How poor was the performance of the Australian swimming pool team at the 2012 London games compared to previous Olympic Games teams?
In order to look at the facts, a list of medals from recent Olympics has been developed to enable comparison.
FULL AUSTRALIAN OLYMPIC TEAM FOR RIO 2016
As Table 1 indicates, if we compare medals won at the last 17 Olympic Games, the 2012 Australian team performed quite badly, although the 10 medals won in 2012 was nowhere near as disastrous as the 1976 and 1988 teams which won one and three medals respectively.
In terms of individual freestyle events, however, Australia’s failure to win male or female event matches 2008, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1952 and 1948.
And with Australia’s female 4 x 100m freestyle relay team wining gold, the 2012 team avoided emulating the 1948 and 1976 teams by winning at least one swimming gold medal.
Table 1: Olympic Games Medals won by Australian swimmers in 1948-2012 (gold medals won in brackets)
|
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Total Freestyle Individual |
Men Freestyle Individual |
Women Freestyle Individual |
Total Relays |
Men relays |
Women relays |
|
1948 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1952 |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1956 |
14(8) |
8(5) |
6(3) |
10(5) |
5(3) |
5(2) |
2 (2) |
1(1) |
1(1) |
|
1960 |
13(5) |
9(4) |
4(1) |
6(4) |
5(3) |
1(1) |
4 |
2 |
2 |
|
1964 |
9(4) |
7(3) |
2(1) |
4(2) |
3(1) |
1(1) |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
1968 |
8(3) |
5(2) |
3(1) |
4(2) |
3(2) |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
1972 |
9(6) |
1(1) |
8(5) |
6(3) |
2(1) |
4(2) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1976 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1980 |
7(2) |
5(1) |
2(1) |
3(1) |
2 |
1(1) |
1(1) |
1(1) |
0 |
|
1984 |
12(1) |
9(1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
1988 |
3(1) |
2(1) |
1 |
3(1) |
2(1) |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1992 |
9(1) |
4(1) |
5 |
5(1) |
3(1) |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1996 |
12(2) |
7(1) |
5(1) |
4(1) |
4(1) |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
2000 |
18(5) |
12(4) |
6(1) |
4(3) |
3(2) |
1(1) |
5(2) |
3(2) |
2 |
|
2004 |
15(7) |
6(3 |
9(4) |
7(4) |
5(3) |
2(1) |
3(2) |
1 |
2(2) |
|
2008 |
20(6) |
8 |
12(6) |
4 |
2 |
2 |
6(2) |
3 |
3(2) |
|
2012 |
10(1) |
2 |
6(1) |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3(1) |
1 |
2(1) |
But what of the future? Does Australia have the depth to rebound at coming Olympic Games?
If we go by the number of Australians making finals in London, as illustrated by Table 2, then Australia’s performance of 28 finalists compares favourably with recent Olympic Games since 1992.
Table 2: Number of Australian finalists in swimming at Olympic Games 1992-2012
|
|
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
|
Total |
27 |
27 |
30 |
26 |
33 |
28 |
|
Men |
11 |
15 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
|
Women |
16 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
15 |
|
Individual |
23 |
21 |
24 |
21 |
27 |
22 |
|
Men |
8 |
12 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
|
Women |
15 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
15 |
12 |
|
Freestyle |
6 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
12 |
7 |
|
Men |
4 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
|
Women |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
|
Relays |
4 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
Men |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
Women |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Should we panic just because we won no individual gold? Not really. After all, swimming is one of the most competitive of Olympic Games sports with many nations now bidding for medals.
With China again on the scene, along with many other aspiring nations likely to bid for medals at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games, Australia (with its relatively small population) may again find it hard to win gold medals.
Is the answer merely to spend more money? Perhaps, but Great Britain’s considerable expenditure in that sport only delivered 3 minor medals in 2012.
Perhaps we now expect now too much given recent success from 2000 to 2008 without recognising that our 2012 performance compares favourably with medals won from 1976 to 1992.
We have recently become accustomed to great Olympic Games swimming champions with multiple individual gold medal winners including Ian Thorpe, Grant Hackett and Stephanie Rice.
After Australia’s demise from 1976 to 1996, a period when Australia won a collective seven gold medals in six Olympic Games, we were able to win a staggering 18 gold medals in the four Olympic Games between 1996 and 2008
But winning gold medals has always been difficult in one of the most difficult and prestigious of Olympic Games sports.
Rather than bag our team, we should remind ourselves that Australia remains a great swimming nation with the sport able to harness high levels of participation relative to other populations.
