As London beckons for world basketball’s elite, Olympic glory is on the minds of many. On the men’s side of things, we have already seen nine nations qualify for the 12 team tournament, including everyone’s favourite, Dream Team USA.
18 men have been named to their preliminary roster including many from their 2008 gold-medal campaign. Most are expecting USA to successfully defend their gold.
However, despite the experts leaning towards a US gold medal finish, I question whether they will even be able to claim a medal of any colour.
USA enter the tournament on the back of their 2010 World Championship campaign which saw the side crowned champions in Turkey.
They boast a superstar line-up including five time NBA Champion Kobe Bryant, two time NBA MVP (possibly 3 after this season) LeBron James and the NBA Scoring Champion over the last 3 seasons Kevin Durant.
I could go on and help solidify everyone’s view that the USA will leave London with gold, but instead I am going to tell you why they will not claim a podium finish this year, for only the second time in their history.
The other was in the 1980 Moscow Olympics, in which Team USA did not compete due to the American Boycott.
Firstly, team USA are too predictable. They compete with a very American brand of play which is all about finding or creating mismatches and then taking advantage of them through their much patented isolation basketball.
This is all good in the NBA where defensive players cannot stand in the key for over three seconds, but in international basketball they can.
Weak side defenders will camp in the key and help on all US drives to the basket. With a lack in ball movement, USA’s isolation-based offence will struggle to find the gaps to create high percentage plays making them very predictable and easy to defend.
USA’s only hope to put points on the board will as usual fall into the hands of their defence which they will rely heavily on to force turnovers so they can create fast break baskets.
Secondly, team USA lacks a post presence. It just seems that now days no American basketball players at any level can play in the post with their back to the basket.
Even the most prolific inside scorer in the NBA Dwight Howard is severely lacking in his post game, as all he does is simply try to overpower his opponents rather than out pivot them through smart footwork.
With Dwight Howard out injured, expect team USA to have zero presence down low as the likes of Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin and Kevin Love will look to square up and face the basket once receiving the ball in the post.
This will just make the offence of team USA even more predictable and easy to defend. As for what their defensive presence in the post has to offer only Tyson Chandler is a threat but only as a help defender. His wire-thin frame can be taken advantage of by the bigger bodies, for example Marc Gasol of Spain or our very own Aleks Maric.
Lastly, Team USA lack three-point shooters. Obviously when taking a look at the preliminary roster they do have plenty of players who can hit the three but they lack in the sharp shooter department.
Ryan Anderson, Jason Terry and Joe Johnson are players that well and truly fit into team USA but were overlooked.
Of the current roster only Kevin Durant, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love and James Harden fit the mould of sharp shooters, however of them, probably only Kevin Durant and Kevin Love will make the final roster.
This lack in shooters will again make them easy to defend as USA will be unable to spread the floor leading to defences to collapse and clog the key.
With all this said, Team USA will still be extremely difficult to stop due simply to the fact that they will possess the 12 most athletic players in the tournament.
The key to stopping them is simple. All other teams need to do is take care of the ball and limit turnovers, take advantage of USA’s lean frontline in the post and defensively either play a zone defence or a loose man aimed at taking away USA’s high percentage plays.
Teams that will be able to do this whom of which have already qualified include Spain, Argentina, Brazil and Australia. With four teams who can potentially beat them already qualified, the USA better hope the likes of Lithuania and Greece, who have beaten them in the past, do not also qualify.
Fafete
Guest
They dont have a consistent 3 point shooter? broooo.... Kevin Durant? Are you kidding me? And clearly your theory about the key camping is all well and good but when there are players such as Melo and LBJ and Russ, they can draw those fouls? Sure your argument about bigs is all well and good but Team USA aren't dumb, they'll draw fouls. They'll attack the basket hard theyll put Gasol in early foul trouble? There are massive flaws in your argument. I see in your other comments your dwelling on such years as 2002, 2004 and 2006 the only players in there from this team is Lebron and Melo. and under coach K they are 50-1.....
