After the ecstatic highs of the opening round, this past weekend was turning out to be one big, fat anti-climax. Until late on Sunday afternoon, that is.
Hawthorn and Geelong’s arm wrestle at the MCG was one for the ages, and it proved once again that you should never write off a champion.
Widely tipped as a flag favourite this year, the Hawks looked home and hosed. After three and a half quarters of dominance, the fat lady would have been belting out the classics if Lance Franklin or Jarrad Roughead had found the target in the final quarter.
Nine times out of ten they would have split the middle, but this wasn’t to be. Sensing an opportunity, the reigning premiers climbed off the canvas, dusted themselves off and landed what could be a killer psychological blow. Four of them, to be precise.
The look on Alastair Clarkson’s face after the siren said it all. Geelong have a strong mental hold over Hawthorn and that needs to be broken if the Hawks are any chance in the finals.
Could this be the loss they needed to spur them on? Probably not given their recent head-to-head record – eight consecutive defeats since the 2008 decider.
Regardless, they will still be there at the pointy end of the season – but when they get there, they’ll find a number of other clubs alongside the Cats who’ll feel just as deserving of glory.
If the last three weeks has told us anything, it’s that the race for the flag is wide open. Geelong and Hawthorn are surefire contenders, but Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast are all making the noises.
In their 91-point win over Brisbane the Blues showed off their credentials in emphatic style. On paper, a midfield of Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Curnow and the rest reads like a premiership engine room.
But their most bitter rivals, Collingwood, are also up and about. They meet in a blockbuster showdown on Friday that shapes as must-see viewing for fans of all clubs.
The Pies are not yet at their strongest but like Geelong, there are too many winners on their list for them to fall away from the pack.
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Then there’s last year’s surprise packet. West Coast went from bottom in 2010 to within one game of the grand final last season, and so far this term they’ve done enough to suggest that was no fluke.
Who’s the best out of the lot? Who knows. There’s a reason Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn are joint premiership favourites, with the Eagles close behind. Not even the bookies know who to back.
At the same time, it seems just as difficult to predict who will take home the most unwanted of gifts, the wooden spoon.
There are two obvious candidates, and they are obvious candidates for a reason. Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney are both so far off the pace it’s not funny.
Nobody really expected the Giants to give it a shake this year, so Easter Sunday’s brutal loss to North Melbourne came as no surprise.
GWS earned wide praise for their performance in their inaugural match against Sydney but are still nowhere near being competitive.
The fact that the Suns don’t look much better than them should be a matter of concern for AFL House. If anything, they are worse than GWS. They are supposed to be 12 months more advanced but the overwhelming verdict from their first two games is that they are too easily intimidated.
Two spankings, two disgraceful first-quarter brainfades. Gold Coast simply can’t win the contested ball and the freak Gary Ablett – surely now the best player in the league – can’t do everything on his own.
On the back of a fighting win over St Kilda and a gallant loss to Essendon, Port Adelaide – who are still trying to ditch their reputation as the joke team of the AFL – seem certain to break away from GWS and the Coast.
Melbourne appear most likely to take their place in the doldrums and join the boys from Blacktown and the upstarts from the tourist strip in a triple threat match for the dreaded booby prize.
If you don’t mind though, my eyes will be glued to the other end of the table.
Bevan Otway
Guest
Excuse me, I am a first time reader of this site and well as a expert, Vince you should re evaluate that, Tag you have as the game your referred to occurred on Monday (Hawks and Cats) as I said a expert would at least be able to read a calendar, Cheers
Macca
Guest
Why do we "need" to find hope, why not just view the results for what they are rather than delude ourselves? It was always going to be a long couple of years, if the players and supporters thought anyhting else they were extrememly foolish.
