The winners of the round 17 clash between the Chiefs and Crusaders in Hamilton on Friday July 6 will also win the 2012 Super Rugby Championship.
If the Chiefs beat the Crusaders, they will finish in both conference and overall first place on 72 points. The Crusaders will finish fourth on 67 points. If the Crusaders win, they will finish in first place for both conference and overall on 71 points. The Chiefs will finish fourth on 68 points.
Only a New Zealand team can finish in overall first place. This is for several reasons, such as:
1. The Stormers’ inability to score enough “four try” bonus points and hence challenge a new Zealand team for the first place on the overall competition table (they have earned just one bonus point from nine games, compared to the Chiefs three and the Crusaders five);
2. The Australian conference winners not winning enough games to challenge a New Zealand team for that same overall first place;
3. The massive benefit of home ground advantage that overall first place provides, particularly avoiding the mid-finals trip to South Africa;
4. The round 17 game has an eight point impact on the relative scores of the teams.
I assume that there will be no upset wins. The lure of the finals always concentrates the minds of the aspiring finalists as much as the thoughts of a few weeks off on a beach relaxes the minds of teams that have missed the playoffs.
Both the Chiefs, away and Crusaders, at home, will need to defeat the Highlanders.
If either the Chiefs or the Crusaders were to lose to the Highlanders, despite winning the round 17 clash, the Stormers would finish first in both conference and overall and become favourites to win the 2012 competition.
If the Highlanders were to defeat both the Chiefs and Crusaders, they would finish first on 69 in conference and tied for first, overall, with the Stormers. The Stormers currently have a 41 point advantage in the for/against.
There are other crucial games still to be played, that will determine the conference standings and minor placings overall.
The Brumbies play the Queensland Reds and Waratahs twice. They will miss the play offs only if they lose all three games. The Brumbies successor would be decided by the Reds V Waratahs game in round 18.
The Stormers would need to lose away to the Sharks in round 14, away to the Bulls in round 15 and lose to another team to miss winning the South African Conference.
I predict that the Chiefs will overcome the Crusaders in round 17 due to the combination of their massive pack and brilliant backline together with home advantage for that game.
The Chiefs will then go on to win their first Super Rugby Competition after wins over the Crusaders in the Semi Final and the Stormers in the grand final.
The final competition table will be:
Nic Wicken
Guest
Certainly a very comprehensive analysis - it will be very interesting to see how it actually plays out. You may well be right on the money but the big factor in my opinion is injuries. You can have all the stats and analysis in the world pointing to a particular outcome but if a key player goes down everything changes (eg Lealiifano). Hopefully there won't be any major injuries that have this effect but it's a brutal game!
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
G'day Leftie Solid analysis again. Can't argue with your summation. I'm going to be bold and predict that the Round 16 clash between the Hurricanes and the Crusaders will determine who will finish 2nd in the NZ conference. The Canes next four games see them play three of them in NZ and two of them at home. Then after their round 16 clash with the Crusaders they have a bye in round 17 with a guaranteed four points while the Chiefs and Crusaders play. With so many Cantab All Blacks involved with the June test series, it will be interesting to see how many of them and how well they pull up afterwards to play the Canes. The Highlanders are hurting with more injuries and I agree with OJ that goalkicking is a weakness for them. Beauden Barret's kicking percentages have dipped in the last few weeks as well but the misses don't seem to faze him. The Brumbies are scrambling to find a replacement for Lealiifano and he was a player they could ill afford to lose. Jake White and the players are saying all the right things and remaining positive but his play was so central to that backline humming, the Chiefs chances would also take a nosedive if anything happened to Cruden. The Rebels are honest triers but are still a few years away from developing into a more than useful side. They'll miss JOC's goalkicking as well as his running skills and the loss of Jarrod Saffy is a big one. The rollercoaster Tahs are a week to week proposition, so it depends if they play poorly or well the week before to have any kind of form guide for this fixture.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
After your run of predictions last season Leftie, I'm not going to doubt you this year. I keep waiting for the Chiefs and Highlanders to fall over and for normalcy to resume with the Crusaders but it hasn't happened yet. The Chiefs looked rock solid last weekend. The performance of their tight five has really lifted their backrowers, who were floundering the past few seasons, but the most crucial aspect of their season is the massive improvement in Cruden as a goalkicker. It's no surprise that the Crusaders have shored up their season through Taylor's goalkicking, either. This is a weakness for the Highlanders, I feel.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Fair enough, but what about a hooker adding impact simply because he's fresh legs coming into a tired scrum? I'm not doubting you, it just seems like a few different factors could be at play.
jeznez
Guest
Just the stability and strength of the scrum when he is on, Elliot is a superior ball runner but when Schwalger comes on the Chiefs scrum looks a little bit steadier in my opinion. It is hard to look at the hookers technique from a distance or on TV but quite often you can compare the scrum before and after a hooker's substitution and form an opinion. The most stark example I've ever seen of this was early in Polota-Nau's career he used to get subbed on for Adam Freier. In one match against the Chiefs, the Waratahs scrum went from backpedaling to taking tightheads - and he was the only substitution in either pack.