Raj
Guest
To say the USA will not even get a medal is laughable, it shows how stupid you are. USA will get a medal and it will be GOLD. We don't have the best players in the world for nothing and they showed it last year in the medal game. You must have noticed how Spain tried to hard and played their best basketball yet USA never gave up the lead late in the 4th. We don't need a extremely dominant big man because Europe and the rest of the countries have pathetic shooting big men who can't push around the likes of Love, Howard and Chandler. Even though Howard is gone it wont matter though. We can play Lebron or even Durant at bigman and they are faster, and Lebron is outright stronger than any big men those silliy Europeans can put out on the floor. I will love to see your prediction turn utterly laughable when the US steam rolls everyone in the Olympics. I find it funny how you talked about there being no 3 second rule in the paint and that would therefore make the US predictable because other countries big men will be able to camp in the paint. You are forgetting our big men will be able to camp in the paint. Try getting past Tyson Chandler or other US big men if they dont have to move from the key. Our players are more athletic, smarter, and can adjust to any changes. All of those points you called disadvantages, while any person who watches basketball would call those advantages.
Sav
Roar Rookie
The USA are undersized at center not power forward. The reason players like Melo and Bron will play such big minutes at power forward for USA is because of the way the game is played internationally with power forwards being predominantly perimeter players. We have even seen that now in the NBA with some teams. As for Spain, Pau will rarely be in a situation where he will be marking up on Lebron or Melo, Ibaka might find himself in that situation but not often. If Spain play with the Gasol brothers together against USA, expect them to be in a zone defence otherwise expect only one of them to be on the court and to be on as center.
Michael
Guest
James you do know those undersized bigmen USA have that you are talking about come in at 6'8 265 pounds and 6'9 235 pounds right?? yes that is melo and lebron james.... what you seem to forget is that Ibaka or Pau gasol are going to have to somehow guard one of these guys all night, you really think they going to be succesful??? Oh and incase no one has noticed watch the increased amount of time lebron has been playing at power forward this season, that should give you an indication on how strong and big he is
Jonathan Healy
Roar Rookie
Also, Lebron and Kobe are - while not 'sharpshooters' per se - both strong outside shooters. Plus, I'm liking the look of harden for a spot. Their PGs have to be Rondo and CP3, anyone else *cough* Westbrook *cough* just won't create enough
Jonathan Healy
Roar Rookie
We should destroy Kyrie Irving's self esteem, convince him he'll never be any chance of getting picked for the US team and convince him to play for us.
Sav
Roar Rookie
I believe that to be a mistake of Coach K, to not take many bigs. It is a mistake which he hasn't had to pay for yet (key word "YET"). They as they did in the 2010 WC are going to go to London with no low post offensive presence and with no low post defensive presence outside of Chandler and an inexperienced Davis. USA got away with it in 2010 WC and didn't even play Chandler that much (only 8mpg) because of the opposition they faced. However, eventually lack of size will be an issue and I believe it to be in this tournament because when it comes to the Olympics you can't luck out with the draw, everyone is going to give it to you. If Spain or Greece face USA in a knock out stage game whether it be quarters, semi's, bronze or gold medal game and Spain or Greece are fully healthy, it wouldnt be a bad idea to put $100 or $200 on a USA loss. It will pay up big and you'll be laughing, trust me.
Sav
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't go as far to say that the team sent by the USA to the WC was a C-team, that is just an insult to the calibre of players they had. Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring the season before the WC and the season after. Derrick Rose won NBA mvp the season after the WC. Lamar Odom had just won an NBA championship and Chauncey Billups went into it as a former NBA champion and finals MVP. Danny Granger had just come off two seasons in which he averaged 25 and 24 points per game. Tyson Chandler the season after the WC helped play a big role in Dallas' championship. Russel Westbrook and Kevin Love were a part of that team also and they without doubt will make the team going to London. They had a really good team at the WC and as a basketball fan I like to see the best play the best and i was very dissapointed to see them dodge the likes of Spain, Serbia and Greece. I'm sure a lot of people were dissapointed. With that said it wasn't USA's fault they didn't it was just the luck of the draw and how everything worked out. This year I expect to see a very tightly contested Olympic games. I hope to see Australia play USA at some point, and I really hope USA plays the likes of Spain or Greece in the knock out stages. It is going to make for a great tournament and I hope I'll be here at the end of August writing an article titled "I told you so." If not I'll write an article titled "MMMMHH... humble pie." Regardless of what it is titled I hope your there to read it. Thanks for reading this one.
