When the five New Zealand Super franchises announce their squads this morning, the crystal-ball gazing into next year’s competition can begin in earnest.
Mix in the start of the pre-seasons for the Australian franchises this week and the sense grows that the first foundations are being laid.
There will be a host of new names to digest among the Kiwi squads, with those prominent from New Zealand’s under-20 campaign this being fed into the system after a spell in ITM Cup.
But most interest will surround the composition of the Blues and the Highlanders, for opposing reasons.
Eyes will scan over the Blues’ list and the question “Who are these blokes?” will soon follow, while one look at the Highlanders squad will convince some that they are finals-bound.
The likes of Ma’a Nonu, Tony Woodcock and Brad Thorn have signed up with Jamie Joseph’s men while the Blues will have to rely on Baden Kerr and Ronald Raaymakers.
Accordingly money will flow towards the Dunedin-based franchise to make the finals, while the Blues will take on the unfamiliar role of rank outsiders. I’d hesitate before placing that Highlanders bet. Experience is a wonderful thing but a roster of Test veterans is no guarantee of Super Rugby success.
Ask the Waratahs about that – or, to a lesser degree, the Crusaders over the past five years.
In fact, it’s one of Michael Cheika’s biggest challenges.
The issue of the number of Waratahs players in the Test squad throughout the year is one that has provoked a fair bit of heat.
But it’s not as simple as them being “rewarded” for a poor season, and also more complex than “they have a lot of Test players so they’ll be successful at Super Rugby”.
The likes of Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson and Wycliff Palu feed straight into the national team because they have long proven themselves at the Super level.
They were playing in Super Rugby finals and semi-finals years ago. They have been through the auditioning period the likes of Hugh Pyle, Sam Carter and others are going through.
There is no Test coach in work today who would jettison that experience, even if the players were in an underperforming provincial unit.
Similarly, when James Horwill comes back next year, he won’t have to be the “form” second-rower of the Australian conference to win back his Wallabies place, nor should he be. His qualities at the elite level are already well known.
The difficulty these players now face – and it is a challenging one – is playing at a consistently high level over a long Super and Test season. No one can be at their peak from February to December, or even close to it. Even the Reds, who are by general consensus the most adroitly managed group, struggled to repeat 2011’s intensity this year.
New Zealand has a long established way of dealing with this – they simply yank their established players out of Super Rugby and tell them to put their feet up, to the detriment of the franchises concerned and the benefit of the All Blacks.
A different lie of the land in Australia prevents such dramatic interventions, but the same issues apply. Super sides heavy with Test caps carry their own burdens.
So while NSW and the Reds, who together make up more than two-thirds of the Wallabies squad for Europe, are fretting about the welfare of their players on tour, the other three franchises are happily plotting against them with fuller squads.
Brumbies management might not have been altogether distraught that some of their players missed out.
The extra planning time did them no harm in 2012.
Similarly, look at this year’s Super champions, the Chiefs, for further evidence of the disconnect between the number of Test front-liners and Super success.
At the start of the campaign they had only one player, Richard Kahui, who was a starting All Black.
The key for them – apart from the sharp coaching – the number of other hungry players who wanted to be one.
This is not to say that expectations of the Waratahs shouldn’t be high. The carrot of the British and Irish Lions arriving before the Super season even ends should guarantee that their big players are playing closer to their peak than they were this season.
But Cheika is going to need time.
Turning that side into Super challengers, and refreshing the squad to his liking, is more than a 12-month job.
Ra
Guest
Taranaki will gobble him up, if he crosses the ditch, good launching pad to the Hurricanes
Atawhai Drive
Guest
Very interesting that he's spoken to Aaron Mauger (who's knocked him back) and Leon MacDonald (ditto), as well as Tabai Matson and Daryl Gibson. I thought the Waratahs backs coach position was already sorted, but seemingly not.
Red Kev
Guest
Mauger would be a great signing, he has a quality rugby brain.
