It's a big couple of weeks ahead for...

By Brett McKay / Expert

Anticipation can do funny things to the average Australian sports fan (and we in the media, to be fair), particularly when an extended length of time elapses before said event actually begins properly.

Time lends itself to over-analysis and, often, the premature writing off of any hopes of success.

Regardless of whether it’s human nature to be negative, or whether it’s just good, old-fashioned tall poppy-pruning, it’s going to be a big couple of weeks coming up for…

Damien Oliver
Fresh from an impressive Victoria Derby win on Fiveandahalfstar, Oliver will climb aboard 2010 Melbourne Cup winner, Americain, for the 2012 edition this afternoon at Flemington. Should Americain salute, it would be Oliver’s third Melbourne Cup and would come ten years after his last win, on Media Puzzle, won only days after the death of his brother Jason in a race fall.

Oliver also gets a shot at the Derby-Cup double, something that’s only been done once in the last 20 years, when Corey Brown took Monaco Consul and Shocking past the respective posts first in 2009.

But clouding in over all this possible glory and personal triumph, is the investigation into Oliver’s alleged $10,000 bet placed on an opposing horse in a race more than two years ago. The revelation of the bet cost Oliver his original Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup rides, but a guilty finding and expected lengthy suspension could yet cost him so much more.

Ian Crook
Roar regulars will know I allow myself one splurge on football a year and, after switching on the Central Coast-Sydney FC game on Saturday night and almost falling over at the score, it seems about right to jump on this bandwagon.

The ‘Del Piero effect’ has already hooked me in as a viewer, but the Sydney FC coach has a big job ahead of him to make sure the tens of thousands of new fans and semi-interested viewers – like me – aren’t lost as quickly as they emerged.

You’d like to hope the 7-2 loss to the Mariners was a one-off, but Crook needs to remember Sydney has a nasty habit of losing interest in under-performers (ask Michael Foley). Some inspiring wins over the next few weeks would be highly recommended.

Ed Cowan
The popular perception at the moment is that the likable Test opener has barely scored a run since making his Test debut on Boxing Day last summer, and is horribly out of form. The reality, as is often the case, is slightly different to this.

The popular perception overlooks that Cowan’s Test record thus far is not too different to his overall First Class record. He made a ton for Gloucestershire in his brief stint in County cricket, topped the run-scoring and averages for Australia A’s tour of England in July and August, and has only two single-figure scores so far in ten knocks for Tasmania this season.

It is true that since his debut against India he’s made only a couple of First Class hundreds, and a handful of 50s in all forms. His main issue seems to be not going on with the countless starts he makes, which isn’t exactly a form issue, but rather an application and concentration issue.

On the other hand, his opening partner, David Warner, made 2 and 39 for NSW in their outright loss to Queensland on the weekend, in what was his first sighting of a red ball since he left the Caribbean in April. In that time, he’s made an IPL hundred, one ODI and a couple of World T20 50s, and has played only three games – all Twenty20s – since the start of October.

If Cowan is under pressure from the likes of Phillip Hughes and Rob Quiney, then surely Warner has to be in the same boat.

The ageing warriors
With my own birthday wedged neatly in between those of Ricky Ponting’s and Mike Hussey’s, I dare not refer to these two stalwarts as ‘old’. But it’s fair to say they’re getting on a bit.

Realistically, both Ponting and Hussey have to be seen as series-to-series propositions. Consistent runs are their only currency, and can be their only saviour. Fortunately, both go into the first Test in reasonable touch, even if Hussey has also been locked in Twenty20 mode for the last few months. Ponting comes in with a couple of Shield 50s and an unbeaten 162* against two thirds of the Australian Test attack in Melbourne.

Nathan Lyon
Eight wickets for 539 in seven one-and four-day games isn’t exactly the best form to take into a Test series against the best batting side in world cricket, but that’s the form line Australia’s stated number one spinner brings with him.

With Shane Watson now missing from the side to play in Brisbane, the make-up of Australia’s attack becomes something of an unknown quantity again. The temptation to play four specialist quicks will undoubtedly swell again, but then over rates and lack of variety becomes an issue.

Lyon did well in Brisbane last year against New Zealand, and the great SK Warne was often drawn to say, “if it’ll seam, it’ll spin.” I’d play Lyon against the Proteas, but he’ll need to bowl a lot better than he’s shown so far this summer.

Nick Phipps
Suddenly the best scrumhalf in Australia, Phipps will go into Sunday morning’s game against France (AEDT time) to begin a tour that could make or break his Wallaby career going forward.

It can’t have done much for his confidence that Wallaby coach, Robbie Deans, explored the possibility of recalling Luke Burgess from French rugby, in what would’ve been an unprecedented move for Australian Rugby.

Should Phipps fire during the Spring tour, it will cement his place as one of the leading number 9s in the country, but if he suddenly finds himself benched behind veteran Brett Sheehan, there’s no predicting how far down the pecking order he could fall.

And in a Lions Tour year, that’s less than ideal.

