At 11am on Sunday I got an email from a New Zealand businessman who has lots of contacts and is generally well-informed about rugby politics. “Just got told Robbie will be sacked on Monday. I suspect it’s true.”
Later in the day he emailed, “Well it looks like John O’Neill can fight off the sacking calls a bit longer. The TV commentators were also sure Robbie was gone. But the media wasn’t as blood thirsty as I thought they would be after the game.”
On Friday I was interviewed by Brendan Telfer on New Zealand Radio Sports. He was quite insistent that Deans needed the Wallabies to defeat the All Blacks to avoid being sacked. I pointed out to him that the Wallaby coach had a contract taking him through to the end of 2013, after the British and Irish tour next year and another round of The Rugby Championship.
Telfer did not mention it specifically, but I would think that his questioning was based on what has been called in New Zealand “an extraordinary tirade” from the former Wallaby coach Alan Jones against Deans’ coaching methods and lack of success since he was appointed in 2008.
Jones suggested the Wallabies would be better off if Deans “remained in bed rather than travel to the ground”, and that the “structured approach” of the Wallabies play was stifling the flair of the players.
We need some history here. When Deans was appointed in 2008 he had won his fifth Super Rugby tournament with the Crusaders. The Wallabies were the fifth-ranked side in the world and in danger of collapse.
For most of last and this year they have been number two in the world, although the Springboks could move past them on the back of their fortunate 16-16 draw against the Pumas at Mendoza.
The fact of the matter is that in 2008 there was no genuine candidate available to the ARU to take over from John Connolly. Jones was one of the Australian candidates who applied with any pretension of being up to the job. But how much time would he have been able to devote with his highly successful broadcasting career?
During the first Rugby World Cup tournament in 1987, while still in the amateur era, Jones refused to allow his players to do their day jobs. But he was unavailable to his team in the mornings while he presented his radio program. Players complained about this afterwards and pin-pointed the absence of the coach as the main reason they did not win the tournament.
Last time the job was up for grabs, the only viable candidate other than Deans was Rod Macqueen. But there was no way Macqueen was going to come back. He carved out the most successful record of any Wallaby coach, but his last year or so was agony as he endured ridiculing and scoffing from senior players.
This was player power at its most obnoxious. And it was the same player power that destroyed David Nucifora’s career at the Brumbies, where he coached them to a Super Rugby tournament victory, despite the team forcing management to sack him early on in the season.
Deans has won just under 60 percent of his Tests with the Wallabies. They were third in the 2011 Rugby World Cup, after being forced out of 2007 tournament in the quarter-finals. This season they defeated Wales, the current Six Nations champions, in three successive Tests.
The Wallabies have also defeated the Springboks in their last four encounters. This includes a Test win at altitude, the first time the Wallabies have done this in 47 years.
And the last two Tests lost by the All Blacks were to the Wallabies, at Hong Kong and Brisbane.
There is no escaping the fact, though, that it is the lack of success by Deans against the All Blacks, with 14 losses out of 17 Tests since he became the coach, which is really hurting his cause.
Like many other rugby writers, I guess, I am getting many nasty emails about how the New Zealander Deans is actually a stalking horse for the All Blacks. Anyone who knows Deans, and the circumstances of his leaving New Zealand rugby, will dismiss this for the nonsense that it is.
The emphatic 22-0 loss by the Wallabies at Eden Park, the first time in 50 years the Wallabies have not scored a point in a Bledisloe Cup Test, has to be put in context. The Wallabies have not won at Eden Park against the All Blacks since 1986. The All Blacks have now won 30 straight Tests at Eden Park since their last loss in 1994 against France. The Wallabies have not won in New Zealand against the All Blacks since 2001. They have not held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003.
And to make matters even more difficult for Deans and the Wallabies, this year they are facing a side that is probably the best All Blacks side since 1987. This is a side that has won a Rugby World Cup, as the 1987 side did. It has firepower around the field in every position, on attack and defence.
Here are some interesting statistics. The top three tacklers for the All Blacks were Liam Messam, Richie McCaw and Aaron Smith, all with eight. The top tacklers for the Wallabies were Micheal Hooper with 19, Sitaleki Timani with 15 and Nathan Sharpe with 14.
Hooper and Timani are new Wallabies this season. Where are Scott Higginbotham, Will Genia and Dave Dennis in these statistics? Timani’s play is an example of what Deans has continually done in his Wallaby stint, and that is to get excellent play out of players who have not been rated in their own Super Rugby side.