traread
Guest
I haven't fully read through the comments but: "Secondly, team USA lacks a post presence. It just seems that now days no American basketball players at any level can play in the post with their back to the basket. Even the most prolific inside scorer in the NBA Dwight Howard is severely lacking in his post game, as all he does is simply try to overpower his opponents rather than out pivot them through smart footwork. " Coach K traditionally doesn't take a big group of interior players to the Olympics, tending to have 1 guy in the middle play a majority of minutes & be a defensive stopper... That guy this year is Tyson Chandler. In 2008 it was Dwight... In 2010 it was Chandler... As I said this year it'll be Chandler... With Kevin Love & possibly Anthony Davis as a solid backup. I don't agree that this is a valid arguement.
bigaction
Guest
Hate to rain on your pessimistic parade, but USA went undefeated in the world championships and won the championship! They did this with a B, maybe even C-team. That means they were devoid of all their best players, yet still went on to go undefeated and win a championship....at the host country no less. You can say all you want of who didn't have to play who, or what players weren't availiable for some teams. But the results are USA won the world championship with zero players from the 2008 olympic gold medal (by the way, they went undefeated in '08 also) team. They were also using 9 players with zero international experience. Plus they lost 3 big men just from their training camp and had another big man (Stoudemire) drop out.
Sav
Roar Rookie
They could play in the NBA if given an opportunity. Nikola Pekovic is a perfect example. I remember watching the 2009/2010 Greek League finals, Olympiakos vs Panathinaikos, and seeing Kurt Rambis in the crowd. i was thinking to myself, what the hell is he doing there. Next thing you know a month or two or however long later, Kurt Rambis the head coach of the Timberwolves signs one of the Panathinaikos players, Nikola Pekovic, to a contract. At the time, I'm reading this i think "he'll do ok, he is physically strong with a good back to the basket game and can play the pick and roll pretty well." His first season he doesn't get an opportunity, then didn't get an opportunity this season until Darko went down injured. all of a sudden Pekovic is dropping huge numbers and finishes the month of January with 16ppg, 10rpg, 1bpg and continues those numbers for the rest of the season. I knew he was going to be good, but i had no idea he'd be that good. What I'm trying to say is just because they are not in the NBA doesn't mean they are not good enough. That last year Pekovic spent in Europe, Aleks Maric was all-euroleague. In Greece, Sofoklis Schortsanitis and Ioannis Bourousis at rival Olympiakos were always regarded better centers. My thinking is, if Pekovic can do that against Americans week in week out, then anyone else with the same skill set can do that and if thats the case I believe that this USA team with their lack of size are really going to struggle because outside the NBA are some very good big men. I like you and i thank you for reading. feel free to comment on any of my writings on this site because you actually have substance in your arguments.
Sav
Roar Rookie
I got to be honest prior to the Eurobasket 2011 I didn't expect much from FYROM but they surprised me. They beat Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and just when I thought they couldn't do any more to surprise me they beat Lithuania in Lithuania to advance to the semi's. FYROM were unbelievable that tournament and you shouldn't call them a gift. They almost could have added Russia to that list of beaten opponents but they unfortunately lost on a buzzer beater.
Aaron
Guest
If these players are as awesome in the low post as you say they are and the NBA is devoid of low post talent as you claim (which I agree that the back to the basket bigman is now rare) Why are they not playing in the NBA? Becuase they are big fish in small ponds that's why. I'm not completely ruling out an upset but dude come on, no way team USA leaves without a medal. There are no teams balanced enough with a game changing low post threat to fully expose team USA size weakness. Hell with love and bosh those guys have enough range on their shot that they need to be guarded which will not allow teams to pack it into the paint, which opens the cutting lanes for griffin, wade, Kobe, lebron etc to attack the rim and this team will be brutal defensively and any turnovers they force you know they are going to run and run hard. Cashing it in on the fast break.
bigaction
Guest
It doesn't matter if USA beat brazil by only 2 points. They won the game and went undefeated to win the championship! This is not soccer where you can end in a tie. Basketball is determined by wins and losses, and USA won! If you want to make irrelevant comparisons to who teams beat to win a championship, how about Spain? They barely beat poland by 5 points in the eurobasket 2011 and then were given a gift of having to play something called fyr macedonia in the semi-final....even though it was a less-than-inspiring win to reach the final. Poland and fyr macedonia? Are you kidding me??
