Tomorrow is the first day of Spring, and brings with it for many the true beginning of racing’s Spring carnival in Melbourne, Memsie Stakes day at Caulfield.
This is the day when many Caulfield and Melbourne Cups hopefuls resume, as well as those with an eye on the weight-for-age championship of Australasia, the Cox Plate.
Sydney’s card, while reasonably thin tomorrow, contains two key races for those with Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas aspirations, as well as stayers looking to make an impression on their way to the Metropolitan a month or so down the track.
So without any further ado, let’s have a look at a few horses we might be able to make some money off by the time the sun sets tomorrow afternoon.
Better Than Bank Interest – Pierro and All Too Hard
There aren’t many out-and-out shorties running tomorrow, and none that I’m keen to declare a good thing, but if you’re looking for a banker to allow you to play in the latter half of the day, a quinella in the Run to the Rose (race 5 at Warwick Farm) might be the way to go.
Pierro (pictured) needs no introduction after taking out the Sydney Triple Crown in his two year old year, and has never been beaten.
All Too Hard has only seen three horses finish in front of him in his five starts, with one of them being the Gai Waterhouse-trained superstar and the other two not to be seen in this race.
You might not want to take $2.10 about Pierro considering he’s a run behind All Too Hard this campaign, but aren’t keen about betting against a potential champion either.
Take them in a quinella, and get anywhere between $1.50 and $1.80 for your trouble.
Each Way All Day
Race 7 at Caulfield sees a full sixteen horse field tackling the 1700m in the Listed Slickpix Stakes, and Avienus is a horse that we can bet with on confidence at around the $8 mark.
She’s a horse that has spent the last couple of years shooting for the stars by racing in group one handicaps and weight-for-age races, so has a poorer strike than a horse of her ability otherwise might.
While appearing hard to catch, she generally takes a few runs to get going in her campaigns, but holds her form when she finds it.
Her last start second behind the smart Parthian suggested that she’s now ready to win. Dropping 2.5kg’s on that run, stepping up to a distance where she’s had three starts for two wins and a second, and striking her favoured dead track all suggests that we can have something each-way on Avienus and line-up to collect by race’s end.
Rose’s Roughie
The McNeil Stakes for 3YOs is race 4 at Caulfield, and it traditionally throws up some big odds horses into the placings.
Last year saw the second and third horses start at $26 and $41 respectively, the 2010 winner Sistine Angel jumped at $15 beating a $13 chance and a $51 bolter, while the 2009 edition saw Éclair Fastpass run third at $21.
With that in mind, it might be worth throwing a few dollars toward the Russell Cameron-trained Lady of Harrod’s at $41 or more, a filly that has more talent than her results have shown.
She did everything wrong on debut in last year’s Maribyrnong Plate and still managed to run 4th of 16 before being put away for some more education.
She raced greenly again upon resumption before putting it all together to record victory the first time she saw Caulfield, and was then sent for a spell once more.
First up two weeks ago she was backed in from 31’s to 21’s before failing to handle the heavy track. Forget she ran.
She’s drawn to get a great run from barrier five, her previous winning run at the track was second up like she is tomorrow, and she’s got the lightest weight of all runners. Lady of Harrod’s is well worth a tickle at huge odds.
Get ready to enjoy the day tomorrow, I’ll certainly be at Caulfield watching on, and make sure you keep an eye on each horse in the Memsie Stakes itself, as you’ll probably find that a good portion of the runners will be winning some big races in the next twelve weeks.
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Also, I heard Steve Farley said on Racing Retro overnight that Sincero only cost 8,000 ( good picking !!). Just goes to show that good racehorses can come from ANYWHERE !!
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Crikey Dick, I've just looked his pedigree up and have to say he was very, very judiciously BRED by his breeder (whoever that may be). Not only is he inbred to two full sibling sisters in the 4th remove of his pedigree (through his Sire Umatilla's damline AND his dam's damline) but the family in question IS one of the 'Best' internationally, incl the damline of champion sire REDOUTE'S CHOICE !! :)
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Yes Justin, an absolute Champion racehorse at the white hot top Group One level; bit of a pity though that he didn't leave more stakeswinners as a sire (besides Lonhro and to a lesser extent Niello and Hosannah). John Hawkes said much the same in an interbview (saw Part 1) with John Tapp shown over here in NZ last week. And it certainly wasn't through lack of patronage by the Inghams/Woodlands Stud - and quite a few speedy mares WERE put to Occy incl those from the Star Kingdom line and Luskin Star mares. I actually would've thought that Canny Lad mares would suit him admirably (not just because of more speed CL wd've imparted, but also the pedigree affinities.). There is a rather interestingly bred daughter of Occy at stud here in (NZ) - name of Diamond Deck, showed all sorts of raw potential as a young filly, but I think 'they' (the 'connections' ) pushed her too soon on unseasonal tracks (read 'soft' ) and then off to stud in indecent haste. Diamond Deck rates as a 3/4 sibling to LONHRO ( the extra 1/4 being provided by Last Tycoon as her damsire - absolute dynamite IF mated ok, which it appears she has).
