Saturday’s Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group One, handicap, 4:05pm AEDT) is the first of four majors on the Australian racing calendar.
The 2012 renewal has brought together a high quality line-up from Australia and Europe.
The $2.5m Caulfield feature not only combines with the Cox Plate (2040m, Group One, weight-for-age), Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group One, handicap) and Golden Slipper (1200m, Group One, two-year olds) to form the Grand Slam of Australian horse racing, but is perhaps the most proven pointer to Flemington success.
1. Americain (Barrier 19, Weight 58kgs, Trainer: Alain de Royer Dupre, Country: France, Odds $18)
For: Americain is proven in Victoria. He boasts victories in the Melbourne Cup (2010), Zipping Classic (2011), Moonee Valley Cup (2011) and Geelong Cup (2010). He was fantastic when fourth with 58kgs in his Flemington defence last season and was closing in third place in this year’s Australian Cup. Demands respect.
Against: Americain’s 2012 form is a little uninspiring. He hasn’t won this year and was sent packing from David Hayes’ stables after a winless autumn campaign. Back in the care of de Royer Dupre in France, he was sixth of seven in the Kergolay in August – a race he won on the way to his 2010 Cup success. Flemington is his grand final. Now eight, are his best days over?
2. Dunaden (22, 58kgs, Mikel Delzangles, France, $8)
For: The defending Melbourne Cup winner is yet to peak. He followed Flemington success with a good win in the internationally-billed Hong Kong Cup in December. Took two runs to get going this season but was fantastic when second in a good Hardwicke on Black Caviar Day at Royal Ascot. Was then a strong sixth, when ridden too close, in a classic King George. He is world class.
Against: Upon arrival in Australia Dunaden suffered a hoof problem that threatened to rule him out of this race. On Monday, trainer Delzangles told the media that Dunaden is a week behind where he should be. As soon as I heard that, I didn’t want a bar of this bloke. From the gate, with 58kgs and at 2400m, he is going to need a stack of luck. I’ll take him on.
3. Jakkalberry (13, 55.5kgs, Marco Botti, Italy, $19)
For: Jakkalberry will be the first Euro home in my view. He was pretty average behind Dunaden in the Hardwicke. But that run was sandwiched by a super third in a great Sheema Classic in Dubai and a dominant victory in the US St Leger. He’s a proven traveller and has settled in well. I wasn’t sure at first but I think 2400m is his go.
Against: I don’t think Jakkalberry’s well weighted. Meets Voila Ici (who was third) 2.5kgs worse than when second in 2011 Milan meeting that was won by Sneak A Peek (also engaged here). And in this race, he gives away Caulfield experience and race fitness to Voila Ici and Sneak A Peek. I think Jakkalberry will finish in the top eight.
4. Winchester (16, 55.5kgs, John Sadler, Australia, Imported? Yes, $31)
For: Multiple Group One winner over this distance in the US. Since being imported from the States, he’s raced twice in Australia (ninth both times) and scored pass marks on each occasion. The step-up from 2000m to 2400m suits.
Against: I’m not sure he’s ready to win. Came from the back to be five lengths away last time in the Turnbull and the wide gate ensures he gives away a start again. Not overly keen on his chances but he should finish in the top half. Winchester will be running on late and maybe a horse to follow for Flemington.
5. December Draw (12, 55.5kgs, Mark Kavanagh, Australia, Imported? Yes, $7.5)
For: Warming to this bloke. I think he’ll be in the finish. Was favourite last year after winning the Turnbull but sustained a serious leg injury here. Has improved in three runs since lay-off this spring and was good again in the Turnbull, when third, carrying 3kgs more than last year. Against those he met last time, he is well handicapped. Yet to hit peak.
Against: I took him on last year because I wasn’t sure he’d run a strong 2400m at his first attempt. Hasn’t been to the trip since but is stronger and more seasoned now. The distance is still his biggest issue but he’s otherwise bombproof. This is grand final day. Can win.
