If you are of a charitable disposition, turn those good intentions northwards this weekend and consider the unhappy predicament of the British and Irish Lions hierarchy.
Those nervous souls will be setting their alarm clocks early on Saturday morning with this gloomy possible scenario in front of them – the three sides that will form the bulk of their squad to Australia next year could be dispatched from the southern hemisphere without a single win to their names. A 9-0 thrashing and the derision that would follow was not part of the plan with 12 months to go.
See the Wallabies team to play Wales
Lions team manager Andy Irvine can at least point to the success of his Scotland (and they will be rightly rewarded when the Lions squad is announced), but he is also likely to be worried about the mental scars inflicted on the Welsh, Irish and English.
The former, in particular, are turning the gallant loss into something of a bad habit. There would be talk of hard lessons learnt, but it would mostly be nonsense. One of those three need to take something tangible from this weekend, or else they will set off on next year’s adventure without a map.
It is easier said than done. Frankly, there will be concern among the Lions strategists at the sheer competency of the Wallabies in the past two Tests, especially after the loss to Scotland.
They already knew from their video analysis that Will Genia could scoot through loose defence around the ruck and Digby Ioane could generate momentum in a phone box (although both were clearly quicker in real life). But it’s not certain they were aware Australia could set up a perfectly executed lineout drive under intense pressure to win the match.
The probably knew that Berrick Barnes was a solid citizen that wouldn’t let the side down, but they probably weren’t suspecting he could ghost through a gap, leave Sam Warburton in his wake and set up his centre for a try. No doubt there were suspicions the Wallabies scrum had improved – but not to the extent of being largely untroubled on its own ball against Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins.
It plays into a recurring theme of the first two Tests. The Welsh have done nothing – aside from a neat short lineout early on Saturday – that has surprised the Wallabies, while the reverse has been true. One of the most telling parts of the Melbourne Test was the Welsh attempt to hit Warburton at the tail of the lineout – one of their key attacking platforms – only to see Nathan Sharpe waiting for it.
I give the Wallabies due credit for this – if you stick the boot in after the Scotland game balance requires the opposite now.
There is a school of thought that they should have unleashed a greater array of attacking threats on Saturday, given their possession and territory statistics. It is a little on the harsh side.
It was a crucial Test match against the team ranked No.4 in the IRB rankings. These are emotional occasions in which both teams must think their way around obstacles. The Wallabies did it better. They started poorly and kept their composure. They were almost undone by Cooper Vuna’s terrible discipline but steadied.
They were confronted with slower ball and came up with an alternative plan. You do not get things all your way in these charged affairs against proud opponents who also bleed for their cause – ask the All Blacks about that after their Christchurch escape.
Now, it is foot on the throat time for the Wallabies. An afternoon kick-off in Sydney under forecast sunny skies against an opponent with some key players badly out of form is an opportunity too good to miss. Later in Hamilton an All Blacks side, which will have spent much of the week with Steve Hansen’s boot moving towards its collective posterior, will rumble again with the Irish.
In Port Elizabeth, the Springboks resume foaming at the mouth against the shellshocked English, who have now lost their fine captain, Chris Robshaw.
For one hemisphere that 9-0 scoreline would be pitiless, demoralising and entirely possible. These are far from dead rubbers this weekend, as far away as you could get.
Thank goodness for the Scottish.
HardcorePrawn
Roar Guru
You'll probably be castigated mercilessly for suggesting Cipriani, but I reckon you could have a point. His experience of playing Super Rugby might prove quite invaluable (as could Gareth Delve's too, I'm surprised he hasn't had a mention in passing yet), and he was definitely showing signs of improvement in his defensive game before he left the Rebels. If he can hone his skills at Sale over the next 12 months, and leave the booze and birds alone, he could be a decent prospect for the tour.
Colin N
Guest
Murray covers both sides? If he does I've very rarely, if ever, seen it. I would have Cole over him, a far more destructive scrummager. Corbisiero, on his recent form, would also come under some serios consideration. Gethin Jenkins is a fine player, but not the most comfortable in the set-piece. There's also the relationship he has with both Hartley and Cole. With some weight in behind with either Davies, Gray or Lawes, that front-row could do some damage.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Oohh... In no particular order: Props: Cian Healy, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones, Euan Murray; Hookers: Rory Best, Matthew Rees, Dylan Hartley; Locks: Richie Gray, Donncha Ryan, Ian Evans, Tom Palmer; Back row: Tom Croft, Stephen Ferris, Ross Rennie, Sam Warburton, Jamie Heaslip, Sean O'Brien; Half: Ben Youngs, Connor Murray, Mike Phillips; 5/8: Jonny Sexton, Toby Flood; Midfield: Jamie Roberts, Brian O'Driscoll, Jon Davies, Manu Tuilagi; Wings: Tommy Bowe, Chris Ashton, George North, Stuart Hogg; FB: Rob Kearney, Ben Foden Notable omissions: Dan Cole, Brad Davies, Paul O'Connell, Chris Robshaw, Toby Faletau, Dave Denton, Danny Care, Leigh Halfpenny...
