As we eagerly prepare for Sunday’s NRL grand final, there is a mountain of statistics available for fans to devour and any single factoid, or group of them, that could easily sway a punter’s prediction.
The one that nudges me towards Canterbury as the 2012 champions is about the history of their forward packs in title deciders – and we have all heard that forwards win big games, the games that matter most.
One of rugby league’s most coveted awards is the Clive Churchill Medal, handed out to the best player on the field in the rugby league grand final.
Canterbury forwards have won three Churchills, with big men Paul Dunn (1988), Jim Dymock (1995) and Willie Mason (2004) the proud recipients.
Most judges feel if the Bulldogs have an edge over Melbourne Storm it is with their huge and mobile forward pack, which has overpowered and overrun all comers in the club’s impressive charge to the minor premiership. Speedy giants, all with footwork and deft ball skills.
That’s the Bulldogs’ stock in trade and we saw them use it to great advantage with last week’s second half blitzing of Souths in the GF qualifier.
Greg Eastwood collected the Man of the Match award in the game but the accolade could easily have gone to Sam Kasiano, Aiden Tolman or Frank Pritchard.
There are other forwards who have made enormous contributions to Canterbury’s exciting surge back to prominence this year.
Under coach Des Hasler, skipper Mick Ennis has left most of his niggling ploys in the locker room, Englishman James Graham has been a rock up front while young back-rower Josh Jackson has been one of the finds of the season.
Toss in the likes of workaholic David Stagg and the promising Dale Finucane and it’s easy to see why the Dogs are barking at the pointy end of the season. They’ve got wall-to-wall big men and Hasler has somehow instilled in them a discipline that is impossible to ignore.
In a game that will feature a physical, take-no-prisoners battle up front, I believe Canterbury has monsters that will seize the upper hand and ultimately create enough chances for their try-hungry backs.
A glance at the season’s stats shows that the Bulldogs forward pack ranked second (behind Cronulla) in the NRL for metres gained, with 12,559 metres eaten up at an average of 523 per game. In the offload department, the Bulldogs were ranked on top with 305.
I predict much will depend on the performance handed in by Ennis, the Dogs’ captain and hooker. His opposite, Cameron Smith, is one of the best big match players I have ever seen and Ennis should take it upon himself – legally, of course – to ensure Smith not allowed to run, pass or kick at will.
Melbourne’s kicking game will be designed to repeatedly turn Canterbury’s big men around but the tactic looks to be highly dangerous.
No team has been more lethal returning the ball than the Bulldogs this season. They have made 11 line breaks from kick returns and scored an incredible 17 tries from their own half.
Ben Barba has been the standout in this area with nine clean breaks from kicks.
Significantly, the statistics show, like neon lights, the Storm have made the most number of poor kick-chases this year (58).
I appreciate that you can read almost anything into statistics but in a game as close as this one is likely to be, trends or bad habits can prove to be the differential.
There are plenty of times when we predict big games such as Origins and grand finals to explode into something very special, so memorable that they enter the annals as classics. And often they are fizzers.
Having said that, with the Bulldogs versus Storm 2012 decider, they may as well etch it into history right now.
I feel it is going to be a match of great moments, player heroics and indelible memories.
I am tipping a Bulldogs win by seven with Dogzilla, Sam Kasiano, winner of the Churchill Medal.
Gremlin
Guest
Issac Luke showed how to beat the dogs. The Bunnies were winning the game until reynolds got injured. Moving isaac luke to cover at half was a massive tactical error. He drove the large bulldogs forwards crazy with is runs out of dummy half, to the point where Kasiano was interchanged at the 15 minute mark. It's the storm hope to beat the bulldogs on sunday smith and slater will have to replicate this 4 the full 80 minutes
Let the One King Rule
Guest
"Melbourne fans suffered enough for a crime they did not commit." This is truly one of the silliest statements I've had the pleasure to read on this site. We should cancel the punishment of blatant cheats because 'the fans didn't commit the crime'? Hey, while we're at it, why not refuse to suspend a player found guilty of foul play? After all, it'll cause his fans to suffer, and it's not -their- fault. Melbourne in their premiership years experienced and achieved success by deliberately going out to cheat the system, working to circumvent the rules that essentially underpin the entire tournament. You want the league world to celebrate that? The Storm have received their parole - they're back in the competition. Murderers might some day get out of jail, but they aren't allowed any profit derived from their criminal activities either.