6. Voila Ici (17, 55kgs, Peter Moody, Australia, Imported? Yes, $17)
For: Hasn’t disappointed in three Aussie starts since flying to Australia with Black Caviar in July. Gets to 2400m and will relish it. His biggest win in the 2011 Gran Premio Di Milano came at this trip. Caulfield is now his home track and he’s performed well in both runs at the venue. Will race near to the lead.
Against: Before his last race in the Turnbull, he didn’t want to go to the start. Any antics on Saturday almost make the task impossible for this Italian stallion because majors aren’t won unless everything goes right. Meets December Draw 2kgs worse after finishing alongside him at Flemington two weeks back. His wide barrier draw isn’t ideal either. Top five for sure.
7. Southern Speed (14, 54.5kgs, Leon Macdonald, Australia, Imported? No, $21)
For: The reigning champion attempts her defence after the worst finish in her career (15th) but she was in fantastic form prior. Jockey Glen Boss said she felt lame after the Turnbull (vet tests found no issue) so perhaps we can forgive her run on firm ground. Has big-race experience.
Against: The wide alley could rule out a repeat of last year when she enjoyed all the favours. I’ve gone cold on her. She’s not a natural stayer so the distance, if things don’t go her way, is a bit of a query for me. Only two weeks ago, I predicted her as the winner of this race but I want to take it back. Take on trust.
8. Sanagas (3, 54kgs, Bart Cummings, Australia, Imported? Yes, $61)
For: Bart trains him. Brought to the US from Europe and last year progressed to Group One success in same race Unusual Suspect (sixth Caulfield Cup 2011) won in 2010.
Against: Four starts in 2012 have been woeful. Was horrible last week when tailed off in the Caulfield Stakes. If the bookies were fair dinkum, they’d have him at 600/1.
9. Glencadam Gold (21, 53.5kgs, Gai Waterhouse, Australia, Imported? Yes, $4.6)
For: Undefeated in four Australian starts after coming from the UK and has improved on each occasion. There’s a bit of depth to this horse – he can make multiple efforts in a race and can accelerate off a slow tempo. He’s an exciting type. Can win.
Against: The barrier. He’s drawn in the marquee! Will push forward and use petrol. If he can somehow get across without burning too much energy, Glencadam Gold is going to be mighty hard to beat. This is his toughest assignment to date. Shades of 1997 winner Might And Power with this horse. In (jockey) Jim Cassidy we trust.
10. My Quest For Peace (2, 53.5kgs, Luca Cumani, England, $12)
For: Comes to Australia in winning form after claiming the Glorious and March Stakes in the English summer, both at Goodwood and in much lesser grade than this. Did beat Gatewood (second emergency here with plenty of admirers) in the Glorious. Will go forward and is drawn to have sweet run. Firm ground suits.
Against: I don’t like the chances of My Quest For Peace. He was poor against Dunaden and Jakkalberry in his stiffest test in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. Then he had all the favours in the Glorious when he got the softest lead to win over 2400m in 2:42 (pedestrian time) on good ground. Apart from maiden victory, he’s only ever beaten small fields. Big handicaps (like a Caulfield Cup) are a different kettle of fish to what he likes. Not for me but respect Cumani.
11. Niwot (6, 53.5kgs, Team Hawkes, Australia, Imported? No, $31)
For: From the same stable as last week’s Caulfield Guineas winner All Too Hard and they say he’s never gone better. Niwot will be strong at the distance.
Against: You have to respect a bullish Hawkes camp but I’m not so sure he’s travelling better than the autumn when he was close-up at weight-for-age on numerous occasions. I think he needs rain (and lots of it) to be competitive in a Caulfield Cup. If he runs top six, watch out for Flemington where two miles is more his go.
12. Lights Of Heaven (8, 53kg, Peter Moody, Australia, Imported? No, $12)
For: Quality mare, proven at the distance, racing at her home track and prepared by a hungry Moody stable that is chasing its maiden major. Thought she put the writing on the wall in the Hill Stakes at Randwick a month ago. Tends to hold form.
Against: She hasn’t raced for four weeks and that’s usually a negative with an Aussie conditioner in command but Moody thinks she goes better fresh so perhaps this isn’t ‘against’ her. Don’t worry about her first two runs this preparation – she wasn’t ‘wound up’ fresh and had respiratory issues second-up. In the mix.
