The Super Rugby season has been put on hold by the June international fixtures.
This break is great for the second and third placed teams in each conference to get the calculator out and make ridiculous mathematical equations which would see their sides play finals at the end of July.
But with such a log-jam in the middle of the Super Rugby table, the mystery still remains: who will clinch the final wildcard spot in the Super Rugby finals?
With three weeks to go there are four teams on the cusp of the last spot in the finals.
Currently, the Hurricanes hold the final wildcard spot on 45 points with the Sharks, Highlanders and Reds all two points adrift of the Wellington based franchise.
The competition uses a conference format, with the teams broken into an Australian, New Zealand or South African conference depending on their nation.
The teams which finish at the top of each conference automatically qualify for the finals.
The three ‘wildcard’ spots are formed by the teams who finish with the highest aggregate points of the remaining teams.
The Stormers (58), Chiefs (54) and Brumbies (49) will automatically qualify as they will finish on top of their nation’s conferences. But the Crusaders (51), Bulls (45) and Hurricanes (45) have a nervous last three weeks as they try and hold their current wildcard spots.
There are some crucial matches in the final three weeks, which will be instrumental in determining who progresses to the Super Rugby finals:
Week 16
The Crusaders will face the Hurricanes in a battle of New Zealand wildcards; the Crusaders have one foot in the door of the finals series and a loss for the Hurricanes may push them out of the top six.
The Highlanders will play the Chiefs in a game that is pivotal to the Highlanders finals hopes. A strong showing by the Dunedin side will bring back some belief as they will enjoy the underdog tag.
Sharks: Bye.
Week 17
The Crusaders face the Chiefs; a victory for the Crusaders will all but seal a finals spot for the Canterbury side and give them momentum if they face the Chiefs later in the finals.
Arguably South Africa’s biggest rivalry, Sharks versus Bulls. A victory for the Sharks will strengthen their claims as a finals contender and provide them with much needed bragging rights against their rivals.
The Reds against the Highlanders is a crunch game for both sides, the loser could lose touch with the top six.
Hurricanes: Bye.
Week 18
The Hurricanes face the Chiefs; the Hurricanes need to win if they are to make the finals and prove to be a contender once they are there. Highlanders bye.
All three New Zealand contenders will have to face conference leaders the Chiefs.
Although it may put a dent in their finals aspirations, it could also prove to be invaluable come finals time.
The bye at this time is a positive and negative. It’s a positive because the team are guaranteed a much needed four points.
But the team loses the opportunity to gain bonus points will be vital for teams challenging for the top six.
On paper matches simulated with the team who is placed higher on the table winning the game (no bonus points), the final three spots would go to the Crusaders, Bulls and Sharks, nudging the Hurricanes out of the six with both the Reds and Highlanders also missing out.
Rugby matches aren’t won on paper, which will make the final three weeks very interesting.
Injuries have already and will continue to have a bearing on the Super Rugby finals make up.
Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara, Reds captain James Horwill and Highlanders loose-forward Doug Tietjens will be notable omissions from their sides end-of-season charges.
So based on the draw, injuries and each team’s current predicament, one believes the Sharks will clinch the final spot in the top six and advance to the Super Rugby finals.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Fair call Jutsie, but i think the Crusaders are still in a good enough position to qualify. I understand that raises the stakes for the Highlanders when they play them, but i still honestly believe the Crusaders will win and Sharks to get the final wildcard spot.
Jutsie
Guest
With news that carter is injured and possibly out for 3 weeks, this puts a little doubt in all our predictions.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Jutsie, I think it is a good change from the traditional ladder/table format. It allows a team from each conference to be guaranteed a position, which makes it interesting for all three nations. And a six team finals series is a much better concept than a four team finals series. But not everyone will be entirely happy with the format, but that's the world we live in i suppose.
