It’s unusual to write an obituary for a team coming off a win and sitting sixth place on the ladder with a 3-2 record and a percentage of 146, but it’s high time that the last rites were administered to this St Kilda side.
Nick Riewoldt will not win a premiership at St Kilda. Lenny Hayes will not win a premiership at St Kilda. Nick Dal Santo will not win a premiership at St Kilda.
Neither will Sam Fisher, Leigh Montagna, or Steven Milne. Ditto Justin Koschitzke.
Jason Blake will retire without a premiership medal or a Brownlow vote. Clinton Jones will hang up the boots content in the knowledge that he got everything out of himself, but without tasting the ultimate success.
Adam Schneider won a flag at Sydney, so he’ll have reunions to go to, where the drinks will surely flow. His St Kilda brethren will not be invited.
Apart from Schneider, all of the above will be 29 or older at round one next year, and even Adam will be but a month away. All are still in the Saints’ best 22, with most still in the Saints’ best ten, but there is no improvement to come from any.
Schneider is suffering from a hamstring injury and is yet to play this year, and Kosi was suspended, but the rest played on Saturday night in a team that struggled to put away a Melbourne side that has handed Brisbane and Richmond their only wins of the year, by 41 and 59 points respectively.
St Kilda’s 18 point buffer was the lowest winning margin this year against the Demons, a side that is widely tipped to be 0-11 when they hit the bye.
Also running around for the Saints were Jason Gram and Sean Dempster (both 28 and with obvious limitations), and the likes of Dean Polo and Sam Gilbert, much-maligned 26 year olds, who draw the ire of supporters for good reason.
At least Dempster will be joining Schneider at those Sydney reunions.
The fall of Gilbert has been stunning. An All-Australian nominee in 2009, and third in the best and fairest in a grand final year in 2010, he was a once-feared marking and running half-back who now struggles to find the ball, and prefers kicking out on the full or to opposition players when he does.
With the exception of Dean Polo, the players mentioned so far formed the nucleus of the grand Ross Lyon-led St Kilda. And what a team they were.
History looks on winners favourably, and as the saying goes, losers can please themselves, but we shouldn’t forget just how good the Saints in 2009 were, despite the fact that Geelong were the premiers.
With a frenzied, fanatical mindset, they embodied everything good about team defence, and were the hardest team to score against in over 40 years.
I can still vividly recall a round seven match from that year, against Collingwood who were fifth at the time.
St Kilda were manic in their intensity, and you could see the fear in the Magpie players’ eyes when they got the ball, because they knew they were about to be swarmed over, with no friendly options in sight.
The Saints won that match by 88 points, against a side that would finish top four that year and win a flag a year later, defeating the very same St Kilda after having perfected their own defensive press.
Riewoldt and Co came so close to grand final glory, and but for a well-documented Matthew Scarlett toe-poke here, and an ill-fated bounce of the ball there, they could all be dual premiership players.
Unfortunately for them, it wasn’t to be, and here we now stand with a side that went up a hill and are coming down a mountain.
Round two and three thumpings of inept opposition shouldn’t shield the fact that this is a club on the slide, and losses to Port (its only victory this year, and a side that won one of its last twelve in 2011) and Fremantle in Melbourne (which wins in this part of the country roughly as often as there are drawn grand finals) give us a clearer indication of what is to come.
The price of contending is that you don’t get the rock-solid early draft picks, and the young players on the list are not introduced.
This has never been clearer than St Kilda under Ross Lyon, and a vacuum has been created in the 19-25 year old age group, with only Jack Steven, David Armitage, Ben McEvoy and Jarryn Geary able to sneak through.
As the older brigade are retired or traded over the next few years, this tiny core is supposed to lead the next generation into the light.
History suggests that you need more than that, and I fully expect these four players to be in their 30s by the time the Saints re-emerge as a premiership contender.
Arguably the best of the St Kilda players is Brendan Goddard, noticeably yet to be mentioned.
Two or three years younger than the rest of the top-end talent, a player of his quality could play well into his thirties either behind the ball or in front of it, and there is some slim chance that he could live the Shane Crawford fairytale by retiring a 300-game player with the final one resulting in a premiership medallion. Not for mine though.
Make no mistake, the St Kilda Football Club are on the precipice of a long, dark, cold winter, akin to something out of Game of Thrones.
