The 2011 Tour de France champion Cadel Evans has a better chance of winning the 2013 Tour than he did defending his crown in 2012.
But the Australian will still be an outside bet to ride into Paris on the evening of 21st July in the yellow jersey or even first in his team.
Evans was present at the unveiling of the Tour 2013 route in Paris this week and stood up on the stage along other winners in recent years – the likes of Bradley Wiggins, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck – as well as key figures such as Mark Cavendish and Philippe Gilbert.
For the race’s 100th edition, the organisers have come up with a glorious route that is both innovative and nostalgic.
Starting without a prologue on the race’s first ever visit to Corsica and ending with a special nocturnal Parisian stage in which the famous Champs Elysees circuit is extended to include the Arc de Triomphe, the 2013 Tour features four mountaintop finishes, two individual time trials and one team time trial.
Highlights include a Sunday afternoon Bastille Day showdown on the fearsome Mont Ventoux (stage 15), a time trial that finishes in the shadow of the iconic Mont Saint-Michel (stage 11) and an unprecedented double ascent of Alpe d’Huez in one afternoon (stage 18).
During the presentation, the audience was shown a reel of the best moments of the 2012 race – including the moment Evans cracked in stage 11 of the race on the brutal Col de la Croix de Fer and then, five days later, in the Pyrenees, where he waved goodbye to any chance of a podium finish.
Evans eventually finished seventh overall, 15:49 behind winner Wiggins. That seems like a huge gap on paper but it came on the back of a season hampered by sinus problems and poor form.
It can’t be overlooked that Evans won the Tour in 2011 after bouncing back from finishing 45 minutes down in 30th in 2009 and 50 minutes down in 25th in 2010.
Be that as it may, does even a fully fit Evans, at 36, have enough left in the tank to become the second oldest Tour winner in history? (Belgian Firmin Lambot won in 1922 aged 36 – but his birthday came a month before the Australian’s).
In a word: no.
Evans’s win in 2011 combined careful damage limitation in the hills with a tactical masterclass, the BMC leader boldly leaving it until the penultimate stage to overturn a deficit on Andy Schleck and take the yellow jersey into Paris after a superb final time trial.
But that was a year in which Contador was riding half empty following his exertions in the Giro and Wiggins was watching from home after breaking a collarbone in the opening week.
Wiggins won the Tour in 2012 because of his supreme time trial riding and a bullish, metronomic, almost robotic performance by his Sky team. In team-mate Chris Froome he also had both his main rival and his main weapon.
Where 2012 had more than 100 kilometres of individual time trials and only three summit finishes, 2013 has many more climbs and just two short ITTs: the flat 32km ride to Mont Saint-Michel and the 33km mountain time trial from Embrum to Chorges in stage 17 – billed as the “toughest ever Tour time trial” by race organisers.
Garmin-Sharp boss Jonathan Vaughters summed things up perfectly when he told Cyclingnews that the 2013 route “is suited to a strong climber who can time trial well and who has a strong team” whereas “this year was suited to a strong time triallist who could defend”.
Although one of the few bright parts of Evans’s 2012 season was a victory in the three-day Criterium International in Corsica, the 2013 Tour’s opening few days will be a challenge for a rider of such a nervous disposition.
As Evans admitted at the launch: “To race on those roads in Corsica in the Tour peloton – that’s going to be very tough.”
Should the Australian get through those stages unscathed then there’s the matter of the team time trial in Nice. At just 25km in length, the time gaps will not be enormous and BMC should be up there with the top teams – although probably not as strong as Sky or Garmin.
The mountains will, however, be a problem for Evans. The two stages in the Pyrenees will push Cadel to the limit of his powers – and should he hold on (plus limit his losses in the ITT), then stage 15 to Mont Ventoux will be critical.
The clear problem for Evans is that he’s not the kind of rider who will take serious time from his rivals in the mountains – and as such, it’s hard to see where exactly he can chip away.
If one ascent of Alpe d’Huez was not daunting enough, two in the same afternoon ask serious questions for someone carrying the amount of bulk that Evans has. Schleck would be looking at this stage with hungry eyes were it not for the dangerous descent down the back of the Col de Sarenne.
A final week that includes a mountain time trial and three back-to-back Alpine stages will make it one of the hardest final weeks to any Tours of the previous 100 years. Whoever wins the race will have to be a rider at the peak of their powers, and not one whose are on the wane.
Asked who he thinks will star in 2013, Evans remained coy. “I won’t say a favourite for the course yet – it’s still very early to say – but I would say it will be more of an all-round rider than 2012 but that’s not to say Sky can’t repeat again.”
If Sky do repeat their 2012 win then it will probably not be with the man who stood atop the podium in Paris last July. Dressed in an outrageously camp purple Paul Smith overcoat with a dual flappy triangular winged collars, the defending champion was present at the route launch on Wednesday.
