As Bradley Wiggins powered to both a stage and an overall victory in the final time trial at the Tour de Romandie he demonstrated why many observers have him pegged as the key favourite for this year’s Tour de France.
Wiggins’ preparation appears to be a long way ahead of Cadel Evans and both Andy and Frank Schleck.
In 2012 he has already collected strong victories at Paris-Nice and now the Tour de Romandie, by winning the time trial stages and producing respectable performances in the hilly stages.
This is a proven successful formula at the Tour de France, just ask former winners like Indurain, Ullrich, Armstrong and of course Evans, whose destruction of Andy Schleck in the stage 20 time trial last year is still fresh in the memory.
This year’s Tour parcours feature two long, relatively flat, individual time trials: stage 9 is a 38km into Besançon and stage 19 covers 52km from Bonneval to Chartres.
A time triallist of Wiggins’ calibre could easily take three or four minutes out of the pure climbers over that combined distance. He’d have to have a couple of terrible days in the mountains to lose that much time.
It’s easy to forget that Wiggins was unlucky to crash out of the 2011 Tour de France on stage seven, suffering a broken collarbone. After defeating Evans at the Dauphine, he was in sparkling form. We’ll never know what might have been, and it only takes one bad day to lose the Tour, but there is a sense that Wiggins has unfinished business after that bitter disappointment.
Wiggins will be supported by a Sky team with an embarrassment of talent to select from, including powerhouse super-domestiques like Mick Rogers, Richie Porte, and Geraint Thomas. They could also select potent attacking weapons such as Juan Antonio Flecha and Edvald Boasson Hagen, to disrupt the peloton or get up the road in a breakaway if required.
If the team can avoid wearing itself out chasing down breakaways and setting up lead-out trains for sprinter Mark Cavendish, there are several riders in the squad capable of bringing Wiggins safely to the final climb of the day with plenty of support.
Sky’s split leadership is one possible avenue of attack for the other teams: if he can be isolated, Wiggins may be vulnerable on the steeper mountain stages. Stages 11, 16 and 17 will be key.
Constant attacks from BMC, Radioshack Nissan Trek, Movistar, Liquigas and Astana may be a way of dulling the legs of Sky over the first two weeks. Careful team management will be required to ensure Wiggins’ mountain lieutenants don’t burn out too early.
The Tour de Romandie has revealed that Wiggins’ form continues to improve. He is sitting out the Giro d’Italia (along with Rogers and Porte) and is likely to recover over the next few days and then hit a block of solid training before returning to race the Dauphine in June.
Evans will do the same, and try to rediscover his best performances after illness and a disappointing Tour de Romandie. On the evidence so far this season, he has some catching up to do over the next two months. There is still time, but the pressure is building.
The good news is that if Wiggins does manage to become the first Brit to win the Tour, we’ve still got a tenuous claim on him: his father Gary was Australian.
Tobin
Guest
Hi Tim, Great writting and also encourtagment of the discussion. With this years TdF not being so hilly that it will be a climber who wins. Is there a possibility that Philippe Gilbert or Sylvain Chavanel could hold on to the Yellow Jersey all the way to Paris? If Cadel is struggling with form in the first two weeks, do you think BMC could switch their focus to Thor Hushovd to be their GC contender. He is strong enough to break away andtake time as well as ride a strong TT.
Marcel Proust
Guest
Tommy, as we say in England ( or somewhere ), "Physician, heal thyself". It is ridiculous for a Convict to accuse the British of being the world's worst winners. We used to rule the world, and we haven't let anybody forget it. As for the tabloids, they don't have a lot of cycling in them. No...........they don't have ANY cycling in them. Or Rugby League, come to think of it. I should tell Tim Renowden, whose aritcle I like, that Geraint Thomas will not be going to the Grande Boucle. He is going to miss the Tour in order to focus on the shinding in The Smoke.
Felix Lowe
Expert
I hope to be providing some Giro coverage too - I'm back in Europe and will be following the race for Eurosport so should be scope for the odd article. It looks like SBS have live coverage of eight stages, so that's good for the Aussie cycling fans - as long as you don't mind staying up late!
Justin Curran
Guest
Wiggins must be from the same school as Andy Murray. They both generally look completely unimpressed in photographs.