Tim Prentice
Expert
A warm welcome to The Roar, Sigi. We use stats as a factor in our predictions, but we are not always correct. I hope 'your' Doggies succeed on Sunday. Enjoy the game, Sigi.
Sigi Alumoi
Guest
Im from Misima, Papua New Guinea, and I ve been a fan since 1982. The Dogies WILL WIN this years NRL grand final. You guys know your stats well and you judge on that. Tell me if Melbourne have ever won 12 straight. If not, its the Dogies this season. They will bully the Melbournes and calm they Storms. I have faith in all the players and they will WIN in style unforgettable.
Worlds biggest
Guest
I like the Dogs and there big pack being the difference. The Storm ( Smith & Hoffman aside ) pack are workman like. While the Storm have the Big 3 and plentiful big dance experience the Dogs are a well balanced team across the park and will enjoy incredible support, half the Stadium will be blue and white. I expect the Storm to score first but the Dogs will respond quickly. The lead will change several times throughout the game. I'm predicting Sam Perret scores the winning try with 5 to go. Dogs to win 22-18. Clive Churchill medalist will be Josh Reynolds.
ceboss
Guest
"unlike the EEL’S in 2009 the bulldogs are not a one trick pony , no team makes the grand final if they are" yet the eels made the grand final in 2009 hahaha. sorry mate im just being a smarty, your right though the Dogs have many tricks they can use if need be.
Matt
Guest
The wing & centre are constantly come in, just pass or kick in behind them, it's under 7's defending and is ridiculous when it's not punished.
Andy
Guest
"we should restore Melbourne’s lost premierships." That is right what is done is done. And the end result has been a good one. So get over it.
Tim Prentice
Expert
Thumbs up from me, well said. I just wish people would move on now and enjoy a contest that may be VERY special. Don't worry about lost/stripped titles. Focus on which team is going to win this one.
Captain Obvious
Guest
Derryn, that sounds awfully like the Dragons team in 1999...
B.A Sports
And what was that blue print? Hope the coach rests his hooker and captain so that all the other players switch off and think the game is not important?
steve b
Roar Guru
unlike the EEL'S in 2009 the bulldogs are not a one trick pony , no team makes the grand final if they are ,,keep it real ,
Campaign to return Melbournes lost Premierships
Guest
Time to grow up Andy, what is done is done. Melbourne fans suffered enough for a crime they did not commit. Time to restore some pride to the NRL and to the competition. Even murderers get parole.
Matt
Guest
If Melbourne lose it'll be their own fault. Canberra provided the blueprint on how to own them.
Derryn
Guest
Unlike the Eels in 2009, the Bulldogs are not a one trick pony. They play a team game and have the most outstanding defence in the second half. Does anyone remember Manly vs Bulldogs this year at Brooky? Manly pounded the Canterbury line, the Manly fans were rabid, and still Canterbury did not let Manly score down the right. The most sustained defensive effort I have seen all year. Dogs lost to Melbourne early in the season, beat them second time around on a neutral ground. Guaranteed 65,000 behind the Dogs at their home ground. Cannot see how they will lose.
B.A Sports
You didn't watch the game between the Dogs and Souths did you...?
Matt
Guest
Ironic that the team who slows the play ball down the most also gets the most penalties when they get held down for just as long.
B.A Sports
The Bulldogs have shown all year they can weather the storm early (pardon the pun) and come home winners with the stat, which I have lost track of now, where they have given up lesss than 10 tries in the final 20 minutes of all of their games this year. That is a huge and speaks volumes to their fitness and decison making ability late in games. That late match fitness, to me, translates into late season fitness and it is why I think they will get the prize in a close match. The only concern would be the old theory of you have to lose one to win one. The Storm have the experience and the 2009 Grand Final when they stopped the Eels, all be it controversialy, when no one else could when the Eels were on the most amazing run many had sever seen, suggests they do know how to stop a run away train.
solly
Guest
That's what I am worried about!
Will Sinclair
Guest
I think the Bulldogs are as close to certainties as you can get. They will push the rules to the limit - getting off their line quickly and slowing down the rucks - and the referees will get stage fright and allow it to happen (for reference - see qualifying final v Manly). Bulldogs by 20 points.