So another transfer window has arrived and it looks as though another Arsenal star will be departing the North London club, frustrated by the club’s inability to win silverware.
Last week Robin van Persie, the Premier League’s top goal scorer last season, issued a statement in which he revealed that he would not be extending his contract with the Gunners, which expires 12 months from now.
Wenger must change his tune for Arsenal to succeed
Barring a Wayne Rooney like U-turn, van Persie will join Thierry Henry, William Gallas and Cesc Fabregas as former captains to have left the Emirates in the past five years.
Arsenal fans have every right to feel frustrated. They haven’t won a league title since the 2003/04 season and they haven’t won a trophy since their 2005 FA Cup triumph.
Not only have they had to endure seven trophy-less seasons, but this has been compounded by repeatedly having to see star players leave the club, generally because they feel that their search for silverware will be best served by moving to other clubs.
But before Arsenal fans reach for the anti-depressants, following yet another key player exiting the Emirates, van Persie’s departure may not be all bad news for the Gunners.
Van Persie is no spring chicken. He’ll be turning 29 in August. So it’s not as if Arsenal, or any other club for that matter, should be looking to build their team around him for the next five seasons.
Given his age, it’s hard to see Van Persie replicating the form of last season over the next three to four years. In other words, Arsenal would have to find another player to be their chief goal-scorer in the next few years even if van Persie decides to stay and signs a contract extension.
Add to this the fact that with the exception of last season van Persie has proven to be rather injury prone during his time at Arsenal, and the prospect of selling him for £25 million looks rather appealing.
In the seven seasons prior to last, van Persie played in just 58.6 percent of Arsenal’s Premier League matches. Of even more interest is the fact that in those first seven seasons he averaged the paltry sum of roughly nine goals a season.
In contrast, Henry in the six seasons before he left had amassed 140 EPL goals for Arsenal, with an average of just over 23 goals a season. While Fabregas was only 24 years of age and just entering the peak of his career when he left North London for Barcelona.
Statistically, Van Persie’s imminent departure is not anywhere near as significant as that of Henry’s. While Fabregas, unlike Van Persie, would have been a central figure at Arsenal for the next six or seven years at least, if he had chosen to stay at Arsenal.
These statistics on their own don’t mean that van Persie isn’t a great player, but they do provide a proper context in which to evaluate his entire career at Arsenal, and not merely the magnificent form he enjoyed last season.
Arsenal would therefore be getting a good return on their investment should they sell him. He arrived at the club in 2004 for a mere £2.75 million. So if he departs for a fee of around the £25-30 million mark that’s being reported, then it would be hard to argue that his sale would be a poor bit of business.
Another thing that people should consider is that losing a star player doesn’t necessarily mean that a team is destined to struggle the following season. In fact, there is a lot of empirical evidence indicating the exact opposite.
When Henry left Arsenal this time five years ago, Arsenal had finished a disappointing fourth. The following season they finished third and were title contenders for most of that season.
This time 12 months ago, when Nasri and Fabregas departed, Arsenal had finished the 2010/11 season in fourth place on 68 points. This season just gone, they finished in third on 70 points.
When Wayne Rooney left Everton in August 2004, Everton had almost been relegated the previous season having finished 17th. The following season, with Rooney having departed to Manchester United, Everton finished an incredible fourth and had qualified for the UEFA Champions League.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s departure from Manchester United, following the 2006 World Cup, had some football ‘experts’ predicting that United would finish fifth.
They went on to win the league title that season (and three in a row) with an until then underachieving Cristiano Ronaldo, filling the void left by Van Nistelrooy and going on to not only become United’s best player but arguably the best player in the world.
So what does this all mean for Arsenal?
Losing a star player is not the end of the world. It can allow the team to re-invent itself and re-create the strategies and tactics that it employs. Consequently, any change in style can result in other players within the squad stepping up and filling the void, in the process becoming better players and thus improving the team overall.
This is particularly relevant when you consider that van Persie is soon to turn 29, has only once scored more than 20 Premier League goals in a season (last season) and has been injury prone throughout much of his career.
Van Persie’s departure will not necessarily result in Arsenal being confined to mid-table mediocrity; on the contrary, it could prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Rob V.
