If selection is based purely on recent form, then Todd Carney should don the number six jersey for New South Wales in the first State of Origin match.
Carney’s rivals for the five-eighth role are Jamie Soward, James Maloney, Jarryd Hayne and Jarrod Mullen.
On paper Maloney appears to be Carney’s closest competition, having made the most metres, line breaks and points of the contenders, followed closely by Carney. Missed tackles and errors seem to be very much still a part of Maloney’s game – he has missed an average of six tackles per game in 2012.
There can be no weak links in a State of Origin defence, and Carney averages only two missed tackles per match, a much more forgiving statistic.
The battle between Carney and Hayne has received the most media attention. The most interesting difference between the pair is that Carney is the only one playing as number six for his club, with Hayne’s role being fullback.
This makes it difficult to compare their form, however only Carney has recent experience in the role, a striking advantage. While Hayne has previously played five-eighth for the Eels, it was only for four games in the 2009 season and according to former NRL coach Michael Hagan it was an experiment which did not work.
“He just didn’t look comfortable. I question whether such an experiment would be wise at State of Origin level,” he told Yahoo Seven Sport.
He said that a shift in position is a real big ask especially in such a big match.
“[Todd] is a tough competitor who has played in the halves all his career,” he said.
Soward is last year’s New South Wales five-eighth. As the incumbent, why is he not the obvious choice? New South Wales are desperate to break the Queensland dominance of six consecutive series wins and to do this, selectors need to take into account current form.
Soward is not at his peak, having not made a line break this season unlike the other contenders who range for one to six. He has not even crossed for a try. He has made just 31 runs to Carney and Maloney’s 52 each, resulting in just 238m compared to 342m, 414m and 501m to Mullen, Carney and Maloney respectively.
Mullen was on the Origin scene for one game in 2007 as halfback. However it is important to note that he was unable to secure a permanent position. Statistically he is third to Carney and Malloney in runs made, metres gained, tackles, hit-ups and offloads. These are primary elements of an all-round player, the kind of player suited to Origin. New South Wales would be better served by Carney, who has these all-round statistics and the added advantage of his goal-kicking ability.
Carney is the only one of the competitors to have received the prestigious Dally M Medal as five-eighth (Hayne has won it from fullback). He has played a major role in achieving four wins in a row for the Sharks and securing third spot on the ladder after finishing thirteenth last year.
Based on current form, natural prowess and his all round attack and defensive skills, Carney should be the number one contender to help lead the New South Wales Origin team to victory.
Charles
Guest
As I had said over and over I put in the Origin players as an (example) to build from those having has Origin experience. Then you add or subtract to make the team stronger. I am sorry if you cannot understand what I am trying to explain, build a team on facts not emotion was my debate. As you may have noticed nine of these players are selected for the 3rd Origin. It is only and example!
Baz
Guest
this may be a little bit late, but Charles, if you see this. This is undoubtably the worst origin team I have ever seen. Kind regards, Baz
Charles
Guest
Before you jump down my throat Barry, and want to argue who your players should be, read carefully what I said. I gave an example, which includes a team of the older experienced origin players and then another team with the junior origin players First select out of the first list (more to be added) who is the best in their position and make a compelling argument based on facts why they should be in the team and in what position. Then weigh up players from the second team of origin players under 25 (more to be added) against the ones who were not included in the first team before weighing them up against the team. In other words the first team is the benchmark because they have the experience, the extra players may be still better than the 2nd team. In regards to Lewis or Bird anyone for that matter all I am saying they have won man of match in that position therefore should be considered before anyone else and then lay down the gauntlet as to who is better than them. Those two players can play other positions and contest them as well and may be suited better in say 2nd row because they have become slower. What I am trying to establish is that we are plucking players based on emotion and not facts. This is the reason why NSW is not winning and each we keep changing the dynamics of the team. Given some through injuries and suspension but you really want experienced players to fill in whenever possible to lessen the impact. QLD does this to perfection!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Where are the 'facts' that say Luke Lewis is our best halfback ?
Charles
Guest
It is time that the selectors start ruling with facts and figures instead on emotions. I suggest they draw up a list of all the older players (say over 25) that have played in Origin and are still eligible for representative football. Formulate the best team out of that group. Then draw up another list under the age of 25 and do the same. Use the following criteria or similar and place a box next to each question with numbers rating 1 to 5 with 5 the highest: Defence skills, attacking skills, mental toughness, enthusiasm, taking the right options, fitness, stamina, speed, power, ability to break the line, support play, and the list goes on. I have drawn a list on top of my head, not concrete in their positions, only as an example. I am not sure of their age so they may be in the wrong team, Jarrod Hayne for one. There are many more players to add but this is only an example, I would also do a third list for the potential players Then I would weigh up very carefully, based on the data given and argue first the reasons why the extra players cannot fill the spots, then which in the second team are showing the better stats and so on. If a player can do two or more positions he can contest them too. The first team has all the experience so they should be considered on their merits and not their age. What we seem to forget what these experienced players ability are. Take the halves where NSW is doing so badly. Greg Bird has won a man of match award in this position and Luke Lewis in both positions. They are the first picked for NSW so why not in the halves as we have a heap of back rowers that can fill in their place. Send a signal out to the 2nd team that they have to knock harder if you want to be in this elite team. If anyone is better than them put their hand up and prove it. We really need to stop putting in players that may go well (emotions) and get the facts right! 1. Brett Stuart 2. Josh Morris 3. Jarrod Hayne 4. Matt King 5. Brett Morris 6. Greg Bird 7. Luke Lewis 8. Luke Bailey 9. Danny Buderus 10. Paul Gallen 11. Anthony Watmough 12. Glen Stewart 13. Dean Young 14. Brent Kite 15. Jason Ryles 16. Ryan Hoffman 17. Kurt Giddley More players eligible (Example) Michael Weyman Anthony Minichiello 1. Josh Dugan 2. Akuila Uate 3. 4. 5. 6. Jamie Soward 7. Todd Carney 8. 9. Ryan Hinchcliffe 10. Dan Hunt