Anytime you attempt pre-season predictions, you run the risk of ending up with egg on your face when the season is over.
And let’s be honest, Roarers are only too happy to firmly apply the egg facial moisturiser or let you know you’ve made a mistake.
So as the NRL season came to a close, and I found myself holidaying in Europe, I contemplated not coming back, as I knew it meant it was time to review my performance as a rugby league Nostradamus.
Whilst the timing of my trip wasn’t ideal, the internet, along with an abundance of Australian bars overseas, ensured I was kept up-to-date with the football finals back in Australia. And now that I’m home, with the NRL season over, it’s time to face the music and revisit my 2012 predictions:
1: The New Zealand Warriors won’t make the finals
Our readers from across the Tasman – and Bondi Beach – were up in arms about this selection. After all, the Warriors were coming off a grand final appearance, and retained roughly the same squad, despite losing coach Ivan Clearly to the Penrith Panthers.
But as I outlined in the original piece, there was some method to my apparent madness.
The NRL has a trend that I simply tapped into. Namely, the underdog grand finalist each year struggles to back-up the following season.
The Parramatta Eels in 2009. The Sydney Roosters in 2010. And now, the New Zealand Warriors in 2011. All teams went on magical runs and against the odds qualified for the grand final. However, each team subsequently lost the final, and then struggled the following year.
Combine the trend with the fact the Warriors had a new coach, and always tend to be inconsistent year-to-year, not just game-to-game, and I always felt comfortable with this prediction.
Verdict: Correct.
2: Todd Carney will have a trouble-free season
This was probably my bravest prediction, considering his past. However, I honestly believe that Todd Carney is not the devil some make him out to be.
He certainly has numerous blemishes on his record, but the vast majority, if not all, can be put down to immaturity and an inability to handle his alcohol.
On the first point, you can sense that Carney has grown up a little bit. On the second point, it was a shock that he didn’t put himself on an alcohol ban for the year, but even withstanding that, he kept his nose clean in 2012.
Here’s hoping 2013 will be the same.
Verdict: Correct.
3: The North Queensland Cowboys will make the grand final
If the referees didn’t murder them in the semi-final versus Manly, the Cowboys may just have qualified for the grand final.
However, considering they would have still have to defeat a red hot Melbourne Storm outfit, it’s difficult to give myself a tick here, even if I can make up my own rules.
I’ll take solace in the fact most pundits didn’t even have the Cowboys in the top eight, whilst maintaining my firm belief that they could have easily qualified for this year’s grand final.
Verdict: Incorrect.
4: Kurt Gidley will win the Dally M Medal
I thought Newcastle’s strong recruiting, including mastercoach Wayne Bennett, would ease the pressure on the Knights skipper, and he would respond with the best season of his career, culminating in the Dally M Medal.
Instead, Gidley battled injury early in the year and was eventually ruled out for the season.
I contemplated cheekily giving myself an ‘incomplete’ mark rather than simply being incorrect. But truth be told, in hindsight, no one was beating Ben Barba this year.
Let’s just jog along shall we?
Verdict: Incorrect.
5: The Penrith Panthers will win the wooden spoon
There are 16 teams in the NRL competition, and to therefore choose one of them to win the wooden spoon is a fairly tricky exercise. And if it wasn’t for the horrific season the Parramatta Eels put together, my selection of the Panthers would have been correct, as they finished just ahead of the Eels in 15th place.
Surely that deserves half a point?
Verdict: Incorrect.
Overall: Two out of five
Considering the Cowboys were robbed by the referees, Gidley got injured, and the Panthers nearly won the spoon, it could have been an extremely impressive round of predictions. But as it stands, I at least avoided having too much egg on my face by securing a solid two out of five correct predictions.
I’m looking forward to next season already.
Ryan McCarthy
Guest
Agree Will. Some tough decisions at the Tiges, but some good ones. I would love to see your view of team next year. Also, have you done the maths on our space under the cap? Adds up to some genuine room now. 2013 could be a long year though. Lots of talent to be developed.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
HAHA! To be fair, that was a separate article for my NRL season preview, rather than my actual pre-season predictions. But I guess you could argue it's one and the same. Still, not too bad!