Justin Cinque
Expert
Andrew C - octagonal's cox plate shows what a great horse he was. He was never at his best going left handed. In sydney, he was more comfortable and successful, winning the three year old triple crown and two bmws. He only won three races in melbourne from 11 starts. In sydney he won 11 from 17. Still a hero of mine and horses like lonhro and pierro are a testament to his legacy.
nan
Guest
Fair Call- he was a fav of mine but let me down big time so many times- i had him in my Quaddy which i got and i was impressed with run but can he beat pierro or more joyous in a cox plate i dont think so. Cameron thanks for the tip on lady of harrods wow 50 ew made my day . What will get close to Pierro?
BBP
Guest
I wrote a post a while back doubting Pierro. That was a bit silly. BUT I did also say this, and some of you guys did say this !! Ha ! BBP said | August 7th 2012 @ 11:17am | Report comment Sincero is my smokie of the spring. He was desperately unlucky with barrier draws and luck in running in the autumn. He has the ability. He could clean up a few big ones over the next 3 months. Each way in everything he runs in and you can’t go wrong. GrantOz said | August 7th 2012 @ 11:28am | Report comment It’s just funny that. I’ve never rated him. Up and down more than a yo-yo in terms of form, though I agree about some unfortunate runs and draws. I’m always hesitant to jump on him. Will be interesting to see how he returns. AndrewTheHawk said | August 8th 2012 @ 4:45pm | Report comment Yep, Sincero’s very much up and down. But he could do something, it will be interesting. nan said | August 8th 2012 @ 7:46am | Report comment Sincero too many chances probably a listed horse not a group horse. Listed ! HA !
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
Hell yeah Justin, Octagonal only won the Cox Plate @ the left-handed track @ the Valley!!! Of course 'Roy' won quite a few times in Sydney on right-handed tracks - simply because he was trained there @ Warwick Farm (by Hawkes) and naturally enough raced there often. But hey guys, great discussion and I wish I'd looked in on here for those tips yesterday. Bugger...........
Bondy.
Guest
Well done cameron with lady of harrods.
Travis Noonan
Roar Rookie
Good tip Rosey, lady Of Harrods too good
Bondy.
Guest
Good observation cameron, I think sincero went to the caulfield stks after the epsom 1600 up to 2000 I had the querie "thats why I didnt bet". I think the speed comes with the fav here its now or never for this horse Luckygray.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I agree Bondy. After what Moody did with Manighar in the Autumn (including a dominant win first up), his internationals are huge watch runners. The question is, do they go in the quaddie? What a master trainer Moody has become.
Cameron Rose
Expert
G'day Crills, Nice to hear from you mate. Very, very even card of racing, the quaddie and Big 6 especially are going to be tough to nail down. I'll keep an eye on Koranovsky, and hopefully i've got some left in the kitty by then to have a play!
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think barriers are more crucial in WFA races, especially in Melbourne because there often isn't much tempo early, and if a horse wants to push forward to be in the first half dozen from a wide barrier they can often get posted out on a limb. Happy Trails is very much an interesting runner, and I fancy that there'll be a place for him in my quaddie.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Bondy/Justin, I certainly see where you're coming from in regards to Sincero, but his three Melbourne runs were over 2000m at WFA. Firstly, I'm not convinced about the horse at anything over a mile, and as a 4yo he wasn't ready for a Melbourne Spring WFA campaign coming off a Stradbroke win on the minimum. He'll get the perfect run just behind whatever speed there is, and be the one the rest have to catch at the 200m. If he can't get the job done today with so many things in his favour, then I'll have some queries. As usual, the Memsie is going to be a key form reference for the rest of the Spring.
Bondy.
Guest
You know guys i'm very interested to see this Viola Ici (Moody) if it gets beat roughly three lengths i'd call that solid work,its most definantely here for the cup,interesting its missed a place once first up and second up, first up 8 -511 second up 8-421 and also I think Myluckyday is a better horse in melbourne he could come good this spring.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Travis, if Happy Trails drew a gate I'd be with you. Happy Trails and I have history and I've finally learnt that I shouldn't back him when he draws wide - it's been about three near misses at the place (odds of better than 5/1 on each occasion for the drum) that has taught me this. But he won from gate ten first up and may be able to settle close from the 11 tomorrow. I think he could have a real big spring and he's up to winning a Memsie I feel. He tends to present well in the parade too, so I'll be looking for a nice shiny coat tomorrow! Just wish I could be sure he'd be closer to them.
Travis Noonan
Roar Rookie
The memsie stakes lacks the depth it has in previous years , Luckygray is a good horse but I think the mile handicaps will be he's go not a WFA horse, Mr O'Ceirin is a nice each way in the Slickpix Stakes geniune galloper heading in the right direction very similar to his stablemate Moudre in terms of X-Factor and Peal Of Bells in the Premier's Cup seems a changed horse. Have to say though that Happy Trials is outstanding value at $12 beat Southern Speed first up who would give the memsie a real shake, I think he's gotta be the best e/w bet all day.
Justin Cinque
Expert
They are plenty that don't excel the Melbourne or Sydney way. Octagonal was another who wasn't at his best in Melbourne. He's a beautiful black horse, Sincero, I'm looking forward to assessing him in the yard!
Bondy.
Guest
Justin. He could be a bit like Tie The Knot ,I dont think he won in melbourne and won about 5 mill in prisemoney. I hope he goes well though"sincero" I dont want him hanging in or out or getting on the wrong leg we need him down there and fireing for the entire spring.I'll be interested on your verdict on him next week !.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Bondy you read my mind!