With the AFL finals on us once again, the preverbal chatter around the water-cooler on how teams will fare has commenced.
This year the belief that a team can win the flag from outside the top four seems to have gathered far more momentum amongst commentators, the media and fans alike.
Perhaps this is down to the overall evenness of the top eight in terms of wins and losses, with just three games separating first from eight.
It could also be due to the fact that the in-form reigning premiers Geelong occupy sixth position, and there are question marks around top-four teams Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood.
However, this speculation ignores history. The last team to win the premiership from outside the top four was Adelaide way back in 1998.
The reigning premiers fought back from a thumping loss in the first week of the finals to win back-to-back titles. However, this was achieved under a different finals format.
Since the current finals format was introduced back in 2000, no side that has finished the regular season outside the top four has reached the grand final, let alone won the flag.
In fact, even reaching the preliminary final has been a rare occurrence. Since 2000 only twice has a team outside the top four reached the preliminary final in that year.
The first was back in 2001 when Hawthorn recaptured their early season form to defeat Port Adelaide (in later years branded ‘chokers’) at the then Football Park by three points.
The second was in 2007 when Collingwood defeated a West Coast side minus Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr in extra-time at Subiaco.
There have been several other matches over the years where the outside team has been in a dominant position (Geelong in 2005, Adelaide in 2009, Sydney in 2010) but have been overrun.
I will leave to others to offer their explanations for these figures, but if history is anything to go by, it will be Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood that will make it through to the preliminary finals.
jack
Guest
how does it even sound like the EPL?
bryan
Guest
HA!! :) Better get a new crystal ball!
FootyPsychic
Guest
Here is what's going to happen. Hawks def Pies by 15-31 points, Adelaide def Sydney by 11-19 points Geelong def Freo by 15-31 points and West Coast def N Melb after they get a scare and win by 4-8 points. Geelong defeat Sydney in Sydney by 13-23 points and Pies def West coast in melb by 9-17 points Geelong defeats hawks in prelim 1 by 1-9 points and Adelaide def Collingwood at home 11-24 points Geelong defeats Adelaide in the Grand Final by 33-59 points.
Nathan of Perth
Roar Rookie
I think this is definitely a year where someone is going out in straight sets - just a question of whom! :)
Deep Thinker
Guest
Perhaps - but in Geelong's case they will only need to win 1 game interstate. That is very do-able.
Deep Thinker
Guest
SurlyPie - not exactly. Yes it says the competition is even. But the articles fails to mention how by historical standards it is unusual that the competition is so even. How many seasons since the current format was introduced in 2000 has the top 8 been this even? I suspect there hasn't been a season even close to this one. By not taking this into account, the article has ignored history. Rich_daddy - I'm not saying the advantage of the top 4 is not crucial in an even competition, but the advantage gained is not insurmountable like in previous seasons. You can't point to certain historical facts that support your argument while at the same time stripping those historical facts of all their context. Let's not forget that this season is a unique season by historical standards.
brendan
Guest
That might be the omen bet fpr the nrl this year Strummer Jones.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
The eveness of the teams means the advantages the top 4 sides get will be even more crucial. Reaching the prelim final would be a monumental achievment as its only been done twice in the last 12 years. Reaching the grand final would be unprecdented under the current finals system. There is also the fact that since 2007 the two teams that have advanced straight through to the preliminary final with a week off have played in the grand final. So the teams outside the top 4 are up against history in more ways than one.
kick to kick
Guest
It's true the competition is even this year, as reflected by the ladder. However the structure of the finals makes it very hard for a team outside top four to make it. Away wins - especially interstate against quality opponents - are rare in finals. Hawthorn vs either Adelaide or Sydney in the GF is most likely.
Strummer Jones
Guest
That was the year the Rabbitohs beat the Doggies in the GF, right?
TheKavorka
Roar Rookie
The article pretty much hits the mark. The only way I think, if a team from outside the top 4 can do it is if the top 4 are Victorian teams, thus eliminating the need for a Melb team to travel interstate...otherwise, it ain't going to happen anytime soon. It also highlights what a waste of time a top 10 in the future would be.
brendan
Guest
If Geelong have an easy win over Fremantle (which is unlikely) play Adelaide or Sydney the next week and get over the line they are then in a preliminary final in Melbourne .However my Father always used to say if the dog hadn't stopped for a piss he would have caught the rabbit so if isn't a good start to a finals campaign.
John Howard
Guest
If anyones going to buck the trend, Geelong will.
SurlyPie
Guest
Pretty sure the article didn't ignore that fact, Deep Thinker. In fact paragraph 3 of the article says pretty much exactly that.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
It's going to happen sometime. No time like the present North Melbourne.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Hmmm... not convincing. This article ignores history. Yes, history suggests that in recent times, teams outside the top 4 don't win premierships. But to deny the chances of teams outside the top 4 fails to put the history you cited into context. This year the gap between positions 1 to 6 is just 2 games, and only 3 games between position 1 to position 8. This suggests the teams are very evenly matched. There are very few times in history that it has been this even - and if you don't take THAT into account you are ignoring history.
Brian
Guest
I agree with Matt that we can't be certain but I think part of the closeness of the ladder was the uneven draw. There were 3 rubbish teams this year so really instead of 22 rounds we had more like 18 which brings the ladder closer. NM played GWS and GC twice whilst Hawthorn only once. I would suggest the difference between them is more than 3 games, although not as much as when they met and Buddy kicked 13.
Matt F
Roar Guru
I think one of the reasons why it's more likely that a team outdside the Top 4 can win this season (or at least make a prelim or GF) is because it is much closer than in previous seasons. For example, the gap on the ladder between 1st and 8th last season was 34 points, or 8.5 games. This season it's only 3 games. In fact, if a team finished 8.5 games behind Hawthorn this season they would have finished 14th, 1.5 games behind the Lions in 13th. It could still end up being the Top 4 playing in the prelim finals and the fact that there are 4 non-Victorian teams in the Top 8 (2 in the Top 4) this season means that travel will be more of a factor then in the last few seasons, but I don't think that anybody can be as certain of this like in previous seasons.
chris
Guest
Sounds like the EPL.