13. Secret Admirer (11, 53kg, Grahame Begg, Australia, Imported? No, $26)
For: Was superb in the Epsom at Randwick when only one of a few to make ground from midfield. High-class, multiple Group One-winning mare. Favourably handicapped.
Against: The distance obviously. She’s never come across as a stayer to me (or anyone I guess) but she lands at 2400m for the first time in the Caulfield Cup with all her best form over a mile. In my opinion, she can only win if it rains but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her finish top six. The query runner.
14. Sneak A Peek (10, 53kg, Peter Moody, Australia, Imported? Yes, $17)
For: After his second-up performance in the Dato Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley, he loomed as a big Caulfield Cup player but his next run in the Turnbull was just okay. He boasts a win over key chances Jakkalberry and Voila Ici and still hasn’t reached his career peak.
Against: Off his last start, I’d say he needs to find a few lengths. Perhaps, like many, he didn’t enjoy the firm surface. If that’s the case, and his run can be forgiven, he’s pretty hard to knock. The dark horse?
15. Alcopop (9, 52.5kgs, Jake Stephens, Australia, Imported? No, $15)
For: Comes off a super Cup trial in last week’s weight-for-age Caulfield Stakes. Strangely, the three best runs of his career have come on Caulfield Guineas Day. If Alcopop repeats last week’s performance, he can win. He’s beautifully-suited at handicap conditions. A real smoky.
Against: Alcopop has more convictions than a hardened criminal. He was a big player in this race in 2010 after a similarly good run in the Caulfield Stakes but couldn’t repeat the effort on the seven-day back-up. Almost every decent run he’s had has followed a break of more than 14 days between runs. I’m prepared to risk him.
16. Moudre (5, 52.5kgs, Ciaron Maher, Australia, Imported? No, $51)
For: Easily the best roughie in the race. If you’re playing trifectas don’t leave him out. He was very good in the Makybe Diva first-up and then had shoulder issues in the Turnbull last time. If you can forgive his recent effort, then he’s a 50/1 shot with a real chance. He’s well-weighted, going to appreciate the trip and will enjoy a nice run from the draw. A proven stayer.
Against: Moudre comes off a last-place finish in the Turnbull when he pulled-up worse-for-wear. The track was pretty hard that day and the Turnbull included a few quizzical runs. If you can put a pen through his last start, you’d have to agree that he can win.
17. Folding Gear (4, 52kgs, Lee and Shannon Hope, Australia, Imported? No, $21)
For: Comes into the Caulfield Cup on a month’s break but after a good win in the Naturalism at this venue. This is his stiffest test but he’s drawn to get a good run and is improving.
Against: For mine it has to be the distance. It’s his first look at it, in the toughest 2400m race in the country. But the draw ensures he gets a nice run. Hard to knock this bloke. Genuine 20/1 chance in a tricky race to analyse. Sneaks into my top eight.
18. Zabeelionaire (1, 52kgs, Leon Corstens, Australia, Imported? No, $31)
For: Zabeelionaire’s a real 2400m horse and he’s going to get a nice run. I like the barrier too. He will need luck in running but, in recent years, so many Caulfield Cups winners coming from behind have used the inside parts of the track (Viewed 2009, Tawqeet 2006 and Diatribe 2000 come to mind). He’ll be running on too.
Against: Zabeelionaire also comes off a poor run in the Turnbull. If you can forgive the performance, his form was very encouraging prior. I suppose you have to question whether he’s good enough to win a Caulfield Cup. In any case, he’s a place chance. I don’t mind him.
19. Sabrage – Emergency 1 (20, 51kgs, Michael Moroney, Australia, Imported? No, $101)
For: His best form is around this distance and in the left-handed direction which he faces here. But he’s a genuine roughie.
Against: Sabrage needs a scratching to get a run. He’s not going well enough to win a major. He was poor in the Caulfield Stakes last week. Making up the numbers.
