The games of the XXX Olympiad begin in London in under a week’s time. Even though there’s been endless promotion of the upcoming Olympics, I personally feel as though Australia hasn’t quite caught the Olympic bug yet.
Once the Games begin however, it will be a case of leaving the same channel on for the next two weeks.
The Olympics, along with the FIFA World Cup, are two of my favourite sporting events. Many argue that the World Cup is bigger than the Olympics simply due to the fact more than 200 countries compete in it over a two year period before the final phase commences, which is the World Cup tournament in itself.
In London, There will be 205 countries represented with well over 10,500 athletes taking part in 300 events.
I look forward to watching our athletes making Australia proud on the world stage. I’m also looking forward to other athletes around the world like Usain Bolt and Michael Phelps do their stuff. But since we are Australians, let’s concentrate on how Australia will go in London 2012.
I wanted to have a look from an outsider’s perspective on how Australia will go in the Olympics. The media in Australia is biased and parochial – a lot of focus is on Sally Pearson and James Magnuessen. I came across USA Today’s website and found that Australia may have a tough time in London.
Here is their predicted medal count, from country with the most medals to the least.
G S B T
China 34 35 25 94
United States 41 20 27 88
Russia 21 27 33 81
Great Britain 17 27 19 63
Germany 20 20 20 60
Australia 10 12 18 40
France 11 13 13 37
Japan 9 15 11 35
Italy 10 10 13 33
Korea 10 3 14 27
Some of these predicted Aussie golds include James Magnussen or James Roberts in the swimming, Sally Pearson in the hurdles, Anna Meares in the Women’s Keiren cycling event and the men’s field hockey team the Kookaburras.
You could add Steve Hooker in the Pole Vault, but sadly he looks like he is continuing to suffer the ‘yips’. Beijing diving gold medallist Matthew Mitcham is off the pace and will have a fight on his hands against strong competition in China’s Qui Bo and Great Britain’s Thomas Daly in the Men’s 10m platform. Defending K1 1000 Champion Ken Wallace will also find it difficult in the Canoe/Flatwater Kayak event.
As you can see by the table, Great Britain will again beat Australia in another sporting contest as far as the medal tally is concerned. It certainly helps Great Britain have success after getting funding from a combination of British lotto and government support to the tune of roughly 500 million pounds over four years.
The Brits or English certainly have had the wood of Australia in recent times when it comes to other sports like Cricket, Tour de France and even Tennis with Andy Murray doing well, while their rugby side always seems to beat the Wallabies when it counts, especially around World Cup time.
Heading into the London Olympics here are Australia’s previous three games results
G S B T
Sydney 2000 Olympics 16 25 17 58 ranked fourth
Athens 2004 Olympics 17 16 16 49 ranked fourth
Beijing 2008 Olympics 14 15 17 46 ranked sixth
Judging by Australia’s most recent Olympic result in Beijing, many experts, along with the USA Today medal table, are predicting the continual slide in London with just 10 Gold medals and 40 overall. If this was to occur, it may raise doubts as to whether the Commonwealth need to contribute more into Olympics sports funding in the future, or Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) need to find other areas of revenue.
Other sports like AFL and NRL are perhaps looking towards launching their own channels online as a way to get new subscribers and advertisers once the NBN is in full swing. Perhaps it’s something the AOC need to consider because, at the end of the day, the AOC need to find new revenue streams rather than rely heavily on Federal government funding.
Australia in London will continue to punch above its weight with a population of just over 22 million. But if, down the track, Australia wants to punch like a heavyweight, then it needs more funding. Otherwise the slide will continue and Australia could find themselves outside the top ten.
Then again, what are the Olympics supposed to be about anyway?
Samantha
Guest
Australia will face continual decline in the sporting world until we don't treat it as a social past time. The writing is on the wall that we need to treat our athletes as professionals and fund them accordingly. Our apathetic approach and lack of professional pathway development means that it is left to families to provide funding and development where they can. Well wake up Australia - not everyone is able to provide the extensive level of support required to produce an elite level athlete so they fall away from their chosen discipline. We will also face a continual decline in sporting success with our lack lustre sporting focus right from the beginning. Whilst we continue to push the participation only band wagon success will always be a distant dream. This focus is driven by misguided adults who feel the need to mollycoddle their children. You find me an individual who set foot in a race that did not want to win or play a game of football without a scoreline. Wake up Australia, it is time for a reality check. In life there is always completion in one form or another and there is always winners and losers and learning how to handle both situations is critical to our development as individuals. So let's take the gloves off and move forward with a far more professional and realistic approach.
