After such anticipation of a showdown between Bradley Wiggins and Cadel Evans, and despite the promise shown in the first 10 days, the 2012 Tour de France has been one-sided to the point of monotony.
For the better part of two weeks, we’ve known the result: Wiggins will become the first Briton to win the Tour when he rides down the Champs-Elysees tonight.
Personally, nothing will top Cadel’s win last year, but I also loved watching Alberto Contador clinically tear apart the field on a climb, Lance Armstrong’s panache in the mountains, even Andy Schleck’s myth-worthy win atop the Galibier last year.
They won with guts and determination. Wiggins won by sitting behind a stream train of a team and then pouring all his solo efforts into the time trials.
As for our hero of 2011, his dreams of a repeat were laid to rest on stage 11 when he was dropped unceremoniously on the final climb to La Toussuire.
Trying to pinpoint exactly what went wrong for Cadel is a bit difficult as I thought he came into the race with reasonable form, a strong team, a favourable course and without having to deal with Contador or Schleck.
Certainly, his BMC team hasn’t performed to last year’s lofty standards. Apart from Tejay van Garderen, none of George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt or Manuel Quinziato have had great races. Brent Bookwalter was missing, and high-priced ring-in Philippe Gilbert is a shadow of the man who won a stage and consistently raced well throughout the 2011 Tour de France.
It doesn’t stack up against Sky, who have been unstoppable.
I’ve also formulated a theory that unless you are a superfreak like Contador or Armstrong, it has to be your year to win the Tour. You need to have immaculate preparation, get lucky with crashes, injury and illness, and get a course that suits you. For Cadel, last year’s course was perfect. It was tough and gruelling but the hills were perfectly suited to him, as was the final time trial in Grenoble.
Apart from finishing second at the Dauphine, his preparation was near perfect as well, with wins at the Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour de Romandie. He also managed to avoid illness and injury last year, as well as being lucky not to crash during the Tour, unlike Contador.
2012 has been a different story. Dogged by sinus problems early on, Cadel has had to pause and restart his season two or three times. His preparation has stuttered. He hasn’t had the same form against the clock, and didn’t get enough racing days earlier in the season to build a foundation for the Tour.
Most importantly though, he came up against Bradley Wiggins in the form of his life, with one of the most potent teams ever assembled. Trying to distance the Brit up hills against a team with the firepower of Froome, Porte, Rogers, Knees and Boasson Hagen was nigh on impossible.
As such, Cuddles has been relegated down the order. It was a valiant effort and Evans rode with verve and panache in a defence that was reminiscent of his sensational defence of his World Championship in 2010. But, like 2010, he’s pulled up short.
BMC doesn’t leave the Tour empty handed. Van Garderen has easily sewn up the Young Rider classification. Apart from youngster Thibaut Pinot, TVG is more than an hour in front of everyone else, including highly rated Estonian, Rein Taaramae.
He will finish fifth, a remarkable performance at the age of just 23. A young guy who can time trial well, has been improving every race with his climbing, and with a strong support cast from his team management, Tejay has the makings of a Grand Tour tyrant. I will go on record as saying that he will win a Tour de France before 2020.
For another young guy, Chris Froome, this race could have been very different. The 27-year-old Kenyan-born Brit has been severely restricted by team management, despite obviously looking more comfortable in the hills than Wiggins and staying in touch with his teammate against the clock. How this race could have been so much more interesting if Froome were free to chase victory himself.
As such, the 2012 Tour has left me cold. I doubt Great Britain will be in agreement but it’s been a dull spectacle. Sure, there have been some highlights: the dominance of Peter Sagan, the spectacular stage victories of Pinot, Pierre Rolland, Thomas Voeckler and Alejandro Valverde.
But the most important battle, the one for yellow, has been more of a subtext, a secondary plot. Let us hope that the return of Contador and Schleck livens up the 2013 Tour, and the 100th edition (which is rumoured to be an epic) will give the riders a sterner challenge.
Wiggo
Roar Rookie
I think quieter less exciting tours are something we're going to have to get used too, the riders have become a lot cleaner and consequently amazing feats of inhuman effort are becoming infrequent. Gone are the days when the likes of Virenque go charging solo up the mountains day after day or Landis's epic ride on stage 17 of the 2006 Tour, we all know how they ended, along with countless others and doubtless they werent all caught.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
I'm not saying what he did was wrong from a tactical point of view. I'm saying it was a bit boring to watch because he didn't attack, partly as you said because he didn't need to.
