Poor draft choices and list management decisions have put the AFL’s Melbourne Football Club back four to five years.
Melbourne lacks two major things on its playing list: experienced players to develop its youngsters, and pace and skill in its midfield.
The Demons sit 16th on the ladder, and travel to the Gabba to take on the Brisbane Lions without gun recruit Mitch Clark, whose season has ended after a Lisfranc tear in his right foot against GWS on Sunday.
Melbourne has not made a final series since 2006, and in the seasons since has finished 14th, 16th, 16th, 12th and 13th. Since 2006, Melbourne has received two number one draft picks; eight first round picks and 11 top 20 picks. This has given the Demons access to the best 20 under-18 players in the country for five years, yet it is clear the Demons won’t finish in the top eight in 2012.
To allow for the development of these draft picks, Melbourne began a youth policy under coach Dean Bailey at the end of the 2008 season, freeing up positions to expose players who could potentially lead the Demons to their first premiership since 1964.
Club legend David Nietz retired at the end of 2008 after 303 games. The club then delisted Adem Yze in 2008 and Russell Robertson in 2009. They forced former captain James McDonald to retire in 2010, who after a year in the VAFA for Old Xaverians, was picked up by GWS as a playing assistant coach for season 2012.
The club also delisted Brad Miller who was picked up by Richmond in the 2011 rookie draft, and failed to re-sign Cameron Bruce, who was picked up by Hawthorn in the 2011 pre season draft.
This cost the demons 1283 games of experience, an average of 213.8 games per player lost. The demons have been able to develop young forwards such as Jeremy Howe, Liam Jurrah and new recruit Mitch Clark, but Miller, at 28 years of age, has proven very useful for the Tigers in his two seasons at the club to date, and could have been very useful to the Demons if retained to help the development of these players.
The colossal loss of experience has also meant a dramatic loss of leadership at the club, leading to the appointment of Jack Trengove at 20 to be the youngest captain in VFL/AFL history, alongside co-captain Jack Grimes at 22 years of age. The pair has played less than 100 games between them, and lead one of the most inexperienced lists in the competition, with only nine players having played more than 100 games.
Former coach Dean Bailey and recruiting manager Barry Prendergast have a lot to answer for. In pursuit of a youthful, talented list, the club cleared out some of its most respected senior players and gutted the culture of the club. Players weren’t forced to earn their spots, instead given games based on the need to educate them. Critically, these younger players had no experienced role models to teach them how to prepare and play at the elite level.
The recruitment decisions made between 2007 and 2011 have been nothing short of diabolical, due both to factors outside of the club’s control, and some very poor decision-making.
The club recruited mobile utility Cale Morton with pick four of the 2007 AFL draft, overlooking the explosive Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn) and Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide), who both possess extreme pace, something the Demons seriously lack in their midfield. Morton is yet to show any real reason for being such a high draft pick, while both Rioli and Dangerfield are integral parts of their respective clubs.
Pick 21 was used for Addam Maric, who was delisted by the club at the end of 2011 and picked up by Richmond. Scott Selwood was taken at pick 22 by West Coast, and is enjoying a breakout season for the Eagles, while Maric has struggled for opportunity at the Demons and Tigers to date.
The club then selected another mobile player, this time athletic key forward Jack Watts at pick number one in the 2008 draft. Watts is yet to display the dominance that was expected of him as a junior.
Although he remains young as a key position player, and the Melbourne midfield in recent years has been ordinary, the facts remain that the other key position players in the top 10 of that same draft have shown greater development. Consider Nic Natanui (pick two, West Coast), Michael Hurley (pick five, Essendon), Tyrone Vickery (pick eight, Richmond) and Phil Davis (pick 10, Adelaide then GWS).
The Demons then had two more picks inside the top 20 of that draft, 17 and 19, which they used on midfielders Sam Blease and James Strauss. Strauss’ career has been riddled with injury, while Blease, renowned for having great pace, is yet to make an impact. Better starts have been made by Luke Shuey (pick 18, West Coast), David Zaharakis (pick 23, Essendon), premiership player Dayne Beams (pick 29, Collingwood) and Daniel Hannebery (pick 30, Sydney).
Then came the 2009 draft. Melbourne were given priority picks one and two as a reward for two consecutive wooden spoons. They took Tom Scully with their first pick and current captain Trengove with their second. Two highly touted midfielders; Scully with elite speed and endurance, while Trengove was a slightly bigger-bodied midfielder who was a known goalkicker. It seemed the Demons finally had the players to develop a finals side.
They took young inside midfielder Jordan Gysberts with pick 11, a pick they gained by trading Brock McClean to Carlton. Pick 18 was used for Luke Tapscott, a strong, tough defender who grew up with Trengove at Prince Alfred College in Adelaide.
