So, has Bradley Wiggins won this thing then? It looks very much like it.
His rivals threw a lot at him during the first week, but he’s drawn inexorably away from them, both in terms of time and in stature.
The yellow jersey looks very secure on his lanky frame, but there is a long way to go.
After the Besancon time trial Wiggins was asked if he’d already won the Tour and he replied, “I hope not because we’ve 13 more hotels booked and we won’t get our money back.”
It was a great answer, classic Wiggo, but one he followed with, “The fat lady hasn’t even entered the room yet.”
That was more serious, there is a long way to go and he knows it. But that answer as much as his performance so far makes me confident. Wiggins isn’t taking anything for granted and will hunker down for a fight.
It will come. There’s plenty of terrain for a real battle. For example, we haven’t even seen a big mountain yet.
Wednesday’s stage offers the first chance to attack.
The Col du Grand Colombier is said by many to be the toughest road climb in France. It’s 16 kilometres long and is basically two steep sections joined by a flat one.
The thing is, the gradient of the two steep bits isn’t very constant, there are two sections of 12 percent climbing, and where it’s constant the gradient is constantly steep; like two kilometres of 10 percent five kilometres in, then one kilometre at 11 k and one at the top.
The climbers will try to put the bite on Wiggins going up, and the good descenders will do it on the way down.
And that will be the pattern for the rest of the Tour. Evans, Nibali and the rest must keep up the pressure all the way.
I still don’t think they can beat Wiggins, but he might crack, and there’s a subtle difference.
Wiggins is nervous in a bunch, and nervous on the descents. It’s a known fact, his team had a terrible time keeping him at the front during last year’s Tour of Spain. It’s part of his Achilles heel.
The rest is his temperament, something old Tour racers (I’m thinking Lance Armstrong, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx to a certain extent and Jacques Anquetil definitely) would have worked on.
You don’t know from day to day which Bradley Wiggins will get up, and that could be worked on because you can rattle the wrong Bradley, the one who is in the wrong state of mind. Well, you could.
Today’s men of the Tour don’t seem to do that. Nibali tried, saying he wasn’t impressed by Wiggins, then saying that Froome impressed him more. It read a bit like desperation, though.
Not that I think it would work. I don’t want to put a dampener on Australian, Italian, Russian or even Belgian hopes, but apart from one tiny, tiny moment on the uphill finish at Boulogne, Wiggins hasn’t shown any sign of vulnerability all year.
But there is still the unknown, ten stages of it. The 11th, the final run in to Paris never changes things nowadays.
By far the best hand to play would be BMC sending Tejay Van Garderen on the attack.
Sky would have to chase, tiring them, and if BMC went early enough and the chase used up enough Sky riders, Wiggins could be isolated. That would be time for Evans to strike. If it comes far enough out he could win the Tour.
The Alpine stage to La Toussuire would be good to try it, especially as it kicks off with two hard climbs, and the descent of the Col du Mollard just before the final climb is very tricky. All things that Wiggins is not supposed to be not as good at.
Evans’ other big chance is to keep prodding and pushing while staying as close as possible to Wiggins, wait for the inevitable fatigue to set into him and into Team Sky then hit him early on stage 17.
That’s a gnarly trek through the Pyrenees with a mountain-top finish. The roads are narrow, heavy and the Pyrenees have a capricious climate. Ex-mountain biker is written all over that one, and it says ex-track racer beware.
It’s only my opinion, and maybe a bit of rose-tinted wishful thinking, I am English, but it does look like Wiggins has this thing won. And Chris Froome is holding his coat should he stumble.
What do you think?
Mat Coch
Roar Guru
There is not enough to differentiate Wiggins and Evans aside from the time trialing. I believe Evans dropped too much time on Monday to recoup in the mountains barring Wiggins hitting the wall. Sky has shown itself to be stronger on balance than BMC. The mountains are still ahead and there's time to be proven wrong, but my money (if I were a betting man) would be placed on Wiggins.
rohan
Guest
I think there's a too defined hierarchy for a damaging rivalry, this year at least. Sky appear to be a very disciplined team.
Chris Sidwells
Guest
Admitedly it's a long shot Tommy, but in a strongish break with some climbers after mountains points, who knows?
tommy
Guest
Chris, can you honestly see Van Garderen putting pressure on Sky? He cracked pretty early on the climb the other day. Even if he did attack, he is a long way of GC to do any real damage. Sky might send someone out to mark but the rest would just help to pull Wiggins up? Good point by JC. He needs to make up 3:30 to 4 minutes in the mountains because its likely Wiggins will do more damage in the final time trial.