Who knows what the 2016 Olympic Games will deliver in terms of Australian swimming success, but the 2012 experience was not a disaster given Australia was the fourth most successful nation in terms of medals won, despite winning just one gold medal?
lolly
Guest
Magnussen was team leader and watching his opening leg must have thrown so many of the other swimmers.But overall, I thought they did pretty good. I'm not sure why all the breast beating is going on really. They need to tighten up technically, I think that's fair. Watching the US team's starts and turns was a real lesson in match race swimming.
lolly
Guest
That's what I'd like to know. I haven't actually seen any sources of these supposed predictions yet.
Beardan
Guest
You should write the excuses for Nick Green. This was the worst swimming team in 20 years. Gone are the champions replaced by big mouth Magnessun and too many kids that spend too much time on twitter.
pope paul v11
Guest
It will be interesting to see how the review announced tonight sees it. Susie O'Neill and big Bill Sweetenham featuring. i hope they get the pessimistic LETTER T from the Commonwealth Bank ads on board as well for a bit of reality checking.
Johnno
Guest
Sheek some good points. Hell I didn't realise Shane Gould was that great. To medal in 5 events across the full spectrum of distances, is truly extraordinary. She may go down in history as the greatest female swimmer ever, that is a statistic that i can't see being beaten in modern swimming ,unbelievable. All countries put the boot into there sports teams and athletes we are no better that is for sure, it is worse in some countries just ask the English and Italian soccer teams.
sheek
Roar Guru
M-Rod, You make a fair point. Either way, we were only going to win one of the 4 x 100m freestyle relays. The women were a surprise, making up for the failure of the men, who were expected to win. So it was one win there, either way. Magnussen was also expected to win the individual men's 100m freestyle, & he lost this by a fingernail. But I guess after his implosion in the relay, there was a lack of sympathy for him at the time. Belinda Hocking was expected, based on her pre-games times, to perhaps win one of the backstroke finals. Emily Seebohm came from the clouds in the 100m backstroke. But after her near-record heat swim everyone (including unfortunately herself) thought she had the gold medal "in the bag". Finally, everyone hoped rather than expected, that Stephanie Rice would regain her form of 2008, but that wasn't to be. At past Olympics, many Aussies have lowered their times. At these Olympics, too few swimmers lowered their times, while Seebohm swam progressively slower from her 100m backstroke heat to semi to final. Right or wrong, the men's 4 x 100m freestyle relay team failing to even get a medal, seemed to suck the very life out of the Aussies. They seemed to drop their collective bundle after this.....
sheek
Roar Guru
Johnno, Shane Gould actually received bad press in 1972 in some quarters because she "only" won 3 golds out of 5 events. Some folk were comparing her to Mark Spitz who won 7 out of 7 at the same meet. However, there were two significant differences. Spitz was 22 & competing at his second Olympics. Gould was 15, & competing at her first Olympics. The other significant factor is that all of Spitz's swims were at either 100m or 200m. Gould medalled in 5 races ranging from 100m to 800m, & including one medley. Her performance under the circumstances was truly extraordinary. In 1976 Steve Holland was shamelessly pilloried for his bronze medal in the 1500m freestyle. Unfortunately, the two Yanks - Goodell & Hackett - "ganged up" on him, making his life hell. Hackett played the bunny, speeding up & slowing down, giving Holland little chance to find his rhythmn. In the end, Goodell swam over the top of Hackett to win gold, while Holland's energy was spent, & he limped in for bronze. But the media, crying out for someone to win gold, crucified him. It was ugly, very ugly. Holland was just 18 at the time. Sadly Johnno, we're no better than a lot of other countries when it comes to criticising our athletes.
M-Rod
Guest
Its interesting to revisit the Swimming 2011 World Championships results where we only won 2 gold medals...our Olympic swimming results are probably just reflecting this form & abilities .. in general it seems we were beaten by the same names who won the 2011 WC's as we were here... perhaps the real question that needs to be answered is who was predicting we'd win anything more than a few Olympic Golds in the pool? On what grounds could they make this claim?
sheek
Roar Guru
Japan are an interesting case. In terms of gold medals, this meet was disappointing, because they won none. Yet their overall medal haul was their greatest in history - 11 - made up of 3 silver & 8 bronze. Difficult to compare to 2008, when they won 3 gold, one silver, 4 bronze, 8 total.