Fremantle used pick 20 for Nathan Fyfe, who has become one of the great young players of the AFL, and North Melbourne bagged under-rated midfielder Ryan Bastinac with pick 21. Both can be said to have been of greater value to their clubs to this point than Tapscott or Gysberts have been to the Demons.
Melbourne then missed the chance to take Sydney key forward Sam Reid, who was eventually taken at pick 39. The Demons instead went with ruckman Max Gawn with pick 34, whose initial career has been riddled with injury and who is currently on the long-term injury list after a knee reconstruction.
In 2010 the Demons took key forward Lucas Cook at pick number 12. We have seen nothing of him to date, and heard even less about him. Pick 33 yielded Jeremy Howe, who has been nothing but impressive since making his debut in 2011, and whose unbelievable leap has drawn everyone’s memory back to Robertson at his best.
The sacking of Dean Bailey led to wholesale changes around the club, and Mark Neeld’s new team were able to successfully hijack Fremantle’s bid for Mitch Clark and lure him to the Demons from the Brisbane Lions. This is something that would have never been possible under Prendergast and Bailey. History shows us that.
Money aside, Clark has proved to be one of the best recruits in the AFL so far in 2012, and without a doubt one of the Demons’ best players. He is exactly what Melbourne needed, a powerful key forward, and has done all that he possibly could have in his short time in the red and blue.
The Demons have been severely hampered by decisions made by people who didn’t properly grasp what the club needed at the time. Under Neeld at long last there appears to be a clear vision and understanding of the direction at the club. One can only hope this leads Demons fans out of the abyss of misery and to September glory in the not-too-distant future.
Max Power
Guest
Nic Nat "will not get better than he is now" .That,my friend,is one odd comment.I can only assume you where affected by drugs or alcohol when you wrote. Surely even w coast haters can see the guys potential upside. Most ruckmen don't hit their peak until their late 20's,everyone knows that.
Max Power
Guest
Melbourne could have had Nic Nat,Jack Darling and Luke Shuey*shudder*.Know what they'd have then? The makings of a half decent FOOTBALL side! I don't think they know what they're doin'! Or tryin' to do!:-)
Anthony
Guest
Gysberts a gun got the chop what a waste of a draft pick. Dean b didnt mind wasting a draft pick that why the club is on it it knees at the moment.
Victor
Guest
Whar a disaster 5 years of early picks & yet we seem to be another 5 yrs away! What were they thinking, we continue to make poor drafting choices . Every team has misses when drafting but we can't seem to find A graders. They need to get competitive at least & find same pace or no one will want to watch them getting flogged by 8-10 goals each week!
Ralph
Guest
I can't agree with the wraps on Nic Nat. Look at his career averages. Watts has him covered on everything but tackles and hitouts. The fact is the guy is eye-catching but lacks any real skills or game sense. He's getting by with his freakish athleticism, but already the other rucks are working him out and countering. He lacks the tools to get past their tactics. As for the criticism of our recent draftees in Strauss, Blease, Gysberts and Gawn, you need to realise that we have been gutted in the last few years with random injuries to these kids. Other sides have their first and second round picks from those drafts running around looking like gold, while ours are all either still on the injury list or just beginning to get games after long stretches on it. Bear in mind that Blease lost a full year to a broken leg, Strauss most of a year, Gysberts has had a multitude of injuries culminating in the broken jaw earlier this season and Gawn showed considerable promise before going down with an ACL. Negative comparisons to their fellow draftees who have had largely injury-free runs and amassed 20+ games in this time are not only unfair but entirely premature. I can however agree that I would trade Morton for Dangerfield in an instant. This of course assumes that he would have developed into a similar player had he been drafted by Melbourne, which is in no way a certainty.
Nathan
Guest
I agree with most of what you have said but this paragraph: "Although he remains young as a key position player, and the Melbourne midfield in recent years has been ordinary, the facts remain that the other key position players in the top 10 of that same draft have shown greater development. Consider Nic Natanui (pick two, West Coast), Michael Hurley (pick five, Essendon), Tyrone Vickery (pick eight, Richmond) and Phil Davis (pick 10, Adelaide then GWS)" Fair call on Nic Nat but he will not get any better than he is now. Hurley has had a handful of good games, Tyrone Vickery? Please, give me a break and Phil Davis is about on par with Jack. Tyrone?.. Still in disbelief that you wrote he has shown greater development.