Which is a shame for a champion team that didn’t win the ultimate prize, and a shame for the champion players who have carried them for so long.
But such is their fate. So rug up Saints fans, you’re going to be out in the cold for a while yet.
Steve
Guest
I am 61 and have been following the Saints for as long as I can remember. Support base in my family is in its 4th generation. As a child I remember the glorious win in 66 not knowing that 47 years would pass without another flag in that time. I only hope I am not pushing up daisies when the second one comes around!! It's tough being a loyal saints supporter!
The Oudsman
Guest
Great call Winston: I had overlooked Buckley with my praise of Riewoldt. Hard to split. Not sure on Gehrig's stats, but he was certainly a behemoth of the square for at least two or three years. The Riewoldt 9 goal match was against Melbourne at the 'G; funnily enough, the Saints got towelled up by 10 goals! He was unstoppable in the air that day. I think Ross got them in better positions to win flags than Thomas, and probably with inferior sides. Imagine a Lyon-coached 2005 St Kilda line up? No way they'd give up 7 goals in the last quarter to Sydney in the prelim, and then in a tense GF encounter vs WCE, they'd be an even money bet at worst.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Steven, I don't think it's a blame game, and to me Ross Lyon did everything right in order to win his side a premiership, and it was worth trying again last year for sure. Sometimes things don't work out though, and the consequences must be suffered. If the Saints can do it like the Swans, then good on them, but I just can't see it. No doubt you'll hope i'm wrong!
brendan
Guest
This season might be one for the ages , the minute you write a team off they come back and bite you on the bum.Look at the Carlton/Essendon/Collingwood results.Logically the Saints are in a position to have a crack at a top four spot so if they keep winning with there percentage who knows.
Steven
Guest
Yes, a humble opinion!
Steven
Guest
What would you have had us do? Rebuild last year even though we were amongst the top few teams in the second half of the season? Rebuild like the Demons, or do it like the Swans? There is no need for full scale rebuilding. And there is always a point to playing finals. Having said that I would love a premiership at some point!
Isabel
Guest
You call yourselft an "expert" hahaha, mate, tell me more about your experience at AFL club's and how many games you've played at AFL level. And according to your profile you go for Richmond. I lol'd.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's perhaps 10 minutes past midnight, more likely a quarter past midnight, meaning the big hand is now starting it's long loop downwards. There's a tiny, tiny glimmer of hope. There will be games where they will worry more fancied opponents, which is no bad thing and becoming a common occurence this season, after a few seasons where that sort of thing hasn't happened. But deep, deep down, we know, and they know, the dream is gone.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The boy from Southport returning home in his twilight years? There's a lot right about that proposal.
Stevo
Guest
Agreed - Buckley's grand final performances would put him above Riewoldt in this category....St Nick the coach perhaps?
Blivacs
Guest
Great article here Cam, I agree that Saints are in for a tough few years and Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Hayes will never see a premiership at the saints. It's hardly a tradgedy that they wont win one as there are many great players in the history of the game that haven't tasted success on the last saturday in September. There is indeed a gaping hole in that mid age group in the senior Saints line up but I think blaming Lyon for not developing them is a touch harsh. Lyon's game plan required absolute discipline and buy in and perhaps the young players couldnt achieve that, perhaps they couldnt be trusted in Lyons mind to fully buy in and get it done or perhaps they simply werent good enough to get a game. Maybe the blame should lie at the feet of the recruiters at the saints. Picking Riewoldt, Dal Santo and Goddard with high draft picks didnt take much of a gun recruiter, look further at the selections of the Clarkes, and some other duds on the list and maybe Lyon achieved more with that group than they ever should have. Lucky for St Kilda supporters they can go through this long dark winter in the comforts of Etihad Stadium for if it was suffered whilst home games were at Moorabbin they might have become the Hobart Saints in 10 years time.
