With the Tour de France now looming over the peloton, Cadel Evans vs Bradley Wiggins is a common thread of discussion. Should Cadel by worried by the surging Wiggins?
I think so, yes. If Wiggins is at 100 percent now and Evans improves, as he will, they will be quite evenly matched.
But Wiggins says he’s not at 100 percent yet, and he has a super team. Unless a miracle of inspiration happens between now and the Tour, Evans doesn’t.
Team strength counts in any Tour de France, but particularly in this one. There are lots of stages on which good riders could try and ambush the race, Tommy Voeckler-style, and get a lead that cannot be ignored by the favourites.
The favourite’s teams must be wide awake to this and they will have to work extra hard to control things.
Then there will be the times when Evans has to attack. He can’t leave this Tour to the time trials.
On their Criterium du Dauphine form the combined strength of Ritchie Porte, Chris Froome and Mick Rogers for Team Sky will be difficult to evade. Wiggins can just stick behind them and take out Evans when Team Sky drag him back to heel. The Australian really has his back against the wall, or it looks that way now.
But there is a glimmer of hope for Evans. Well, two actually, but they are both conditional.
He says he’s not, Team Sky say he’s not, but if Wiggins is on top form now he will struggle to hold that for another five and a half weeks.
The other factor, a bigger factor perhaps, is Wiggins himself. Will he cope with the pressure of being his country’s biggest hope ever of winning the Tour de France, of having a route that suits him like no other ever will, of not having the searing attacks of Alberto Contador to contend with, and the fact that he is at just the right moment in his career to win the Tour?
Tour 2012 has the hallmark of an all or nothing situation for Wiggins. He has to win this one or he won’t win at all.
In truth it’s not quite like that, but the hype will be about that scenario, and it will pile on Wiggins’ head between now and the Tour.
The thing is, Wiggins is a very emotional person. He doesn’t come across as such, apart from the quite rare times when he lets his chimp out of the cage.
The chimp is what British Cycling and Team Sky’s mind engineer, a psychiatrist called Steve Peters, calls the emotional side we all have. Our chimps are irrational, they get distracted by things we can’t control, like how fast a rival cyclist is. Chimps are bad, and must stay locked away.
That’s the Team Sky way. They deal with logic and the certainty of training, sound equipment, good nutrition and ticking off all of the factors that must be in place to win a race.
The Tour de France is no different, except it is. It’s a huge deal and Wiggins know it.
He’s steeped in the history of cycling, and he knows how big being the first British bike racer to win the Tour will be. Maybe not in the country as a whole, but inside cycling, and Wiggins is steeped inside cycling.
He grew up reading then hearing the stories, and particularly stories about the British bike racer who died trying to win the Tour de France, Tom Simpson.
Wiggins was born in Ghent, Belgium, where Simpson was based. As a child he lived in the same apartment block as one of Simpson’s daughters, and when he was a young amateur he raced in Belgium, helped by the man who helped Simpson, Albert Beurick.
It’s an emotional and very charged story, so charged that Beurick, who died recently could hardly speak about Wiggins without choking up. He reminded him so much of Simpson.
It’s all part of Wiggins’ chimp, and it has to stay locked away like all the other emotions he invests in his life and in bike racing.
It will be a strain. You can hear it in tweets like; “Need to get my press conference head on start playing the game, remember key messaging and avoid taking the bait #robotmode”
And he admits the whole press thing puzzle him. He finds it difficult not to react emotionally to questions, to just answer what’s being asked and not look for hidden meaning or react emotionally.
If the chimp stays locked away Wiggins will win the 2012 Tour de France, but if he gets out who knows what will happen. He might lose, or maybe chimp power will propel Wiggins to the biggest victory margin for years.
thurmcord
Guest
Is there any buzz for sammy sanchez. He is a good climber, great descender, good time trialist. There is only 2 hilltop finishes so descent may be a way he and evans can seperate from other gc riders.
DanMan
Guest
huh. should have done a quick check first. yes he is out with injury.
