Will the Welsh defy the Wallabies?

Bearfax: very true but that is why they are games, they are played within rules and we all rail against any rule, without them there is chaos. This rule gives a level playing field to Northern Hemisphere teams but there you have it. Most rugby players accept the madness of it and just play this game. Those that don't agree tend to have played or are playing/love League.

Well the game is over and Australia have won 25 to 23. Well done Oz and they probably deserved their win. But I have said it once and I will keep saying it about Rugby Union. While penalty goals are worth 3 points you will have referees having a signficant impact on the game throught discretionary decisions and you will have teams strirving for penalties rather than tries. I am not saying that I dont like Rugby Union...in fact I enjoy the 15s and the tests and even occasionally the Shute shield games. But I get so frustrated with the game relying on penalties to increase your score. Case in point is this latest test match. Yes Australia won 25-23. But only seven of Australia's points came from tries and conversations. Wales, who scored two tries had 14 of their points from tries and conversions. In other words Australia scored 18 points from penalties and Wales 9 points from penalties. This means 27 points were scored by way of penalty goals, six points through conversion goals, and a measly 15 points out of a total of 48 points scored were through tries. There is something wrong in any game where the penalty points siginficantly and often regularly outweigh the fundamental purpose of the codes,in this case Rugby Union and the scoring of tries. I know there are those purists who will maintain that that is what Rugby Union is about. My answer is, that is rubbish. What other game can you think of where the penalty points dominate the score card...the answer none. the reason is that the games are designed for the players (not the refs) to show their skill in overcoming the other side by way of scoring the principal aim of the game. In League its tries, In soccer, Oz Rules, hockey, basketball. baseball, cricket, netball etc etc etc, the game is won by scoring through the skill of the players. All have penalty structures but rarely are outcomes dominated by penalty points. Even in soccer, despite the penalty goals scored, the majority of gaols scored are by way of the skill of the team, not by one player outthinking the goal keeper as to which side of the net he is aiming for. Sorry but this issue infuriates me about Union and watching the dominance of the refs. Surely its time to reduce to value of the penalty goal to 2 and even maybe increase the try to 6. Then teams will focus on getting tries rather than consistently relying on the arbitrary decisions of refs to give them a penalty for some minor infraction. It is the scoring of tries that the Rugby codes were originally designed for. Goals were anciliary as an extra boost in scoring to avoid regular draws..

Whilst a decider would be great, for the sake of oz rugby, we need a win today.

2 touchdowns each. Wales to convert 1 out of 2, Aus to convert none. Wales 3 penalty conversions, Aus 2 penalty conversions. LOL!

I'll put myself out there...Wales 21 Aus 16.

Wallabies by 13, Barnes, McCabe, and Vuna with good games, Ioane unstoppable.

benno it is called an emotional hedge. If the Wallabies win I'll smile since my team won. If the Welsh win I'll smile because I have some money in my pocket and at 2.75 I'll feel I outsmarted the bookies. This isn't something I do often, I need to feel the opposition are a strong chance and think that the bookies have mispriced before I back against my side.

The second test will be a tougher proposition. The Welsh will be more settled and acclimatised. Australia needs to be at its best. Oh I do wish Beale and O'Connor were playing. Also wish that Cooper and Barnes were there together interchanging between fly half and inside centre. What a backline that would be at its best. Finally Oz forwards are holding their own, thanks to Pococks example.

Logically the Wallabies should be able to improve just because they have a solid week preparation without a tuesday test inbetween. They dont have players backing up. They have video to learn from how Wales did break their line etc. The downside is that Deans does NOT LEARN. Just because we won he picked the exact same side. When from video analysis it ws clear some players did not play well. If Wales did not drop a pass cold with the line open would we still have the same team? Porbably not, so we should not now. On a similar line I believe Deans will also stick to exactly the same tactics AND not adjust for the flaws. So Wales will be better able to exploit them. The scrum was under some stress and having better / more powerful locks pushing would help. Simmons is a weak scrumager in terms of adding power. It is clear Neville should of been included. Both Sharpe and Simmons are lineout generals and only 1 is needed , the other should be on the bench. Kepu also lost his technique under pressure and did not do much on the field. Obvious that Palmer should start, and Kepu on bench. Vuna is a defensive liability and Wales have genuine speed out wide, and Vuna does not have great speed especially tunring and chasing. Morahan a safer choice and IMO at least as good in attack. So the heart says Wallabies. The silver lining if we lose would be MAYBE that the non performers get dropped.

