Racing welcomed the Spring Carnival with five Group Ones and some horrible weather but ‘Super Saturday’ at Randwick and ‘Carnival Preview Day’ at Flemington lived up to the hype.
Good horses make good racing, and it was again the case in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m, Group One, three-year olds) at Randwick.
The Champion isn’t the most prestigious Group One race on the calendar but you will have to travel many miles to see a better race than the one fought out by the undefeated three-year colts Proisir and It’s A Dundeel on Saturday.
2000 metres is the perfect distance for a thoroughbred horse race and it was proven on Saturday. The Spring Champion was a race of changes and tactics, of speed and stamina, and the finish was something else.
New Zealander It’s A Dundeel was tipped to finish second to Proisir because his passive racing style – where the horse is held up at the rear of the field until the final stretch – was expected to play into the hands of front-runner Proisir.
But when the Gai Waterhouse-trained Proisir sat deep and didn’t face the breeze, the race was turned on its head.
With a half-mile to go, Proisir was only a length ahead of It’s A Dundeel (perhaps four lengths further back than what many had expected) and it eventually proved the difference at the end.
At the final corner Nash Rawiller took Proisir inside It’s A Dundeel, who had charged around the field, and the Australian colt looked home when he dashed two lengths clear at the 200m mark.
But just as he has done in each of his three previous Australian starts, It’s A Dundeel became airborne inside the furlong pole, charging late to steal his fifth win from as many starts at the death.
Some punters may’ve claimed Proisir didn’t run the 2000m distance out; after all he’s bred to be a sprinter, but I think he was beaten by a slightly stronger, more superior animal. If it wasn’t for the Kiwi, Proisir would’ve been hailed a five-length victor.
Watching It’s A Dundeel on television doesn’t do him justice. On the two occasions I’ve seen him live at the track, his desire to win has been blaringly obvious. I’ve used the word ‘airborne’ a few times to describe his finish and that’s because it’s exactly what he becomes.
You can see the horse lengthen stride as the finish approaches. He really does, as the saying goes, jump out of the ground.
It’s something I’ve rarely seen. But because It’s A Dundeel does it often, he is a very special horse.
I’m not sure the High Chaparral colt will remain undefeated for long – his racing style will defeat him one day – but he is one of the more exciting prospects in Australasia.
It’s A Dundeel will travel to Melbourne for a Derby lead-up on Cox Plate Day before backing-up the following week in the 2500m classic.
His first acquaintance with Flemington may be historically significant because, with a bit of luck, It’s A Dundeel will become a common fixture in future Melbourne Cups.
Eyebrows were raised in some quarters when Waterhouse confirmed Proisir’s next run will be in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group One, weight-for-age) but I saw no reason to alter the plan after Saturday’s run.
Providing the son of Choisir begins well, he will be hard to catch with 49.5kgs on his back. In saying that, I would’ve preferred him on a Caulfield Guineas trail.
Last week, I wrote that the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group One) winner would be an Australasian-trained horse and I’m pretty confident in that prediction after Saturday.
Glencadam Gold will start favourite in Saturday week’s $2.5m handicap after a brilliant four-length victory in the Group One Metropolitan (2400m, handicap) at Randwick.
The imported galloper made it four from four in Australia and gave Waterhouse and jockey Tommy Berry a Group One double after Fat Al won the Epsom by a slender margin earlier in the day.
Glencadam Gold is going to be a big player this spring. Regardless of the weight penalty he receives on Monday, he’s going to be carrying a small impost in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and will be hard to beat in both.
The five-year old gelding strikes me a powerful stayer. When he won the Newcastle Cup a few weeks ago, he was attacked in the lead but was very strong, with 58kgs on his back, at the end.
But on Saturday, with only 53kgs, Glencadam Gold carved out a relatively quick gallop after being left alone in front. In the home straight, he produced a devastating burst of speed to clear out from his rivals. It was a completely dominant display.
I suspect he is a horse that prefers the ground to be firm so his main danger in the Cups could be Melbourne’s dubious weather.