GCTiger
Guest
These were your actual predictions Ryan. I'll give you a pass mark as I pretty much thought the same thing. 1st: Melbourne Storm Storm start the season as my favourites to win the competition. Correct 2nd: Wests Tigers Anything less than the premiership should be considered a failure for the Tigers. Correct 3rd: Newcastle Knights They may not win the competition this year, but they’ll go close. Big Fail 4th: North Queensland Cowboys Talent across the park. Experience. Size. Speed. Skills. Match-winners. There is a lot to like about the Cowboys, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make the final. Correct 5th: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles I’m not buying it. This is a very good football team, Geoff Toovey will be a great coach, That means they’ll have some extra motivation this year. Combine that with talent and premiership experience, and you have a potent cocktail for success. Correct 6th: Gold Coast Titans I anticipate the Gold Coast to be the big improvers for 2012. Correct but not that close 7th: Brisbane Broncos My prediction? His absence will be painfully felt early on, before the team adapts and finishes the season strongly. Big Fail 8th: St George-Illawarra Dragons And that’s exactly what I think will happen, with a new coach mid-season turning the Dragons year around, and seeing the club sneak into the top eight. Fail 9th: New Zealand Warriors The Kiwi bubble will burst in 2012. The Warriors are set for a fall in 2012. A fall all the way out of the top eight. Correct 10th: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs There is no question the Dogs have talent, but their roster is still one elite player away from being a finals team. Fail 11th: South Sydney Rabbitohs However, the link between the backs and forwards is the Rabbitohs’ most glaring weakness. Few teams win the title with a modest halves combination. Allowing Chris Sandow to leave was a curious decision. Fail 12th: Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks The Sharks biggest problem is that Carney will have to be at his dynamic best, because whilst their forward pack will provide him with plenty of go-forward, the backline is void of attacking potency. That should prove too much for the Sharks to overcome. Fail 13th: Canberra Raiders Considering it’s essentially the same playing unit, Terry Campese’s return from injury aside, and the same coach, we should probably expect the same results. Fail 14th: Parramatta Eels The Eels new halves combination of Ben Roberts and Chris Sandow has the potential to win matches. The problem is, for which side? Parramatta or the opposition? Consistency will not be a strong point of this pairing. Correct and oh so true 15th: Sydney Roosters and it’s hard to see the boys from Bondi having a successful year. Correct 16th: Penrith Panthers The wooden spoon awaits Fail but close enough.
GCTiger
Guest
It will be more feasible that Tinkler doesn't pay bennet and he walks. Sounds like history repeating for Tinkler and now he is hiding out in Singapore.
Nate dog
Guest
Dogs to miss the eight next year then and tiges to win the spoon .. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Tony Archers Maroon Underwear
Guest
Good Article Not a bad effort either, the KG call was a big one but i can see the logic. I agree totally with the warriors, They should never have been in the GF last year, no one cheered louder than Des Hasler after they snatched a victory from the tigers. 1. My preseason top 4 were 1. Manly 2. Dogs 3. Tigers 4. Cowboys.. a bare pass there but I did predict the Storm missing the 8, though that may have just been wishful thinking rather than any genuine attempt at prediction...Fail 2. A Manly Dogs GF with a Manly victory... just pass mark, not to far off. 3. Parra would get the spoon (after about round 3)...Tick 4. Jamie Lyon for Dally M...Fail 5. Another farcical origin season resulting in top players injured clubs suffering and poor quality NRL games...Tick My pre pre-season predictions for 2013 season 1. Top 4, 1. Manly 2.Dogs 3.Storm 4.Sharks ------ 14. Tigers 15. Warriors 16. Penrith 2. Manly Dogs GF 3. Barba back to back Dally M 4. Another farcical origin season resulting in top players injured clubs suffering and poor quality NRL games. 5. The biggest season of player signings and movement ever
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Need to work off all the food and drink!
apaway
Roar Guru
You're doing a lot of jogging along, Ryan. Must be the bracing European air!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
In all honestly, Mushi, I don't want to talk about the refereeing. It was utterly dreadful all year, leaves a large sour taste in my mouth, and nearly ruined what was a brilliant NRL season. It's 100% my fault for bringing it up in relation to my Cowboys prediction, and I shouldn't have mentioned it. The facts are, North Queensland lost that game, and still would have had to defeat the Melbourne Storm to qualify for the grand final. So the prediction was incorrect. Case closed, let's all jog along.
mushi
Roar Guru
Rubbish Ryan. Are you including the gift of the strip/knock on that lead to the first try? Awful odd during a robbery to give something away
Matt F
Roar Guru
I had that dream as well. Sadly reality has turned out to be a bit of a nightmare!
Matt F
Roar Guru
My prediction is that Grant will do no such thing, but you'll still be here bleating about it with a poor and illogical argument
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
First of all, 'robbed' doesn't have to allude solely to the result of the game. The Cowboys were robbed of the chance to win the game. Secondly, incorrect referee decisions impact more than just the immediate scoreline. Momentum, time, flow of the game, a team's psyche, etc, are all detrimentally impacted when mistakes are made. If these incorrect decisions were reversed, the result may have been different. In that respect, the Cowboys were robbed. Simple.
smaz
Guest
mate all i remember from this season is the horrible standard of refereeing. not a game went by without a shonky call. stopping the game for video refs is a constant. why do we have 2 refs on the field when they cant get the job done right. they need to be held accountable. how about placing refs on report, having them face a tribunal and giving the shite ones a few weeks off without pay. i also remember winning $500 on the storm to win the GF so it wasnt all bad news.
Mals
Roar Rookie
So the Cowboys should have won the game despite having scored less tries & points than Manly? Please explain.
Jimbo
Guest
Mitigating circumstances? What mitigating circumstances?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Hell no! The trend is based on a team being a massive underdog. The Bulldogs were only slight underdogs (and should have arguably been the favourites), so the trend will hopefully end next season.
Maureen J
Guest
Cowboys definitely robbed
Rocky
Guest
Does this mean you predict dogs not to make finals next year?
Will Sinclair
Guest
The only thing holding the Sharks back is the fact they're the Sharks!