Matty
Guest
Im not sure where you got your figures from but according to the Daily Telegraph's predicted medal count, which is based on the most recent results in each Olympic sport, which in this case was in July. Australia is ranked 9th based on gold medal count so that is a concern. The Americans are the only ones that uses the "no. of medals" ranking system so its pointless using the that system. The top 20 are: Gold/ Silver/Bronze/ TOTAL 1. United States 39 21 28 88 2. China 34 34 24 92 3. Russia 21 30 32 83 4. Great Britain 19 24 21 64 5. Germany 17 22 20 59 6. Italy 12 9 12 33 7. France 10 15 14 39 8. Japan 10 15 9 34 9. Australia 10 12 17 39 10.Korea 10 4 9 23 11. Kenya 9 5 2 16 12. Brazil 7 5 5 17 13. Canada 7 4 6 17 14. Azerbaijan 6 6 7 19 15. Netherlands 6 5 6 17 16. Kazakhstan 6 2 4 12 17. Ukraine 5 6 7 18 18. New Zealand 5 5 6 16 19. Turkey 5 3 2 10 20. Jamaica 4 6 4 14 http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/london-olympics/medal-table
BigAl
Guest
Pure genius ! - why hasn't this been thought of before ? Australia must spend a lot of the money allocated to the AOC to establishing a top notch pharmaceutical industry so the country can win lots and lots of medals (preferably gold) and at the same time establishing a career path for some intelligent and creative people. Now thats a gold medal win/win situation if ever I saw one
Geoff Lemon
Expert
"If anyone can create a drug that cannot be detected with modern technology, it’s [the three largest economic powers on earth]." Well... yes.
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
I might be a biased Aussie, but I find it hard to believe that some of the Americans, Russians, Germans and Chinese aren't using performance enchancing drugs. These countries have massive pharmaceutical markets developing all sorts of drugs. If anyone can create a drug that cannot be detected with modern technology, it's these guys.
Tom Callaghan
Guest
On the basis of what evidence do you expect such a big improvement Tony? INFOSTRADA are also predicting a decline in Australia's performance on the medal table.
Tom Callaghan
Guest
Thanks for your reply Sheek
Republican
Guest
...we won't get a goldin the pool to be sure, whil the poms will. We traditioany rely on swimming to ensure our status at the Olympics but we have slipped while others have gained ground on us. We can boast being 5th in the world on the obesity ladder however, behind only the USA. Mexico, NZ and wait for it - the UK.
Swampy
Guest
The greatest stories in the Olympics are usually the surprise winners and not those of the favourites. Think Dean Lukin in LA, Kieran Perkins at Atlanta, Sally Pearson and Matthew Mitcham in Beijing as examples. Or even Stephen Bradbury. I will watch and wait and hope and enjoy those moments when or if they occur. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
jamesb
Guest
Now the Roar Mods in there infinite wisdom didn't include in my article the predicted chances some Australian athletes will have in London. So I may as well do that in this post: The predicted gold medals that Australia will be looking at are : Cycling-Track Womens Keiren : Anna Meares Mens Team Pursuit Womens Team Sprint Field Hockey Kookaburras (mens) Sailing Mens 470 Class :M. Belcher/Page Mens 49er Class : Outteridge/Jensen Mens Laser : Tom Slingsby Swimming Mens 100m Freesytle : James Magnussen or James Roberts Mens 4 x 100m Relay Athletics Womens 110m Hurdles : Sally Pearson other Australian chances Swimming Womens 200m Medley and 400m Medley : Stephanie Rice Womens 100m Breastroke : Leisel Jones (maybe, just maybe) and Leiston Pickett Womens 200m backstroke Belinda Hocking Womens 200m Freestyle : Kylie Palmer Womens 4 x 100m Medley Relay Womens 4 x 200m Relay Womens 4 x 100m Relay Mens 50m Freestyle :James Magnuessen Mens 4 x 100m Medley Relay Cycling-Track Mens Omnuim : Glenn O'Shea Mens Sprint : Shane Perkins Womens Sprint : Anna Meares Womens Team Pursuit Athletics Mens Long Jump : Mitchell Watt Womens Discus : Dani Samuels (2009 world champion) Shooting Womens 10M air pistol Lalita Yauhleuskaya BMX Sam Willoughby Rowing Mens Quadruple Sculls Mens Four Mens Lightweight Four Womens Double Sculls Basketball Womens: The Opals Artistic Gymnastics Womens: Lauren Mitchell
jamesb
Guest
I reckon Australia will win 14 gold medals, a prediction that might bite me, but thats part of the fun
jamesb
Guest
Hey Tony Whether our US counterparts doubt us or not, I just wanted to go outside of Australia, and see what other countries think of Australia's chances. I chose America just to see what there opinion or prediction will be at the Olympics of other countries, which also includes Australia as well. I didn't want to be sucked in by the Australian media and the hype that goes with it.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Australia will hold there own at this year's Olympics- i sense a big improvement from the performances in Beijing; but isn.t it normal for Australians to be doubted by their US counterparts?