Quade Cooper, almost invisible on Saturday night, and Kurtley Beale are the two outstanding examples of players who originally flourished when Deans promoted them.
The top three All Black ball-carriers were Sonny Bill Williams with 16, Israel Dagg with 12 and Hosea Gear with 10. The top three Wallaby ball-carriers were Sitaleki Timani with seven, Stephen Moore with six and Digby Ioane with six.
The top three with metres made for All Blacks were Israel Dagg with 60, Corey Jane with 55 and Hosea Gear with 55. For the Wallabies, Digby Ioane 39, Adam Ashley-Cooper 37 and Sitaleki Timani 15.
The potency of the All Black back three are obvious from these two lots of statistics. By inference, too, the statistics provide a condemnation of the Wallabies’ kicking game, especially that of Berrick Barnes who kicked away far too much ball, given the fact that the All Blacks were totally dominating the Wallabies in the rucks and mauls.
It seems to me that the All Blacks are a much better side under Steve Hansen than they were with Graham Henry as head coach. Admittedly, Henry set up the systems and selected most of the players now starring for the All Blacks. But under Hansen their defence is more dynamic and attacking.
They deliberately do not contest the high ball they kick. They allow the catcher to come to ground and then they smash him and drive through to win the ball.
Their front-line defence, too, is literally awesome. It was noticeable that Cooper, who likes to play flat, was forced to go deeper and deeper into quarter-back territory, to get even a moment of time before the black hulks were trying to knock him over.
A consequence of this intimidating, hard-shouldered, shuddering (for the ball carrier) defence is that the Wallabies did not get a point on the board, although it must be said that the Wallaby captain Genia made the mistake of twice turning down easy shots at goal when the Wallabies were well behind.
Memo to Genia: Always take the points.
It should be remembered, too, that Ireland were kept scoreless in their third Test against the All Blacks which they lost 60 – 0.
And, most importantly, the Wallabies conceded only one try to the rampant All Blacks. It is all very well saying that the All Blacks bombed any number of tries. They did. However, the defence of the out-played and out-gunned Wallabies was brave and well organised, and forced mistakes from the All Blacks. In the last 30 minutes of the Test, the All Blacks were kept scoreless.
This ability and courage of the Wallabies to keep on keeping on deserves credit. As Deans pointed out in a very sombre media conference, no side in the world could have lived with the All Blacks on Saturday night. I doubt whether any other side would have restricted the All Black invaders to a single try.
Alan Jones had a great response when he was under the hammer after an admittedly rare Wallaby loss when he was coach: “The dogs are barking but the caravan moves on.”
This is the only sane response Deans and the Wallabies can make after Saturday night. In two weeks’ time the Wallabies play the Springboks at Perth. I think there will be a couple of changes in the forwards and a couple in the backs. A problem that must be addressed is the lack of tries the Wallabies are recording, with six in six Tests this season.
The Springboks have their own problems. They were extremely lucky to draw with the Pumas. The only try they scored came from a charge-down by Francois Steyn after the Pumas, leading 16-7 and putting the Springboks under intense pressure, were guilty of complacent clearing from a ruck.
In my view, the Wallabies should defeat the Springboks at Perth. They must do this. They were more impressive in losing easily to the All Blacks (although the score-line was only 3-0 after half an hour’s play) than the Springboks were in drawing with the Pumas.
TJ
Guest
Sort out the sub-culture, the fitness and the attitude , then think about the Coach. I think the ARU missed its first chance to fix things when we read about Wallabies having a " food fight" some years ago. Get real......you can't expect maturity on the field when they act like brats off the field. I can just imagine how Nathan Sharpe feels. AB kick off.....straight to Hooper ( missed) , but Richie McCaw coming through at 100 miles per hour to sort Hooper out up front.......WB's kick off and no one follows it up....Barnes shakes his head and the forwards look at each other wondering who was suppose to go up. Where is the cohesion, direction and leadership. AB high ball.......2or 3 forwards allow the WB to catch then they hit and move the ruck backwards....co-ordinated, basic and effective. WB high kick and forwards seem to stand around in the 10 yard area and give away a penalty.....is this international standard, where is the understanding, who knew what was happening ? Big Difference.....but really very basic stuff . SO - where is it falling down ? Looks to me as if the players have no idea what is happening ....surely there is a call for these things - there is a schoolboy level. BACK TO BASICS BOYS and GET FIT....SORT OUT THE SUB CULTURE NONSENSE...DON'T BLAME THE COACH FOR WHAT IS LACKING. Ask the Wallabies from the mid to late 1980,s about Jones. He had his day in the sun and has reached his use by date long ago.....he is devisive and arrogant .....not what we want in the rugby family.