Guest
I don't know what you mean by RVP not being 'the kind of player' who can sustain his success. He doesn't have to play as good as he did last season 'for extensive periods'. Another season like that, or two, might be enough. But he can't do it on his own, obviously. I do agree with SamClench in that rebuilding every season is plain disruptive. It will take Podolski and Giroud time to adapt as well. And they're not exactly worldclass signings. Perhaps it would be better for Arsenal to publicly state that their aim every season is CL. I think that would be the honest thing to do. It would avoid fans getting disappointed with the club.
k77sujith
Guest
Mitchell, I admire your direction of thought with this article and kudos for that. And you've supported your facts by stating relevant examples of some of the clubs. RVP might have been in fine fettle last season but he's not the kind of player who can sustain his success for extensive periods even if he stays injury-free. Yes, it's a blow to Arsenal but it's an opportunity for the current players and new signings, who are younger, to make their presence felt. Having said that, you never know, RVP might flip his decision in a season's time and stay on. Truly attest to this article. Thanks.
SamClench
Roar Pro
I agree that the Gunners, rather counter-intuitively, did noticeably better the year after Thierry left. The departure of star players can lead the rest of the team to step up and take more responsibility. But Arsenal seem to be undergoing a rebuilding period every season. One rebuild every five years can be beneficial, but having to rework things every one or two years is just plain disruptive. There's no continuity when you keep removing the core of the team. They have at least purchased Podolski, so hopefully they will have someone capable leading the line in any event.
Rob V.
Guest
Just read the Piers Morgan interview with The Sun. I know he's not very much appreciated by Arsenal fans. But I have to say I agree with everything he has to say there about Arsenal, Wenger and the way the club is being led. Unlike some people having their say over here, I also think he truly appreciates what Dennis did for Arsenal. He knows what quality is, surely. In fact, when you come to think of it, it is just ridiculous that Arsenal wouldn't allow DB to have his (ice) statue. He deserved that more than anyone else.
Rob V.
Guest
If it wasn't for Wenger, the board would have got much more stick. Wenger has done so well for a long time and I just feel, looking at Arsenal fans' reactions in general, that he's the main reason why there's still no revolt from the fans against the Arsenal board. They still trust Wenger to get things done. But Wenger has to deal with the board, unfortunately. The way the Manchester teams are doing things at the moment, I don't see Arsenal will be title contenders in the short term. Perhaps the future looks a bit brighter, with the new rules going into effect. But still, you have to keep your best players to be able to attract new and young good players and to keep growing as a team.
Bondy
Guest
I think Arsenal havent done a to badder job they've plummeted themselves with debt with their new stadium seven years ago and have remaind more than competitive in Europe until last season and have gone close to winning premierships with the likes of Hleb, Adeybayor,Flamini and Fabregas the unfortunate thing is revenue streams cant be matched compared to Chelsea ,Utd, and Cty it wasnt like that ten years ago the only threats were Utd and Liverpool unfortunately the players think of their carrer more so than loyalty I wish one of them would show a bit one day though.
Disco
Roar Guru
It's not about punishing players, it's about demonstrating that a contract has meaning. Obviously, something's not right at Arsenal: dreadful, profit-focused owner, and a manager and executives who don't share the fans' nor players; ambition.
Disco
Roar Guru
Sorry, but I think you severely overestimate Bergkamp's importance to Arsenal as his career drew to a close. He was backed and excelled in his later years around 2003-2004, but by 2006 he was just about done and I've never heard of him being disappointed with his treatment by Wenger.
Rob V.
Guest
I think it is time for Arsenal to finally rethink their policy. Punishing players would be denying the problem. Something is not right with Arsenal. Otherwise top players wouldn't want to go. I'm amazed how many fans are still loyal to the way Arsenal have been doing things for the last seven years. Trophyless. Surely you should want to have more than a CL spot? Arsenal should compete for the title, I think. Perhaps I'm just being too ambitious. :)
Disco
Roar Guru
Arsenal should strip RVP of the captaincy and make him see out his contract. It's time for the club to show some balls and not be taken for a ride by it's best players; otherwise it the drawn-out, destabilising exodus will continue with Vermaelen, Song, Wilshere etc.
Rob V.