Johnno
Guest
Sheek you were around in the 1970's and 1980's if you can remember was there the same outrage , in the our Olympic gold hauls. To me this isn't a new phenomonon bagging our national teams or individuals when they are down, we just have short memories and collectively forget really fast as time marches on. The 1980's Australian cricket team was ridiculed in the media at the time. And i remember our athletics teams being ridiculed int he 1990's for there lack of gold.
sheek
Roar Guru
Chris, Interesting stats, but the thing about stats is how they can be twisted this way & that. I will tell you something I have found interesting. The swimmers have complained about the enormous pressure placed upon them by the public to perform. This never seemed a problem at the past 3 Olympics but now all of a sudden, it seems to be. In James Magnussen's case, he was the one, not the media, telling us how he was going to "kick ass". Magnussen bombed because he failed to sufficiently respect what the Olympics stood for - the ultimate contest of ability & desire. Australian swimmers are treated like rock stars, & for good reason. They consistently win the most medals for Australia. The rewards are great. Similarly, when they don't perform to expectations, they can also expect to receive severe scrutiny. Between 1992 & 2004, the Australian swimmers contributed between 29-33% of the final medal tally. As a rule of thumb then, you can say that our swimmers are expected to win 3 out of every 10 medals won overall by the Australian Olympic team. Based on this rule of thumb, the swimmers haul of just 10 medals in the pool, means Australia will only tally 30 medals all up in 2012. A glaring exception was 2008, where the swimmers' 20 medals accounted for 43.48% of the total (46 medals). In other words, because we did so well in the pool in 2008 (our best ever), it camouflaged the fact we had fallen off in some other sports. Pre the disaster in 1976, our swimmers had an even more enviable task. Between 1956 to 1972, the swimmers contribution to the final medal tally ranged from 40% to 60%. Surprisingly, the 40% came in 1956 in Melbourne. Although we dominated in the pool, we did well in many other areas as well. So in the modern era (since 1992), our swimming team is generally expected to win about 3 (at the least) out of every 10 medals. Now here's another interesting fact to contemplate - the USA swimming team has a similar effect on the overall USA medal tally that the Aussie swim team has on our overall medal tally. At the past 5 Olympics, the American swimming team's contribution of medals to the final tally has been - 25%, 25.74%, 34%, 27.18% & 28.18%. With one exception (2000), the range has been between 25-28%. So the American swimming team does play a similarly significant role to the Australian swimming team, in relation to the rest of their teams. Whether or not our swimmers like it, they are expected to be our medal leaders. Responsibility comes with the glory.
sheek
Roar Guru
France has actually been consistent. Their medal hauls at the past 3 Olympics has been 6, 6 & 7. The significant difference this time was a jump from one gold medal at each of the past two Games to 4 this time around. China has shown significant improvement, moving from 6 medals (one gold) in 2008 to 10 medals (5 gold) in 2012. Japan & Netherlands have also remained more or less consistent. Germany, Italy & Great Britain regressed at this Olympics. Russia & Hungary have also been consistent, albeit averaging around 3 or 4 medals each time. But its a fall from grace for both swimming superpowers of the 1990s. Australia has been the biggest mover down (-10 medals), but the biggest improver China (+ 4 medals) was only modest by comparison. Even the USA has been consistent, & improved their tally in 2012 by one, from 30 to 31. In the wash-up, Australia's fall from grace has been picked in small bites by lots of other countries.
Lost Earthling
Guest
Before the games I was thinking we would win 3 - 5 gold in the pool so i'm not that surprised to see use win only the one. Swimming is one of the more competitive sports in the olympics due to the large number of countries involved so the medals tend to go to a lot of different countries (though the USA and China are the dominant forces). It may have just been coincidence, but the swimmers who failed to meet the mainstream media's expectations were also the ones most heavily featured in interviews and online social networking stuff (facebook, twitter). Maybe next time around they take need to take everyone's phones and laptops off them when the meet starts and give them back when the swimming is finished. In any case the swimmers have still done the country proud even if they didn't meet everyone's expectations.
Worlds biggest
Guest
No doubt France, Japan & China have improved enormously as evidenced by these games. That's the challenge for the Aussies is to get back up to the top 2.
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
well said k77sujith
k77sujith
Guest
There's some fine talent in the pool but they seem to be heavily distracted from the sole objective. Moreover, nations such as France, Japan and China have improved immensely in the sport and this is probably something Australia never expected. This is just a dull phase Australian swimming is going through but they will surely make a splash in a couple of years provided a much more rigid system of discipline is introduced. Thanks.