Cycling Australia has laid out a June 17 deadline to select one rider to represent Australia in the Olympic Games time trial. Will this be our Tour de France champion Cadel Evans? Surprisingly, there’s no guarantee.
Evans, if he is there will be one of the favourites to win, but he says he won’t let that compromise his preparation for the Tour de France.
He wants the selectors to trust him on past performance, no matter what his form is in June. As the Tour de France champion, he deserves their trust.
The problem, though, is that Richie Porte of Team Sky has a very good claim to the Australian Olympic time trial place, as to a lesser extent do the three time world time trial champion Michael Rogers (Team Sky) and the 2012 Australian time trial champion Luke Durbridge (Orica-GreenEdge).
All four will take part in the Dauphine Libere race, an important stage race in France that takes place between June 3rd and June 10th.
There’s a 53 kilometre individual time trial in Dauphine Libere, so should the best Australian finisher in the Dauphine time trial get the Olympic place? If it’s Evans, yes, but if not then no.
It might sound crazy but a better guide to Evans’ Olympic potential won’t be a time trial in June 2012, it’s a time trial that happened in July 2011.
Evans was second in the final time trial of the 2011 Tour de France, seven seconds behind the world champion Tony Martin, but one minute 23 seconds ahead of fifth placed Porte, and four minutes 37 seconds ahead of the next Australian, Stuart O’Grady, in 55th place.
That’s the kind of form Evans will be in at the end of the 2012 Tour de France, and that’s the form he can take into the Olympic time trial ten days later.
Richie Porte is good, and he could even win the Olympic title in the future, but Evans can win it now.
The idea of having a selection race, like the Dauphine Libere time trial would be, works in many sports, but it doesn’t work in elite road cycling. There’s too much else going on, even in an Olympic year.
Whereas many sports plan their programmes around Olympic Games, and the Games are their pinnacle of achievement, a male pro road racer can’t do that. The Olympics aren’t the number one target in pro cycling – the Tour de France is.
The Olympics were almost grafted onto cycling when they went open in 1996, before then the pros who took part in races like the Tour weren’t eligible for the Games.
Evans is right to say he’s not willing to accelerate his Tour de France preparation to be on top form at the Dauphine Libere. He’s asking the selectors to pick him on past form.
Bradley Wiggins, who will be one of Evans’ big rivals in the Tour, doesn’t have to do it, and his selection by Team GB for the Olympic time trial is assured.
But why is it too much to expect Evans to peak for a day in the Dauphine Libere then again at the Tour de France?
Because the kind of form that’s needed in the Tour must be built slowly. In fact the longer the build period the longer top form lasts and the better it will be.
Evans is building up to this year’s Tour de France with the confidence that only a Tour winner can.
Lance Armstrong designed the blueprint for Tour preparation during his run of seven consecutive victories, but he only won the Dauphine Libere twice in the same period. And in 2003 he reckons that excellent form in the Dauphine nearly lost him the Tour.
Tour form was that finely balanced almost ten years ago, but it is even more of a knife edge thing now. Evans wasn’t half the racer in the 2011 Dauphine that he was in the Tour. Bradley Wiggins almost caught him in the Dauphine long time trial and had the Brit not crashed he wouldn’t have done that to Evans in the Tour.
Evans timed his Tour prep perfectly last year, because he got stronger as the race progressed. If he does the same this year he can win again, and he will still have enough form to medal and even win gold in London.
That’s what Bradley Wiggins is trying to do, and British Cycling is letting him do it. Cycling Australia must show the same confidence in Evans.
dom25
Roar Rookie
I think that you guys are forgetting that the olympics is just days after the Tour. Cadel will be putting in his all to try and win the race. Cancellara has already said that he will not give it his all at the Tour and Tony Martin may not ride the tour with his latest injuries. Luke Durbridge is only 20 so he may not start the tour or if he does he might not finish it so he will be fresh. Michael Rogers may not ride the tour with team sky having such a talented list. Most likely someone who hasnt ridden the tour will win as we all remember the effects the Giro had on Contador's Tour last year and that was a month late, the time trial is just ten days later. Riding well in the last week of the tour is not just about form its about who has fatigued the least. Sure, Cadel would probably beat anyone who has ridden the full tour at there full potential but if i was a selector i would choose someone who hasn't ridden the Tour.