Colin N
Guest
P.S Froome sat behind Wiggins' wheel until the attacks came.
liquorbox_
Roar Rookie
Why would Wiggins put himself at risk? He had a job to do. What if someone who was a contender had a super day, or was loaded on some type of performance enhancer? He had to be ready to attack if someone proved to be better than Froome. Wiggins appeared to "put himself out there" in the TT
Colin N
Guest
"Cadel certainly went for it more last year than Wiggins did this year (remember Cadel single handedly halving Andy’s advantage on the Galibier" Wasn't that because he had to? Schleck had opened up such a lead that he had to respond. That is effectively defensive riding - he waited for the attack and then responded accordingly. Let's be honest, it was a great achievement and he was the best all-round rider in last year's tour, but he never attacked on the mountains.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
I should also add that BMC was nowhere near as dominant last year as Sky was this year, so it appeared as though Cadel did more of it himself. However, appearances can be deceiving.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
I think you're right about Cadel now. He'll be 36 next year which is just a bit too old to be really competitive. Also correct about Sky. Their main goal all season was to win the Tour. They did it. I guess it doesn't matter how you win, as long as you finish first, that's all that matters.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
Fair point on Contador getting busted but Andy hasn't been (as far as we know). Cadel certainly went for it more last year than Wiggins did this year (remember Cadel single handedly halving Andy's advantage on the Galibier, or finishing second on stage 1 and putting time into everyone? The reason I found it a bit dull was because Wiggins never really put himself out there. He was very conservative, sitting behind Froome et al rather than going for it himself. That being said, the great Miguel Indurain did a similar thing and he won 5 on the trot. Great win by Wiggins and Sky have done an awesome job this year. But compared to previous years, the racing was a bit underwhelming.
liquorbox_
Roar Rookie
Put simply, Sky Racing are too professional and sacrificed potential wins during the season to have a group of riders focu on a race that was 7 months ahead. They trained as a group and seem to have focussed a lot more on an even Wattage being achieved to pace themself up the mountains. They would not accelerate hard to catch a break as it would put their HR in the red zone, they would increase to a comfortable attage and then slowly catch up while the break burnt out. It was a brilliant plan and brilliantly executed. Unfortunately this method will be copied and we will see groups of riders all riding at a similar pace over every hill just a hair short of their maximum effort. The only outcome of this will be less attacks in the traditional sense and an increase in performance enhancing supplements to allow for 10watts more than the next team to get the 10 second lead you want. If you know you can maintain a certain wattage for a set amount of time without breaking dwon then this is all you do, sit at that power, keep your ideal cadence and change gears to keep the same output no matter the incline. It is a simple p[lan, a lot harder to do than say, but with the TT abilities of Sky this is all the race became. All the Mountains were a team time trial, but up hill for Sky As for Evans- I think his age has finally caught up, he has to realise that there is a reason 50 year olds dont win races. He will be a great rider in the top 10-15 for the last 2 years of his contract, but I dont see him really improving. I really hope he focuses on the one day classics, With Gilbert and Hushovd he has a perfect foil to allow him to race for a win.
Pondo
Guest
Don't get why Bradley winning in front of a strong team is dull, hasn't that been how it's done for years? He beat everyone else in the race, what else could he do? Alberto and Andy both got busted, so to speak, Cadel waxed bith their asses last year, so what makes you think anyone else could get involved? And Sky may have had riders row up the hills, bur any other rider or team could have got the same tow, and none of them could stand the pace. Even the French press are showing him the respect he's due - have rhat respect, it'll markyou out as a better person.
Colin N
Guest
"The 27-year-old Kenyan-born Brit has been severely restricted by team management, despite obviously looking more comfortable in the hills than Wiggins and staying in touch with his teammate against the clock." See, I'm not sure about that. When Wiggins was left behind for 100 yards in the Alpes, only five minutes before that it looked like Froome had cracked, but found some reserves to come back. Also, the plan had to be for Froome to attack, only for him to do it too early and Evans had already cracked so there was no need for him to go. Then, when Nibali attacked on the penultimate mountain stage, although Froome closed down the first attack with Wiggins on his wheel, he asked Wiggins to close down the second attack as he didn't have he legs. Finally, the last mountain stage, you still can't definitely say whether Froome was stronger because Wiggins admitted that he wasn't properly concentrating on the last section and was lost in the moment. I personally think Froome has a change in pace over the mountains which Wiggins doesn't have, but he wasn't really tested throughout which is both a testament to his own strength and the strength of his team. However, I would like to see Froome riding for another team. Although it's great to see two Brits first and second in a British team, it would be great to see the two battling out. Having said that, as some people have rightly pointed out, would he be in a better position on another team because he's also benefited from the team's incredible preparation and attention to detail? As for the 'panache' sentiment which people keep coming out with. Evans didn't attack last year, he very much played Wiggins' game. He knew he was a stronger TT rider and so looked to respond to any attacks from the bettter climbers. Everyone also says Voeckler rode with 'panache' when he wore the yellow jersey last year. Well, I can't remember it! What made it special was because nobody expected him to hold it for so long, but he only looked to defend. As a Brit, it was a rather extraordinary tour. Seven stage wins, four different winners (all in the Olympic team), first British winner, first and second in overall GC riding for a British team, Cavendish taking it to 23 stage wins (fourth in overall stage wins) and first person to win last stage four times, nevemind four times in succession.