Why NRL TV rights deal won't match AFL's

By Damien / Roar Guru

The removal of David Gallop by the Independent Commission (IC) was a huge step in the right direction for rugby league. We can argue over the way it was done but in the end the right decision was made.

Now that one of the last public symbols of News Ltd has gone, it’s time for the IC to fully move their attention to getting the best out of the next TV deal.

Here’s where a bit of political know how will be crucial to ensuring that the rugby league community is happy with the deal.

I don’t believe the NRL is going to get anywhere near the AFL’s $1.25 billion broadcast deal. And the reason is not primarily down to the amount of TV viewers either code gets.

Before I get to that we’ll need to analyse the numbers from both codes. These numbers are from the 2011 season:

AFL : 95,355,000 TV viewers – NAB Cup, AFL Premiership, Brownlow Medal, All Australian Awards, EJ Whitten Legends Game.

NRL : 87,978,000 TV Viewers – NRL Premiership, State of Origin, Test Matches, City Country, Charity Shield, All Stars, World Club Challenge. Note, there are no numbers for the Dally M.

Although the total numbers favour the AFL, the numbers favour the NRL if you average them out to a per ‘episode’ number. The AFL getting their TV Viewers from 238 ‘episodes’ for an average of 400,651 viewers and the NRL getting their TV Viewers from 213 ‘episodes’ for an average of 413,042 viewers.

Unfortunately, these ‘per episode’ comparison numbers are not the right ones to use when we’re trying to convince the TV networks to give us a similar deal to the AFL.

Here are some more numbers so our readers can have a quick reference to a breakdown of the events. I’ve bundled the league tests, City v Country etc under miscellaneous and same for the AFL with the Brownlow and so on.

AFL : NAB Cup – 6,357,000. AFL Flag – 73,961,000. AFL Finals – 12,256,000. Misc – 2,781,000.

NRL : NRL – 63,767,000. NRL Finals – 10,423,000. SOO – 10,595,000. Misc – 3,193,000.

Now this next calculation is where the massive difference between the codes occurs. A live game of AFL is on TV for three hours compared to two hours for the NRL, a 50% difference in favour of the AFL. Unless league changes the structure of the game in terms of minutes and halves we can’t do anything about the AFL being on TV for a longer period.

If you multiply the total TV viewers by the length of the time the game appears on TV you’ll get the real numbers that matter to the TV networks. The AFL gets 286,065,000 hours and the NRL gets 175,956,000 hours. Thats a difference of over 100,000,000 hours to the AFL.

Now to give us the ‘per hour’ metric using the AFL’s $250 million (per year for five years), the TV networks pay the AFL around 87 cents per hour for each person that watches an AFL game. Therefore, the AFL ‘works’ for 286,065,000 hours and gets $250 million for it.

If you were to apply this same principle to league then in theory they would receive just over $153 million (176 million hours multiplied by 87 cents) per season. Which for the NRL is a $765 million broadcast deal over five years.

Even if we were to consider a 5% growth in total TV hours for the next 5 years and then up the hourly rate by 5% to 91.35 cents from year one instead of a gradual increase, the NRL will still only get $890 million. This scenario is highly unlikely though because the AFL have already factored those situations into their deals so the NRL will be adding cream to numbers that have already had the cream added to them.

So using these principles I’m predicting the NRL to get between $760 – 860 million for their next 5 year deal, which is no where near the AFL’s. If the NRL mange to get $900 million then that should be considered an enormously successful outcome.

The problem for the IC is that the rugby league community are expecting at least $1 billion dollars. And no one can blame them, because most league journalists have been claiming thats what the NRL should and will get. Who’s going to get the blame when the fans lofty expectations haven’t been met.

With the IC we can’t blame News Ltd anymore.

I’m not sure how the IC is going to deal with this potential backlash. I’d prefer at least $1.2 billion, but given the circumstances I’d consider $800 million a fair enough deal.

The best thing I reckon the IC should do is try to shift rugby league’s obsession with comparing its worth with the AFL. Then they need to somehow lower the expectations of a $1 billion dollar deal. They’ll probably need to get in a PR firm to help them. In the end I’m not sure how they’re going to do it (fulfilling league’s expectations) but thats why they’ve been appointed to the IC in the first place.

