Last season, the Memphis Grizzlies failed to replicate their impressive 2011 playoffs run that put them a game away from the Western Conference Finals.
The LA Clippers defeated the fourth-seed Grizzlies in the first round of the 2012 post-season, meaning in the minds of many the boys from Beale Street are now in a kind of NBA purgatory.
That they couldn’t back up in the playoffs last year says they aren’t capable of being a serious threat. That they still nabbed the fourth seed despite Zach Randolph’s injury says they aren’t going to fall too far short of that.
The challenge for Memphis this season will be to – just as they did two years ago – smash down the outside perception of them.
The three biggest questions for the Grizzlies in 2012/13:
What difference will it make having Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph together and fit?
Put simply, it will make a huge difference.
In 2010/11, the Grizzlies lost Rudy Gay to injury in February. Their phenomenal post-season run happened with him on the sidelines. Randolph was an All-Star that year and led the team in the playoffs.
In 2011/12, the Grizzlies lost Randolph to injury in the fourth game of the season. He returned in time for the playoffs but was limited in what he could do. Gay was the team’s star.
This season, the hope is that both Gay and Randolph can stay on the court and be at their best. Basic logic suggests that for the Grizzlies to do any real damage, this will need to be the case. Along with Marc Gasol, these guys are the team’s elite and without them, the task of matching it with the more star-studded teams becomes much harder.
To illustrate why things might look a little different, in that series against the Clippers, the three games where Randolph managed to hit both 15 points and eight rebounds were all Grizzlies wins. All four losses came when he could not manage the feat.
Can the Grizzlies cover the loss of O.J. Mayo?
Yes and no. Getting nothing in return for Mayo – especially when there weren’t any other headline-grabbing moves involving the Grizzlies – isn’t great. The real problem with it is you doubt anyone will be able to replicate his scoring off the bench.
Having said that, the Grizzlies had two very obvious deficiencies last season: the lack of outside shooting and, thanks to the inexplicable trading of Greivis Vasquez, a genuine back-up point guard. It became clear O.J. – who shot marginally above 40% from the field and 36% from three – was the answer to neither of these deficiencies.
So they’ve brought in Jerryd Bayless, who will be an upgrade in that back-up role at the point. They’ve brought in Wayne Ellington, who’s a three-point shooter, albeit one coming off a bad shooting season. They’ll also be giving more minutes to second-year guard Josh Selby, who was co-MVP of Summer League this off-season.
In short, the loss of Mayo has led to some major holes being plugged. But it still remains to be seen who fills the scoring void. Mo Speights? Darrell Arthur coming off yet another injury? Ellington or Selby?
This is something that will need to be addressed for the Grizzlies to do anything more than break even from Mayo’s departure.
Was 2011 a fluke or are the Grizzlies the real deal?
The Grizzlies may not be the most talented team – there’s no Kevin Durant or LeBron James or Kobe Bryant – but they work hard, get in their opponent’s faces and do the unfashionable stuff and it serves them well.
Last season, Memphis led the league in steals. They ranked first for opposition turnovers. They were top five for offensive rebounds and points in the paint. So long as this grit and grind mentality is maintained, with the players they have now they’ll never be too far short of the big boys.
The starting five – Conley, “The Grindfather” Tony Allen, Gay, Randolph, Gasol – is a solid core. Conley’s preseason has hinted at significant improvement while, as already mentioned, Gay and Randolph together will make a noticeable difference.
Bench concerns aside, there’s a spot on the list of contenders for the Grizzlies.
Memphis Grizzlies Snapshot:
Last season:
Regular Season:
– 41 wins, 25 losses
– Finished fourth in the Western Conference, and second in the Southwest Division
Playoffs:
– Lost 4-3 to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round
Statistical leaders in 2011/12:
– Points: Rudy Gay (19 ppg)
– Rebounds: Marc Gasol (8.9 rpg)
– Assists: Mike Conley (6.5 apg)
Major additions:
Jerryd Bayless, Wayne Ellington, Tony Wroten
Major losses:
O.J. Mayo, Dante Cunningham, Gilbert Arenas
Coach:
Lionel Hollins
Career record: 158 wins, 175 losses
Predicted finish in 2012/13:
Regular season:
– 5th in the Western Conference
– 2nd in the Southwest Division
Playoffs:
– Lose in the second round
Swampy
Guest
The key to the grizzlies is a fit Randolph. He is so smart and can kill the best defences when in condition. Not sure he will ever be fully fit again though. Marc Gasol is arguably the 3rd best center in the NBA. To say he is nothing compared to his brother is wrong. They are different (like chalk and cheese actually) and Marc is probably the best banger in the league. If Rudy Gay is your main man, then that is a problem. They should trade him for a 2/3 man that can shoot (James Harden or rescue Stephen Curry???) and handle the ball. Memphis just need to make the playoffs and get Zac there in shape and they will be a nightmare for someone again. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
melo-drama
Guest
Are there bears in Memphis?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Whilst I tend not to take too much credence in pre-season form (as you alluded to) you can't dismiss 70% shooting from behind the arc! I did not know that stat. That is really stroking it. Perhaps one of Selby, Bayless or Ellington can step up and be the shooter they need as well. I just think that if they're relying on said players in crunch time, that's a bit of a worry. We'll see!
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Too true, Ryan. Randolph and Gasol are very effective in the paint, obviously one of the best combinations in the league. The perimeter shooting is something the Grizzlies would like to think they've addressed in their recruiting. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't. One guy to keep an eye on is Mike Conley. Preseason stats are often meaningless so this didn't make the cut in the final article, but he has been shooting very well so far. His 3P% for preseason games .706, which ranks him third in the league. As already mentioned in the comments, he's only 25 so he's one guy who could improve.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I still think they're a sleeper because not many teams have two elite post players. With the league going smaller and smaller, it actually gives the Grizzlies a bigger advantage. But they're going to need some perimeter shooting, or teams will just double team Randolph and Gasol, and dare the Grizzlies to beat them from outside.
melo-drama
Guest
The Grizz biggest problem is their depth and lack of role players Marc Gasol is good for a big man but he's never going to be Pau and Rudy Gay needs to get a more well rounded game if is going to justify his mega millions contract the Grizz invested in him. Still a competitor but beating the Spurs a couple of seasons ago was a fluke 1st round exit for this outfit. Randolph cant even jump over a ham sandwich......
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Yep age is another big factor, astro. Will need someone like Selby, Ellington, Wroten to step up on the shooting front for sure.
astro
Roar Rookie
What amazes me about Memphis is their age! Randolph only just turned 31, and Gasol 27, Conley 25 and Gay 26, still have room to improve. They always seem like a much older team for some reason... Anyway, shooting is their problem. Allen and Conley are a poor shooting backcourt and that will hurt them.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Johnno, the move happened in 2001. Agree it would've been nice for Canada to have more than one team.
Johnno
Guest
When did the Grizzlies leave Vancouver anyone know. It's a shame the Grizzlies left vancouver. Oh well Memphis has Elvis and now the Grizzlies, hope they have a good season.