sheek
Guest
Hi Tom, I did read Wayne smith's article, & I thought it was very clever. Although intended with some humour, it was also on the money to a great extent. Sporting success tends to go in cycles, & for Australia, the 1990s & 2000-10 have been a spectacular two decades for us. Unfortunately, we're due for a dip. I must confess medal predictions are a very tricky business. But I will offer this: The top 3 will be China, USA & Russia. China might win most gold medals, but USA most medals overall. Great Britain will finish a very spectacular 4th. Australia will win around 39-43 medals, with the gold component anywhere from 10 to 15. This will still translate as a reasonably good games for us. That's the best I can do..........
Tom Callaghan
Guest
Sheek, Have you read Wayne Smith in the Australian? He wrote an article in the Australian entitled 'Cruel Britannia' in which he outlined GBs sporting triumphs in relkation to Australia since 2003. He also qouted more up to date surveys than the one in USA today which suggests that GB will win at least 23 golds and come third in the table in 2012. What do you reckon?
Tom Callaghan
Guest
Very judicious comment MICKH
Brendon
Guest
"Australia will most likely have its weakest Olympics since 1996, but it will still be strong. However, I expect the total medal count will fall below 40 after these games. It seems we’re a country more obsessed with team sports" Australia in the past few years has become a lot more internal - dare I say it we're becoming like Americans obsessed with sports the rest of the world doesnt care about?
Brendon
Guest
Australia was slow to adopt professionalism. The 1976 debacle of not getting 1 gold prompted Australia becoming more professional. With Spitz's 7 golds in Munich and the rest of the world moving towards professionalism in all sports in the mid 1970's Australia was left behind and only entered the professional era kicking and screaming in the 1980's. Australia was never going to enjoy the success of 2000 and 2004 where the effects of Sydney still helped the athletes in Athens, Its now 2012 and the momentum and motivation that spurred a lot of athletes on in 2000 is long gone.
sheek
Guest
James, Which country's media isn't biased? In any case, reaching 40 medals would be an awesome achievement. Younger Aussie fans might fail to realise that its only been at the past 4 Olympics that we've passsed 40 medals total. And in London, we're likely to just pass the 9.9.23-41 haul at Atlanta in 1996. Which would still be our 4th best effort after Sydney (58), Athens (49) & Beijing (46). Prior to Atlanta in 1996, our best haul was Melbourne in 1956 with 35 medals, followed by Barcelona in 1992 with 27, Los Angeles in 1984 with 24 (the boycott II games) & 22 at Rome in 1960. So our recent success is largely out of kilter with our historical performance at the games. Australia will most likely have its weakest Olympics since 1996, but it will still be strong. However, I expect the total medal count will fall below 40 after these games. It seems we're a country more obsessed with team sports. In any case, for me, the Olympics has lost a lot of its shine. It's become a mega-conglomeration that is greedily sucking everything in its path. And more & more Olympic champions are having a question mark after their name in terms of being drugs clean. Still, the Olympic Games remains a great spectacle & is always a better altenative to war..........
mickh
Guest
Australia was one of the first countries to embrace professionalism with heavily funded, well organised sporting organisations. Other nations like England have now devoted more time and money to their major sports and the results are paying off. It's a shame really that money means results but that's the modern world. Like all aspects of our society. More money = more power. Good luck to London and the UK and lets hope they run a great Olympics. They'll nail it I reckon. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.