Some numbers may change depending on how you slant it but the basis of my theory is solid. An AFL game is on TV longer than an NRL game and the viewership numbers are quite close. When those numbers are expanded to reflect a year or 5 years worth of numbers, the gap widens considerably in favour of the AFL.

If you’re interested in dissecting the numbers further go to: http://www.talkingfooty.com/tv_ratings_2011.php.

The Crowd Says:

2012-06-18T23:24:12+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


To use a political jargon,spoken,written and authorised by Eddie Maguire,where the world begins and ends with the Colliewobblers. Poor kids LOL.

2012-06-18T23:21:49+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Meaning Ditraversa Sydney media gives AFL better coverage than rl in Victoria.Meaning a more accepting press in Sydney by comparison and perhaps a more mature one to boot.. The whole basis of argument is centred around TV contracts. Both codes are on FTA and Pay TV by varying degrees,the ratings figures are supplied on a regular basis,advertisers and the codes themselves look at the ratings and comparisons.The CEOs of the codes at times brag about their dominance in a certain aspect.The tv deals in the past are also a base for argument. It is therefore a natural for supporters of both codes to argue the merits as to the codes worth on TV.comparsions are drawn here there and everywhere. Another litlte fly in the ointmet is the poaching of Folau and Hunt,with one purpose only, to attract rl followers.If you have any idea about poaching,ask ru people who lost players to rl in the past.That created tension and to this day still does with some. BTW if you believe the obsession is limited to rl supporters,spend a little time on this site and the Likes of Big Footy.If you believe it doesn't exist then I tend to believe you are more an AFL supporter than rugby league one.

2012-06-18T23:00:00+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Are you calling me a liar AR.I can read and have the abilty to hear things.The same thing has been going on occasions on this site.with the usual suspects. And many within the Vic community did not want the Swans to relocate ,hardly a scoop.. .Do not deflect from the comments and attitudes prevailing, when the storm came to town.You hear and see what you want to see. RL people may well have wanted the Storm to fail,because they lost their clubs,due to the SL peace deal.That is hardly an excuse for the negativity by some south of the border,levelled ATT.. In the main due to longetivity both the swans and Storm have been accepted as part of the sporting landscape.Probably because both initially had to do it the hard way. I also know what happened when Manly played western Suburbs in a celebration of football game many years ago.When it was time for the rl to be played,all but a couple of hundred walked out. I continually listen to some of the claptrap by Caroline Wilson on the Offsider,who awaits every golden opportunity to sink the boot into the Storm and rugby league,and she äint"the only one. She noted"because of the disputed try in SOO1" Rugby league has had a terrible week,with this controversy".Completely ignoring the record crowd at Etihad and the record Tv ratings.Agenda? You betcha. You ignored the negative comments directed toward the NRL by Brereton(GWS involved),not that long ago.We have all this money,watch out,I would feel concerned,or words to that effect. . What the AFL does with Etihad has zilch to do with ,what happens in NSW :playing favourites if you will. The new stadiums in Sydney are not going to be purchased by the AFL for starters,they contributed a minimal amount,the state govt huge amounts.So cut the BS. The Raiders and indeed rugby league have been involved with wagga and the Riverina for decades.the Raiders have asked for nothing in the past.League clubs fail as in fact do other sporting clubs.Cronulla have had their issues.but they contribute to the community,over decades. The Wagga mayor is to be kind covering his a*se,just as the Blacktown mayor did. Skilled stadium was used for two winter sports,dont blame rl for the soccer teams failure.And it has been used for ru,and will be used in the C/ Games..It has had more usage and will do so in the future than Carrara. Again you are writing BS,The Titans pay an exorbiatant amount of money for hiring Skilled to teh Govt,and that is why their tickets prices are too damn high.I have been there on a couple of occasions,so don't lecture me on Skilled. Again you ignore what monies the Titans hvae been putting into the local community ,sincce their inception. Are you kidding! GWS is extracting ACT taxpayers mone(large amounts)y for playing a few games in canberra.The Raiders are domiciled in Canberra ,have been from day one,have brought a lot of money into the area,with visiting supporters. They call themselves GWS,the players are homed in the inner west,the ground is sited in the inner west,the white elephant Blacktown ground is the west,and they flit down to Canberra for some strange reason. The Bruce Stadium is shared between RL/ru/and even soccer.Maximising usage.. Tthere would be no complaint by many rl and indeed fans of other codes(if you believe it is only rl fans that are cheesed off at times),if state govts had treated code,s that have been operating at a high level for many years,with consideration.One only has to look at Brookvalel Oval last night,where the majority of people were stuck on a hill.Are they not taxpayers of long standing(excuse the pun) to some comfort. I cannot believe people being so out of touch,with Sydney clubs.

