Early this year, who would have thought the Blues would fall out of the eight? After starting the season in hot form, they have bounced back to earth and are now in the bottom half of the competition.
But why?
There are many contributing factors. Firstly, they have unfortunately lost a lot of good players to injuries such as Andrew Carrazzo, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland, Bret Thornton and Jeremy Laidler.
It also doesn’t help that big guns such as Chris Judd and Bryce Gibbs are out of form.
But with the list that they have they should be doing better especially when they were considered as a premiership favourite at the start of the year.
At the start of the season Carlton showed that they were a force not to be messed with. After absolute demolitions of Richmond, Brisbane and Collingwood, they started showing signs that the form they were showing was wavering. Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne pushed them right to the last quarter before they finished the job.
They were then themselves demolished by St Kilda, Adelaide and Port.
Their performance against Geelong was heralded as better, but better does not win you games of football.
One big criticism of the Blues this season has been their ability to kick straight when it counted. When looking at the statistics, this criticism appears warranted. Against St Kilda they scored 14.14, with 15.20 against GWS and 11.19 against Geelong.
On all those occasions, if they had kicked straighter, it could have been a different result.
There are also doubts over Brett Ratten’s coaching ability. Much of the criticism has focused on his squad selections, with the likes of Bootsma and Bower getting a game over Ellard and Yarran.
Carlton has now lost four out of the last five games this year, with signs pointing to them further slumping down the lower rungs of the AFL ladder. They must also content with an unfavourable mid-season draw, such as West Coast at home and Hawthorn and the Pies at the ‘G.
It could be another dull month of footy for the Blues.
Wayno
Guest
Poor Carlton, my heart bleeds. Serial cheats, ahhhh Karma, isnt it wonderful.
Macca
Guest
So I missed 1 in 11 games, hardly the same as the number of games the blues have missed 3-4 of their best back 6. As for Waite yes he has missed a lot of footy but the first 5 games this year he was averaging over 10 marks a game and over 2 goals a game, that's pretty handy. And as I have said they recruited Rowe to give them another forward option but he got cancer, they have Mitchell who has missed the last season and a half with shoulder issues and is just coming back now and Casboult who was kn ocking on the door for selection at the start of the year before he didd his knee, so they have taken steps to address the problem, they just haven't had much luck with injuries.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
Can't say I have much sympathy for Carlton seeing as they were responsible for breaching the handicap but you make a good point there. Can't agree with you on the point that any 2 of Brown, Keefe, Tarrant and Reid have played every game this year. Didn't happen against Adelaide at AAMI and the Pies were still able to win. As for Waite, please. You can't expect Jarrad Waite to be your winning goal kicker every week. You guys play without him more than you play with him, you should be used to it. Jarrad Wait is not the answer to your forward woes. Just as well you guys have the bye this week so you can rest up and get Judd back to full strength because you're going to need it in the second half of the season.
Macca
Guest
I forgot to mention Sam Rowe, another key forward, who they recruited as a msture age player but got cancer, Simon White and Marcus Davies who wold be replacements for laidler and duigan. So the count is 4 of the best 6 defneders plus 2 of the most likely replacments, 2 of the best 3 midfielders, and the best marking forward plus the 3 most likley replacements. Is collingwoods really worse?