But while Wiggo’s jacket remained firmly buttoned-up throughout proceedings, the Briton did open up about his chances – or lack of – with admirable candour.
“It was all about winning one Tour. I’ve done that now and I’m very proud the way I did it,” said Wiggins before revealing his intention to concentrate on the Giro d’Italia next season.
“The Giro’s a beautiful race and I’d love to win that pink jersey along with the yellow jersey.
“But I’ll be there at the start [of the Tour], that’s for sure. If Chris [Froome] is the leader then we go for it. But my priority is the Giro. It’s become apparent that it’s very difficult to compete in two Grand Tours and so it’s very likely I’ll be there in a helping capacity.”
While BMC manager Jim Ochowicz stressed on Wednesday that his team would be going to the Tour with Evans as the team captain and the American Tejay van Garderen as back up, things may pan out differently.
“Cadel is very motivated and this is a great course for him,” Ochowicz told Cyclingnews. “Tejay is still mentoring under Cadel and we don’t want to put the pressure on him yet.”
Van Garderen may still be Evans’s protege but last year’s white jersey finished two places above his mentor in July – and like Froome, could well have done even better had he been let off the leash.
Interviewed himself at the launch, Van Garderen said the race was “definitely harder than last year” and stressed his team were “going to have to prepare differently”.
“I like it. It is suited to a rider like me. I’m up for the challenge,” Van Garderen added.
Between now and next July, BMC might well realise that they should follow Sky’s lead: just as Wiggins has conceded to Froome, perhaps it’s time for Evans to give way to Van Garderen. After all, there are no teams in the ProTour who would say no to having Bradley Wiggins or Cadel Evans as their Plan B.
Of course, it is all immaterial: Contador will still start the race as overwhelming favourite – yet an in-form Froome should push him.
The rest, I fear, will be also-rans.
Kazzie
Guest
Cadle has learnt a lot from the years when he came second and when he dramatically fell behind through both injury and issues with team management. This showed in 2011 when he won. Before he would have panicked but he seemed more calm and in control. ALso team management showed that when they said they were there to help him win it they meant it. Tejay Van Garderen is still young an serving an apprenticeship. You will probably find that plan A will be cadel, plan b being tejay if thgings go wrong with cadel next year like this year. But if things gow well with cadel and he looks to be in the frame for a win or place then the team will stick with that. One thing I have learnt in life particularly in my career is you never write a person off, they tend to surprise you. The TDF has often been unkind in recent years to favourites - crashes, illness, injury so no one knows who is likely to win it until near the end. To be honest while wiggins may have been in form this year he had a strong team who did a lot of work to keep control of the race, time trials that were toi his advantage and the race was missing the two biggest protagonists in recent years - Andy Schleck and Albeto contador - both of them can be unpredictable and have an uncanny ability to light up the race. I suspect that things would have been a lot more difficult for wiggins if they both were present this year.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Is it still planned to not allow team race radios for the 2013 Tour? How might this affect the performance of some teams and individual riders?
Glenn Mitchell
Expert
Age is likely to be Cadel's main opponent in next year's Tour
Terry
Guest
Does anyone know the exact road the 2013 Tour route will take out of Vaison la Romaine to Gap?
Aaron
Guest
i thought i heard J-rod himself saying that the giro would be very tough, with its long time trial etc. so if katusha have the brains they will bring him to the tour, with menchov working for him.
Skippy
Guest
Evans will undoubtedly join the top 10 at the TDF finale in Paris , but it is likely that TJ will do better , perhaps Podium ! The shorter roue for the Media will help the Racers but not the Public that tries to be at each stage . I for one will have to miss some so as to enjoy the rest days riding with the teams . Prudhomme missed an opportunity to clean up the " Le Tour " ! Had he made it CLEAR that only Racers that publicly declared they were " DRUG FREE " were welcome . THEN we, the public , would see an honest performance for the first time since 1990 ! Tied of seeing winners results declared " Vacated "? I AM ! Join me in creating a NEW START for Cycling : : http://t.co/jUwet4To Costs you nothing ! Spend your money on supporting " Paul Kimmage Defence Fund " , be part of the 2250+ that have offered US$70k + Monday we saw a SPECTACLE IN AIGLE , WHERE THE PHAT , said " No contact with Armstrong for months , then " We spoke on the phone Friday " ! Phone is no longer contact ? Support those seeking NEW Leadership of the " UCI "! RULES & REGULATIONS , are for ALL to observe , not for the " UCI Management " though , they can pick & choose ?
Felix Lowe
Expert
I think Rolland is a good call for a top five. He's progressed year on year - and this route really suits him. Just one short flat ITT for him to get through. We saw what he did on Alpe d'Huez a couple of years back - and last year, winning a stage following a nasty crash early in the race. The crazy thing is that ASO did not invite any Frenchmen up on the stage at the presentation - what was that about. Surely there was place for riders like Voeckler and Rolland at the launch of their own home Tour?