2012-06-18T15:41:32+00:00

Ditraversa

Guest


I love League and Aussie Rules. But, Leaguies, what is going on? Why this obsession with the AFL and comparing yourself to it all the time? On all measures the AFL has won: and all this code rivalry stuff is only coming from NSW and Queensland where there is actually competition between the two sports - in the other states (having lived all over Oz) neither League nor Rugby really exist. Another good measure of relative national popularity: the swans regularly (for last decade or so) have gotten the back page of the Tellie - need a microscope to ever find any rugby (league or union) news in the Sun Herald

2012-06-18T11:18:31+00:00

Queensland's Game Is Rugby League

Guest


"Australia is the only country where League is bigger than Rugby…and surprise surprise, we dominate it." Rugby league is the national sport of PNG. Over 6,000,000 live in PNG. Papua New Guineans wouldn't spit on Aussie rules or rugby union. "And please, don’t mention PNG." Because you're jealous of it turning its back on Aussie rules and adopting rugby league, just like QLD and NSW did? PNG is bigger than New Zealand. PNG is bigger than Wales. PNG is bigger than Ireland. PNG is bigger than Scotland. If you're going to say rugby union is an interntional sport because it's popular in those countries, then don't tell league fans that rugby league's status as the national sport in a country that has over 6,000,000 people means nothing.

2012-06-18T11:17:14+00:00

Rossi

Guest


Let's be honest- more kids in Australia dream of playing for Collingwood than the kangaroos. Deal with it.

2012-06-18T06:24:11+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


That's not true re the Storm. People weren't wishing for their downfall - perhaps not enough Melbournians cared about them at first, but there wasn't a ongoing effort to see the club fail. As for the salary cap scandal, it was RL fans in Sydney and Qld that were laying the boot in...NOT AFL people. To suggest otherwise is just nonsense. You want to talk about stadiums and the QLD govt in particular??? Well, what does the NRL do...other than stand there with its hand out? It contributes ZERO capital and crowds are poor. The AFL is about to buy Etihad outright. How much did the NRL contribute to SFS?...or any other stadium in Australia? For the Gold Coast...Metricon Stadium (cost $144M) is IAAF and ICC compliant and will host the opening and closing ceremonies of the 2018 Comm Games. The AFL contributed over $10M, the GC City Council about $20M, and other investors plus the State and Fed govts covered the balance. Skilled Stadium, on the other hand, was paid for entirely by the Qld Govt at a cost of $160M. Not one cent from the NRL or FFA and it still sits empty most weekends. And yet you still maintain that the NRL should have more stadiums built for it? As for Wagga, here's what Wagga Mayor Kerry Pascoe said: “We met with a representative from the NRL about five years ago, when Wagga Leagues Club folded and the main ground, Eric Weissel Oval, and the junior fields closed,” Cr Pascoe said. “But we haven’t seen them since. I’m glad this has come to the surface. It is now up to the NRL to present a package to us to consider.” The AFL contributed $250,000 capital for Wagga’s main sports oval and $8.5M over the last 10 years. Aside from accepting $1M a year from the ACT govt and taking millions more in pokies revenue from its clubs, what have the Raiders…or the NRL…contributed? In terms of ACTUAL money given to communities, sports clubs, facilities, juniors etc, the AFL would be quite happy to put its record up against the NRL's any day.

