The Sydney Swans have defied the experts this year and over the last decade and there is no reason to believe they won’t do it again in this Saturday’s AFL Grand Final.
Since 2002 the Swans have missed the finals only once in 2009.
This has defied the trend of all the other current top clubs who have had a bottoming out period at the lower end of the ladder for a few years to obtain some top draft picks and rebuild for a future finals assault.
The Swans have managed to defy this trend on the back of a winning culture built by Paul Roos and some very smart recruiting. Their game is built on a tight defence and winning contested ball and with this game plan they very rarely are not competitive.
They have been able to take unwanted players from other clubs and continually turn them into consistent performers. Of the current crop Martin Mattner, Ben Mcglynn, Josh Kennedy and Rhys Shaw are great examples of this. Kennedy has become an elite midfielder and Mattner since being discarded by Neil Craig has been very consistent and hardly played a bad game. Mcglynn, Shaw and numerous others have shown that astute recruiting can be better than spending time in the doldrums.
After all, in a competitive market like Sydney it is important to have a successful team and culture to keep the fans turning up.
Another sign of this clubs greatness was the succession plan. After Paul Roos handed the reins over to John Longmire he has not missed a beat as senior coach and is arguably coach of the year this year – although Brenton Sanderson may beg to differ. The process was seamless and did not have any of the drama of the Malthouse-Buckley handover. It showed class and professionalism from the individuals and people involved.
No doubt Hawthorn will start favourites with Luke Hodge back and the superstars Mitchell, Rioli, Sewell and Franklin. However the Sydney Swans are more even across the board as shown in the Brownlow medal count where Jack, Kennedy, Hanneberry and O’Keeffe were all prominent.
The Hawks looked shaky at times against the Crows under pressure with players making simple mistakes and even Buddy missing set shots.
If the Swans can keep the game close and maintain scoreboard pressure as the Crows did we are in for a super Grand Final. They can not afford to let them get a big lead as they are the best front-runners in the business.
Not many people tipped Sydney to be in the top four this year or to beat Adelaide away in the first final. Not many people will be tipping them again this week but with a wet forecast on offer and a tight contested game likely I expect the Sydney Swans to defy the odds and the experts yet again.
Stewie
Guest
But then, I seem to recall earlier in the year, round 5, when the Swans won by 37 points. Buddy was held goalless then. Hawks had a 20 point lead at halftime, and the Swans clawed back. Adam Goodes outscored Hawthorn in the second half. The scoreline read: Hawthorn: 2.3 15 vs Adam Goodes: 3.2 20
Nathan Godfrey
Guest
Interesting article, particularly the swans ability to develop a list and avoid the "bottoming out" period. No questions over their succession plan. Maybe in 2013 it will be Roos v Longmirer (GWS v Swans)??? I think the weather conditions will help the swans game plan. Swans by 7 points in the GF. Kennedy to win the Norm Smith medal.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I think you Hawks are mistaking Sydney for the 2005/6 teams. This mob much more Depth, versatility and eveness. Sydney 30+.
Mango Jack
Guest
The Swans have the stifling game to keep the lid in the Hawks, but for how long? Agree, Rioli is the most likely to produce that match turning moment, just as he did in 08, when he disposessed 2 Cats defenders all by himself. I still can't work out how he did that. He's a big game player as he showed lst week with that mark and goal at the end.
Smooth Banana
Guest
U guys really rate Sydney ey? Hawks will win easily. Expect both sides to come out strong- bones crunching. Hawks by 27. One word- rioli.
Mango Jack
Guest
Agree, Brian. I always feel more confident when he plays on and doesn't have to think about it.
Mango Jack
Guest
The best guide is the last time they met, in the final round. On the Swans favourite SCG, they had the perfect start, leading by 38 points by the end of the 1st quarter. Slowly the Hawks reined them in and held them off. Some say good luck, but they showed again, against Adelaide last week, that they can play below their best and still pull it off. I expect either of 2 results on Sat. Either the Hawks will run riot and win big, or it will be close, but some piece of Cyril magic will get them home in the end.
Mango Jack
Guest
A little optimistic, Darren
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
You had me nodding in agreement with everything you wrote until you expressed surprise at Buddy missing set shots
Matt F
Roar Guru
Yeah, the "swans love wet weather footy" idea is based around a Melbourne media that has taken a long, long time to realise that we're not the same team that we were in 2005. Our wet weather record actually isn't that great. Though we have improved a bit this year. A close loss to Collingwood and good wins at the SCG against the Roos and Dogs were all in the.
Brian
Guest
Surely the best analysis is that Hawthorn narrowly beat Sydney by 7 pts only 5 weeks ago. Although both Bolton & Rioli did not play.
John D
Guest
Ditto
Strummer Jones
Guest
I do agree he is definitely not "best recruit of the last 10 years", but he's not toooooo bad. Agree Hannebury is annoying. I hope he did 10,000 disposal drills this week, otherwise he could lose the Grand Final for the Swans.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I'm yet to see any serious analysis of the Swans match up. Just Hawthorn best team all year, Buddy, Cyril, Mitchell etc, should win, bad game they had to have, better than '08 etc Reminds me ( painfully ) of 1998 when North lost to Adelaide after 11 straight. The Swans match up nicely all over the ground, and arguably have more depth. All things being equal Sydney have got this.
Winston
Guest
That is true. What else are they supposed to do when the opposition is attacking? I think their defensive style says more about their midfield than anything else. Back then they had guys like Kirk, Bolton, Luke Ablett, Ben Mathews, Fosdike, Paul William which is hardly a group that instills fear into the opposition. The best the could do was to tackle heaps and hope the opposition stuffs up so they turn the ball over. So I think the fact that Swans are playing a more attacking style now is more because of their personnel allowing them to.
Winston
Guest
You're kidding right? He is their worst player in the senior team (Hannebery also a worthy contender). His only strength is running in a straight line and then bombing the ball. His right foot sucks, his left foot sucks when under pressure, he can't handball, he makes bad decisions, continuously runs into other Swans players, often gets tackled for holding the ball - do I need to go on?
Dingo
Guest
Head says Hawks, heart says Swans.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Hmmm, I'm not so sure. I think they actually struggle a bit in the rain. Got beat by a poor Adelaide team last year in the wet, and same with Freo at SCG in wet. Struggled to beat Richmond in wet last year at SCG. Can't recall any wet games this year other than Collingwood at Homebush round 21 (?) when there were showers. BTW, it appears the prose of many comment responses to this article are similar ;-)
Sean
Guest
"It does not make for good viewing and winning at all costs comes with a price particularly in this corporate environment where competition for dollars is difficult. Winning does not necessarily translate to corporate success and whether the purists want to acknowledge or not the AFL is a business and a very big one at that." It hasn't hurt the Swans too badly. Most valuable guernsey sponsorship in Australian sport. Also people always forget that the whole point of Sydney's defensievness in the 05 era was people like Hall, O'Loughlin and O'Keefe recieving the ball on a fast break, and if that failed, setting up scoring opportunities from bounces and throwins. Aside from personnel I don't think too much has changed actually. The fact that there was good tackling and defensive organisation doesn't mean the Swans were trying to kill football or whatever. That's always been a very unfair perception based on how good they were at avoiding conceding goals when they were playing poorly..
Adrian
Guest
Well written Micky O, Swans are the quiet achievers and will go about their business of picking apart the Hawks with a minimum of fuss. Maybe could have added that unless your're a Hawks supporter - most people have a soft spot for the Swans and many will be cheering for them Saturday.