As a horse on the on rise, Glencadam Gold could be the imported version of Might And Power.
Might And Power was the last front-running handicapper to take the Spring Carnival by storm after winning the 1997 Cups double.
If the weather proves to be no adversary for Glencadam Gold, he will be tested by the similarly-imported Seville. Seville was second to stablemate Green Moon in Saturday’s Turnbull (2000m, Group One, set weights) at Flemington.
Green Moon, who will head to the Cox Plate as a winning chance, was brilliant in victory after sitting wide on the speed but Seville’s run was eye-catching.
The former Irish galloper came down the outside and got with a neck of victory. Seville will carry only 53.5kgs in the Caulfield Cup which is a kind handicap. He is a major player.
In Seville’s 2011 European three-year old campaign, the son of Galileo was placed twice at Group One level. His second to Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris (2400m, Group One, three-year olds) was a world-class performance.
He beat the third-placed Reliable Man by three lengths on that occasion and Reliable Man was a close-up fourth in July’s vintage King George And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2400m, Group One, weight-for-age) at Ascot.
December Draw finished third on Saturday and while he’ll be highly fancied in the Caulfield Cup, I’m unconvinced about his ability to run a strong 2400m.
Voila Ici didn’t seem interested in racing on Saturday – he required some encouragement from trainer Peter Moody to make his way to the start – but was strong in fourth. I’m still very keen on his Caulfield chances.
Voila Ici may get a soft run behind Glencadam Gold and could be hard to hold out in the straight. 2400m is right down his alley.
The top four horses in the Turnbull are all imported European gallopers and are high quality stayers.
The imports may not be the best thing for the long-term health of Australian racing but they have added plenty of strength to our staying ranks and without them, the Turnbull would’ve been a poor form reference.
The best of the beaten (or, in other words, Aussie) horses was Ethiopia. The Australian Derby (2400m, Group One, three-year olds) winner was flying late to grab sixth and will press on to the Cox Plate.
I don’t think he can win the championship but if Pat Carey presses on to the Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group One, handicap), I’d have to concede Ethiopia a winning chance. He’s a promising stayer.
There were a couple of disturbing runs in the Turnbull. I was keen on Southern Speed for the Caulfield Cup but she was dreadful in 15th. Jockey Glen Boss said the mare felt lame after the race but veterinary tests have failed to pinpoint any issue post-race.
I was also upbeat about Moudre’s Cup chances before Saturday but he too was horrible in last. Moudre pulled-up with a sore shoulder so perhaps his run can be forgiven but like Southern Speed, there is a massive cloud hanging over his campaign.
A special mention should go to Team Williams who prepared the Turnbull quinella of Green Moon and Seville. In a remarkable effort, the other three horses they sent to the races won on Saturday.
Mourayan was strong in the Group Three weight-for-age Craven (2000m) and appears on track for the Melbourne Cup. He will get appear next in the Mackinnon (2000m, Group One, weight-for-age) on Derby Day.
Tanby will head to the Geelong Cup (2400m, Group Three, handicap) after his victory over 2010 Melbourne Cup runner-up Maluckyday in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m, handicap).
And the winner of the last at Flemington (1400m, Listed, handicap) Fawkner, is on-track for the Emirates (1600m, Group One, handicap) on the last day of the Carnival.
Fawkner created history on Saturday. He was the third metropolitan winner for mother Dane Belltar on the day.
The 2003 VRC Oaks (2500m, Group One, three-year fillies) runner-up has only had three of her progeny reach the racetrack but they were all victorious on Saturday (the other two winners were in Adelaide and Brisbane).