2012-06-18T06:17:31+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Not having a go at rugby league internationals?Well i must be reading a different script,because what I see with my little peepers is exactly that. Your wording exactly"People may bang on about the Kangaroos being an ïnternational "team ...but virtually no one in the international community cares.".Sorry to report, you are having a go at rl internationals. I haven't seen the description global game being used to describe rugby league.A game which has international teams of varying strengths yes.I have seen the word used on a website ,and guess what if there are countries involved in qualifying for an international such as RLWC13 tournament,it is international.Global may be a little wide off the mark, as there is stuff all presence in the east.. The Commonwealth games officialdom.does not give any code any sort of recognition,if they fail one iota of an interantional status.The numbers of countires embacing the game in the Commonwealth, bears testimony to that.

2012-06-18T05:51:15+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


I'm not having a go at rugby league internationals, re-read my last para. But RL fans often trumpet the rep factor of RL...when in reality, it's huge in 2 states of Australia, and at Test level, has small followings in Eng, NZ and PNG. I'm not bagging the sport but some RL need a reality check when they crow about it being a "global game". As I said, Aust Footy has no internaitonal presence and it's ok with that. If people want to follow an Australian team, they have the Wallabies, the Socceroos, the Australian XI and, of course, the Kangaroos.

2012-06-18T05:33:09+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Nonsense because it is factual AR and the truth can come home and hit you beteween the eyes;.. The Storm when they entered or were parachuted take your pick,were ridiculed and still are judging by the flag brigade that trolls rl forums. One of the first comments made when the Storm came into Melbourne was they would be lucky to get 3,000 peope,Who is going to watch the bum sniffers,the thugby leaguers.No one cares,this is a football town etc etc. Look at the press ,b... all ,no one cares,were and still are typical of the comments. When the Storm was involved in the salary cap debacle,we had people like that clown(mgr) who got caught in a motel ,stating lets drown them whilst they are floundering.Voss of the Lions lets pick their players..Healey on Tv having a dig.You kid yourself AR,living in a bubble at times. As far as money is concerned the reality is different.The monies outlaid by your beloved code's head body is minimal in the scheme of things in the stadium policy .The GOvt(taxpayer ) still ended up paying the lion's share ,and we know the last Qld govt,has driven the state into deep debt. The Blacktown set up,with games and the players at Breakfast Creek,makes a mockery of the initial reasoning behind the Council deal. You have no answer to the likes of the bombast of Sheedy,the ignorance and plain arrogance of Brereton,the reasoning behind poaching Folau and Hunt(in your face)and the delusiuon that $20mpa is going to buy you love, with that sort of approach. Added to the fact local NRL clubs have been screaming for decades(not last week) for better facilities,and the Govts claiming there is no money.GWS and the SCG stuffed that theory. And don't even get many Rl fans started on Wagga,where the Raiders have been involved for decades asking nothing from the Council. If you believe Perth will follow a similar pattern,you know little about rl. The media may have created some of the fear,at least the media(in fact all) is giving them publicity,which is more than I can say about the southern press.But the average Joe in the street doesn't need the media to twist his arm,he sees and hears what is happening by others,word of mouth,or actually involved.Ask people involved with NRl clubs,that have sought Govt garnts for better facilities.

2012-06-18T05:02:02+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


First I find it completely side splitting when people particlularly from the AFL side have a go at rugby league internationals,especially when they have to bastardise(the rules )of their game, to even get another country to play a so called test. To make the assumption that no one cares as Australian Rules has done,reveals not only a little ignorance but a glass jaw. The last test against New Zealnd was viewed by more than 1.5million people who watched friday night's rugby league test between Australia and New Zealand from Auckland. And to that date the biggest football audience of the year so far watched it,with 516,000 people in Sydney,365,000 in Brisbane and a huge 615,000 in regional NSW and Qld alone. Then the NZ viewing figures to be added,plus PI . The fact that there is a RLWC in 2013,supported and backed by the British Govt,local councils and sporting bodies and played in 4 countries,that the code has been recognised as a 3rd tier sport for entry into the Commonwealth gamesmakes a mockery of AR's poor and unsurprsing attempt at a put down. We dont have to mention PNG ,because rl dominates that country,daylight second.And PNG are playing in the RLWC,but keep it a secret AR LOL.Delusionary with a capital D..