Suzy Poison
Guest
True, the Bulls still have to tour. However they are the same points as the Stormers, and third overall, not counting the conference system, so the table is deceptive like that. It's not unrealistic to see the Bulls get a bonus point victory against the Rebels. In which case they will top the Saffa confrence at the end of next weekend. The Stormers can only get 4 points for the bye. Also the mettle of the Highlanders will be tested this weekend. If the Sharks win, it allows them in with a sniff of making the top six, a Highlanders victory will shut the gate.
Justin
Guest
Not only is the defensive line hard to breach but they pull off so many dominant tackles and drive the attack backwards. Its really quite incredible. Their lack of scoring power is a concern though. If they go behind in a big match will they be able to pull it back?
Geoff Brisbane now California
Guest
Yep agree Harry should be a cracker weekend.
Ben S
Roar Guru
I always find it curious when people say some hookers are good scrummagers but others are not. Why do you think Schwalger is an excellent scrummager?
jeznez
Guest
Schwalger is an excellent scrummaging number 2 and Taumalolo is more than a ball carrier these days. The Tongan scrum when he came on at LHP put the hammers on the ABs during the opening game of the RWC. I'm not sure where it came from for him but his improvement in the last twelve months has been phenomenal.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
G'day Leftie, for me the Stormers are the best team in the comp this year. I really enjoy watching their defensive, and find it just as entertaining as a team playing the razzle dazzle stuff. The organisation and discipline in deciding when and when not to counter ruck and contest is amazing. But It's likely they won't finish first, and then have to face the Chief's in NZ if the Chief's make it through to the final. If they can get a couple more bonus points in the next few weeks, they should be sitting pretty.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
Jiggles, so true. As In previous years, they do their stuff in a very clinical way but without the verve of other teams. The Stormers re great at their game but it doesn't get Ruth job done yet they persist.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
Yep, coaches. Very important to get things going in the right direction.......
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
The blues play has been uninspiring and unimaginative, almost like they lost their mojo
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
Suzy, I completely agree about the subplots. The great part is that there are many twists in every game, because there are still 8 rounds to go and there are plenty of great contests to come from teams with quite similar abilities on their day. The bulls do look good but they re similar to the crusaders in that they might hvr left their run too late but they can score bonus points that the stormers can't. With the chiefs it is important that you compete with them across the field and particularly in the try scoring stakes. Stormers struggle Burt can tackle. Bulls can as can the crusaders. But who will do it?
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
Suzy, I completely agree about the subplots. The great part is that there are many twists in every game, because there are still 8 rounds to go and there are plenty of great contests to come from teams with quite similar abilities on their day. The bulls do look good but they re similar to the crusaders in that they might hvr left their run too late but they can score bonus points that the stormers can't. With the chiefs it is important that you compete with them across the field and particularly in the try scoring stakes. Stormers struggle Burt can tackle. Bulls can as can the crusaders.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Yeah, totally. Ben Tameifuna has looked good (what a unit), and I think Elliot has shown improvements, and Taumalolo has been a great carrier, but I think technically the Crusaders should have the edge, especially as they are able to bench one of the Franks and/or Crockett. Funny you should mention the absence of Thorn because I recall reading an interview with Ben Franks (I think it was Ben) where he seemed pretty sore about Taumalolo's celebrations following a series of good scrums against him. Bit of agitation there!
AWCMONREF
Guest
Would prefer the Crusaders in the final they are proven finalist, don't know if the Chiefs are ready for finals football yet, don't get me wrong they're one of my favourite. teams love the style they're playing but the Crusaders are the ultimate proffessionals. Wouldn't write off the Stormers, Bulls or Brumbies yet, Jake White has done an excellent job with the Brumbies as has Wayne Smith with the Chiefs if these teams are finalist they owe these 2 great coaches a big thank you for a job well done...........
kiwi
Guest
Gold!!!
mikeylives
Guest
You heard it here first: O'Connor likes quiche. Oh, and the Brumbies will gather steam and win the title this year.