The equalisation policies operating in the AFL over the past 25 years have intentionally worked to create an environment whereby the majority of clubs can experience a relatively equal number of ups and downs over a period of time.
This has given rise to the expression ‘the premiership window’.
The term serves to describe the period of around three to six seasons during which a club has the best chance at challenging for the premiership.
Before this, most clubs will experience a period of bottoming out and rebuilding to become a challenger in the future.
After some 25 years of such policies, we can discern a bit of a pattern about how this phenomenon plays out, also noting that there are many variables and exceptions to the general rule.
I have seen pundits liken the premiership window to a clock face, with each five-minute interval representing a season. This gives us a complete cycle, lasting 12 years.
We can imagine midnight representing the bottoming out of a club.
At five and ten past, the club is in the process of rebuilding, collecting those early draft picks that could produce future champions.
At quarter past, a club may be in a position to knock on the door of the top eight. They might just miss out, but show potential for a further rise up the ladder.
At twenty past, a club will enter the top 8 and play finals for the first time in a few years. They may even win a final, but will not quite be ready to challenge the top four.
At twenty-five past, the club enters the premiership window in earnest. They break into the top four, make the preliminary final and give themselves a chance to win it.
At half past the hour, with three consecutive years in finals, the club will start the season as one of the premiership favourites.
The team will be at the peak of its powers, will have the perfect blend of maturity and young stars. Most importantly, they will have that hardened finals experience.
At 35 and 40 past the hour, the premiership window remains open. The teams that can overcome mounting injury lists and the mental pressures of staying up will push for a final hurrah.
At quarter-to, the hand is starting to swing upwards; there are signs of an ageing list and things don’t fall into place on the field like they once did in the previous five seasons.
Yet there is still enough talent to stay in the mix for a finals spot – only just.
At ten to and five to, it’s the slippery slope downwards.
Champions have retired, mid-range draft picks haven’t come on and there are changes in coaching staff.
It becomes a case of keeping your head above water until you can get those low draft picks coming through again.
So there we have it – a cycle that lasts some 12 seasons. Some clubs might be able to stay up for eight seasons; many will be lucky to do it for four seasons.
Some clubs are able to reduce the length of their cycle to nine or so seasons, with bottoming out meaning nothing more than failing to reach the final eight.
Other clubs get it very wrong and stretch out the cycle to 15 or so seasons, like Richmond making two finals appearances in 30 years.
To test the concept, I thought I would look through two real life examples. Let us start with Port Adelaide.
1997 (Midnight): First season of the club. Actually does a bit better than expected. Finishes ninth.
1998 (12:05): Finishes 10th with nine wins.
1999 (12:10): Finishes seventh with 12 wins.
2000 (12:15): Finishes 14th, with seven wins. Their first finals appearance the previous year probably came sooner than expected.
2001 (12:20): Jump into top four. Finishes third with 16 wins.
2002 (12:25): Well and truly in the premiership window now. Finishes top with 18 wins, but fails to make Grand Final.
2003 (12:30): Finishes top again with 18 wins, but fails to make Grand Final again.
2004 (12:35): Third consecutive year on top with 17 wins. This time they break through for their first premiership.
2005 (12:40): Scrapes into top eight. Finishes eighth with 11 wins and a draw.
2006 (12:45): Stumbles to 12th with eight wins.
2007 (12:50): Finishes second with 15 wins. Fluke a last hurrah, but get thrashed in Grand Final by Geelong.
2008 (12:55): Slides to 13th with 7 wins. This is a permanent slide. The rebuilding phase starts in earnest. Within a couple of seasons, only a handful of players are left from the 2004 premiership.
Another example of a premiership window clock, albeit one where they failed to make it count, is the Western Bulldogs.
2003 (Midnight): Finishes last with three wins and a draw. Bottom out. Draft Adam Cooney, Farren Ray and Jade Rawlings. Matthew Boyd is a rookie elevation.
2004 (12:05): Finishes 14th with five wins. Rebuilding has started. Draft Ryan Griffen and Tom Williams.
2005 (12:10): Finishes ninth with 11 wins. Draft Shaun Higgins and Dylan Addison.
2006 (12:15): Finishes eighth with 13 wins. Win a final. Trade for Jason Akermanis and draft Jarrod Harbrow.
2007 (12:20): Temporary drop to 13th with nine wins and draw. Trade for Ben Hudson and Tim Callan. Draft Jarrad Grant, Callan Ward, Easton Wood and Scott Welsh.
2008 (12:25): Finishes third with 15 wins and draw. Makes preliminary final.
2009 (12:30): Finishes third with 15 wins. Makes preliminary final. Now in the middle of premiership window.
2010 (12:35): Finishes fourth with 14 wins. Makes preliminary final for third consecutive occasion, but misses out on Grand Final again.
2011 (12:40): Finishes 10th with nine wins. Loses a few from retirement and players move to new teams. Slow slide down the ladder starts.
2012 (12:45): Likely to finish lower than 10th. The same is expected for next season.