20. Gatewood – Emergency 2 (18, 51.5kgs, John Gosden, England, $10)
For: If Gatewood somehow got a run, he could win this race. I’ve been all over him for over four months now. His run last week in the Herbert Power at Caulfield was good when he had no luck. 2400m is his go and – with recent form through the third placegetter (Masterstroke) in this month’s Arc de Triomphe (arguably the world’s greatest race) – he’s weighted to win. He’s on the up. His presence will be felt.
Against: Gatewood is the second emergency. He requires two scratchings to make the field. I’m not sure Gosden is keen on this bloke on a seven-day break but he’s good enough to overcome it. It’s a sporting tragedy that, in all likelihood, he won’t be in the field.
21. Ibicenco – Emergency 3 (15, 51.5kgs, Luca Cumani, England)
SCRATCHED
22. Fictional Account – Emergency 4 (7, 50kgs, David Hayes, Australia, Imported? Yes, $101)
For: Struggling to find too many positives here. She’s fit and she can run the trip.
Against: Needs a miracle to get in the field. She’s eight-years old and appears to have hit her peak. She needs to improve several lengths on recent form and would probably run close to last if she made the final 18.
Tips
I’m going to leave Gatewood out of my top eight because I don’t think he will get into the field. But if he makes it, he’ll be my top selection.
1. Glencadam Gold
2. Voila Ici
3. December Draw
4. Lights Of Heaven
5. Moudre
6. Sneak A Peek
7. Jakkalberry
8. Folding Gear
Keen to take on:
Americain, Dunaden, My Quest For Peace, Alcopop
Scuba
Guest
Justin, I'm on again, but the odds aren't as generous this time. Actually think she might be better suited in the Myer in two weeks.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Lozza, It's no so much the hoof problem but more that the trainer said he's a week behind. If he wins it will be some effort. The barrier itself is a massive hurdle.
nan
Guest
moudre over rated and so is alcopop
John
Guest
Moudre is a dead set chance and at 50/1 I've got something on him. He's got too many things in his favour and I'm very happy to be watching him with the light weight getting a cosy run off the pace and he can and will peel off some very good sectionals from the 600.
lozza
Guest
Geez Justin - in Dunaden's 12 starts at 2400m - he has placed 11 from 12 at the distance and his worst run is a 3.5 lens 6th! This horse has run slashing time in Hong Kong too You must really think that he has real problems with that hoof? My Quest for Peace seems to show his best first up/freshened - my thinking here it is best to disregard the 35 length defeat - too bad to be true imo. My tips here 1. My Quest For Peace - like the weight and i reckon Cumani's just got to break through in one of our two major Hcps sooner or later - right? 2.Dunaden - one of the toughest 2400m class horses in the field - Viewed did it so could this bloke bad hoof or not. 3. Voila Ici - like this crazy import - looks extremely well suited to Caulfield imo. 4. Americain - way too classy not to be thereabouts (assuming he runs). 5. December Draw - looks back to his best again. 6. Glencadam Gold - should run ok also - just cant compare the class of the Metrop to this race - too short priced also.
ryan
Guest
am not a horse racin fan bt my wife works at the bookmakers,she jst asked me what horse would come in 1st on these cup.theirs no science nor tricks but just had a feelin Voila just sounds right and cnt wait to see him run.good luck folks on these musculous animals.cheers. tips:voila,secret admire,gatewood.
Andrew Potter
Roar Guru
There's a bit of speed out wide, and not too many natural leaders, so I can see Voila Ici and Glencadam Gold getting to the front of the pack easy enough. Would be good to see Glencadam Gold take a sit behind Voila Ici.
Sh00ter
Roar Pro
Heck thanks, I'll need to make a SS trade...
Sh00ter
Roar Pro
I personally think if anyone likes Glencadam Gold, they should also consider Folding Gear. Both progressive 5 year olds, with a good winning strike rate and FG is a track specialist who gets in really well at the weights for a peak run. Gets a lovely trail just off the speed from an inside barrier with a good jock. Glad you put him in your top 8 Justin, he's in my betting calculations and star stable!