Felix Lowe
Expert
There's talk of Rodriguez riding the Tour this year. He's only ridden it once - in 2010, when he finished 7th. He has a remarkable record in all Grand Tours - and there's no denying that he lights up any race he enters. Rodriguez is definitely someone who likes to drive a race as opposed to be a passenger. And there's also the question of Menchov: the Russian was Katusha leader for the Tour this year, but struggled to make an impact in the GC. He was similarly redundant on the Vuelta - although he did win the penultimate stage at Bola del Mundo. His days are over as a GC rider, so perhaps Katusha will give J-Rod the chance. The thing is, being Spanish, Rodriguez always favours the Vuelta over the Tour. But this year's route - will only 32km of flat time trialling - may make him change his schedule.
Jabbar
Guest
Rolland? No- not this year. As for Cadel, i would not write him of so early. Let's wait until something like Romandie or Dauphine. He needs to win something, or a stage here or there, to assert himself. I would love to see him win. He is true champion, and an ambassador for clean sportsmanship.
Rhys
Guest
To me Contador looked very ill at ease when he was up on stage with the line of 'champions'. Perhaps he was trying to work out Wiggo's choice of wardrobe. I'd still rate Schleck, of the Andy variety, to figure prominently, and Nibali should also be in the mix. But my long range pick is Pierre Rolland. The 100th anniversary may just be the added motivation the young Frenchman needs to win his country's Grand Tour.
sittingbison
Guest
Contador will win the 100th edition of the race. The guy who has already shamed cycling and the Tour in particular. Joined the disgraced doping winners club with gallery of rogues Riis, Armstrong and Landis. Brought further discredit to himself and cycling by publicly ridiculing anti-doping in refusing to acknowledge he has been stripped of titles. Shouldn't be riding in 2013 if he served the correct 2 year ban rather than 6 month ludicrous CAS ruling. What a champion of cycling. What a paragon of virtue. Go Bertie. Excellent article Felix. My thoughts are that Sky has reignited the systematic team based doping arms race which quieted down a bit in 2011 after Armstrong retired and Contador was busted. The only thing that will prevent this is the Spanish Peurto court case and the Italian investigation into Ferrari etc. These easily have the potential to be far broader reaching and damaging than USADA. Sky itself is busily imploding after Leinders and Jullich have just been sacked, and Yates, Knaven, Rogers could all easily follow shortly. Wiggo has no chance. Froome will either test positive or be a complete bust he has no natural abilities. I think it will actually be one of the younger generation, the likes of TJvG or a frog like Rolland.
jameswm
Guest
Froome and Contador the favourites. Much as I'd love Cadel to win it again, I can't see him having enough petrol in the tank. Who knows how much his illness etc affected his performance this year?
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Felix do you think there is any chance we might see Rodriguez at the TDF? I loved watching him this year, he really animated the Giro and Vuelta. I agree I think Cadel is out of it. Everything went right for him last year, and it is hard to imagine all the stars will align again. Contador on paper still looks like the one to beat with his overall ability.
Mantis
Roar Guru
I can't wait for the tour. Stage 18 is going to be a cracker, once up the Alp D'Huez is torture enough, but twice.... wow. I hope Cadel has a good run, would be good if he could fly under the radar for a while and make an attack at some point that catches people off guard. I know realistically he wont win it, but it would be great to see him have a good crack at it.
rgmerk
Roar Rookie
It's an open question how strong Contador will be in 2013. He was good in the Vuelta, but didn't have that margin of superiority tha he's had in the past. He only beat Rodridguez and Valverde by a tactical coup. Furthermore, we have no idea whether Sky will be able to repeat their bulldozer tactics of 2012. Whatever the sources of their marginal gains are, they can't keep it secret forever; the rest of the peloton will catch up.
Elisha Pearce
Expert
Good coverage there Felix. I like this article. Looking back on the 2011 win for Cadel, I know he's a brilliant rider and had a fantastic career, but that race may have been the one. He still shows that he's a top 10 pro on the bike which is great. But 2011 may have been that one race where he stood up and rode beyond what he's normally capable of. Sure Contador was out of sorts, 2 years out and not being able to dope may have done that. :P But Cadel basically had to take on the Schleck brothers (and team) all alone. One of the greatest sporting achievements I've ever seen was the stage where Frank formed the breakaway and Andy used it as the launchpad for his own break, but Cadel singlehandedly chased it down up the final climb so it was negligible by the end. The amazing thing was that he did it without a huge burst at any point - the diesel engine just drove on at a high constant speed to the point where the rest of the top 10 with him couldn't even sustain it. It's not often you see the guys he was dropping fall off without a suge. Anyway - tangent alert. I just like to appreciate what he's achieved before we ask more. Next year Cadel would have to be a bit lucky to win I think. I'd be happy for him to be in top 10 and nab a stage. He's probably best of trying to attack a few times and get a win or two.