I’m unsure if that feat has occurred previously in the 200-year history of Australian racing but it’s an incredible performance all the same.
lozza
Guest
Justin - first of all great read! I believe this Caulfield Cup it is one of rare quality - i really cant remember a field looking quite as mouth watering as this one - it's probably the strongest field in about a decade or more - i just havent been as excited for a Caulfield Cup in ages! You make mention of past Metrop/CC winners - Tawqeet - certainly he beat a very handy field including a certain couple of Japanaese horses, Railings i dont think beat too much - he started at a much healthier price (than current odds on GG) also - around 8-1 carrying around 52.5/53kgs.. Looking at this field we have many top liners who could make light of their weights - Viewed in '09 proved that you can carry weight as did Northerly in around '02, Sky Heights effort in '01 also springs to mind so i wouldnt be discounting the likes of Dunaden/Americain. I really dont think that either would cop too much of a re-handicap for the Big one either should they salute. Seville looks the one for mine - young Nicholas Hall had a lap ful of horse and if not for being held up behind a wall of horses would be the current race favourite! Lloyd and Nick look set to have a major say in all the big features this spring dont they? They seem to have aimed certain horses for certain goals without putting all their eggs in one basket- until we get to the first Tuesday in Nov!. With that in mind i happy to jump on Seville Sat week - happy to take the 8/9 dollars on offer. Southern Speed - sure she put in a shocker - we can all forgive one bad run! Voila Ici if he comes in with his mind on the job should be able to apply plenty of pressure to GG. December Draw is to be respected too - i wont be on him but neither could i discard him.... It is for that reason i will be approaching GG with a degree of caution, not saying he cant do it, just not confident against such a deep deep, quality field!
Bondy.
Guest
Just in evaluating the Mlb Cup what should also be taken into consideration that the winner of the Geelong cup i'm assuming it will be British will probably then start equal fav at about $6.50 or $5.50,thats generally been the benchmark race for the cup for the past 4-5 years now.
Justin Cinque
Expert
My apologies re Americain captain. I thought Dunaden has really blossomed in the last 12 months. He's a very talented stayer. I'll be watching him closely at Caulfield because he's up to winning another Cup. I'm not as keen on Red Cadeaux. I think Dunaden has improved while RC may've stagnated. In the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot RC had Dunaden cold after Dunaden encountered heavy traffic thanks to a shocking ride by Lemaire and Dunaden was still able to beat him comfortably. Then Red Cadeaux went to Newmarket and was again disappointing. But his run behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation at the start of the season, was meritorius I thought. For mine, RC probably needs to find two or three lengths on his recent form to win a MC...but we'll see. There's no doubt Glencadam GOld's Euro form isn't very good for a G1 horse but racing's funny like that. The internationals that have won majors in the spring haven't been top notch stayers before winning in Melbourne. It's been in the months afterwoods that they've improved. And GG is on the up. He continues to tick every box. For that reason (internationals winning majors on the up), a horse like Gatewood, who runs on Saturday in the Herbert Power is one who I think can win something big this spring. He's on the up, low-weighted and young. I agree about Seville - for mine, he runs a place at Caulfield. Luck in running will determine what colour his medal is. Jakallberry I'm not sure about. He was flat in the Hardwicke. Gapped in Dubai albeit okay. Then he won the St Leger against not much. He's a ? for me. I'm not saying 'no' but his Voila Ici, Sneak A Peak form looks good, doesn't it? Perhaps the 3200 of the Melbourne Cup will be his go.
