The Bombers need a total rebuild

By dermienator / Roar Rookie

So Essendon have missed the finals again. The dream team of Hird and Thompson have not been able to fully engage their magic wand.

So not since 2004 have the Bombers won a final, and unless they defeat the Pies this week that will be eight seasons without at least a 12 win season.

The only other club (not counting the two new teams of course) to have achived this is Richmond.

The fall has been dramatic and in fact enhanced if you look at the previous eight seasons side by side.

In 97-04 they had 114 home and away victories (the most of anyone) and from 05-12 they had 68 home and away victories.

That’s a drop of 46 – again greater than anyone.

What about the flipside? Who was the most improved? Well, surprise surprise, the Cats went from 88 wins in 97-04 (still a solid 11 win a year average so not coming off a really low base) to 129 in 05-12. That is an improvement of 41.

Second and third were the Pies and Saints.

Well how did this demise start?

Clubs are built over seasons, not any one season. And while every club has had a bad draft, it’s not possible to have three in a row and have a good playing list at your club.

The key for me has always been your three to five season players.

They are the ones that should go onto being 150 games plus players and provide your club with at least a competitive 5-8 season future.

At the end of 2004, the Cats had drafted and traded during 99-01 the following players: Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Hunt, Bartel, Johnson, Ablett, Mooney and Kingsley.

All at least played 100 games.

As for the Bombers, during 99-01 they recruited the following Welsh, Hille and Rioli.

They also had Ted Richards, who went on to be another Swans success story.

The chasm between games played, and talent, of the above two lists is enormous and goes a good way to explaining the Cats’ improvement and why the slide of the Bombers was so severe.

So where the do they stand now?

The Cats have the following: Taylor, Simpson, Brown, Gillies, Motlop, Hunt, Menzel, Duncan, Christensen, Vardy and Stringer. A talented list which should ensure Chris Scott has a long stay at the Cattery.

And the Bombers have: Myers, Pears, Hooker, Prismall, Hurley, Zaharakis, Melksham, Carlisle, Colyer, Long, Hardingham, Howlett and Crameri.

A lot of names, and while Hurley, Zaharakis and Crameri are all looking the goods, the jury is still out on the rest.

James Hird continues to state that he is going to improve from within, without any dramatic changes to his list. However, the list of six season plus players below does not inspire confidence especially with a number of them still not able to hold a regular position.

They are: Bellchambers, Davey, Dempsey, Dyson, Fletcher, Gumbleton, Hille, Hocking, Jetta, Lonergan, Lovett-Murray, Montfries, Ryder, Reimers, Slattery, Stanton, Watson and Winderlich.

If they were to be ruthless, half that list could easily be moved on.

For me the Dons need a real rebuild and quickly over the next 2-3 years if they hope to match it with the top teams. What do you think, Roarers?

The Crowd Says:

2012-08-30T23:24:40+00:00

The Doss

Roar Pro


dermienator...you argument while throwing some interesting facts about win losses over the time is overall fundamentally flawed. You highlight a period in Essendon's history where they had much success through 97-04. Obviously 2000 was one of the most successful home and away seasons of all time. Teams have major drop offs after much success. Brisbane after their triple premiership year had much of a slide due to many reasons. To throw figures out Brisbane between 2000-2005 had 80 home and away wins compared to their following 5 years of only 44. A difference of 36. Also in your article you have thrown a number of names that simply baffles me. Watson, Stanton, Ryder and Fletcher struggling to hold their spots? Are you kidding? As for Hille and Bellchambers in that ridiculous list, Essendon are one of the few clubs to have the luxury of having 3 excellent ruck men who will be in any starting 22. Unfortunately (and tried unsuccessfully) playing 3 falls doesn't work. One will miss. I think with Hird saying the improvement will come from within is spot on. There is no doubt players like Howlett, Carlisle, Hardingham and I would even throw into the mix players like Prismall are genuine great players for the bombers in the future. Prismall did not get his chance under Knights with his rotating door policy. I think the best way to see it all is Essendon supporters are not calling for Hird or the coaches heads, not because it is "our James" but rather for the first time in a decade, Essendon supporters are seeing the bigger picture and the potential within the club. You even said it yourself "Clubs are built over seasons".