The Crowd Says:

2012-11-07T00:31:16+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


Not sure I'd call Nick Phipps the best scrum half in Australia, Mr McKay. Just the healthiest!

2012-11-06T15:24:36+00:00

AndyMack

Guest


Good article Brett. I will pick up the Lyon point you made. It is very worrying if our quicks dont knock over Smith, Amla, Kallis and De Villiers pretty quickly, then Lyon will be in trouble, Swann took 4 wickets at 77 in the EngSA test series, and I think Swann is a better bowler than Lyon by some margin. We could have a few long days in the field over the next 3 tests.

2012-11-06T09:31:52+00:00

Andy_Roo

Roar Guru


Michael Foley? Who?

2012-11-06T04:27:32+00:00

TheGenuineTailender

Roar Guru


Agreed, he needs to sustain this sort of form before he really proves he's lifted his game to that next level.

2012-11-06T04:24:57+00:00

TheGenuineTailender

Roar Guru


His batting average. His conversion rate of 50s to hundreds. His highest score. His experience level. His career achievements. I can think of Australian batsmen not who exceed what Quiney has done across all those categories. Surely those things are of value when you're choosing the next best batsman in the country... How you can argue against that would be beyond me.

2012-11-06T04:21:28+00:00

TheGenuineTailender

Roar Guru


Well Christian is having less opportunity at the crease than McDonald. So to match his run tally would place them on par with one another wouldn't it?

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T04:17:21+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


No, not really James, just a nod to evident form with the bat currently...

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T03:29:18+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


Unfortunately James, I could only pick one - and I tried to pick none!!

2012-11-06T02:50:16+00:00

sittingbison

Guest


just calling it as I see it Brett. I really think the selectors inability to make a decision on Punter and Mr Cricket over the past couple of seasons leaves us in a vulnerable position. The problem with great players is they are capable of sporadic scores as they age, but the poor scores come more frequently. They rarely get smashed to oblivion like Hughes was last year. Its a death of a thousand cuts. And at the very end of their careers at 38yo they are coming up against what is being described as SAs best ever pace attack (admittedly perhaps some hyperbole). Cowan has not yet delivered in two test series. I would like him to, but I'm unconvinced he is a genuine Test player and his age is against him making a breakthrough. In his favour I think he has the temperament to play the SA quicks. Its the same with Warner, though to his credit he is starting to make the transition from 20/20 slogger to Tests but with time on his side. His cavalier approach might unsettle the SA quicks. It will be fun to watch the pair of them, it might work out, but there is an essential solidity to them that is missing from yesteryears openers.

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T02:47:53+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


Cutting's made more Shield runs at a slightly better average that Phil Hughes, right at this point in time, Sledgie..

2012-11-06T02:47:35+00:00

jameswm

Guest


By the way Brett this article should be under about 4 different headings, not just cricket!

2012-11-06T02:46:19+00:00

jameswm

Guest


Ahead of Henriques? No way, they're different players. Henriques is a 6th batsman, a batting all rounder. None of Butterworth, Cutting or Faulkner could fulfil that role.

2012-11-06T01:51:40+00:00

sledgeross

Guest


Good cool on Cutting, hes at least as good as Mitch Johnson was in his pomp. McDonald has been scoring runs and chipping in with some handy medium pacers, he and James hopes have been the most consistent allrounders for the last 5 seasons.

2012-11-06T01:51:10+00:00

The Bush

Roar Guru


Fair enough Brett. It is an interesting time with Watson injured, the batting lineup was "settled" compared to previous summers. Now you have the interesting circumstance where a bloke who "has to be selected" will return after one Test, so who gets dropped? I am actually happy Khawaja wasn't selected, as it doesn't do these guys much good to get picked for one off Tests (obviously you would assume that Quiney would have to do something special, whilst others fail, to retain his position). At the same time, based on the class of this South Africa bowling attack, if Quiney can post a Century and Cowan fails, it's be hard to say no...

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T01:40:55+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


Maybe even Ben Cutting, JB...

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T01:40:15+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


not right at the moment, Bushy, no. I was actually saying that in support of Khawaja, by the way, I don't think there could've been much between he and Quiney coming into the team now, they're both batting pretty well..

2012-11-06T01:36:18+00:00

JohnB

Guest


Fair to say it's not a "standard early season hundred" given it's the first one he's hit! However, that does rather reinforce your overall point. Butterworth (Faulkner even?) would currently be ahead of him also.

2012-11-06T01:27:37+00:00

The Bush

Roar Guru


"I don’t think there’s that much difference between Khawaja and Quiney in terms of what they offer" Really? Khawaja has a First Class average of 45 and Quiney has a one of 37. I'd say they are classes apart, not to mention Khawaja is only 25 and could yet bloosem at Test level...

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T01:15:11+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


such a rosy outlook over there in the west, Bison!!

AUTHOR

2012-11-06T01:13:47+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


again though, what's your measure there? Their run tallies are pretty similar so far, but the difference is that McDonald is batting at 4 and 5 to Christian's 6..

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