J.B
Guest
Impossible not to agree with, however drafting in hindsight is always easy. Even around Cale Morton's number 4 pick we have perpetually frustrating players such as Chris Masten (#3), Jarrad Grant (#5) and David Myers (#6). But take the 2009 draft, where the two players you mention, Nat Fyfe and Ryan Bastinac were taken with both those clubs second picks. The first round picks Marobito (#4) and Ben Cunnington (#5) have hardly lit the afl world on fire, partly due to injury. I think it helps illustrate the point that both players progressed even beyond the expectations of even the recruiters that picked them. Unfortunately as with many aspects of life, luck plays a pretty large part. A fully fit Marobito is a frightening prospect but he has had the early part of his career left in tatters by injury. In the case of Melbourne’s recruiting, there has been too much pressure placed on young players due the lack of experience, as you pointed out. But as well as it must be understood that there has been bad luck and bad timing. It is easy to write off James Strauss and Sam Blease but both have suffered broken legs at important early points in their careers. Strauss’s occurred just as he was starting to find a place in the senior team. Contrast this with the example of Dayne Beams, who has suffered little in the way of major injury and has found himself a place in a team surrounded by players of immense ability such as Pendlebury and Swan.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Yeah ok, send Cook out there, we can't get any worse than we are now, might as well pump some games into him. I'm glad you think Morton and Dunn are gone. But there is still no way I send Gysberts back to Carlton to have Mclean back. No way, hands off!
jamesbett
Roar Rookie
Justin i agree with much of what you have said, but i would like to point out that most of what you have said is based on looking down the track in a couple of years time. the point i'm making is that if you compare our choices to the players that have gone at lower picks, we have made some major blunders, and that coupled with clearing out the experienced players within the club has hurt Melbourne dramatically. Given the lack of young players we have and the fact that our captains are 22 and 20 respectively, i can't see how losing Brock McLean was a masterstroke. He would be captain of the club now if James McDonald still wasn't and it would have taken a huge weight off Jack Trengrove's shoulders who in my belief looks shackled by the captaincy and his development is being hindered as a result. As for Cook, even if he is too skinny, without Mitch Clark or Jurrah there is a massive opportunity to play him now, because him being in the side will certainly improve him, and it cant really hinder the Demons any more than is already the case. As you said with Viney he is three or four years away, yet another player who Melbourne fans look at as they did Watts four years ago, as a messiah who would lift the Demons from the abyss. Both Dunn and Bate will be delisted at the end of this season it seems, and both players have been severely impacted by the loss of Yze, Robertson, Nietz and Miller from a forward line which has seen defenders that are far too good for them playing on them.
Oracle
Guest
All thanks to the poor judgement of the recently moved on to Carlton, Barry Prendergast. Fail Morton at pick #4, and the brilliantly slow and undersized turnover king in top 20 pick Addam Maric wasted a year at the draft table. Phil Scully at $100k per year might have been a better choice as the Dees recruiter, he could hardly have done a worse job.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
I would be interested to know James if you are a Melbourne supporter yourself? If I may be so bold as to make some comments? You make some good points. Perhaps the best point you made has been the delisting of some of our most experienced players in an attempt to pump more games into the younger brigade. This policy has seemed to backfire, particularly as the senior players they left on the list have completly gone missing on the field in the last two seasons - namely Brad Green and Aaron Davey, but also Colin Sylvia and Brent Moloney who can be excellent on a good day, and have no impact on a bad one. None of these guys have demonstrated on field leadership when the chips are down. And that has been often. Hence Neeld had his hand forced when selecting the leaders earlier this year. With regards to your comments about the recruiters, it seems a bit unfair to blame them for player's injuries. Injuries to players such as Jordan Gysberts, Max Gawn and James Strauss are hardly their fault. Furthermore: 1. The decision to trade Mclean for pick number 11 Gysberts was an absolutue master stroke. McClean will never be more than an average midfielder which has been demonstrated since he moved to Carlton and hardly played a game. Gysberts on the other hand is going to be an absolute gun. Just wait til he gets his body right and gets a few more games into him. 2. People still bag Jack Watts, but this year has me more convinced he will be elite. A bit more muscle and confidence, and he will dominate with his disposal skills. 3. I am excited about Sam Blease and can't wait to get some more experience into him. He will be an excellent midfielder 4. Luke Tapscott is as hard as nails and I wouldn't send him back. 5. Lucas Cook is still too skinny and will get a game when he puts some muscle on. You can't expect these tall players to just immediately get a game and start dominating at AFL level. 6. Strauss and Gawn been injured so can't comment (not their fault - give them a chance) I agree with you that: 1. Morton is an absolute dud, and whoever picked him should be shot. 2 Maric was a fail - supposed to be elite by foot, but didn't help him get a game Two players you failed to mention who will never be any good are Matthew Bate and Lynden Dunn, both high draft picks themselves. Other eternally frustrating players include Jamie Bennell, Clint Bartram, Neville Jetta and Joel Mcdonald. I have mentioned Colin Sylvia who should be one of the games elite midfielders but for some reason is not. You briefly mentioned Trengove and Grimes, but didn't mention the fact that they have the tools to also be amongst the elite in 3-4 years. Not to mention Frawley, McDonald and Garland have the makings of an excellent backline. Add Jack Viney in 3-4 years also. Thanks for an interesting article with some valid points.