In both case studies, and with other examples as well, it is an identifiable pattern which doesn’t necessarily stick to a smooth rise-and-fall pattern.
As always, you will find anomalies, bolters, temporary steep drops before the trend continues as expected, or final hurrahs before the inevitable bottoming out.
The entry of the two new teams confuses matters somewhat with the monopolising of the best young talent in the country and the existence of temporary trade rules to assist the rapid development of squads.
On top of that, the introduction of a limited form of free agnecy, plus the increasing gap between the haves and have nots that assist some clubs in maintaining very high levels of football department expenditure, means the clock model might change in the ensuing years.
Geelong has managed to stay relatively up now for some 25 years, while Collingwood has seemingly managed to reduce the length of the down periods. West Coast has done this even more successfully.
Incidentally, those latter two are the AFL’s two wealthiest clubs.
It’s possible that in this new era of 18 teams, limited free agency and football department expenditure disparities, the premiership window model might become vaguer and less discernible.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Yep, another year of grace for them - you'd have to think Reid would be very, very high on the shopping list. The Giants are well served up forward with Cameron, Patton and Izzy will be given another year to develop - throw in Setanta, and a couple of handy small forwards as well. So Reid complements things nicely as the other bookend.
Matt F
Roar Guru
He'd slot in very nicely with the Giants TC. It would also put him in the same city as his brother, though in different teams. Imagine that rivalry in a few years! Don't GWS still have this year to sign uncontracted players as well? They'd be able to get him without a trade then, unlike everybody else.
Redb
Roar Guru
Matt F, Thats a fair list. No wonder Collingwood is baulking at Cloke.
Matt F
Roar Guru
On the small SCG as well! With Goodes floating in as a 3rd tall! I think I need to lie down! Sadly I can't see it happening, especially given that Josh Kennedy will be due a very substantial (and much deserved) upgrade this season.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Cloke and Reid would certainly present some tasty tall forward options.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Interestingly, I've previously read that of those players, the best catch at a decent price would be Reid, and with Cornes playing just the one year, wouldn't GWS love someone like Reid in their backline?
Matt F
Roar Guru
I certainly hope so TC. Maybe we should go and sign up Cloke! Certainly solve our tall forward issues! I can't see us having the cap space needed for that though I can dream! Nathan - We've traded a couple of times. We got Seaby from you and also Jason Ball back in the day. Iincidently Ball is another example of us trading away a 1st round pick for an established player, and another who won us a premeirship. Actually that seems to be another common them among Swans trading/drafting. Don't draft ruckmen but trade for them.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Redb - Apparently Collingwood still have players like Reid, Wellingham, Beams, Blair, Keefe O'Brien and Sidebottom out of contract as well. If Cloke stays then they'll have to let at least one or two of those go. Apparently Sidebottom and Keefe are basically signed. It's hard to see them losing Beams or O'Brien either. If Cloke leaves then they will probably put a fair bit of that money to keeping some of these guys before looking outside the club. They might have some money to go after another player or two but I can't see them spending the money they are offering Cloke on a player from outside the club.
Redb
Roar Guru
Sydney have missed Mumford and Goodes. Mumford in particular was a huge loss. I still rate Sydney's chances at top 4.
Matt F
Roar Guru
I should point out that I'm basing this mainly on what I've seen with the NRL over the past decade or so. Generally speaking a club rises and wins/challenges for a competition. It's star players then start to demand more cash given the success. In order to give them pay rises and keep within the salary cap they have to get rid of their squad players, or starting players who get offered alot more money from another club. Obviously the fact that the NRL have unrestricted free agency compared to AFL's restricted version will mean they won't be exactly alike but I do expect some similarities.
Redb
Roar Guru
If Collingwood dont sign Cloke, then they will have big dollars in their cap to chase players from other clubs, especially seeing as existing big names have already signed probably on the basis of staying together at the Pies. Pendles for example probably accepted less to stay.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
That's right, especially with Buckley having blooded so many players this season (by necessity), you'd have to think a couple of players will be looking for new clubs next year - especially if Cloke gets re-signed (which is still an if)
Nathan of Perth
Guest
A number of Collingwood depth players currently standing up may be writing their meal tickets for next year - when the normal starters return next season these depth players have proven they a worth a starting spot at other clubs.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Matt F yes, I think things like that might happen. A club like Collingwood ties up its big names, that costs dollars, little room in the cap, and a 26 yo who is only barely in the top 22, maybe even already battling for his spot with up and comers, not offered too much, might be keen for a change, especially where he is second in line for a particular role, ruck, or full forward, or whatever it is. I think we might be surprised at what falls out, and plenty of opportunities will emerge for players and clubs alike - the cap will ensure that it won't be all one way traffic.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Probably worth noting that West Coast and Sydney rarely trade - probably a sign of the dangers of trading with either team...