Chris Sidwells
Guest
Agree with you 100%, what's more Evans hasn't dug into his 2012 form once this year, which means he could be even stronger in the 2012 Tour de France than he was in 2011, and I believe he will get better through the Tour, so his form will be 100% for the Olympic time trial.
Omega10
Roar Rookie
I'm afraid I have to disagree with those pushing the Porte/Durbridge/Rogers bandwagon and raise my hand for the Tour champ. I think he should be the first picked for the time trial and road race. Cadel Evans is our best cyclist and probably the best Australian ever to grace the game and it is inconcievable to me that he wouldn't be picked. With all due respect to Australia's other fine riders, Cadel is in a class above them. Porte would be my second choice as he has a good recent track record at World Championships and stage races in the Time Trial and for my money it is one Olympics too soon for Durbridge and Rogers hasn't shown any real time trial form since the last of his championship victories some years ago and would be a risky bet. I know there are some who subscribe to the theory that you can't judge time trial form at the end of a three week tour. I disagree and believe if Cadel Evans can find the form that he had at the end of last year's Tour de France then he will be in the mix in London. He was only seven seconds down on Tony Martin in the long time trial at the end of the Tour last year closer than anyone else, including Wiggins, got to the German all year. My last thought is a fervent hope that politics and favouritism, a cancer that has plagued Australian cycling selection policy for many years, doesn't rear it's ugly head yet again and the best team possible is on the road in London and not at home watching it on television.
Major Tom
Guest
I agree- Cadel should get the nod if all the contenders are in the TDF, but if Richie Porte or Luke Durbridge were to skip the TDF and just focus on the Olympic time trial then I think either of them would be the better option.
Jacob
Guest
Glad you mentioned the non-lyrcra clad comment. I thought I was the only one interested that doesn't wear the outfits. Yes, let's forward on to Cycling Aus. Cheers, Jacob
Chris Sidwells
Guest
Sorry Beau, you are absolutely right mate, Australia do have two spots in the time trial. My mistake- still say Evans should be an automatic choice though.
Tom
Guest
If there are 2 spots as Beau says then I am with Chris that Cadel should be in one spot and the results of the Dauphine TT should determine the second spot, I am leaning towards Durbridge on current form (but form does ebb and flow).
tommy
Guest
Enjoyed the article. Tough gig to be a selector.. 4 great options but I don't think anyone could argue against Cadel being selected. Mick Rogers has been off the radar for a while. Where is he at?
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
Great piece, explains some very sports-specific information that a non-lycra-clad-cycyling-fan like me just doesn't understand. Please forward this onto Cycling Australia.
Beau
Guest
Australia has two spots for the Time Trial because they finished in the top 6 at World Champs in Copenhagen last year.
Alex
Guest
Winning a time trial at the end of a 3 week race is totally different to a one off event. There is such a small gap between the Olympics and the tour that this needs consideration. If Richie Porte or Derbridge were to forgo the tour in favour of staying fresh this needs to be considered by the selectors. Evans has never dominated a time trial anyway, so I think a gold unlikely with Martin and Cancellara in the mix.
Darryl Kotyk
Roar Pro
Very informative piece, Chris and I agree with all you've said. I especially agree that Evans' performance in July 2011 is a better guide than any other to determine his qualifications for the Olympic Time Trial. The TdF has definitely become a tour that is planned out and requires finite calculations and preparations in order to win (and repeat). Let Cadel focus on another TdF victory and carry through to an appearance (and hopefully a win) in the Olympic TT. It could pan out to be quite a summer for Mr. Evans.