Macca
Guest
Hamelyn - I agree Collingwood have had a bad run with injuries but the whole point is that they are more developed, ie have built better depth. Plus look at where they havehad the injuries, Brown, Keefe, Tarrant and REid all play the same 2 spots, so while all of them have been injured 2 of them have been fit at the same time so the damage is limited. On the other hand the blues only last year improved their backline through the additionof Laidler & Duigan plus playing Henderson & Yarran in defence, all four of these players missed games at the same time. Carrazzo and Murphy are A grade midfielders and not to many teams can lose 2 of of them for extended periods and not see a drop off. Then you have the key forward slot where the blues are already vulnerable, they lose Waite and have Mitchell & Casboult (the 2 most promising young players) injured for most of the season so far. It isn't so much a case of Carlton relying on the top end stifling the development of the younger players as you allude to but a case that after the salary cap penalties the blues were so far behind everyone else they have only just built a solid top 22-24, they are still building 24-28.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
Carlton's injury list pails in comparison to Collingwood's. Plus Carlton won't win a premiership without a good consistent key forward who doesn't get injured all the time (i.e. not Jarrad Waite), a stronger backline (might take a bit of time but guys like Henderson and Duigan are showing a lot of promise) and a better overall gameplan. I know Blues fans will love Bret Ratten, but I sincerely doubt whether he has a good enough gameplan to win them a premiership. At the moment, the Blues lack a definitive structure, which is what it takes to be a top four team. Look at Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast as an example. All three teams have a strong team structure with pre-defined rolls which are drilled into every player on the list. As a result, when they get injuries, they have guys ready to step up and fill the holes in the structure. Carlton, on the other hand, relies far too much on their top-end player talent. So when that talent gets injured and goes out of the side (a la Carrazzo, Scotland, Murphy, Laidler, Kreuzer and Yarran), they have to rely on unproven guys with limited skill or experience at the top level, hence the drop in performance.
sirnoob_51
Roar Rookie
Hampsons most accurate game was against Richmond in round 1where he was the leading goal kicker that night with 3.1. Hampson is sitting on 14.2 for the season. He has been averaging around 1 goal a game and if he were going to play in a Lynch like role and average 1 goal a game the blues are not gonna win many. What the blues need is a forward line set up similar to St Kilda's where they have 2 short crumbers aka (Millera and Saad also Steven Milne) and 2 talls Kozzi and Riewoldt. The Blues already have amazing crumbers in Betts and Garrlett but their missing the talls. Fevola was a huge loss for them and thats the sort of forward they need to push them from being a top 8 side into being a top 4 side. They did draft Sam Rowe as a Marque forward but unfortunately he has had a cancer scare. Hopefully he does return next year. But the are just missing that one key player that can provide a tall marking target up forward.
Macca
Guest
Warnock is a much better tap ruckman than Kreuzer and is about 2 inches taller, look at the hit outs and hit outs to advantage Warnock has had since getting back into the side,. If anyone is going to play the Lynch (who is only 192cm by the way) type role it will most lilkey be Hampson, he has by far looked the best as a key forward this year. Hampson hasn't been atrocious kicking for goal, just patchy, at one stage he had kicked something like 8.1.
sirnoob_51
Roar Rookie
Truly Kreuzer is their best ruck this season not Warnock. Agreed im still saying that they have 3 ruckmen on the field but dont use all 3 of them in the ruck I suppose I should eat my words about Warnock because they have always really used him in the ruck. What Carlton need to do is have one of them playing a Quentin Lynch like role at West Coast were he isnt a true ruck but they use him when both Cox and Natanui are having a spell and have only 2 dominant ruckmen. Shaun Hampson sort of plays this role already but if they used one of them in more of that type of role they could have a clear marking target up forward. Also I base the fact they should use Warnock up forward more on that Shaun Hampsons goal kicking this season has been atrocious.
Macca
Guest
Brendam you like to talk facts but none of them support you, you say you can't have 6-7 players under 6ft while Geelong won a premiership with just that, you say Carlton haven't drafted any key position players when they have 4 kids plus a mature age player plus trading Henderson. You say Carlton haven't been creative in fixing their deficiencies like Geelong getting Pdosiadly and Taylor when the blues have picked up Duigan and Laidler to fix their backline. And now you say Geelongs 6-7 under 6ft are offset by Ling Bartel & Corey without mentioning Judd 189, Gibbs 188, Carrazzo 187 or even Walker at 190. And which 2 key positions are they missing? Full back and CHB are more than capably filled, Waite coming back will tack one key forward spot so we are talking 1 key forward. If Watson can take a key back spot Henderson could come forward, Mitchell and Casboult are being developed so as I have said numerous times there is a deficiency but as early as next year it could be resolved through development of the current list.