Gusey
Guest
Telekom? hopefully there aren't any teams that are *that* strong!
Tim Renowden
Expert
It's probably the worst year for a Brit to win though. The general public will be so distracted by the Olympics that nobody outside the hardcore cycling crowd will even remember the Tour.
Tim Renowden
Expert
There will be lots of Giro coverage on The Roar - still discussing with our new editor which bits I will be doing. Of course there's nothing stopping you from writing something yourself!
tommy
Guest
The Brits will be unbearable if Wiggins wins. They are are the worlds worst winners & the I can just see the rubbish that the tabloids will spew out. What will make it worse is that if he does win, it will be 2 Aussies who will get him there. Please get fit Cadel!!!
MattyB
Guest
I like Sammy Sanchez, but mostly as a name that sounds good on the telly. He's often up there in the big climbs, and has tasted stage victories. He's won the tour of Basque this year including winning both time trial stages. But I don't know if there's much depth in the Euskadel team.
Cam Baker
Guest
Tim, I love your articles. Have you / will you be doing a preview of the Tour of Italy soon?
Bobo
Guest
Valverde or Van den Broeck must come into calculations.
Bones506
Roar Guru
I don't think it has much to do with the TDF GC this year but in two to three years time it might. Personally this is a great outcome for GreenEDGE. They would be thrilled to have such a big name sponsor. Two way street as well. This also gives Orica an expanded marketing platform.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Tim, Comments noted on Telekom and their efforts. Cav has not said anything specific yet. He was the only '08 male Brit track cyclist to not come away with Gold so maybe that is his focus. He has a stack of Tours still in him as well. The stage win theory def has merit - he can do two weeks and pull out before the big climbs.
Roundy
Guest
Winning the tour is going to come down to depth, both of the GC rider as well as the team. Sky, BMC and Radioschleck are probably the only teams that could handle three weeks of pressure. Basso is good and Nibbles will come close, but neither is a complete package to the same level as Wiggans, Evans etc. with fewer hill top finishes, that may allow a slightly different rider to get in a long break and mess things up for the favorites.
Tim Renowden
Expert
I'm interested to hear some opinions on who else will be favourites, too. Apart from the obvious ones like Frandy Schleck, Cadel and Wiggo. What about a returned Basso? Van den Broeck? Valverde? Brajkovic? Samuel Sanchez? Nibali? Kreuziger? Can any of the Italians win it, given they tend to focus on the Giro? Who else?
Whites
Guest
Excellent news.
Omega10
Roar Rookie
I disagree. I think he is still suspect in the third week of a Grand Tour. 4th in the Tour a couple of years ago was a great result but he definitely weakened in the last week as he did in the Vuelta last year with everything running in his favour. Cadel is a worry but he may be going better than he looks to be. If he can find the form he had last year I think he will win again but if he is a couple of percentage points down on that, look out for Wiggins. I'm not completely convinced that Andy Schleck is out of the reckoning just yet but the first mountain climb in the Tour will make things a lot clearer for all of us.
Bobo
Guest
Wiggins' form changed in the period 2009-2010 from being a useful leadout man/prologue specialist to being a genuine GC rider, flying up hills like a mountain goat. Given the strength in depth of Sky, as evidenced by last years' Vuelta, I really don't think we can use past Tour performance as a form guide. Schleck looks in characteristically abysmal Spring form; as we have seen in the past, that's no guide to how his Tour form will be. We just have no idea which Andy will turn up, or which Frank for that matter. Internal struggles at that team cannot be helping. Nibali is in great shape, but may struggle to maintain a peak that essentially started in February. Valverde may compete, but the TT heavy parcours may not assist his cause. On top form, I think it's between Evans and Wiggins, and the younger man looks better prepared.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Well done to GreenEDGE on securing their future for at least three years.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Wiggins is a very capable climber in the manner of a time triallist - remember his 2010 TDF and the 2011 Dauphine? Sure, he doesn't have the acceleration of a Contador or Schleck, but he has the engine to work his way into the big climbs, in much the same way as Cadel does. The relative lack of summit finishes this year works to the advantage of guys like Cadel and Wiggo, and this is not (as far as TDF's go) a particular mountainous edition. Also not saying he definitely will win, but I reckon he's looking a better chance than anyone else, right now.