2012-06-18T04:56:41+00:00

Boomshanka

Guest


AR But articles about “war”, “frontlines”, “battle for the west”…etc sell newspapers apparently. Even Inglis made the front cover of the Herald Sun in Melbourne when he was made out to be a monster wife basher. News Limited, "not racist, but No 1 with racists!"

2012-06-18T04:55:14+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


In terms of Wookie's original comment about the AFL pre-season comp... I think he may have been referring to the fact it gets ok ratings. For eg...Round 1 of the NAB Cup in 2012 had about 3 Million Foxtel viewers. That's pretty good for a nothing comp.

2012-06-18T04:49:55+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


*When the ARLC contributes millions towards sporting arenas, then you can complain about "unfair" funding. The AFL will never take over W.Syd as the number 1 sport....just as the Storm won't overtake Collingwood in Melbourne. The fact that the media have created so much fear about this, is not just unprecedented, but frankly bizarre.

2012-06-18T04:45:21+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


That's just nonsense CC. First, the NRL couldn't afford to do any of that stuff, so it's a moot point. Second, yes, money was spent on advertising and marketing for a brand new club. Shock horror. Third, the Storm were welcomed into AFL mad Melbourne. Why didn't the locals and media stir up a frenzy and write articles about "war", "frontlines", "battle for teh west"...etc? Fourth, the NRL has never contributed one cent to major sporting stadiums. W

2012-06-18T04:34:45+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


I am sure the code is concerned and nervous about that description sledge.Quivering in their boots.

2012-06-18T04:30:42+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


I doubt it AR,because it will be instigated by fans and people wanting to get involved in Perth.The new team will not be pinching Chris Judd,Ablett Jnr,Reiwoldt in doing so,in order to make their mark in the WA market and try to win over converts.They tried it once before with some lower grader in Perth,a dud. .The ARLC will not be spending $100m over 5 years to push the team in Perth and ram it down locals throats in the media.The onus is on the local people to back the team financially and with crowds. There will be I am sure no loudmouth coach,who goes around saying we are giving kids an opportunity at just about every turn in the road. I also don't believe for one moment.,the codewill take over a venue currently used by the AFL and turned into a rl academy and training venue.Nor do i believe the fed govt will allocate monies to assist them in so doing.. We wont be sending over people like Brereton to warn the local code,they better watch out ,because we are loaded and you should be worried.Talk about bombast. There is no other current NRL team there to add to the mix,as there is in Sydney.. The stadium will be shared by three codes,not one or two at the most. There are no other AFL grounds screaming out for new stands, like there are in Sydney,ignored by state and fed govts. If that were to happen AR there would be a backlash.The fact it wont there will be no backlash. Just a few hometruths.

2012-06-18T03:57:56+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


Wookie didn't "compare rep level rugby league with a preseason comp in the AFL". He just corrected your assertion that "the AFL has nothing". However, while SOO is undeniably enormous in terms of ratings, Test matches are not. People may bang on about the Kangaroos being an "international" team...but virtually no-one in the international community cares. Australia is the only country where League is bigger than Rugby...and surprise surprise, we dominate it. Obviously, Australian football has no international presence - and it's ok with that...that's why it copied some features of the biggest Football league in the world, the NFL, where the Superbowl reigns supreme. It's great that you can play Rugby League for Australia, it really is, but crowing about League's "international" status is just delusional. And please, don't mention PNG.

2012-06-18T03:36:18+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


No seriously, do you work at all?

2012-06-18T03:17:51+00:00

Australian Rules

Guest


Ok, what about this: Most RL fans talk about setting a new team up in Perth. To me that makes good sense. Will it be called an "invasion", will Australian Footy fans rush to forums to declare it a failure, will journalists decry it for being artifical and embarrassing? JVGO, will there be a similar "backlash"? No. The reaction, already, has been "huh"..?

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar