Roughly a quarter of the way through the NFL 2012 Season and what do we know? Well, for a start, my August 18 Roar Superbowl Prediction – Ravens v Falcons – is very much alive and kicking.
Now let’s have serious look at the state of play.
Houston are ticking along beautifully at the moment, they are highly competent in every aspect of the game and have a champion running back in Arian Foster. They’re also a team that wins through consistent performances across the board rather than those of a couple of star players. If you had your money on them pre-season you’d be very happy now (alas I didn’t!).
Atlanta are very exciting to watch.
They have the best balanced offence in the competition with a highly skilled and confident young quarterback in Ryan who is starting to realise his potential, a franchise wide receiver (White), a potent deep threat (Jones), a hall of fame tight end (Gonzales) and a top ten running back (Turner). Ok… I might be a tad biased. Question marks remain over the depth of talent on defence though and they’ll need their best defensive personnel available to make a real run at it.
San Francisco are also travelling very well using last year’s formula of not letting Alex Smith do things beyond his skill set combined with an excellent defensive unit.
Baltimore has proven to be much more potent offensively than last season but statistically their defence is performing much worse than it ever has. For me that’s a worry.
They definitely miss Suggs and Ray Lewis isn’t having the impact that he’s had in previous seasons. I’m loathe to write off a champion like Lewis on the evidence of 4 games though, so they stay in the mix.
Don’t get too excited about Minnesota just yet, they’ve definitely improved (particularly Pounder) but they won the last game courtesy of their special teams unit (kick return and punt return TDs). That’s not a formula for long term play off success.
Philadelphia are 3 and 1 and not playing well at all.
But their defence looks more sound than last year and if they’re winning with Michael Vick in such poor form imagine how good they will be when he gets going?
If you’re one of those who believe defence wins championships put some of your hard earned on Chicago. They have the best defensive unit going round at the moment. However if you do back them you’ll be living and dying on the somewhat inconsistent arm and decision making of their quarterback for the rest of year.
And then the teams I’m definitely not writing off yet this year – New England (Brady and Bellicik and probable division winners), the Giants (an excellent squad when all are available), Green Bay (flying under the radar very nicely this year), Denver (Peyton’s still got it even if his fast ball has lost a bit of zip), Pittsburgh (Big Ben and a great defence).
Disappointments? New Orleans and the Jets. New Orleans has suffered from the Bounty Scandal fall out. And the Jets? Maybe bringing Tebow on board wasn’t the smartest move.
An intriguing season continues.
Worlds biggest
Guest
Smith is not just a game manager, he can throw the ball but Harbaugh only asks him to do a certain amount as the run game is there mantra. However we brought in Moss, Manningham and drafted Jenkins to help the passing game so keen to see this area develop. As for the Eagles, they are winning ugly but still winning. If they get it altogether they will be very tough. A lot depends on Vick staying upright and limiting the turnovers.
mushi
Roar Guru
Close games are typically a bad indicator of future success so I say pretenders
Blazza
Guest
Don't understand why who think the Eagles aren't playing well. 3-1 is still 3-1. They've beaten the defending super bowl champs, an AFC heavyweight Baltimore, a solid Browns defence and were beaten at home by a 4-0 Arizona team who beat the Pats in Foxborough the week before. They are currently the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 10 for both offence and defence and their pass D is one of the best in the entire NFL. Yes turnovers are a problem but if the fix that up like they did against the Giants this team will go far.
Jimbo
Guest
What about the Packers? They are far from certainties to take the division.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
I like the watching Baltimore and they look like they finally got that Pittsburgh monkey off their back last season. I like the look of your multi to.... very promising atm. Are you thinking about having a covering bet on the Steelers? They appear to be the only fly in your ointment.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
WB you'd have to happy with your 49ers so far. Last season definitely wasn't a one hit wonder. But you might be in for a bit of trouble if you start asking Smith to things he doesn't excel at.....
simonjzw
Roar Pro
I really don't know yet Cameron as I said... Their defence has been pretty good and they have the bloke I reckon is the the best wide receiver in the game but..... Can they sustain this form long enough or will thier bubble burst? It could go either way
Cam Larkin
Roar Guru
Should be a close and interesting game; likely to come down to a FG attempt in the final moments. ARI - contenders or pretenders?