'Cos we know what a pinata the Wallabies are, in many ways just like the 'Tahs, heaps of talent, chat, column space, air time ad nauseum and then come game time you have to find out what is in the wrappers today. If you like surprises r3ligiously support them! A punt on (lack of) form is good form, most do it, shows you can still think. I wonder how Dingo copes though? At least he can still laugh (Grandstand last night), must have a hide made of carbon fibre.

If you're tipping against your team, for you to be right they have to lose ! Why do that to yourself?

Curious comment.

I seem to recall the Welsh are always talking up their chances in the southern hemisphere, but they haven't won here since 1969, cant recall when they last beat the Boks in SA, and probably have never beaten the AB's in NZ? Im not sure making 4 changes is going to help their combinations, they will probably be better tonight, but I expect the Australians will be as well. Every team tries to target Genia and Pockok... even the All Blacks have trouble with those 2, so Dragons might be better off focusing on attacking the Aussies, rather than trying to contain them. The rest of the Wallabies back line has some good players in it as well, Ioane and Vuna will be deadly if they get the ball with some space in front of them.

Bet your not cheering all that loudly No wonder the country's confidence is slipping!

Are you Welsh or a Kiwi?

Why after last weeks performance would you have such a belief stillmissit? You agree with LAS, then detail your doubts, but they are your guts talking not your brain I think you are having two bob each way to protect yourself from loss If the Wallabies go into the game with doubts like yours, they will lose ! Try supporting your team when the odds are favorable. It's good for you and maybe getting behind the Wallabies could just be good for them ! Eh?

Don't agree The Wallabies have a lot of improvement in them and why wouldn't they, the combinations being new in certain positions and they are just starting a new season Wales came off a win in the six nations and were well oiled and confident. Very confident. The question I think revolves around their ability to get a roll on. I think their confidence, despite their bluff, will have been dented and if the Wallaby forewards can hit them hard to begin with their self belief may falter This is, of course, the danger for the Wallabies, having run hot then cold almost as part of their temperament. My hope is that the team is maturing and will demonstrate this. I don't think making outrageous predictions has much value. A game is only worth watching if the result is in doubt. There is no doubt Wales can win But any Wallabies supporter worth his salt would back his team tonight ! I note in the past LAS, your track record in bailing out on your team. On the Roar you have an army of critics who will follow you.

Wallas by 20.Wales played as well as they could last week.Aussie pack will stand up again, our lineout will improve,Barnes wont stand as far back in the pocket,Ioane will not lose the ball in the collision or ruck, Vuna will make a tackle and run with the ball,Horne will play for the team not himself,TPN wont knock himself out, higgers will make some tight no6 type tackles and Dingo will make his replacements earlier.

Werewolf, I think the key difference is that the Wallabies largely played close to their potential last week. The Welsh look stronger for mine with the inclusion of Rees and A W Jones, while I don't think the loss of Faletau will be a big blow if later in the game they sub Evans for Tipuric (similar to what we'll do with Palu and Hooper). I expect Halfpenny, Preistland and Phillips to all improve on last week and just generally think the overall Welsh team has shown better form than this throughout the year and should play closer to it. They were a whisker away from snatching the test last week when they fought to 20-19 down with twenty to go and with what I have said above and the defensive frrailty of Vuna more likely to be exploited if the halves can get the backline moving I agree with LAS that the Welsh are a huge chance of winning this.

LAS - agree they will lose tonight but I think it will be our pack that gets worked over. Phillips and Priestland had a tough day last Saturday due to our pack standing up, can they do it 2 games in a row? I know 3 or 4 will, but will all 8 do so? If they don't then Genia's game is the hinge pin, if he starts slowing the ball down and pointing all over the field we are gone. The other point is what has happened to our D? It used to be a cornerstone of our game and now it seems a bit fragile. If the Welsh created 6 opportunities behind a beaten pack what will they do if their pack gets over ours? Close loss (XXXXX everything X'd for a win ) but that is what my guts is telling me, lets hope it is a great game. We need to put a couple of great games together.