2012-08-30T01:33:19+00:00

Charlie

Guest


Although Essendon are in a stronger position than last year re Caddy, they still don't really hold the whip hand. With the amound of low draft picks they have had and will continue to have (with low finishes and all the compensation picks they traded in), they can afford to let Caddy go for nothing if the right deal isn't offered. Caddy would then go into the draft (probably the PSD with a nominated price) and there is nothing to stop any of the lower ranked teams, especially Melbourne or Western Bulldogs, from picking him. I think the Bombers will have to offer their first round pick and maybe a swap of later round picks, or a good player (better than any of those listed) and 2nd round pick to get the deal done.

2012-08-29T06:05:49+00:00

camo

Guest


Agree with all this. Stanton is a very good second tier mid. As a first tier he is too easily tagged. To have the most expensive coaching panel and to cut corners on fitness is a joke. Club completely dropped the ball post 2000. Drafting (Davies, Harvey, Laycock et al) to facilities. It is nearly 15 years now and still in all sorts. There is hope at least. But if you look at our record over the last decade it parallels with the 70s. I am told we were sht and broke in the 70s, now we are just sht and what money we have we waste.

2012-08-29T04:55:36+00:00

Paul

Guest


Where do you start. The rot settled in around 2003. Sheedy, should have called a rebuild end of 2002 however he was looking for a contract extension. He then topped up our list with Carlton has beens (Murphy, Allan, Camporeale) and some never hads. These recruiting blunders carry on today. Our administration and recruiting department truly fell asleep at the wheel between 2004-2010. How can a football club have $20m in the bank and only have one recruiter as opposed to the Pies who increased their department 5 fold. I had been saying that our players weren't solid enough for years. However, to get our players to put on 3 to 4 kilos over one preseason was total mismanagement. Hird & Thompson & the weapon have a lot to answer for. Players that should be retired: (How the heck have these players had AFL careers) Slattery and Dyson. Players that should be retired: (These players have achieved very little) Hille, Monfries, Winderlich and McVeigh. Players that are inconsistent and/or mentally fragile: Davey, Jetta, Reimers, Prismal and Colyer. Players whose juries are out: Gumbleton, Hardingham, Hocking, Hooker, Lonergan, Lovett-Murray and Stanton. This is about half our list. I do hope that the players in the fourth category prove me wrong. However, they do not install confidence either. I am probably the most disappointed I have been in the EFC as anytime in the last 10 years.

2012-08-29T01:58:39+00:00

Macca

Guest


They can leave for nothing but they can also be traded, agree about their value, for mine they would be the set of steak knifes. I wouldn't be so sure about Warnock, the blues have been burnt by Jacobs and Grigg being headhunted by other clubs and then the blues having to take whatever is offered. GWS have the money to match Warnock's contract or better it so the blues wouldn't be looking at a payout.

2012-08-29T01:54:01+00:00

Matt F

Roar Guru


Warnock would be a good fit for the Gianst but he just signed a 3 year extension in July so that won't happen. Thornton and Bower don't have much currency at all. Certainly not enough to get a player like Caddy from GC or one of the 17 y/o's from GWS. Besides, Thornton and Russell are both unrestricted free agents so they can leave for nothing.

2012-08-29T01:43:30+00:00

Macca

Guest


Matt F - Ruck and Defence are what they need, wouldn't be surprised if the blues offer Warnock or Hampson (more likely Warnock in my opinion) after Casboult has emerged, Bower, Thronton & Russell will all be offered around as well so the blues might be able to do some sort of a deal with GWS.