Ironmonger
Guest
What about Swannies in the mix for premiers. Dusted off Freo who beat Cats, and did it without Mummy in the ruck v Sandilands. Sam Reid early tip for Coleman medal too...
amazonfan
Guest
I would prefer to suffer a heart attack than to drown. Anyway, I think the reality is that considering that such losses were inevitable, we need to find some hope in them. Otherwise, not only will it be a long couple of years, but the players and the supporter base will be extremely discouraged.
clipper
Guest
Don't forget that this includes the Giants who will be lucky to draw 10k to most of their games, so I don't think that will have much sway on the aggregate, although it will certainly drag the average down, so should be taken into account.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
And Shuuuuuuuuuey
Cameron
Guest
Wookie Aggregate records are going to be set on a regular basis this year because there are now 9 games. The real interest will be how steady average crowds will be.
Matt F
Roar Guru
FTA ratings for Saturday Night were 385k in Melbourne, which was for Pies/Tigers, 115k in Adelaide and 160k in Perth. I'm assuming that Adelaide and perth would have seen the Crows and Eagles games respectively instead. Can't find FTA figures for Cats/Hawks. It's not in the Top 20 which is up to what the list I look at covers. It would have been less then 639k nationally, though in Sydney and Brisbane it was shown on 7mate so it's technically considered to be a seperate program in those cities.
Macca
Guest
Mckenna just doesn't have the cattle, but the expansive game plan he is playing will bring rewards quicker than the GWS defensive style.
TW
Guest
Just read an article in todays Oz that Gold Coast relying heavily on the return of Bock etc for their next game. However the headline indicated that Bluey McKenna`s job not looking real secure - The thing is how much improvement should GC be expected to produce in 2nd year. Our Eagles household reckon that Scotty Waters is a better Coach than Bluey McKenna.
Macca
Guest
Yeah I was going to include the eagles but honestly I don't see enough of them to think of who they have in there. they definitely have a massive advantage in the ruck and if Gaff, Selwood & Masten keep improving they might well be better than the pies if you count rucks as midfielders.
Macca
Guest
The Lions kicked 6 or 7 goals in the first quarter but didn't take a mark inside 50, they were fighting hard but they couldn't keep holding back the tide forever
Redb
Roar Guru
and it was on Fox Sports 1, not Fox Footy from memory. Ch 7's coverage was also on well before the game on Sat night, i found myself sticking to them for awhile.
Redb
Roar Guru
Dont forget West Coast's midfield especially a wee bloke called Nic Naitinui.
Redb
Roar Guru
No they are not. However the Lions were competitive in the first half then got blown away by 90 points - that is ruthless premiership like football from a team that is hungry and on the up. I'm framing Geelong, Carlton or West Coast for Grand Finalists, but its a long season. Collingwood and Hawthorn are clearly going to be thereabouts come September. Maybe Adelaide, Fremantle, Essendon, Nth Melb and Sydney to fill out the 8. Saints, Tigers, Bulldogs, Lions and Port in the next tier. Suns, Giants & Dees rock bottom.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Yeah it was on at the same time as Crows/Dogs so combining the two of them would be the best way to show how many people were watching AFL at the time.
Matt F
Roar Guru
They're obviously trying to find a way to set the Eagles odds at less then $1.01 :)
Matt F
Roar Guru
They're not easy beats in the sense that everybody in the competition will demolish them. That belongs to GC and GWS (maybe even Melbourne.) However the gap between the top 5 clubs and the rest is massive. I would expect the top 4-5 teaqms to dispatch Richmond and Bribane quite comfortably this season. Maybe not by 90 points but I don't seeeither of those two teams really troubling the top few sides (if the top sides are near 100%) Carltons win over Brisbane was fantastic, and I give them every chance against Collingwood on Friday. I'd just like to see them really produce the goods against another contender before jumping on the bandwagon, so to speak. They were clearly behind Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn last year and a bit behind WC as well. It's not until they actually play those teams that we'll know for sure if they've really closed the gap.
Jaceman
Guest
What were the FTA numbers for those games or are they out tomorrow?? 91K for the pies v Tigers - was it on FTA in Melbourne as well...
Redb
Roar Guru
Re pies v tigers , two games on at once diltued the audience and a fairly flat game from all accounts. Sat night is generally not a great rating night expecially when a fair proportion are out of town due to Easter.