Guest
I know what 'armageddon' is. I was just asking myself (and you) if it was something anyone suggested that would happen to Arsenal if Van Persie were to leave. I didn't. I don't think there will be armageddon for Arsenal. But I just think it isn't the most logical thing to do for a club to not hold on to its key-player. Wenger just didn't do what he promised: 'We want to keep Van Persie at all costs.' It's allright with me, but he propably shouldn't have said so. He knew about his and Arsenal policy. Money is more important than trophies, for them. But then, Wenger should be honest about that. Not pretend he's doing everything he can to hold on to Van Persie. I knew PSG had shown interest. I just thought it was odd you didn't mention the likes of Juventus or Milan and I probably thought there was a reason for you not to do so. Manchester City is the club he is most unlikely to join, I think. I don't think the same about Henry as you do, as good as he was obviously. I do think Dennis Bergkamp was definitely the most talented player Arsenal ever had. No doubt about that, to me. Perhaps his isn't really the kind of play the english appreciate. That would probably explain why he didn't get himself a statue. And why he was being toyed with by Wenger in the last years of his career. But to us Dennis was something special, something else.
Mitchell Collier
Roar Rookie
I don't doubt for one second that RVP has been injured more than he has liked and I don't think that he would have liked it either. He joined Arsenal in his early 20's and has spent MOST of his career at Arsenal and for a significant period of the first 7 years at the club he was out injured. 'What is armageddon?' I'm going to assume that this was a legitimate question as your posts indicate that you're probably Dutch and therefore don't speak English as a first language. When I say that RVP leaving Arsenal isn't 'armageddon' what I basically mean is that it's not the end of the universe for Arsenal. Which leads me to the next point. The point of this article was NEVER to run down RVP. I note in my article that he was the leading goalscorer in the EPL and at no stage do I suggest that I think that he's not a great player. He was clearly the form striker of the Premier League last season, if not Europe. The point of this article is to show that Arsenal without RVP won't see them slide into mid-table mediocrity or even fail to finish in the top 4. Based purely on statistics RVP's departure doesn't come close to equaling that of Henry's. That doesn't make RVP a bad player (I consider Henry arguably the greatest striker of his generation and I'm not an Arsenal fan) but if Arsenal could survive losing Henry, then they can survive losing RVP. As for the PSG reference, RVP has been linked with PSG (http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/arsenal-striker-robin-van-persie-targeted-by-psg-7898902.html) along with a host of other big name players across Europe. Lavezzi from Napoli has joined PSG and just this morning it was revealed that Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva were joining PSG. When fully fit RVP is absolutely a great player. But, when you factor in his age, the fact that he only has one year left on his contract, his history with injury, the transfer fee being linked with him and the empirical evidence which indicates that when a team loses its star player they don't go backwards but actually in many cases improve, then his sale is not a disaster for Arsenal.
Rob V.
Guest
@Disco and Mitchell These were things Dennis hardly could have expected and predicted. After everything he did for the club. In my country, everyone felt it was so disrespectful to such a great player. Age has nothing to do with it. Even in the CL final he could have made a difference. And you just don't bench a player like that in such a match, in what could have been a highlight in his career. He didn't even play for one minute. It says it all about Wenger, the way he treated Dennis after he decided to stay. He just forgot about him. And I can tell you, Dennis wasn't really happy with things like that. I've read things in interviews over here. It just goes to say RVP doesn't have to feel sorry for Wenger in any way. RVP was talented himself and Wenger allowed this talent to come out. Like any sensible manager should've done. He didn't 'make' Robin. @ Mitchell I've no intend to read anything more than I've aleady read. Sorry. I know RVP, in his injury time, participated in 230 games, scored 95 goals. He has been injured much more than he would've liked, but it's unfait to throw something like that at a player. As if he really liked it and didn't do everything he should to go out onto the field. He has been 'unlucky' for having these injuries at Arsenal. He wasn't injury prone before Arsenal. So Arsenal have been unlucky as well. What is armageddon? All I'm saying is it just doesn't really makes sense to let a player like that leave. I don't think that needs too much explanation. I feel Arsenal needs him more than the other way around. But we'll see. And I think the way you're talking about other interested clubs, only mentioning a club like PSG, says it all about your general intention with the piece. You're just trying to write RVP down, make him of as little importance as possible. I don't really believe that is a sensible thing to do. But we'll see how things develop in the future.
Disco
Roar Guru
If Bergkamp felt disrespected he wouldn't have stayed.
