The barrier draw for the Caulfield Cup, completed this morning, has thrown a spanner in the works for early form punter and has caused a significant shuffle in betting.
Already it was looking one of the strongest Cups in recent years, with handicapper Greg Carpenter drawing comparisons with the Caulfield Cups of 1980 (Ming Dynasty defeated Hyperno and Kingston Town), 2002 (Northerly beat Fields Of Omagh) and 2004 (Elvstroem held on from Makybe Diva).
The barrier draw, however, means the race is not only strong, but it is incredibly perplexing. It is a race which will require thorough analysis before any selections can be made.
Before the draw, pundits were expecting Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici to head forward and set up the pace.
Both horses have drawn wide – Voila Ici in 17, Glencadam Gold in 21 – meaning there is likely to be a charge early to ensure they can get across.
There is not a lot of pace drawn underneath them, with My Quest For Peace (barrier 2) likely to go forward with December Draw (barrier 12). Southern Speed (barrier 14), Lights of Heaven (barrier 8) and even Jakkalberry (barrier 13) have the ability to go forward as well.
This means Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici should get across fairly easily. However, the extra work they have to do in the first 200m is never ideal.
2011 Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden, who was the subject of much support over the last 48 hours, has drawn the outside barrier. Jockey Craig Williams will be forced to either go forward, hoping he can slot in, or go back and risk getting too far out of his ground.
At his last run, Williams sent Dunaden to the lead and he struggled. That means he is likely to go back here, which will mean he faces an enormous task to circle the field with 58kg.
2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain is in a similar position, drawing barrier 19. Gerald Mosse has been the subject of criticism for some of his previous rides on Americain, including in The BMW where he kept the horse three deep the trip. He may be in a similar position on Saturday.
Drawing wide is not the only concern. The connections of Zabeelionaire are likely to be disappointed after the South Australian Derby winner drew the inside.
Traditionally, the inside is not the place to be in a Caulfield Cup, particularly as a backmarker. Zabeelionaire is likely to end up in an awkward position from barrier 1, meaning he may have to go forward – against his regular pattern – or risk being shuffled back through the field at a crucial stage.
The post-draw market with TAB Sportsbet has Glencadam Gold holding favouritism at $4.20 ahead of Dunaden and December Draw at $7.50. Second emergency Gatewood ($10) and Lights of Heaven ($11) are next best.
Caulfield Cup (2,400m) – Saturday, 4.05pm (AEDT)
6x6x – AMERICAIN (19)
326x – DUNADEN (22)
x51x – JAKKALBERRY (13)
3×99 – WINCHESTER (16)
x833 – DECEMBER DRAW (12)
x624 – VOILA ICI (17)
1140 – SOUTHERN SPEED (14)
x006 – SANAGAS (3)
1111 – GLENCADAM GOLD (21)
4011 – MY QUEST FOR PEACE (2)
x008 – NIWOT (6)
x093 – LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (8)
2235 – SECRET ADMIRER (11)
x857 – SNEAK A PEEK (10)
8972 – ALCOPOP (9)
9×30 – MOUDRE (5)
x001 – FOLDING GEAR (4)
x970 – ZABEELIONAIRE (1)
0655 – SABRAGE (1ST EM) (20)
1327 – GATEWOOD (2ND EM) (18)
42×7 – IBICENCO (3RD EM) (15)
x920 – FICTIONAL ACCOUNT (4TH EM) (7)
Hallsy
Guest
Fo what it;s worth, I've been recording results for years based on number of starters (after scratchings) and for an 18 horse field, the best numbers relative to their position are 5,6,8,12,13,15,16 and17. Considering barriers, this looks good for Lights of Heaven, Alcopop and Folding Gear.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
I reckon take everything 15 to 1 or greater in a first 4. 5% of the first 4 should net you a few grand if it comes off and would probably only cost 50 to lay it
Mantis
Roar Guru
I like my quest for peace too
Richard
Guest
I've heard he may be scratched if track too hard
mp
Guest
is amercain in with a chance?
Phil
Guest
My Quest For Peace will get the best run and may out stay them,he will put the pressure on from the 800 which will give Dunaden the best chance of coming over the top....there's your quinella field for third.
Richard
Guest
Heard racing writer Tony Bourke on the radio. He said he has been watching the internationals most mornings at Werribee. Jakkalbery has been the most impressive he reckons. He got on each way at 21 to 1. He expects he will be closer to 12-15 by the time they jump. Don't know if it is a let it ride, but he is a fairly astute observer.
John
Guest
My Quest For Peace will win with December Draw closely behind. After the draw I smacked the import into doubles with Green Moon for the cox plate. Christmas is coming early this year.
Mumbles
Guest
Gatewood just needs to start ...Bookies have obviously done the barrier draw !!!
Shaun
Guest
December Draw would be my choice, though I don't think I'll be betting on the Caulfield Cup this year--it has 'upset' written over it in gold.
sheek
Roar Guru
Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike. Sorry, that's the best I can do tonight..... ;-)
Bondy.
Guest
Cpt, I agree with most of that, I think the speed is difficult to asses i'd almost be laying viola ici if that continues to go forward, jakkalbbary is a concern for punters and southern speed running around will be interesting as well.
Mike
Guest
Craig Williams will do his best , he deserves the win as he is the only honest jockey out there .
Captain Sensible
Guest
Whilst the draw is obviously not favourable Dunaden is the class horse of the field. Williams has no option but to scoot straight across to the fence or 1 off towards the tail. Just like Brad Rawiller with Viewed when he won the Caulfield Cup after winning the Melbourne Cup the year before Craig Williams will need to ride Dunaden for luck and hope he gets it. I'm hoping the field fans down the side and on the turn and Williams takes all the inside runs. He's the right jockey for the job. If he gets the same luck as Brad Rawiller on Viewed he simply wins. December Draw, Secret Admirer & Jakkalberry are the dangers imo. Glencadam Gold is the lay of the spring.
jrome
Guest
Folding gear will storm home in end comfortably...winchester is another good horse from the states who loves to chase very strongly too...they're the ones to watch out for
Graham
Guest
The dark horse................folding gear
Richard
Guest
I'm a big fan of roughies. Winchester or Secret Admirer got any chance? As to the latter, I don't think this horse has ever run over 2400?
hurky
Guest
alcopop is in it up to its nose - has an excellent chance. many of the hot picks have drawn out so there will be many chances now and the pattern of the race is thrown in the air.
Alex
Guest
I believe Sneak a Peek could be a good chance to place. Been drawn in Barrier 10.
Bondy.
Guest
Glencadam gold cannot win, he will push forward and pull he's head off.