Captain Sensible
Guest
I wasn't talking about Americain I was talking about Dunaden, Red Cadeaux and Jackalberry. You can add Seville as well, who was a fantastic 2nd in the Turnbull Stks when getting out to a suitable distance 3rd up. The Turnbull always proves a far superior form race than the Metropolitan. Seville boasts 3 Euro Grp1 2nds to horses like Meandre (triple Euro 2400m Grp1 winner & narrow 2nd to recent unlucky Arc runner up Orfevre 2 starts ago) and Treasure Beach (who is a Grp1 winner of the Irish Derby & Secretariat Stks in USA as well as being runner up to Pour Moi in the Grp1 English Derby & last start runner up of a Grp1 in the USA). Seville also boasts a Grp2 2nd to Carlton House (who ran 2l 2nd to So You Think in the Grp1 Prince of Wales Stks and was 3rd in that English Derby to Pour Moi) and a Grp2 3rd to Sea Moon (who beat both Dunaden & Red Cadeaux in June and was 2nd in the Grp1 Breeders Cup Turf last Nov), Those horses have far superior form than Glencadam Gold. In Europe Glencadam Gold started once in a Group race (a Grp2) and was beaten 52 lengths into 9th by Nathaniel. Look at the class of horse Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Jakkalberry & Seville have been competitive with and then look at the class of horse Glencadam Gold has been beating. I can assure you the likes of Danedream, Sea Moon, St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel would be trouncing the likes of Kelinni, Reuben Percival, Stout Hearted giving them 20 - 25 pounds. They are rated superior to or equal to More Joyous by Timeform and they all excel at 2400m. There's simply no doubt they are the world's best staying formlines. All the form ties in beautifully through Dunaden & Red Cadeaux, who quinella'd both the Melbourne Cup and the Hong Kong Vase last spring. Dunaden meets Red Cadeaux worse at the weights this year and will meet him even worse should he win the Caulfield Cup on the way to the Melbourne Cup. Dunaden, Jackalberry & Seville will be the hardest to beat in the Caulfield Cup & Red Cadeaux is an each way special in the Melbourne Cup at 20/1. Thankfully the market has it totally wrong (in my opinion) with regards to Glencadam Gold being favourite but that's the beauty of horseracing and the punt....So many varying opinions. Good luck !!
Justin Cinque
Expert
It's actually 2-2 since the mid 90s. But the Metrop has produced a Cox Plate winner (Saintly). And an international first-up or otherwise has NEVER won the Cox Plate.
Justin Cinque
Expert
That's all well and good captain but since the mid 90s Metrop runners are 3-2 up in Caulfield Cup victories over first-up internationals. And Glencadam Gold was the most impressive Metrop winner I've seen. He keeps stepping up. He's on the rise. As for Dunaden and Americain, well I'm confident GG will beat them home in the Caulfield Cup. They both have their big weights to contend with and Americain is still to prove that he's back to his best after a disappointing winless autumn (and sixth of seven in the Kergolay). Dunaden has hoof issues. Around Caulfield, I'm happy to be with the race fitness of the locals. If an international is to the win the Caulfield Cup, they will be running on Saturday in the Herbert Power.
Captain Sensible
Guest
The Metropolitan is generally a weak affair and it was again this year. The Turnbull Stks is a much stronger form race. Since 1999 winners of the Metrop have won a combined additional 4 Grp1 races between them in their entire careers - 2 Caul Cups, Sydney Cup & AJC Oaks. In the same period winners of the Turnbull Stks have won a combined additional 45 Grp1 races between them incl 5 Cox Plates, 4 Melb Cups, 4 Aust Cups, 3 Vic Derby's, 3 Underwood Stks, 2 AJC Derby's, 2 BMW's, 2 Doncaster's etc etc etc That race was simply handed to Glencadam Gold by the other jockeys. Glencadam Gold went some 30 lengths slower than Mourayan did for the first 1400m of their respective races. The fact Glencadam Gold could run a half sec faster last 600m than the 1200m Premier Stks field proves my point. Glencadam Gold has beaten the likes of Kelinni, Reubin Percival, Stout Hearted, Peal of Bells, Gazza Guru & Saint Encosta at his last 2 starts. He won a Listed race & a 1MW race prior to that. Now look at some of the opposition he will face in the Cups. Dunaden (Caul/Melb Cup) & Red Cadeaux (Melb Cup). Glencadam Gold will only be getting around 4kg's off Dunaden, a multiple international Grp1 winner of races such as the Hong Kong Vase and Melbourne Cup. Dunaden got within 3l of 2011 Arc winner Danedream in England's best 2400m race the Grp1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stks at his latest run. 2nd & 3rd in that race were Nathaniel & St Nicholas Abbey. Frankel & Black Caviar aside those horses are the top rated horses in the world. Red Cadeaux has been racing against the same opposition & finishing narrowly behind Dunaden at level weights yet will carry only 55.5kg's (GG has 53.5kgs) in the Melb Cup. He has also had close up 2nd's to Sea Moon & St Nicholas Abbey. Jakkalberry, who also has 55.5kg's, ran 3rd to Cirrus Des Aigles & St Nicholas Abbey in the Grp1 Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night. Those 3 horses have vastly superior form and are 2 - 4 times the price of Glencadam Gold. Glencadam Gold, who was formerly trained by Sir Henry Cecil (Frankel), had inferior European form to many of the horses he will face in both Cups. Has Gai Waterhouse improved him ? Well I heard leviathan owner and punter Lloyd Williams make a great point about that. He said he used to speak with legendary trainer TJ Smith daily and often asked would it be worth buying some of Cecil's cast offs to send to TJ Smith to improve. He said he received the same answer numerous times from TJ....."nobody improves Henry Cecil's horses" . I'll be laying Glencadam Gold till my nose bleeds at the massive unders he currently is.