Dean Vincent
Guest
Yeah, I think the Wallabies have got a few decent options at lock as I said above Think we'll have to agree to disagree regarding your props. Judging by the criticism being dished out in other articles don't think I'm alone in my view. Agree with you about the hookers though and with your comment re Saturday's bench
Dean Vincent
Guest
You make some excellent points there Rugby Fan. There's always a few surprises in selection and always a few players who seem to play their best rugby for the Lions rather than their respective countries. In 1997 players like Jeremy Davidson, tom Smith, John Bentley would not have been in most peoples teams pre-tour but all played key roles in at least 1 test. Similarly Jamie Roberts only really made an impact on the international scene in the Autumn Tests preceding the 2009 Lions tour but went on to be named lions player of the series on that tour. Thought Croft was outstanding on that tour too.
Ben S
Roar Guru
This article really is pretty appalling. There is no connection between Wales and the Lions. Watch some NH rugby please.
Dean Vincent
Guest
My point was a statement of fact rather than a comment on the players ability. Both are pretty impressive nonetheless. Cuthbert has played more times for Wales - 8 than he has for his club side Cardiff - 5. North has just turned 20 so both are works in progress so to speak. Any perceived advantage that Mitchell and Tomane would have is a matter of opinion not fact.
Justin2
Guest
All your power players should be eating up a tight 5 battle.
Geo
Guest
Statistically the only close part to the game was the scoreboard!
Mike
Guest
I don't put too much store on the current matches, because the Lions usually add something more than just the sum of four home teams. There is something special about them and the players lift (mostly, sometimes they don't gel and then it gets pretty ugly). So Wales are 2-Nil down. Heck, they are No 4 in the world playing No 2, so its a respectable result, and in reality both games could have gone either way. For the Wallabies, there are good signs. The scrum is looking good and the forwards' cohesion is better. It should be a cracker of a tour next year.
Jenkins is my tip to be the captain. I also think Lawes will be selected if fit. He is an amazing talent and along with Richie Grey gives size and dynamism something you'd not expect from europe. The other player that does not get a lot of fanfare is Ross Rennie who IMHO is the best openside in the home nations. If he can hide the fact he's Scottish he should be picked ahead of Warburton and co. You've also forgotten Dave Denton who is a must. I suppose we could be here all day though.
Brett McKay
Expert
I didn't actually mean it in a derogatory way, Uncle, but 'yes', to answer your question!
Argyle
Roar Guru
Travelling circus....isn't that a Labor Party Community Conference?
Argyle
Roar Guru
Well said RF however I still think LAWES is a dirt merchant :)
rl
Guest
Big deal. Cuthbert & North were good on the weekend, but they didn't shade us, and that was with us having one winger and one speedhump on the field. If we'd had Mitchell or Tomane there we would have had a clear advantage. Size of the fight in the dog boys...
Rugby
Guest
My Lions team would be: 1. Cole/ Jones 2. Best 3. Jenkins 4. Gray 5. Bradley Davies/ Ian Evans or Wyn-Jones 6. Lydiate 7. Warburton 8. Heaslip/ Denton 9.Phillips 10. Cipriani (England are mugs for dropping him, much better than the typical crappy tens they bring out) 11. North 12. Roberts 13. Tuilagi 14. Cuthbert 15. Halfpenny (Mr Consistent) In reality I am trying to be fair but think they're better players in the Welsh team especially in the pack that could assume the positions, but im trying to give each nation a shout. I don't think these tours are going to leave any scars. Each of the home nations have had a long season and this has been a tour too far. Also, Wales especially know they can beat Australia (should have if it wasn't for a last minute penalty) and this tour will develop them so much making them much better for next years Lions. England, well they are young and have played against a better team than Australia so that will make them better, but I can't see them supplying more than 2/3 XV players (Tuilagi and maybe a second row and prop). Ireland are just Ireland maybe 1 player to the starting XV - number 8 because their pack is to weak and their backs are crap apart from O'Driscoll and Kearney, but O'Driscoll is past it and Kearney is rated but is he as consistent as Halfpenny? Scotland are doing brilliant and I think will supply a couple of forwards, but their backs are not great.
HardcorePrawn
Roar Guru
You and me both Jutsie, it is tricky isn't it!?
jeznez
Guest
KPM, the weather is a major driver of it. If it is wet and loose then good technique at scrum time becomes even more important. To succeed in the wet and mud you have to be sound or you will be found out. In general a weaker scrum will be beaten less badly on a dry pitch than it will on a wet. In Aus we usually play on firm pitches so the impact of good technique over poor is not as stark. If coaches see that scrummaging impact is not that different then they start looking at other attributes. Being a good enough scrummager to compete in the Shute Shield or Super Rugby does not neccessarily mean you are a good enough scrummager to compete at an international level. Less questions are being asked and the overall focus is not on that area - hence the mobile guys not neccessarily the best scrummagers tend to come through. So if you look at a club rugby side and the unfit guy in third grade is your best scrummager but he isn't as fit or dynamic as another guy who is good enough to gain scrum parity in first grade - which player do you think the coach will pick? Subsequently the Super Sides pick from the first grade ranks and don't neccessarily find the best scrummagers. I also think we aren't scouting well enough. Rugby being such a niche sport in this country means that there must be guys in the AFL states in particular who love Aussie Rules but are the right shape to be Union front rowers. Those guys will largely be lost to both games as players and just wind up as supporters of AFL.
Brett McKay
Expert
overlooking your other points KPM, that is an impressive looking proper tour schedule. Everyone gets a look at the Lions, and the travelling circus that follows them gets a look at the country...
justsaying
Guest
Those stats are comparably in the ABs' favour in their match against Ireland, CraigB. Would you say that Ireland were totally outplayed and outthought as well?