Jutsie
Guest
All this excitement in the last two seasons yet people still complain about the new format. I reckon its been a success so far.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
I guess that's why it's called a wildcard spot- it's really anyone's for the taking Highlanders, Hurricanes (NZ), Sharks (SA), Reds (AUS). A very intriguing three weeks, If you factor injuries and bonus points into those matches it may change the entire complexion of the finals make-up
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Hahahaha Wizard, anyone would be tired crunching numbers like that in the way you did mate. It will come down to the Reds and the Sharks. I do ultimately that the loss of Horwill will hurt the Reds and the Waratahs loom as a bogey team for the Queensland franchise. The way i've read your math i think you too believe the Sharks will get the chocolates and grab 6th spot
Jutsie
Guest
Yeah thats my thinking. The nz sides will cannibalise each other similarly to the sharks, bulls and stormers last year. Crusaders will nail 5th and 6th its out of the sharks and reds for me. Reds are capable of winning the last 3 even without horwill, Sharks have a bye and then have bulls and cheetahs at home. Not willing to call either of those games yet as sth african derbies can go either way.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Reds have the best draw to secure spot six. I think the NZ sides might cut each others throats and finish 7th and 8th because of it. of course if the Highlanders manage to pull off an away win against the Reds that throws everything wide open
formeropenside
Guest
Yeah, hopefully the Force and Tahs can be useful for a change and beat the Brumbies. That actually might give the Reds a shot at 3rd, and a home semi. That assumes that the Reds can win all their remaining games, and hopefully get a bonus point or two. I'd love to see the Tahs get absolutely hammered by the Reds at Suncorp, but I think it will be a lot closer than that. Maybe that will actually get a few more Reds the Wallaby call up.
MaxT
Guest
Surely Deans thinks the Waratahs will.
Wizard
Guest
Just did some quick math....providing Bulls and Sharks can beat lions and cheetahs and get five pts max out of the games that means with sharks bye they get nine pts and bulls ten...therefore with all the combos of the sharks bulls head to head bulls could get max 15 (63)min 10(59) sharks max 14 (59)min 9(54)! Reds max 59, brumbies max 64...the hurricanes and highlanders have a tough task they both can only max 14 (59&58). But they both have to play chiefs, and crusaders/ reds..... I personalllly think sharks over bulls, an they will both be round 59,highlanders hurricanes to only get their bye points plus one or two bonus pts to both end up around 50.... And the waratahs to be brums reducing them to about 58 max,....and then the reds waratahs....well I just don't know..in any case the reds to end up about 58 or 55.... Now I'm tired!
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
That's true Jutsie, there's so much speculation about the final spot. The Reds probably have the best run home, but they are two points behind both the Canes and the Reds which could prove costly at the end of the season. Horwill is a big loss for the Reds. The Sharks look pretty good on the injury front with Lambie returning. The Canes have the toughest draw and the worst run of injuries which will probably see them slip out of the final wildcard spot
Jutsie
Guest
Think the reds can cover for horwill, they did so in 2010. Genia is a good leader and wallace-harrison, humphries and simmons are a good trio in the 2nd row. The reds are capable of winning all their remaining games (rebels, highlanders, waratahs) and need the canes and sharks to drop at least one game each (if they win all their games they would already take the highlanders out of the equation). The sharks v bulls game is the key game for the reds as the canes would probably lose to both the chiefs and crusaders. Its a tough call whether the bulls will beat the sharks u can never tell with the SA derbies, I was sure the stormers would beat the sharks and that the sharks would beat the lions but was proven wrong on both occasions.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Tumble Hill i agree, injuries will be the Hurricanes downfall.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Comrade bear you can never count out the reds, especially since Quade Cooper is only going to get better over the final three weeks. It's really anyones to take; bonus points will be crucial because the contenders have to play each other. Just on the reds; they have a make or break game in the last round against the old foe, the warpaths- that could ultimately seal the fate of your mob
Comrade Bear
Roar Rookie
Doh - I'd all but given up hope until I read this - now I'm thinking we're in with the slimmest of slim chances. No Horwill as you mentioned - but hopefully Quade coming back can spark some much needed bonus point wins ... (hmmm probably not) There is a couple of slippery games in there - and I am looking forward to seeing how the break effects Teams such as the Blues / Waratahs who have underperformed all year - here's hoping for lots of upsets :).
Tumble Hill
Guest
The loss of Perenara for the Canes is huge. He is a step above Chris Eaton who will replace him. Not that Eaton has played badly when he has come on, Perenara is just that much better. Victor Vito is almost deffinatly going to miss the match against the Crusaders, possibly the Chiefs aswell. Both Big losses for the Canes who are going to struggle without 2 of their best players. I think the Sharks will get the last spot.
Johnno
Guest
I think the sharks are in the best position to claim the final spot. a bye so an extra week off so a 4 week break to freshen up and last 2 round vital playing both last matches at home. And the bye too will be perfect for the book sharks players like Bismark and Jannie Duplessis, and JPP peterson, and frans stein who will be back, and lambie who will freshen up after the bruising England series. So for me the sharks are in the box seat. Then the reds if they can beat rebels in Melbourne they get final 2 matches at all improtant home ground advantage.