Swampy
Guest
Is there no reason to think that saint nick isn't looking into the sun in 2013? Just seems to be playing his way out of a club in dire need of a trade for some youth to me. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Sausages
Guest
From a St. Kilda supporter's point of view I can completely understand the points made in this article. Most of the players on our list won't play in a premiership side, and yes it is probably something that they may have deserved. However, flags are not handed out for effort during the year or over a decade. Unfortunately the Saints fell short in the 2 or 3 games that mattered. Bad luck. The fact that the best players on our list are of an older age now, generally 28+, has left a gaping hole in our list. Take out McEvoy, Steven and Gwilt there is little else to really hang our hats on. Armitage is slowly getting there, Geary needs to develop further and Stanley is very, very raw but there are good signs. Ledger needs an opportunity and Cripps could be a player. The rest are unknown. The blame falls at Lyon's feet here. He didn't develop any young players in the way Geelong have for example. Grant Thomas at least played most of these now 28+ players with the likes of Harvey, Hamill, Gehrig and Hudghton setting the example in 02, 03, 04, 05 etc. And hence when these players retired we didn't fall in a heap like we might do now. Riewoldt, Dal Santo and Goddard learnt heaps of these blokes by playing along side them, and older veterans like Everitt, Hall and Wakelins were shown the door. Tough calls were made that Lyon resisted. If Lyon played some kids instead of Polo, Peake, Ray and Fiora types perhaps the gap would not be such a canyon. Lyon did sacrifice this to try and win a premiership, and at the time no one blamed him, but in retrospect he should have payed more kids. The saints wouldn't be in this unfortunate position now, and who knows, maybe a Christiansen type at Geelong may have emerged and played a role in those Grand Finals....who knows??? Perhaps Lyon was not interested in the saints future after this tilt with these players....history suggests he wasn't....
Brian
Guest
The Saints and Crows are currently on much better ladder positions than they should be thanks to the uneven draw. In 5 rounds the poorest 9 sides have yet to beat any of the better 9 sides (Geel, Carl, Coll, Haw, WC, Syd, Fre, Ess, NM). St Kilda along with Adelaide and Richmond are amongst the better sides who will not make the 8. Beyond this season it then only seems to get worse.
Westy
Guest
After reading the astute comments here, I am tending to think that St Kilda really should pack-up now and not even bother competing for the rest of the year.
JasonA
Guest
In my opinion to make the finals this season teams will need to win 14 games. I cannot see St Kilda getting there. I feel that North Melbourne, Fremantle, Adelaide and Essendon are ahead of them in terms of list development and this will show come September as these teams will be placed ahead of the saints. Their window is closed and they would be best served by embracing this come trade week, moving some of their best assets for picks that will be more in line with the age profile they require for their next tilt at a flag. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Winston
Guest
On the "unsuccesfully done more to win a flag" label, Nathan Buckley would be up there too. Not sure about the group under Ross Lyon, but the group in 2004/2005 was awesome too. They had Fraser Gehrig kicking 90+ goals didn't he? And whilst in recent years Riewoldt hasn't been the most accurate in front of goals, I remember this match back then when Gehrig was out and Riewoldt was pretty much the lone hand in the forward and he kicked 9 goals or something. In the middle they had a mix of the current guys (7 years younger of course) plus Robert Harvey. Down back wasn't too shabby too. I think if we are to say it's unfortunate they didn't win under Ross Lyon, I think it's even more unfortunately they didn't win under Grant Thomas given how many good players they had all in their prime years.
Ophuph Hucksake
Guest
It is known :-)
The Oudsman
Guest
No man could claim to have unsuccessfully done more to win a flag for his side than Nick Riewoldt, certainly in the last decade, and perhaps in the last fifty years. The sad reality now is that, as the author rightfully points out, they will be nowhere near the pointy end of the ladder before Saint Nick hangs up the boots. St Kilda's other major problem is, Goddard aside, their tradeable assets are, well, not very tradeable. In hindsight, Koschitke should have been traded 5 years ago and Riewoldt and Hayes are iconic (and ageing) and trading them would do more harm than good, given their supporter base are renowned for looking only for negatives in a 15 goal win. Ultimately, Ross Lyon got a group of very good to excellent players together, supported them with reasonable footballers playing specific roles (who did their job very well) and eked out better results than he was entitled to. Their time is up.
Cameron Rose
Expert
There is a price to be paid for sustained success without blending youth in as you go, and this is where the Saints have been out-performed by Geelong, and even as we are now seeing, Sydney. Collingwood have also been prepared to give plenty of youth a go. Brendan Goddard was the youngest player in the Saints top ten in the B&F last year. Doesn't exactly scream 'youth coming through' does it?