes it extremely difficult for opposition coaches to rely on shutting them out. You can blanket one or 2 and another pops up and destroys you. They are a huge show this year if they can keep it all together and injuries dont cruel them.
Macca
Guest
Duth - You are right, Carazzo can also shut a player out like he did with both Cotchin and Black while getting his fair share of the ball and Waite gives the forward line another dimension which will be even bett wehn Walker comes back, walker, waite and Kreuzer/hampson can all be teh get out marking target long but also all push up to the wings.
Duth
Guest
I like the look of Carlton this year and do think they are a genuine premiership contender. With a full list being available this week against Collingwood there is no excuses for anything less than a win and will need to do so to justify my beliefs. From your run through of their players I couldn't agree more. I think the two players that could really lift the Blues to the next level are not Murphy, Judd or Gibbs (these guys are known for being great players), but in fact Waite and Carazzo. Carazzo is shadowed by their aforementioned midfielders and has more freedom to run a muck during games, which he has done exceptionally the past two weeks. I look forward to what he can produce throughout the season. Waite is just starting to show what he can do with big pack marks and his kicking for goal. He could be a bigger asset for them up forward than Fevola ever was, as he has the ability (like Buddy Franklin) to play up the ground. Should be an exciting year for the Blues!!
Macca
Guest
I am a big Carlton fan but let's wait to see how they go on Friday night before getting too carried away, The Hawks have beten Collingwood and just lost to Geelong whihc is probably a better achievement that belting to teams that won't have much say come September. I will say this thought, it seems those who were willing to write off the blues after the 1/2 sides they fielded in the NAB cup got beaten are the same ones who are no tipping a premiership after beating to mediocre sides, so much for "expert analysis"!
Swampy
Guest
Early days. Injuries will probably introduce the x-factor. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The top five from last year look like filling the top five spots again, but there's a strong chance that we will not have the same grand finalists from last season - expect two out of Hawthorn, WCE and the blues to displace last year's top two.
Poohdini
Guest
So early in the season, still a few teams to find their feet. Expect reality to settle in very soon.
Rob
Guest
Carlton are a long way above the middle pack I think, clearly a premiership chance but also clearly below the best 3 chances. Think they sit closely with WC and relatively easy to assess the top teams currently. Ultimately I don't think they can win, but with what they've got to cone back and the way Kruezer is looking, I wouldn't bet the house they couldn't!
D. Large
Guest
Classic line about Robinson being "a cannonball wrapped in skin". Hard to disagree with any of that although I will say that the first thing any team should do when playing Carlton is put the hardest tag possible on Yarran & Murphy. Cutting off that absolute class has to be first priority, yet I continually see both of them roaming free game after game. And I'm not talking about a Daniel Jackson tag, I want to see a Libba in the mid 90's tag.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The last paragraph is a great point. Some of the guys getting dropped might be in the top 12 or 15 at a lower based club, so it goes to show that depth is just as important, if not more, than having the best premium players.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Cracker last line. Gee the Dee's are in trouble. Richmond in 2010 was being hailed as the worst team since Fitzroy when they were 0-9. It's conceivable that Melbourne could be 0-11, they don't play any of GWS, GC, Bris, Port until then.
Bayman
Guest
Each game is a different game, of course, but given Richmond's performance against Collingwood (even with many "best 22" on the sidelines) then Carlton's result against the Tigers was, perhaps, better than it looked at the end of the game. The Brisbane result was exceptional and surely they could have done no more than that given that Carlton too, like Collingwood, probably have players in the stands who would be in the best 22. It's early days, and injuries will have an impact, but the Blues look like one of the sides to beat. However, with Colingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast there's still no guarantee of a top four finish, let alone a premiership. After round two, though, you'd rather be following Carlton than Melbourne.
OK we are only in the second round but of all the teams Carlton and Hawthorn certainly look the goods. This afternoon's game will shed a little more light on the Hawks chances but Carlton, at this stage, look very, very good. Their speed across the entire ground is amazing and the opposition coaches will have headaches trying to combat Betts and Garlett. Ratten has the difficult job of who to drop when Jamieson, Duigan and Walker are fit to play. An unpleasant task that most coaches would love to have.
Hbomb@hotmail.com
Guest
The answer to your question is yes. This is assuming they have some luck with injuries, to me the hawks are the best eam followed by blues this year so it will depend on helath of squads come September. Assuming they have all stars on the park they are a huge show, I,agree about next,3 weeks. Collingwood will be decisive on Friday, they sholud beat them even without walker and a fully fit Jamison.