Paulo
Guest
Interested to see this article today - http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/7890625/Aussies-raid-for-Canterbury-based-coaches
Intotouch
Guest
Chris I don't think that you're being fair to Cheika. Letting the Leinster forwards wane? Ireland's first choice forwards came mainly from Munster for the previous ten years because they were an unusually stong bunch, but historically Munster have played a more forward based game anyway. I believe it was Cheika who brought back Leo Cullen and of course brought over Rocky Elsom. I think that Heaslip and O'Brien started with him as well. I would have said that he strengthened the Leinster forwards. Before he came Leinster were always a team of great backs but that was all. Grinding out wins with their strong scrum was something that never happened before his time there. As for his time at Stade Francais the club famously imploded soon after him arriving. They were suddenly up to their eyeballs in debt and had to be bailed out. I don't know what the situation is now but for a while it looked like they were on the verge of collapse. So in that chaos and lack of funds what do you hope for a coach to achieve? Personally I think that two years is a more realistic length of time to give a coach to prove himself.
bennalong
Guest
And who called you a Pilloch?
Dave
Guest
I'm at the point of wondering if it's possible to ever get any objective analysis out of a Queenslander. The chip on your shoulder is getting so old.
yahyah
Guest
Hodgson was given his best oppurtunity against Samoa. We all know what happened. And Luke, hpw many people disagree with Piri Weepu's inclusion in the ABs? How many inconsistent seasons has Richie McCaw had at Super level? Experience is invaluable and Deans cant afford to throw in all his in form players who total close to zero caps altogether if you consider the number of injuries this year. All Blacks have a full set of regulars so therefore can afford to mix in two or three new young guns. Australia dont have the same luxury at the moment.
Bakkies
Guest
The papers still get sold in the ACT. Though the ACT readership base is small it's not entirely irrelevant.
Harry
Guest
X 5, I really hate the way the wallabies are used as a development/reconditioning side. I understand about the horrendous injury toll, and the lack of meaningful 3rd tier games but even so it has been the main weakness of Australian rugby for years. Hopefully not next season.
DC of nz
Guest
Quade Cooper just got fined $60k by the ARU And he is yet to sign a contract with them ....
DC of nz
Guest
I think you pick the best players available yes ? Plus the ABs want to play to win every game . I don't think you blood a stack of new players in the northern hemisphere - are we not unbeaten there since 2002 ?
Mike
Guest
"The likes of Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson and Wycliff Palu feed straight into the national team because they have long proven themselves at the Super level." Exactly. Teams like the All Blacks are not stupid enough to drop a proven test performer simply because a new player has a good season at S15.
Pillock
Roar Rookie
Chris, nothing like cold hard facts to settle the argument. Can you imagine the crap that McQueen would have had to put up with to get Geo Smith & Larkham selected against the Tahs crew? You can see the same crap starting again now where people are talking up the new coach as the answer to everyone prayers and that as long as the Tahs team bus arrives on time they will win. With any luck there will be a change of attitude however seems like the same old same old.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Cheika does need " some " time however he does have the horses, not a bad forward pack this one, Kepu TPN Robinson Timani Douglas Dennis Hooper Palu Add in the backs Jameswm mentioned and there is no reason they can't be more than competitive.
Pillock
Roar Rookie
What it does is destroy any morale in the side. Benn Robinson & TPN seemed to spend most of the Super 15 season having a cream bun eating contest and are probably still not it enough to play. Maybe that the trick to getting TPN to stop dropping the ball and throwing it away 6 or 8 times a match, tell him to treat the pill like his lunch. Of all the sides the Brumbies are the team that got shafted the most and I can tell you what it will happen again next year.
jameswm
Guest
He didn't improve so much, he got fitter. He shouldn't have been picked till his fitness was at the required levels.
Nick Cross
Guest
Yeah well I don't think that actually negates my point that it's not correct to say that the ABs pick on form. I only spotted Williams when he got penalised.
jameswm
Guest
I just wish the Tahs had a strong halves combo and someone who can coach the backs to run straight, support and put the ball in front of the man. Maybe Foley and Hart can form a strong halves combo, I can only hope. If Turner, Mitchell, Pakalani, AAC, KIngston and Betham stay fit, there's certainly firepoer out wide to match the strong pack. I just have no faith that they can put it together, though I hope my pessimism is not justified.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Personally I would like to see McCaw, Hore, Mealamu and Carter rested from the EOYT and guys like Weepu, Williams and the older brigade who are underperforming anyway be not considered at all. The amount of depth we have now we can afford to rest all these players, blood a new batch of budding stars and still go undefeated.