nan
Guest
You make other racing writers sound boring Justin-you have a great way of putting us there ive been a big fan since reading your article about Hay list being a champion in any other era, Well Done Son you should be on sky channel or tvsn. Now im different to the other opinions i think Glencadom Gold is weighted to win both cups and has stepped up each time and he has the class look what he did to last years winner(no Class). I believe he has been perfectly placed along the way to gain entry and then go BANG . I know who is hurting at missing the rides and Tommy Berry is going to be a champion. Dont be harsh on Gai either Guys Racing needs confidence and she oozes plenty of it. I saw her at cox plate day when SYT won first and thought i would go say hi thinking she would flog me off as a nut case- But no she talked racing for 10 Minutes with me and she was a delight i also got a message from her that the cox plate is the race she dearly would love to win in Australia now she has 3 great chances and for me i hope she salutes she will be a legend as she is outdoing her father at the same time.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Alfred the Metropolitan is a funny race. For most of my formative years, it was a race that older people spoke of highly in retrospect because of it's great honour roll but for much of my life it wasn't much of a race. What I've learnt is that it can throw up a good horse and I think Glencadam Gold is one of those. In 1996, Saintly was third in the Metrop and won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. And in 2005 & 2006 Railings and Tawqeet won the Metrop before taking the Caulfield Cup. As for Glencadam Gold getting an easy time - I suppose Berry was able to control the race and that was always going to make him hard to beat. His previous two wins were strong performances where Rawiller was ultra aggressive on the horse and we learnt that he is quite strong. There's a bit of depth to this bloke. I'll watch him closely at Caulfield and then make an assessment for the Melbourne Cup.
Justin Cinque
Expert
"I had the good fortune to be sitting next to the owners of It’s a Dundeel – of which there seemed to be dozens – and they were absolutely overjoyed when their boy saluted." Fantastic stuff Will! The emotion of Group One racing is pretty special, isn't it? My article got edited so it didn't say it but Proisir's chances were badly hurt when he missed the start. It basically put Nash in the wrong spot. From there, It's A Dundeel was always going to be hard to beat. I've heard people criticise Rawiller after the race but as one of the silly people who took the shorts on Proisir I don't think he rode that bad. The horse was two clear at the 200 and got beat by a very special animal. As for the Cox Plate, he'll have no weight, should be on the pace and will whack away. I think he'll run fourth or fifth.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Thanks sheek, very flattered. Your point about Gai Waterhouse entered my mind when writing about Glencadam Gold. I'm bullish about his Caulfield Cup chances - he'll be suited by the joint. After that we can re-assess. I'm not certain two miles is his go but everytime they step up Glencadam Gold he makes the jump. He's very exciting.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Great read as always Justin. Like others here I'm not convinced Glencadem Gold can win the Cups double let alone one of them. He had an easy run and the competition was a bit too soft for my liking. That said, he probably deserves favoritism. In the past, the Metrop hasn't been the best form indicator. The Verminator won the Metrop pretty easily last year and struggled in the Cups against classier horses. The Spring Champion was probably the race of the weekend. I agree that It's a Dundeel should head to the Cox Plate rather than the Derby after that run, and I'm expecting Murray Baker to make a late entry. After Green Moon's run in the Turnbull, I think he'll be the major threat to Pierro in the Cox Plate. I don't know what to make of the Caulfield Cup. Runs on the weekend were too inconsistent against runs over the past month. The weather had a lot to do with that though.