JohnB
Guest
Darren Clarke. Not sure but his track career probably over by then? 4th in 2 Olympics.
murph73
Roar Rookie
When Deans gets sacked, and he will, and when McKenzie becomes coach and begins selecting players on ability, instilling skills and a good work ethic, which results in Australia winning and winning well, every single "pundit" on this site should fall on their swords.
Tony
Guest
Im an All Black supporter IMO one of the main reasons the All Blacks have been bombing tries left right and centre is the disjointed midfield combo of SBW and Nonu. Maá is not a centre and never was, his combo with SBW was precairious at best. AKA SBW trying to do it all himself...I think the better selection option would have been Ben Smith ( what a talent ) or Tamati Ellison at centre at least then the backline would have had some smoothness about it. Conrad Smith is back from injury for the Puma test next week which should sort things out. He has been sorely missed . As for the Boks..they were woeful against the Puma's and I expect the Wallabies to spank them in Perth.
Ian
Guest
Actually, I'm a Wallaby fan. I have a soft spot for the Boks since I was born in South Africa, but my first allegiance is to the Wallabies. It's an illusion concerning the "neutral" referee comment. If you know anything of the Springbok-All Black history you will know, prior to 1992, they played home and away series. Thus, for as many home refrees the Boks enjoyed, so did the All Blacks when they played at home! You can argue bias either way! Interestingly, the last time the Boks played in NZ before isolation (1981), they were robbed of a drawn series due to an appalling refereeing decision by Clive Norling, a neutral ref! In the 1986 series, when the NZ Cavaliers came to SA, there was also a neutral ref for all 4 games, which the Cavaliers lost 3-1. Though it wasn't an official All Black side, many in the side played in the 1987 WC the following year. Pity the Boks didn't play in that tournament...may have been a different result! :)
Krasnoff of Noosa
Guest
Poor team selection, an inability to: formulate a clear concept of play; develop the right skills among players (effective kick and chase, breakdown clearing out); bring about an ethos of ‘manning up’ and playing the game to within an inch of your life; all these point to a coach who is out of his depth and must be replaced—sooner than later. Instead you’re mostly talking about shifting deckchairs on the Titanic.
Jokerman
Guest
Billtongbek, Australia won against the best Northern team in a clean sweap...put it however you wish. The mind will always find a negative.
Suzy Poison
Guest
I will be surprised if we only lose by 22 points in New Zealand.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Red Kev, I really doubt even the current Wallabies can lose to the brain dead Boks. Put it this way, who would you have controlling your team, a bloke who is prepared to have a go, Quade Cooper or the clearly limited kick-alholic Morne Steyn. For me, despite all the criticism, if it was my business, I would chose Deans over Meyer, every-day. The Wallabies, were never going to beat the All Blacks at home, without Horwill and Pocock. And neither is any other team in World Rugby, at the moment. Yes, the AB's bombed 5 tries, but they will destroy the Boks playing like that too, especially since Meyer's incredible innovative new game-plan is to kick the ball down the throats of the world's most dangerous players Dagg, Jane and Gear. Now that's a brilliant game plan, give the ball, to these players, on a platter. That way the AB's won't have to fight in the forwards to gain possession? WTF? And we pay this bloke, top coin?
WoobliesFan
Guest
"By the end of this year I predict we will be 3rd or lower, exactly where Deans found us." Can't wait to see how Spiro's spins that one.