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Well, lets see... 2007 - 2 first round, 2 second round picks Gained by trading Judd and #46 to Carlton for Kennedy, #3 and #20 Further traded picks #30 and #35 (which it got in exchange for Mitch Morton to Richmond, which I think the Tiges did well out of) to the Doggies for pick #22. No funny smell there, got three successful picks (Masten, Ebert, Scott Selwood) and a dud in Tony Notte. Had pick #13 as ordinary first round pick. 2008 - 1 first round, 1 end-of-first round priority pick, 1 second round pick, 1 third round pick Gained priority pick due to winning less than five (although notably they managed to get two good home victories in the tail end of the season that, if they were tanking would have put them below Melbourne getting #1 and #17 instead of #2 and #18). Low finishing position attributable to the enormous Judd and Cousins shaped-hole punched into a side whose premiership was built almost entirely on the Judd-Cousins-Kerr Trinity. Got wins on Naita at #2, Shuey at #18, not looking promising on Swift and Smith for the second and third round picks though. 2009 - 1 first round, 2 second round No priority/compo picks as the Eagles were on the way back up, doing well late in the season (injury gods were to destroy their next season) Got a #22 by dint of mega trade - off loaded Staker, Seaby, #39 and #55 for Dalziell (a swap of depth players) #22 and #118 (unused). Other spots were #7 and #23 - Shappard at #7 looks like a successful pick, of the second round picks, Wheedon looks like it's not going to happen and Stevens is a maybe. 2010 - The Year the Injury Gods Destroyed - 1 first round, 1 end-of-first round (devalued by 7 picks), 1 second round, 1 fourth round Traded # 45 for a Third Round Compo pick to Collingwood, which I don't think we used. Got #4 by dint of finishing last, #26 as a priority pick for number of wins (which in most years is a pretty normal second round pick) #29 as normal first round pick. Success stories were Gaff at #4, Darling at #26, Brennan was a Father/Son at Rnd 4, #62 and is looking positive and Lycett is one that probably has a lot of work ahead at #29. 2011 - 1 first round, 1 end-of-first-round, 1 third-round Enormously compromised draft again but... Got the priority pick (#28) by trading Ebert and #45 for #28 and #49 Used pick #49 to get Josh Hill, so ended up selecting: Got Murray Newman at #23 as our normal first-round, McInnes at #28 with the traded pick, and Hams at #63 with a normal pick. Of these three, only the late-rounder Hams as kicked a ball in anger yet. So, all in all, only two additional picks were granted to the Eagles, both of which were end-of-rounders (one of which a bizarre 26 instead of a 'normal' 18), not a single #1 in the lot. All other additional top 20 picks were fairly traded for.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Thanks guys. What can I say, when you post enough comments eventually you'll post one that's worth reading :)
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Plenty of joy at the trade and draft table since 2008, which points to a few good years for the Swans, you'd have to conclude.
Matt F
Roar Guru
That's a real possibility (though restricted free-agents can't leave if their existing club can match the offer.) the trade off is that good depth players and 15-22 ranked players at the big clubs who would generally be regular 22 players at other clubs, will eventually leave for opportunity or money (as the salary cap is obviously tighter on the top clubs and they will use most of it on the big stars.) If these players go to a club near the bottom, they could help turn that club into a finals contender which then makes them a more attractive destination for bigger name players. For example Melbourne won't get Cloke given their position on the ladder but they might be able to get some fringe players from Collingwood or another big club who want more game time, or maybe (if they're lucky) a 15-22 ranked player from those same clubs who are playing on a back-up players wage due to the salary cap. These players won't make melbourne a premiership contender but they might (with more development of Melbourne's younger players) be able to turn Melbourne into a finals contender looking to make the next step which suddenly makes them a potential destination for a player of Cloke's ilk in the future.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Yeah I still have very, very, very nice dreams about the 2009 trade week! A look at how we used our 1st round picks since 2000 really hammers the point home as well i think. We traded our 1st round picks in 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2005 and got Paul Williams, Barry Hall, Darren Jolly and Ted Richards. Admittedly all but Jolly also cost us at least one other pick as well. I think we can confidently claim that all of those players are/were massive players for the club over time. 3 of them were key players in our premiership and Ted Richards is currently in potentially All-Australian form in defence for us. The 1st round picks we used in the draft gave us Jarrad Mcveigh, Josh Willoughby, Daniel O'Keefe (you left him off our 2006 list) Patrick Veszpremi, Lewis Johnston, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta, Jed Lamb (2010) and Tom Mitchell (2011.) Willoughby and O'keefe were cut without playing a game. Veszpremi and Johnston played a couple of games but didn't make an impact and were both traded to other clubs. Johnston isn't playing for Adelaide whilst Veszpremi has started playing for the Bulldogs. Mcveigh is now our co-captain whilst Jetta and Rohan look like turning into very good players from their time so far (though Rohan just can't stop getting injured sadly.) Lamb and Mitchell haven't played yet, though Tom Mitchell (Father/Son) is coming back from injury and playing very well in the reserves. So basically, the 1st round picks that we've traded have all been big success stories while the ones we've used in the draft have had very mixed results. As a side note, Luke Parker and Alex Johnson were both taken after Jed Lamb in 2010 yet Parker and Johnson are regulars in our 22 whilst Lamb hasn't played a game. Perhaps another example of the lottery in action.