Disco
Roar Guru
I'm fully aware of Van Persie's injury record but Arsenal won't replace him even close to adequately. The Board and Wenger have no ambition other than to make the Champions League each year, make money and be able to keep ticket prices high.
mememe
Guest
i agree with this article. rvp has had one remarkable injury free season. he is 29 years old. he should be sold for as much as they can get for him. arsenal need a defensive midfielder as a priority.
Mitchell Collier
Roar Rookie
True Manchester City probably aren't the only club interested. But they do seem to be the only club that is continually linked with him. Having said that you're right, none of us really know what's going on behind the scenes and it may well be that a club like PSG are seriously interested. RVP has never been injury prone? He's spent most of his career at Arsenal and the fact is he has spent a fair amount of time out injured. Here's an article I found on an Arsenal fans website after I read your post which documents his injuries http://www.arsenalnews.co.uk/5-reasons-why-arsenal-should-sell-robin-van-persie/link/646523/ the article also outlines other arguments I made as to why van Persie's departure wouldn't be armageddon for Arsenal. But if you think he hasn't been injury prone and that he's just been 'unlucky', then how else do you account for him having missed over 40% of Arsenal's EPL fixtures in his first 7 years at the club? Do you think he wasn't good enough to make the first team (or come on as a sub)? With regards to Bergkamp to be fair to Wenger when the CL final was played Bergkamp was 37 and Jens Lehman was sent off early in the match. Arsenal lead that match 1-0 well into the second half before Barca overran them, it wouldn't have been sensbile tactics to bring on a 37 year old striker when they were down to 10 men.
Rob V.
Guest
It is very unlikely that Manchester City would be the only club with serious interest in Robin. Nobody really knows. Neither do you. RVP is at the top of his game. He was the best player of the premier league. It would almost be ridiculous to think that no one but Manchester City would like to have him. Especially nowadays, with the short term strategies in football, his age wouldn't be too much of a problem. RVP wasn't injury prone before he went to Arsenal. He never was. I just think he has been terribly unlucky. And why should RVP have to replicate his form of last season over at least the next three or four seasons? One season might be enough to win Arsenal the title. Provided that, this time around, Arsenal make sure that the quality of the players around RVP is good enough to be title contenders. It's all about choices and spending money in an efficient way. If Arsenal aren't prepared to really go for it, he'd better leave. I fail to see how Van Persie leaving could be a blessing in disguise. An ambitious club should never want to loose a player like him. However, I do feel Wenger has a problem with age. If you just look at Dennis Bergkamp and the considerable amount of time he spent on the bench. It was just ridiculous. Disrespectful, also. I remember that he wasn't even allowed to play for a single minute in the CL final. That was astonishing to me. And then the statue thing...
Saint EC
Guest
The $2.75m Arsenal paid for RVP is now irrelevant in terms of whether selling him would be good business. It was a good piece of business back then, but I think they'd be better off now if they kept him rather than taking the money. I think he'll go for $15-20m. Anything more than that is too much for an injury-prone 29 year old striker who may only have a few years left in him at the top level. The impact of losing another club captain & their talisman of last year is hard to gauge at the moment. Podolski & Giroud will need to start to fire quickly. With their team & squad Arsenal should be looking for the top 4 again - on paper they're no weaker than Man U. All will be forgotten if their new signings start well & they win a few early matches.
Mitchell Collier
Roar Rookie
Purple Shag, At no stage do I suggest that RVP wasn't a star player last season or that they weren't heavily reliant on him (for goals anyway). The point is that if you look at the entirety of his Arsenal career, then last year was something of an aberration. Last season he played in 100% of Arsenal's EPL matches and scored 30 goals. In the 7 seasons prior to that he averaged not even 60% of matches and averaged 9 goals a season. If by some chance he does decide to stay and signs a contract extension, do you really think that he's going to be their main talisman over the next 5 years given that he's almost 29? Or what if ends up being as injury prone as he was prior to last season? Would you buy a Ferrari if it was broken down 40% of the time? You're quite right when you say that Arsenal will have a side capable of top 4 and you're also quite right when you say that they can't win the title. But do you really think that they could win the title with RVP anyway? I'm NOT an Arsenal fan and I'd be lying if I said that I've been drowning in my tears watching Arsenal finish season after season without a tropy. But if a decent bid comes in for RVP and they sell him (which is highly likely) then I simply don't think that it's the end of the world for Arsenal. Also, the fact that Manchester City seem to be the only club with serious interest in him is telling. There's not the market for him that he thought there was.