WoobliesFan
Guest
Excellent analysis Morgan and spot on. I see an epic and deep failing within this team, from coach, to some players, to attitude. I stared at the screen the 2nd half Sat night, depressed and angry. Beale the fool carrying useless pounds with a useless attitude. Why is he in the team after a series of very poor performances? Cooper on field seemed ok so he didn't worry me as much. His post-match and twitter comments did. He hasn't grown up. He has hardly matured. Still the same chip on the shoulder and dopey attitude. Tim Horan wasted 1 hr of his life on that guy that he'll never get back. Ioane - cuddling, flirting and day-dreaming with the opposition. Get a grip dude. You just lost an extremely important match. Your team sucks and you don’t seem to care. There's a bad and indifferent team sub-culture at the moment. Old Stewarts with good core values like Sharpie and Moore on one side, and gen-d*ck on the other. And somewhere in the middle we have good honest men just trying to do their thing . Genia - seriously. Sulking and preening all the time. Over-rated? He better be careful, truly careful, for he is on a knife's edge of being forever typecast as a player who has stopped growing. Life must be good for these Reds players after 2011. Good crowds, back page editorials, strong Reds membership numbers. Someone forgot to tell these boys (and they are boys), that these things turn-around real quick. Losses start adding up, fans stop coming, sponsors disappear, money stops flowing...suddenly there's talk about yout position in the team, suddenly you get dropped....not so happy-happy joy-joy now is it. You can tell we're missing Howill’s leadership. Too many lunatics are running loose. And last, but not least, the coach. Robbie "Kiwi" Deans. A dead-man walking...just need to find someone in the ARU with the gazoolies to put him and the fans out of our misries, metaphorically speaking. Uncle and Johnno and written much about this team and the underlying issues....issues at a deep, fundamental level...all the way from the grass roots to the top of the pyramid. All I can think about is how far we have yet to fall. I don’t think we've even hit the bottom yet.
mick-e
Guest
Like the first choice team particularly the forwards. Palmer has to develop more explosiveness around the field though and Im not sure he can do this-like the Franks bros. But you dismiss Pocock too lightly. Hes got a great rugby brain on him and real leadership qualities. Remember he played much of his last test with a serious knee injury and why do the ABs target him so much? Because they know at the breakdown hes so damn good. McCaw would not look half as good if he was forced to act as a lone ranger like Pocock. Leifano is unproven at test level and Smith and McCabe again could be a bit static. Would like to see Shipperly developed as a big busting centre and Lane and the young Force pivot fast tracked. Dont agree Samo should be retained-form up and down too much and hes too old. Need to blood another powerful, youngish 8 or move Timani there and give Neville or Pyle a test berth but thats probably in the future a bit. We need Horwill and Pocock back asap. Sharpie is due to retire. Neville is a looming prospect. Quade Cooper-wasted space. Beale ditto.
WoobliesFan
Guest
I confer. Ordinary, biased, apologist artcile. We caught him out, he got caught out. I do love the comments though.....some awesome rugby fans on this forum.
mick-e
Guest
Rob- Moore is the real captain at the moment. Deans should formalize it. Genia has been totally outplayed by Smith and needs to concentrate on this game. Hes a total no show as captain. Needs to stop defending the Amigos and play himself. As for the Amigos they should look at young Hooper. He puts them to shame. Gill needs to get rid of his lip piercing and he might do the same. We'd have been better off without the Amigos and to have taken on sensible, mature players like Cam Shepherd.
mick-e
Guest
Rob- Moore is the real captain at the moment. Deans should formalize it. Genia has been totally outplayed by Smith and needs to concentrate on this game. Hes a total no show as captain. Needs to stop defending the Amigos and play himself. As for the Amigos they should look at young Hooper. He puts them to shame. Gill needs to get rid of his lip piercing and he might do the same. We'd have been better off without the Amigos and to have taken on sensible, mature players like Cam Shepherd.
CamboUSA
Guest
You are absolutely right at the beginning of the seasons O'Neil spelt it out " deans would be totally judged on bledisloe this year . So what now we here from O'Neil that "it is not time to panic " . Wow I'm a O'Neil fan and I thought he would have had some more balls than that .
Jerry
Guest
No, it's true. But such is Dean coaching prowess and all round mana that he'd managed to lift the Wallabies to 4th before the Wallabies even so much as set foot on a rugby pitch....
Chris
Guest
"although the Springboks could move past them on the back of their fortunate 16-16 draw against the Pumas at Mendoza." For a professional rugby writer you have remarkably little idea how the IRB rankings work. Drawing against an inferior team means your ranking goes backward, not forwards.
Shop
Guest
It is crazy, but O'Niell is more concerned about $ than winning.
SandBox
Roar Guru
Kuruki, the anecdotal evidence would agree. Morgan's excellent post below sums up the Wallabies twitter stars, and it isn't good. Feel lucky the "fame above everything else" mindset hasn't hit your shores yet