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
When the NBA brought their three-point line in, three point percentages actually dropped.
Sav
Roar Rookie
Also I don't believe the difference between the NBA three point line and the FIBA three point line makes for much of a difference. Just to give you an example Chauncey Billups in the 2010 WC shot 32% from three on 14/44 shooting. In the NBA season prior to that tournament he shot 39% and the NBA season after the tournament shot 40%. Basiclally what I'm saying is that the line being slighty closer doesn't necessarily translate to it being easier.
Sav
Roar Rookie
You make good points, we will just have to wait and see as to how everything transpires in London. About the players I mentioned above they are not just big bodies. Ioannis Bourousis, Aleks Maric and Sofoklis Schortsanitis are former All-Euroleague first team members (2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively) and all have and still compete for some of the biggest clubs in Europe. They are terrific post players especially in the case of Maric and Schortsanitis who have a lot of great moves down low.
Sav
Roar Rookie
Don't forget Juan Carlos Navarro, Jose Calderon, Sergio Llul or potential Rubio replacement Sergio Rodriguez are in the Spanish backcourt. We're just going to have to wait and see to find out what this US team will do. I can understand your confidence within the Dream Team but after past failures in 2002 WC, 2004 Olympics and 2006 WC and the fact that the most recent of teams never played a Spain, Greece or Serbia yet was pushed to the brink by a weaker team in Brazil maybe you shouldn't be overly confident.
B-Rock
Roar Guru
James Post defense is about much more than just weight - speed, agility, strength and leaping ability are all critical physical attributes but most important is the mental side: positioning, experience, toughness, etc. I was trying to argue that at 110kgs Chandler is hardly a lightweight and he makes up for any weight disadvantage vs some of those mentioned above with other attributes. He's not defensive POY in the NBA for nothing. Also, to say that the heavier players above will "have their way with him down low" simply due to a 10kg weight advantage is just too simplistic. From a post offense perspective, dont forget LBJ here - he has transformed himself into a strong post scorer this year and could be dangerous given the lack of double teams he will see with the talent surrounding him. In terms of outside shooting, I dont deny this is a relative weakness of the US team (i.e. vs. transition scoring, iso, mid-range, perimeter defense, etc) but it is not a major weakness in absolute terms. Agree that 35% is probably a good threshold for someone to be considered a strong 3pt shooter but how do you factor in a closer FIBA 3pt line and more open looks from less defensive attention given the other talent on the floor for the US? There will be plenty of open looks for the likes of Durant and Love as they have to defend Lebron in the post, CP3 handling the ball, etc. Happy to defer to you on the depth of the Spanish squad - Outside of the NBA and NBL I am fairly limited in my knowledge of players. Saying that, Rubio is still a major loss - he is one of the top PGs in the world in terms of creating for team mates - every team needs that quality, particularly in Int'l ball. Saying that - do you think he is better suited to the more open NBA style than the slower half court oriented FIBA style? He seemed to play better for the Wolves than he did Barca no? Finally, I think Bynum would be good but he is a child mentally - putting him on the global stage would leave the US open to embarrasment, so I can understand not including him. I think Anthony Davis would be good, the Christian Laetner of the team 20yrs on. He is probably far too "wire thin" for you though
Aaron
Guest
Regardless of the players they took to the WC none of the Olympic squad were part of the squad. So now they are taking the best parts of the that team and the 08 Olympic team. The teams that are most likely to give them trouble are Spain an Argentina. Spain will have the front court depth with the gasols and ibaka but seriously lack the back court ability to match up with team USA. Chandler will make life awful for pau Gasol and Marc Gasol and ibaka aren't going to take a game over offensively. In the back court your looking at getting alot of back court production out of Rudy Fernandez and your kidding if you think lebron or Durant or Kobe are overly concerned at the prospect of guarding him. Team USA's backcourt will run wild against every backcourt they are playing. Argentina were a veteran team at the last olympics and now they are four years older. I also do find it laughable that you use the argument that "they almost lost 1 close game and had some other team managed to win then they could have lost." Fact is they did win and the rest of the teams you mentioned didn't.