The Knicks have been one of the big surprises of this NBA season, sporting an 9-4 record and an average winning margin of 6.8 points.
Yes Knicks fans – who apparently only come in two flavours: bat-guano crazy and clinically irrational – will rant on about how no one believed in them, despite being picked by virtually everyone to make the playoffs and how ‘Melo’ should be in the running for MVP, despite having more giveaways than Scoopon.
But there lurks a devil in the darkness for this Knicks squad. A villain with a reach so long and a super power so great that even Dwight Howard gets a slight back twinge. The monster of mean reversion.
Right now the Knicks are shooting the lights out from deep. When Ronnie Brewer is scorching the twine like Jimmy Chitwood either the Mayans were correct or you are riding the proverbial hot streak.
There are six players who have played more than 200 minutes and attempted a trey and only one of them is shooting below .400 from deep. The irony being the culprit, Steve Novak, is the only guy who averages more than .400 for their career.
On this team only one other player, JR Smith the shameless gunner for whom confidence is a drug, who has a career average above .350.
If the Knicks were shooting their career averages or averages over the past four years from deep they’d be 6.3 points or 5.3 points worse off per game respectively. That is pretty significant versus a margin of victory of 6.9 points.
So what happens from here? It is possible for the Knicks to continue their stellar form, but unlikely. You are more likely to see a trend back towards the mean.
Now what does the mean, er, mean for the Knicks? Well, sadly for these guys, a by product of their proclivity for the long bomb has been an absence on the offensive glass so if those extra makes turn to misses that’s a material difference to the score line.
So where does that leave the famed knickerbockers? Well thankfully the NBA East is like a nuclear wasteland for success so they will still probably get a three seed, but unless their hands remain it is tough to see this lasting.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I'm hopefully catching them versus Boston in March. There could be a top 3 seed on the line by that stage, with any luck.
mushi
Roar Guru
Yep their defence, hot start and absence of another serious challenger outside Brooklyn (philly, pacers, boston and bulls all have their issues) gives them the inside running on a 2 or 3 seed even if they go cold from deep for a little bit. But there is still risk they fall into the “have issues camp”. The craziness of Knicks fans is what makes them great. I always try and fit in a game if I can when travelling there, I was at the garden for the arrival of Linsanity (his first start against the Jazz and then against the Lakers) and it was nuts, seemingly homeless guys were trying to flog jerseys’s with “lin” in black tape on the back because the knicks store has a week lead time. Though I must say a few years back I had to explain to a few New Yorkers who Pau Gasol was a week after he played in the allstar game.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Great piece, Mushi. I particularly enjoyed the description of Knicks fans. You can't question the Knicks start - they've been as surprising as they've been impressive. All credit to them. They've been playing good defense, which has also been a key to their early start, and a surprise as well. But I too think the law of averages (and therefore their perimeter shooting averages) will catch-up with them at some point. Additionally, I still have a feeling that there are some other things lurking in the background, waiting to have a negative impact. One is the team's age, which will surely be an issue at some stage in the season. The other is the return of Stoudemire, which could destroy the team's chemistry, particularly on the offensive end.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I've often said that Knicks fans are the best. As Mushi says, they're nuts and irrational, but they are knowledgable about basketball, appreciate good play (even by the opposition) and they support their team even through tough times. I'm not sure I'd be picking on Boston fans and calling them clowns - they're pretty loyal and solid. Lakers fans are a disgrace, and many aren't really fans at all. I know, I'm a loyal one, and I hate the ones that jump on the bandwagon simply because they've heard of the team, or saw Beckham in the front row.
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
Knicks had injuries, now their guns are back, namely Anthony they are going to be up there. Knicks fans are the best in basketball. Turn up week in week out even if they are losing, unlike the Boston or LA clowns.