B.A Sports
Agree Teebow brought a circus with him, but once he arrived I think they did enough to make Sanchez comfortable that he was the starter. The only difference was if he screwed up like he has in the past, there was now someone to replace him, So if he can't handle a bit of accountability then he has a problem (and i think you are being kind by listing his start as "questionable" with just one good start against an awful Buffalo D). By the way, I didn't mean to be contrarian, I did agree with your other comments, particularly around Minnesota and Baltimore, although Suggs will be back so they should improve (I hope they do, I have Packers, Texans, Pats and Ravens to win their Divisions in a substantial, by my standards, multi)
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Nice on Simon, the Texans are everyones first choice on the power rankings however let's assess them again after playing some bona fida teams. They play in a very week division which they will wrap up comfortably. Matt Schaub has never played in a playoff game so will be interesting to see how he handles that. The NFC South has become Atlanta's, Saints are gone and Panthers / Bucs will finish 7-9 or 8-8. The Falcons look very good so far however they have issues when January rolls around. My Niners responded well to beat a clueless Jets. I'd love to see Harbaugh open up the passing game more to compliment the running game. The D was nasty and hopefully the Vikings loss will be the fire that stays with them the rest of the season.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
Disappointed to hear that Cameron because I backed Arizona at $1.83 this morning! I think if you look more closely at ARI's defensive statistics for the season thus far you'll see they stack up quite well whilst STL's offence has been atrocious. Even with the away game I still think they're value this week. That said I deliberatley left them out of my analysis because I'm just not sure what to make of them just yet - are they playing above themselves or getting on a role that will carry them to the playoffs? Time will tell.....
simonjzw
Roar Pro
Good ppoint BA but it's not so much about his onfield contribution as the circus he brought to town with him and the subsequent speculation, which I'm sure will begin to mount now Sanchez has had a questionable start, about the starting QB position. The de-stabilising effects can't be good for the Jets
Tigranes
Guest
Exactly BA, Tebow hasnt been given too many opportunities. Monday morningn the Jets looked utterly clueless on attack...I suspect there will be a lot of pressure on Rex Ryan to start Tebow. Having Revis and Holmes out isnt helping the Jets cause...I dont think its going to be pretty against the Texans on Tuesday morning!
Cam Larkin
Roar Guru
I cover the NFL for SEN 1116 in Melbourne each week and last night went through the winners and losers of the week just gone. HOU, DEN, Matt Ryan and the Vikings all walked off the field with the heads held high - some very big plays which made the round very exciting. The Lions' special team was a big, big loser; the Jets were terrible and the Raiders and Seahawks let their fans down. The Cowboys stunk and despite winning, the Arizona Cardinals D unit was a loser. It has been a very interesting and mouth watering season thus far. HOU look the complete team. The Packs offense is start to wake up. The Niners dropped a game but came back strong and the Falcons are playing impressive football. This weeks round which I'll discuss on SEN - I am predicting a Cardinals loss ... their first of the season.
B.A Sports
I'm enjoying the season so far, lots of interesting story lines. I can't believe the good fortune Philli have had to this point. They may make the play-offs, but with Andy Reid at the helm, there is no way that team can win. I still don't think he realises he has arguably the best running back in the game in LeSean McCoy. Completely under used and if Philli had focused on building a better front line for he and Vick they would have a genuine championship offense. I'm not sure how you can say the Jets bringing in Tebow was not the smartest move? They haven't really used him yet, and very soon they are going to need a new QB. Sanchez has a 44% completion rate and seems to have very little leadership skiil. Even Tebow can complete 44% of his passes and he has some ground skills and now that the Jets have no recievers (with Holmes out for the year), they are going to need to run some option offence. Tebow will start week 6 unless Ryan is too big headed to make the change.