2012-08-29T01:39:05+00:00

Matt F

Roar Guru


They won't trade Bellchambers. I was just looking at players who fit Ian's catergory's that GWS would really want/need. Ruck and Defence are the positions that GWS need to improve more than any other.

2012-08-29T01:37:33+00:00

Macca

Guest


We will just have to wait and see, if they get him for what you are proposing it will be a steal though.

2012-08-29T01:30:34+00:00

camo

Guest


he will nominate Essendon. Then the EFC has to do a deal. Gumbleton Pears or Hooker, Monfries or Jetta + a second rd pick will be involved. Adelaide has lost Gunston Davis Tippett so they will need a tall. Could be a third party.

2012-08-29T01:22:12+00:00

Macca

Guest


Ian - Yes they have some trade value but even as a package deal I think GWS could do better.

2012-08-29T01:19:41+00:00

Macca

Guest


Matt F - If the bombers got rid of bellchambers their ruck stocks would be thin with Hille coming to the end of his career and Ryder being very inconsistent. Agree on the other Reimers and Monfries but I haven't really seen Hooker do enough to warrant giving up much for him.

2012-08-29T01:12:48+00:00

Ian Whitchurch

Guest


Macca, I said they have trade value. I didnt say each of them were worth a minidraft pick by themselves. All players that fit that profile are of interest to GWS, especially if they have some height and can play in defense. Deals can be done around a combination of those players, minidraft picks, first round picks and compensation picks. The critical thing about any deals involving players, the one thing that will decide whether it happens is whether they want to go to GWS. If they dont, the deal wont happen.

2012-08-29T01:11:45+00:00

Macca

Guest


You may well be right with Caddy but I wouldn't be counting on it, if he wants out other clubs will be making their case very strongly and offering a substantial deal to the Suns.

2012-08-29T01:05:10+00:00

Matt F

Roar Guru


I don't know how much currency Reimers really has and Monfries probably wouldn't be a priority for the Giants. Hooker would fit nicely though. Bellchambers would fit perfectly into that description as well and plays a posistion that the Giants need to fill. I can't see Essendon letting him go though.

2012-08-29T01:01:46+00:00

camo

Guest


Correct. Losing to Melbourne was inexcusable. They fielded a decent side that night too. It underlined the paucity of leadership, inexperience and fragile mentality of the group. They did also lose to Syd and Collingwood by a kick. They fell in against North due to deplorable kicking. If you review that game, they dominated every category and kicked appalling. There is much work to do. $$$ wont be an issue for Essendon re: Caddy. Mountains of cap room.

2012-08-29T00:46:54+00:00

Macca

Guest


Ian - I know Sheedy being at GWS might give those blokes a bit of a leg up but surely GWS could do better than those three. The blues will want to get rid of Bower, Thornton & Russell but I am not expecting much from them and I think the three you mention for that mould. GWS would be better going for David Ellard.

2012-08-29T00:43:08+00:00

Macca

Guest


Camo - He might be "tight" with those players but he can hang out with them in Melb and play for another Melb club, it might give Essendon the inside running but another $100k here or there could change that. As for the bombers finishing "where I expected" and condemning them, firstly I am not condemning them just pointing out they have some issues, and while injuries have hurt them I am not sure if a full list would have had them win some of the games they lost by big margins, they should of beaten Melb regardless of injuries and they fell in against the likes of North early on. Plus they are going to be 2 games and percentage outside the 8 an a game and percentage adrift of 9th so they could of won a game or 2 more and still been about where I expected.

2012-08-29T00:40:01+00:00

brendan

Guest


True Hawker but from 1998 to 2008 Wells drafted a premiership player with the highest draft pick being pick 7 so he is good at what he does.

2012-08-29T00:35:28+00:00

camo

Guest


Second rd pick + Pears Gumbleton Monfries Jetta Hooker Davey Reimers = plenty to work with. Mark Austin is playing key back. Troy Chaplin apparently has currency.

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