Sh00ter
Roar Pro
Comprehensive analysis Justin as usual. I'm pretty sure Dunaden's hoof problem occurred before he travelled o/s and his work at Werribee has been as good as anything over there so it does not worry me in the slightest. He is the best most adaptable 2400m horse in the race and with luck just wins and wins well. the weights are quite compressed and the only horses the connections feared were well weighted against him are not there (Manighar and Red Cadeaux). I can not pretend the gate is not an issue as he is something like odds of 50-1 from outside gates, however those stats don't include many mile and half horses of his calibre. No doubt he gets back a bit looking for cover but hopefully that is better than midfield. I think he's a morale to run in the first four so that makes him a winning chance. Glencadam Gold will take some running down and if the track is not too firm I think My Quest for Peace and Lights of Heaven are the main dangers. I'll be there with bells on looking forward to it!
Haradasun
Guest
For what it's worth I will be having something on December Draw. Great runs in the Underwood and Turnbull and you can't ignore WFA form. Kavanagh must have run over a cat he continues to have bad luck, but by all accounts (and from what I have seen) DD is going better than this time last year. Massively open race, so also give chances to GCG who is just a super horse, sneak a peek and Folding gear. Going to risk Dunaden and Americain, my view is that this is a cup trial for them. Interesting to see how the track plays out. Has been a massivley leader biased track but after 3 carnival days will it even things out for the swoopers down the middle of the track?
Justin Cinque
Expert
Big news Roarers! Southern Speed is out of the Caulfield Cup! Trainer Leon Macdonald cited the barrier (as did I above) as the reason and she'll go to the Cox Plate next. Sabrage moves into the field. Gatewood is only one scratching away from gaining a start in the Caulfield Cup and as Jason wrote above, Americain is maybe a 50/50 shot at taking his part due to the expected firm track. So maybe Gatewood will get in?
Justin Cinque
Expert
Nice Scuba! Will you be sticking with Full Of Spirit tomorrow after you tipped her at long odds on the Turnbull live blog at Flemington last time? Was a massive run behind Mosheen.
Justin Cinque
Expert
The first 600 of the Caulfield Cup is going to be crucial. In any big race the start is so important (maybe except for the Melbourne Cup where the 900m run to the first turn negates a lot of the usual influence of the barrier draw) but the CC barrier draw has really thrown a cat amongst the pigeons. Does Dunaden go forward? Does Americain go back to last? Can Glencadam Gold get across? Will this be one of the more high-pressure Caulfield Cups we've seen? And who, of the well-drawn horses, will enjoy the box seat? It's going to be a very interesting race to analyse post-race.
Jason Cave
Guest
Don't be surprised if Americain is a late scratching on race morning. The connections aren't too happy with the state of the track for Caulfield tomorrow. My tips: 1) 9. Glencandam Gold 2) 5. December Draw 3) 7. Sothern Speed And don't forget to watch the Norman Robinson Stakes. It's a good guide to the AAMI Victoria Derby at Flemington in a fortnight from now.
sheek
Guest
My wife's uncle is one of these hounds who bets by chasing where the money's going in the last 5-10 minutes before barrier rise. But when I bumped into him at the shops today, he told me his two early tips were Jackleberry & Sneak A Peek.
