The streets of Liège, Belgium, will come alive on Saturday June 30, as the Tour de France kicks off with a frenetic 6.4km individual time trial.
The prologue course is largely flat with some minor undulations – not enough to advantage the climbers in the peloton.
How the riders negotiate the two hairpin turns, which come at roughly the 2.5km and 3.9km marks respectively, is likely to play a deciding role.
It is a time trial of a length and profile that will have the strong men licking their lips, but unlike recent years, it cannot be billed as a one-horse race.
Fabian Cancellara, otherwise known as Spartacus, has taken victory in no fewer than six time-trials at the Tour since 2004, three of them prologues. This history of time-trial dominance at the Tour makes Cancellara a contender regardless of form. But 2012 has been a tumultuous year for the Swiss.
Having fractured his collarbone in a crash at the Ronde van Vlaanderen, Cancellara was absent from Paris-Roubaix, a race he won in 2006 and 2010. He has also been dragged into the Schleck-Schleck-Bruyneel mess at RadioShack-Nissan.
The list of contenders for the Tour’s first yellow jersey is long. Liquigas young gun Peter Sagan will fancy his chances after a stellar season to date, including five stage wins at the Tour of California and four victories (including an individual time-trial) at the Tour de Suisse.
Of the predicted frontrunners in the general classification, Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), Cadel Evans (BMC Racing) and Denis Menchov (Katusha) are three that could go close in Liège.
Others riders to watch are Omega Pharma-Quick-Step’s German duo Tony Martin and Bert Grabsch, Manuel Quinziato (BMC Racing), British stalwart David Millar (Garmin-Barracuda) and 2012 Giro d’Italia winner Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Barracuda).
But do not write off Spartacus as a potential winner of the prologue. His unique ability to reach and hold a high speed is a lethal weapon in races against the clock.
A consummate professional, Cancellara has pushed through the difficult circumstances surrounding his Tour campaign. He finished second to Sagan in the 7.3km time-trial at the Tour de Suisse earlier this month, and landed his seventh Swiss time-trial title last week.
The forecast for Liège on Saturday reads favourably: partly cloudy weather conditions, light to moderate winds, a top temperature of around 21˚C (70˚F), the chance of rainfall 20%.
The exciting news for cycling fans is that there is a 100% chance of Tour de France, and an unpredictable prologue time-trial.
Tim Renowden is on holidays. Kit Harvey is on hand to fill in and give us his thoughts and opinion on cycling
Maria Szczerba
Guest
Hello Phil and team, Well done on the commentary so far and to Spartacus! Fabian Cancellera on winning the prologue! Maria Szczerba 30/6/2012
Djordje
Guest
One very important thing to note about the Tour de Suisse (Lugano) prologue is that it had a 150m climb over 2km (that's about 7.5%) cresting in the middle of the course. Cancellara "suffered" on that hill, because he still felt the consequences of the collar bone injury. But in the second half of the course, from the top of the climb to the finish, he gained something like 12 seconds to the opponents, which was still not enough to beat Sagan. Liege prologue is totally different - it's pretty flat and not very technical. It has a lot of straights where you can develop full speed without the need for a lot of bike handling. This kind of course clearly favors TT specialists, despite the short distance of 6.1km. I think it will be decided between Cancellara, Wiggo and Tony Martin, with Sagan as a dark horse for the win. Between them I give a slight advantage to Cancellara, because if I remember well from 2004, the course in Liege has cobble stone sections. Cobble stones are Cancellara's favorite surface - he won Paris - Roubaix a couple of times.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
The finishes where the roads angle even slightly skywards are the bread and butter of the likes of Gilbert and Valverde. Oscar Freire is another sprinter that could match Sagan and Rojas in such terrain. Rojas is sorely underrated and has quietly gone about accumulating top 10 finishes at the Tour - last year he snared two 3rd place finishes at the TDF. I expect more of the same this year. Tough weather conditions sort the men from the boys. Can't wait to see how things pan out in the first week.