DanMan
Guest
Both schlecks named in their TDF squads. Chris Horner to miss from Radioshack . . .
hamleyn
Roar Guru
That's if Andy goes. Rumour has it he's out for 6 weeks with a fractured pelvis he sustained in that crash at the Dauphine.
liquorbox_
Guest
It depends if he is told to destroy himself for Wiggins, if he moves over halfway up the mountain and then manages to keep up then he has not done his job. As much as I want to see Wiggins v Evans, I would not be upset to see Wiggins get a flu the day before the tour and see Evans v Rogers, although I think Froome would be next in line for GC at Sky
Andy
Guest
I think the key will be to get Wiggins in yellow and make the whole of Team Sky do lots and lots of work chasing down breaks. If they do that for a week solid they'll get start to get tired and won't be able to top HC climbs with 3 lieutenants flanking Wiggins. That's when the Schlecks, Evans, Voekler and others need to hit it - and hit it hard. The right stage and the right lead-up and a determined bunch of GC contenders can put some serious time into Wiggo.
Tim
Guest
Everyone in the peleton knows that the only way to crack a guy like Wiggins is to hit him hard in the mountains. The Schleck brothers, Voekler and others will be looking to do this as much as possible. This will happen early and will help Evans who I believe can follow these guys a bit better than Wiggins. If Evans gets enough time off Wiggins by following these attacks and Wiggins cracks like he did at the Vuelta last year (he could have won it) then he won't get enough time back off Evans in the TTs especially the last one.
tommy
Guest
I know that he is in Wiggins team but Mick Rogers must be a top 10 contender? Great to see him back in form at the Dauphine. Counting down the days until the Tour!
Justin Curran
Guest
Ah, the question on everyone's lips isn't it? Obviously he should be worried. If you look at last year as a form guide, Wiggins season looks very much like Cadel's from last year (minus the Dauphine). And if Wiggins continues to crest HC climbs with three teammates it's going to make it very hard to take time away from him in the mountains. With Wiggins strength being time trialling, that only really leaves opportunistic grabs of seconds here and there much like what happened at the Dauphine. Cadel is going to need some other riders to hit some form and shake things up, because if Evans is the only concern for team Sky then Wiggins will probably win the tour. It is looking very grim indeed. I think our best hope is that Wiggins implodes under all the pressure.
Bobo
Guest
I can see a repeat of the Postal train this year. Domestiques like Rogers, Froome and Porte dropping team leaders. Won't that be fun?
DanMan
Guest
I think there will be lots of attacking on the mountains - and earlier in the race too. With the 2 TT the goats will be hell bent on making an impression in both the pyrenees and alps, not leaving it for only one attack. The more guys keen to attack will lead to more attacks and this should help Cadel; otherwise sky will just TT to the top of each mountain stage.
Bobo
Guest
Vandenbroecke has to be mentioned in dispatches, too. A very impressive fifth at the Dauphine.
Bobo
Guest
Evans and Wiggins are both emotional men who struggle to keep a lid on their private personas in public. While neither man has the focussed narcissism that led to some previous riders dominating the race, and either could throw a mental dummy spit, each has shown the desire, determination and physical preparation to win le Tour. However, I think Team Sky provides better support than BMC. If Evans cannot match Wiggins on the first TT, and with only 2 summit finishes, he will struggle against the (slightly) younger man. Where does he take time from Wiggins?
boes
Roar Pro
Evans v Wiggins will be a great match up however there are a lot of other GC contenders who won't be there just to make up numbers - Nibali, Basso, Gesink, Sanchez and dare I say brothers Schelck (despite their poor form so far this year). These riders all know that they are unlikely to gain time on Evans & Wiggins in the TT. Their chances to win will come by attacking on the climbs - if on form we know Cadel can hang on even if he is isolated and has to work for himself. Can Wiggins? His classy team can only protect him for so long but if the pace gets too much on a HC he has to have the legs himself. Its going to be a cracker!
Gus
Guest
Good article, will be an interesting match up for sure.