Bondy.
Guest
Will, I agree Nash's tactics were poor on Proisir and I didnt take the threes on either.
Scuba
Guest
sheek, just a word of warning on Seville, there looks to be a real risk that Lloyd won't send him to the Melbourne Cup... http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/team-williams/tabid/83/newsid/10115/default.aspx Wouldn't be a first for them to be playing ducks and drakes though!
Will Sinclair
Guest
I'll be happy to lay Glencadam Gold in both Cups. The other jockeys may as well have gift wrapped a G1 for Tommy Berry - complete with a colourful paper and a big red bow - in the Metrop. It was honestly over as a contest three or four furlongs from home when Glencadam was jogging out in front. He won't get those sorts of favours in the Caulfield or Melbourne Cups, and I doubt he can win either. The Spring Champion was a modern day classic! I had the good fortune to be sitting next to the owners of It's a Dundeel - of which there seemed to be dozens - and they were absolutely overjoyed when their boy saluted. What a race! But you'd have to say Nash (who had a sorry day) got his tactics badly wrong on the favourite. Why he wasn't further ahead of Dundeel at the turn I'll never know. Seems strange to think they might take Proisir to the Cox Plate from there. I think he clearly didn't stay the 2000m, and there is nothing like a Cox Plate to find out those horses that aren't strong at the end of the distance. Another lay there I think.
noel mckenna
Guest
Glencadam Gold is a horse who is no doubt good , but when it produces a faster last 600m than the last 600m in the 1200m Premiere stakes it is obvious it was gifted the Metropolitan. What A BORING RACE TO WATCH ONE OF Gai's horses up front taking it easy letting go up the straight , you knew it was going to win after 1000m. Questions should be asked about the other jockeys, why do they not use their initiative ?Rueben Percival hardly a group one horse had a easy run up front with the winner and only went down by 3 lengths.Gai has some good nags but her extreme over confidence is boring, did she not say Proisir would win the Champion stakes ? when it does not she comes up with excuses, never says a better horse beat her horse.
sheek
Roar Guru
Justin, From an aesthetic point of view, this is one of your finest pieces. You have a wonderful turn of phrase & use of imagery, & your deep & passionate love of horse racing, & knowledge, is evident. Your description of the Champion Stakes finish is poetry in motion, literally. For me, your spring racing articles are a must read. Tristan, pay this man more money for his articles!!! Justin, I'm willing to bet against Glencadam Gold in the big races in Melbourne. Like her father, Gai Waterhouse can be guilty of over-training her horses. Tommy's poor record in the Melbourne Cup (with many outstanding horses) is evident of this. By the time his horses hit the big one, they were often plum tuckered out. Anyway, having said this I've probably just ensured Glencadam Gold will everything in site! I'm no punting expert, but something deep inside me is saying Seville for the big one. Whether I will still feel the same way in just under another month from now remains to be seen.....
Bondy.
Guest
Waterhouse has evaluated that the W.F.A. ranks are weak and appears convinced her two three year ols will quinella the plate ,Wrong. I would be extremely cautious in the cox plate this season something such as a Fields of Omagh or El segundo may jump out of the ground and win the race possibly a shoot out type horse a 5-8 yr old gelding wouldnt suprise. I backed Southern Speed on the weekend if she comes out and wins the Caulf Cup i'll be the first to boo.I dont understand why they wouldnt run its a dundeel in the cox plate and make that he's GF for the season. I think Norzita's got a mile and half written all over here,that'll be Barts 900th oaks win, Lol. If a punter lost on the weekend it would have to be seen as intentional not bad luck. Good read Justin.