Bones506
Roar Guru
A very well known saying is in the midst of your comments. You don't win the TDF in the first week....but you can loose it. Has Cadel Lost it - no. Wiggins might fall over tonight and that is the Tour for him. A lot can happen and even though there have been a huge number of crashes - the real racing for the GC contenders really gets underway tonight.
sheek
Guest
Mat Coch, Incredibly pompous observation. I'm not a cycling expert, but I know enough to understand this is where the team concept comes into play. Okay, man on man, Evans may not be able to out-climb or out-time-trial Wiggins. But in TdF he doesn't have to. Providing his team give him protection, & pull him along by doing the donkey work, then he'll be in a position to threaten Wiggins. This is my understanding of how Tour de France really works..... P.S., perhaps the only guy where we would say, "yep, it's all over" after one week, is Lance Armstrong. Brad Wiggins is no Armstrong. Not yet anyway.....
sheek
Guest
One thing I've learnt in life, is never, never to assume anything is in the bag before you've closed the gate, or the fat lady has sung, etc. Apologies for all the cliches, but I'm sure you get my drift. Wiggins is in a good place, way out in front in first place with a good lead. But crikey, we've only completed one-third of the tour. A lot can, & might, & will happen, over the next two weeks. It just depends on whom the Gods will wreak their nuisance value.......... We Aussies have a saying about our famous horse race - the Melbourne Cup - which is run on the first Tuesday in November. "You don't win the Melbourne Cup in July", or September, or some other month preceding. In other words, top form too early counts for nought if you fail to sustain that top form. I would also believe you don't win the Tour de France in the first week. It's what you do in the last few days that really counts. But of course, you have to put yourself in the frame to be in it the last few days. And Wiggins has certainly done that thus far.
Bondy
Guest
I think Cadels team are doing the best job they've ever done, I remember when he rode for Davitamon their was nothing their for him.
Jamie
Guest
Doesn't everyone just love it when The Roar posts the same story twice with 2 different headlines. Just being picky......
Mat Coch
Roar Guru
It's a good point. A bit of Lemond/Hinault at Sky perhaps? If one of those two doesn't win it I'd be very surprised. Cadel on the podium, but not in yellow. The other big question, who will be in green! And white! And who will have the chicken pox?! Gargh I love July!
Mat Coch
Roar Guru
Evan's can't out-climb or out-time-trial Wiggins. Saving mishap the yellow jersey is heading across the channel.
Bones506
Roar Guru
2 weeks and 2000km to go. A lot can happen. I think Froome actually looks the strongest of teh GC riders. Wiggins is not able to alter him Tempo on the climbs like Froome - who attacked hard the other night. Tonight could be a defining stage. Cadel cannot afford to sit back. He exposed Wiggins and Sky at the Dauphine when he hit the gas on the descent. Whilst Wiggins and Sky will be aware of it - actually being able to respond and descend at the same speed is an all together different story.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
It definitely is Wiggin's tour to lose. I seem to recall a lot of comments on this website before the tour adament that Wiggins could not win a 3 week race. So unless he fades big time in the last week like so many predicted, it seems he has it in the bag. You would think Cadel would need to have 2 minutes on him before the final time trial. So that is nearly 4 minutes he needs to take out of him in the mountains.
Bondy
Guest
I have to say that both Phil and Paul are calling this in a balanced way,where in which I think we all know what the likely outcome is . Not such a good tour for litlle Tommy Voeckler.
Bondy
Guest
Cyclings a great sport I dont want Brad to fall but I will be listening to the race radio just in case he does.In all seriousnes it's refreshing to get both Cadel and Brad to great guys level headed balanced human beings and void of the eccentrics of say Super mario. Thoughts go out to the litlle pirate Pantani what a rider he was.
Darryl Kotyk
Roar Pro
I think you're quite accurate on your thoughts and opinion. I would love for Cadel to repeat, but just not sure he can make up that much time through the mountain stages. But this is the Tour, and anything can happen.
rohan
Guest
He's certainly in the perfect position, a good team to keep him close to Evans & Nibali going uphill and a TT still to come. I hope Cadel can beat him but if he can't then Wiggins is who I'd like to win, he seems a genuine guy.