brendan
Guest
Geelong did have the players you mentioned but that was balanced out by Ling and Corey over 190 cm and Bartel at 187 cm.Carlton have one to many talls ,two too many smalls and are missing two key position players.Your entitled to your opinion but you argued for the retention of Ratten last year and perhaps he was fortunate Essendon had the bye the week before the finals or the result might have been different and this year the clubs gone backwards.Carlton talk the talk but dont walk the walk and Ratten's comments re the Eagles worrying about playing after the bye are stupid and only fire up the opposition.You can dissect any argument you like Macca but the cold hard facts are this century Carlton are a shadow of the club they once were.
Macca
Guest
just Checked the Geelong premiership side from last year, 6 under 6ft (Varcoe, Selwood, Stokes, Christensen, Chapman & Wojinski) Plus James Kelly who is 6ft. Seems to me that having 6-7 6ft or less might be perfect rather than a hindrence!!
Macca
Guest
How is it a myth, they haven't won in June for a long time. Whether it is just coincidence and is completley irrelevant to how they will perform this week is another thing.
Macca
Guest
sirnoob - what are you talking about, Warnock is the best ruckman they have, he is alos the worst key forward! And you say he should they shouldn't play three ruckmen but then say Kreuzer and Hampson should play in the ruck and Warnock should play forward, that is still 3 ruckmen!
Macca
Guest
Yeaah Geelong won and look at how many under 6ft players they have? 15 on the list and Selwood, Motlop, Wojinski, Chapman, Stokes & Varcoe would all be in the best 22. That is 6 so I am not sure how your theory of not having 6-7 under 6ft players goes. And on that team how long did it take Hawkins to mature? What were the so called experts saying about the team and coach back in 2006? And you said "Yes your three no 1 draft picks have been good players but it is a waste of a pick if they dont play at least 100 games" Murphy has 134, Gibbs has 123 and Kreuzer has 78 so I can't see how you think they are a waste of a pick?
Redb
Roar Guru
The June thing is a myth, but in any case they use to say the same thing about Collingwood.
sirnoob_51
Roar Rookie
One thing that I have always felt the blues should do to boost their forward line is scrap having 3 ruckman. It certainly doesn't help their cause have Hampson, Kreuzer and Warnock all on the ground at the same time. What the blues should do is scrap having Warnock in the ruck and train him to be a tall forward he has the hight and the strength if they trained him to play in the forward line and keep both Kreuzer and Hampson in the ruck and only use Warnock if either one gets injured or is on the bench for a spell. Also an interesting move last week from Ratten is to move Tuohy to play as a midfielder, i think it was a great call by Ratten and would like to see more of him their.
brendan
Guest
How many are regular players? Believe what you will but your Blueboys are going mowhere fast.Who won the most recent flag a team that plays tall and strong.
Macca
Guest
Collingwood 12 under 6ft Adelaide 12 Sydney 12 Gee how are these teams in the top 4?
Macca
Guest
What do these players have in common, Stringer, Selwood, Motlop, Wojinski, Chapman & Stokes. They all played in Geelongs team on Friday and are all under 183cm. Geelong also have Varcoe, Bynres Simpkin, Bews, Hogan, Eardley, Sheringham, Schroder & Mcarthy under the magical 6ft, Essendon have 9 under 6ft and all of them have played senior football and I am sure if I wemt through other lists I would find similar results so I don't buy your argument that the blues have to many small players. Also who says all three ruckmen can't play, Kreuzer is quite mobile, Hampson is one of the quickest on the list and Warnock is going very well. It worked reasonably on Friday and against Melbourne (where Hampson could of had 5 goals had he kicked straight). At 26 Jamison is hardly past it, in fact he is just soming into his prime and Henderson has beaten every opponent he has had this year including Cloke & Hurley and is only 23, his best is in front of him. So yes the blues need a key forward especially with Waite injured but I don't understand why young players in the 2's aren't options especially given the injuries they have suffered. In this modern game you can't just buy a team you have to develop one and the blues are doing just that.