Djordje
Guest
I disagree that first week will be all about the sprinters. Apart from the prologue, where only Sagan and Farrar have a chance to crack top 10, you have stages to Seraing and Boulogne sur Mer that have a finish that is not suited to sprinters at all. In Seraing, I think that only Sagan and Rojas Gil can match Valverde, Gilbert and Evans on the finishing climb. The stage to Boulogne sur Mer is very hilly at the end and it can be marred by bad weather in normandy, plus it finishes with a 7% climb over 700m. It will not end in a mass sprint, whatever happens. On that kind of finish, clear favorites are Valverde, Vanendert, Gilbert, Evans, Sagan. Overall, I think the first week will be characterized by shitty weather and crashes, as that normally happens when the Tour starts north of Paris.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
Also, the official start list will become available closer to the day of the prologue.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
Hi Adam, the TT starting order is always a crucial consideration - many riders prefer starting later and having a goal time to "chase". Last year's yellow jersey winner Cadel Evans has the honour of being the last rider to leave the start house, theoretically giving him the "advantage". But as we have discussed in this comments section, weather could turn ugly and disadvantage later starters. Anything could happen. Aside from Evans starting last, it is largely up in the air. As far as I know, each team is allocated a spot for each rider and can then choose which rider goes from each of those positions. Most contenders for either the overall or the stage victory usually choose to go later in proceedings. Thanks for your question, if I can gather any more information on the matter I will let you know.
sittingbison
Guest
yup I agree, I think Wiggins Evans and any other GC contender will be looking at limiting losses against each other rather than donning the mailott jeune. Then Evans will be trying to force Wiggins into yellow as soon as possible so Sky has to defend.
adamUK
Guest
Great artical Kit. Do we know the order the riders will set off in? Obviously later in the race in the individual TTs it will be the reverse of the overall GC. But in the prologue everyone starts at 0seconds so how do they decide? I think chasing a time to beat must be marginally easier, so those going later (subject to same weather conditions) have a slight advantage.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
Would have been awesome to see the "magnificent beast" (Paul Sherwen) up close!
semiotiq
Roar Rookie
I can't go past Spartacus - saw the great man in action in 2010 at the World Cycling Classic, Buninyong
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
There are national championships and then there is the Tour de France. Loving his chances, though. Going to be an exciting prologue. Love that it's so fast and furious.
Zee Ko
Roar Rookie
Well he did blow away the field during his National Championships. I think that's a statement of intent.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
Spot on Zee, he is a massive chance to take out the prologue TT, as well as the other TTs along the way. If he does well in the time trials he could very readily entrench himself high in the overall standings. That said, as with anything cyclists say before the TDF, we should take it with a grain of salt.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
I completely agree. 20% is still a reasonable chance of rain. Because the TT is so short every second is precious. Good call.
Zee Ko
Roar Rookie
Tony Martin's already said he's going for stage wins, specifically in the Prologue and time trials. GC is just a bonus if it happens, apparently. What with him having said he's at 95% readiness at the moment, with the possibility of getting another 3 or 4% soon, I think he's a huge threat for the prologue.
Ashton
Guest
Great article as always Kit, I think what could be interesting is if rain affects a certain portion of riders, but not those who start earlier, as I believe was the case at the Tour de Suisse, when Sagan benefited from dry roads whereas Cancellara had to deal with the wet. In short time trials the handful of seconds either way that the rain causes is often decisive, would you tend to agree?
Andrew
Guest
awesome article!
Bones506
Roar Guru
The whole tour is shaping as being an absolute screamer. The first week will be all about the sprinters and then there will be fireworks in the Mountains. Agreed on Wiggins - he and cadel will look to yellow late in the piece.
Kit Harvey
Roar Guru
Thanks Bones506, I feel we are becoming quite close via comments and articles. Haha. Definitely included Tony Martin in this article for a reason. He a time-trialling beast! Anyone mentioned I consider a genuine chance. Martin is riding so well for a guy that suffered a horrible crash earlier this season. Wiggins should finish with a high placing in the prologue, but not sure if he will be really wanting to take the yellow leader's jersey so early. Can't wait to see Sagan race. He's a genuine contender for green!
Bones506
Roar Guru
Good read. Tony Martin is the current World Time Trial Champion so he should be included as a stand out to take the Prologue along with Spartacus and Sagan. I get the feeling Wiggins will look to also make a statement. Sagan is my tip for Green and I expect a big tour from him.