Scuba
Guest
Very tough after the barrier draw. My preview (for what little it's worth): Americain - you'd think he would struggle on his Autumn campaign, but his French trainer (and travelling team) has proven to be a fair dinkum genius getting horses to run well here (Exhibit A - Shahwardi last week, apart from all of Americain's previous runs under his care). Reckon he's still a big chance. Dunaden - thought he'd win until the draw. Will be interesting to see how he's ridden - stable suggestion was that this race (and not the Melbourne Cup) was the prime aim this time. If so, he'll be ridden reasonably aggressively to try to slot in just forward of midfield. If they've changed their mind, he'll go straight back and do the Lucas Cranach run (complete with same foot abscess) from last year. Unders. Jakkalberry - admittedly I haven't seen a replay of his run in the Sheema, but his run in the Hardwicke was poor, and I must have been watching a different American St Leger to all the people getting excited about his run in that race (it could also be the horrific music that plays over the Youtube clip). Don't like him myself. Winchester - reckon his two runs here have been very good, but no early speed and will get too far back. Would like to see him running on to give him a chance at Flemington, but only a rough chance here. December Draw - going very very well this time in. Should possie up just off the pace (always a good place to be here). At about his right price now but has an enormous chance. Voila Ici - he's a nutcase, but he's going very well. Best run here was at Caulfield where he got nutted lated by Ocean Park in the Underwood. Has to go forward from the outside barrier. I think he's a better chance than fellow leader Glencadam Gold and at a much better price. Southern Speed - I backed her last year, but I can't do the same this time around. Last run was totally out of character, but you never want to see a horse being eased down at the tail at her last run before her grand final. Sanagas - not going to waste any words - no. Glencadam Gold - well, Gai declared he would win the Caulfield Cup after his first run here. As Pierro showed in the Slipper this year, Gai's big declarations occasionally come true. He couldn't have done more in his runs here, but after his penalties he's getting close in the weights to the much better performed Europeans. Don't think the barrier is a huge worry given the lack of speed, and has a chance, but $4.60 is a bit short. Note - do not get involved in drinking games that involve shots every time Tom Waterhouse starts referring to "Mum's horse" this and "Mum's horse" that - you won't see the main race! My Quest For Peace - I'm warming to this horse. His run in the Hardwicke was bad but his career stats show that he's rubbish on soft ground. He won't get that here. Cumani has had nothing but bad luck this trip but this is the horse who can change all that. Should get a decent smother in the first half and provided he can handle the pressure of the big field, will be in the finish. Niwot - Thought he ran well in the Turnbull. Can't see him winning here but ticking over nicely to have a rough chance in the Melbourne Cup. Lights Of Heaven - was going like a busted until her last run. Brisbane Carnival distance form hasn't stood up (Mawingo, anyone?). $12 way too short. Secret Admirer - I won a lot of money on her early in her career, but she has turned into a money-muncher. I won't be on tomorrow, which means she will probably win. My best guess is that she will run on (as always) and finish just behind the placegetters. Sneak A Peek - Peter Moody's best chance. Justin, I reckon he jarred up last run, which was still ok. Drawn well, form ties in around Jakkalberry and Voila Ici. Shapes as though 2400 will suit down to the ground. Reckon the Cup goes to Queensland owners via an Italian horse. Alcopop - big run last week, but have it in the back of my head that he did the same thing in the same race behind So You Think two years ago, and then ran awfully next time out. Some chance but think his best chance of winning either Cup passed back in 2009. Moudre - Ciaron Maher just needs one big win to catapault him into the spotlight because he is one of the best trainers going around. Justin, agree with your summary again - if he has overcome his issues from last start (and Maher is very good with horses with issues) 50/1 is an enormous price on his first up run. Folding Gear - the owners will be stoked to have a Caulfield Cup runner. Good win last start in the Naturalism but Shahwardi showed last week that the horses he beat are second-raters. Honest as the day is long but can't win. Zabeelionaire - always been a fan of this horse but he is only "just" going at the moment. Can improve but doubt it'll be enough to win. Tips: Sneak A Peek December Draw My Quest For Peace Moudre
Bondy.
Guest
Americain races best I believe the melbourne way of going, Dunanden's trainer suggest he's not right and a week behind what if he wins by two lengths . secret admirer's jumping 800 mtrs in distance and has never won beyond a mile,moudre knows when the punters are on and says not today thank you. I wonder the thougths of Alain de Royer Dupre winning with his pit pony last week,money for jam. I'm going to back both an australian and european horse ,something at 8's for the aussie and 19's for the european. Good luck guys. Well done Justin.
sheek
Roar Guru
Justin, Phew! The barrier draw has really thrown this race wide open. Most everyone has a theory of how the pace of this race will be & scenarios given, but as we saw last week with Pierro, what happens at the start of the race can impact significantly at the post. Will Glencadam Gold use too much gas at the start coming across? Who will be forced to race wide? Which horses will get squeezed in the middle, or shunted back along the rails? Perhaps more so than usual, the jockeys will have to be really on their game to ensure their horses take up a decent position without too much early exertion.