2012 Sydney to Hobart: Live race updates, blog

At 1.00pm on Boxing Day, as lunch is taken at the MCG, the gun will fire to signal the start of the 68th Sydney to Hobart yacht race. We’ll have live updates as the race unfolds.

This year 78 yachts registered for the 628-nautical mile blue water classic, but unfortunately the Andrews 52 ‘Dodo’ has withdrawn, leaving a fleet of 77.

First run in 1945 as a race for friends down the east coast to Hobart, this annual event is now regarded as one of ocean racing’s premier events, alongside races like the Fastnet.

Every year the race attracts sailors and crews from all over the world, and this year is no exception with the first ever entrant from Lithuania, the Volvo 60 Ambersail.

To most casual viewers the event is just for rich boys with their expensive toys and rock star crew, and that may be just a little true for the super maxis at the front of the fleet. But the fact is the majority of competitors are everyday men and women who indulge their passion for sailing by crewing on yachts going south for the ‘Quiet Little Drink’.

Once again the race commences with a staggered start just off Nielson Park in Sydney Harbour, utilising two separate start lines, 0.2 nautical miles apart.

The staggered start allows the larger, fastest yachts (60 to 100 feet in length) a clear run to the heads, unimpeded by the smaller, slower yachts.

Each start line has its own distinct rounding buoy near the heads to even out the total distance travelled, just like the stagger on the running track.

Two major trophies will be up for grabs; The John Illingworth Trophy for the line honours winner and the Tattersall’s Cup for the overall winner on handicap or, in sailing parlance, corrected time.

For obvious reasons the majority of media and public interest will be on the race for line honours between the big boats, but what most sailors want to win, and the more prestigious of the two, is the Tattersall’s Cup.

The winner of this is likely to come from the smaller boats in the fleet. The handicapping system, the sailing equivalent of cricket’s Duckworth Lewis rule, is a complex equation taking into account the length, sail area, the age of a yacht’s design, and other technical factors to, in theory anyway, give all contestants a chance of winning overall.

So which are the boats to look out for? Last year Investec Loyal managed to upset pre race favourite Wild Oats XI by a margin of three minutes.

If all goes to plan this year, the race for line honours is likely to be between these two boats again, although this year Loyal has been chartered by veteran campaigner and oldest competitor Syd Fischer, and renamed Ragamuffin-Loyal.

These two yachts are two of the largest and fastest in the fleet, but this year there may be a smokey on the horizon in the guise of Grant Wharington’s Wild Thing.

This boat won the John Illingworth Trophy in 2003 and has recently undergone extensive modifications, including an increase in length to match Wild Oats and Loyal.

In ocean racing all does not always go to plan as nature may often has a say in the result. Adverse conditions can lead to equipment failure, sail, rigging or even hull damage, while an errant sunfish, whale or submerged shipping container can rip the keel of a yacht.

If any misfortune strikes the favourites, it may open the door for Lahana, Loki or Living Doll, all of which have been showing good speed in recent times.

The favourite would have to be Wild Oats XI; she has taken line honours every year since 2005, with the exception of 2009 and last year.

In 2009 her sister yacht the New Zealand supermaxi Alfa Romeo II, beat her by a couple of hours, after taking advantage of a breeze that missed the rest of the fleet on the first morning, and last year she was overtaken by Loyal early on the last morning, taking advantage of favourable wind conditions.

Wild Oats XI has had substantial modifications to her keel and sail plan (a new headsail the area of two tennis courts, 535 square metres) since last year, but the loss to Loyal really hurt all concerned with Wild Oats so she is looking for revenge. However I am going to stick my neck out and pick ‘Wild Thing’ to take line honours.

She is a downwind flyer under spinnaker, and if she can stay close to Wild Oats and Ragamuffin-Loyal during the first few hours of the race in the forecast fresh southerly wind, conditions should then swing to a nor’easter favouring her down wind speed.

In terms of the overall win, the forecast southerly change on the evening of day two or morning of day three will probably take all but the larger yachts out of contention as only they will have the speed to get across Bass Strait before the forecast change.

It means that there is a rare chance that the line honours winner will also take handicap honours, a rare feat; last achieved in 2005 by Wild Oats XI.

Loki and Lahana would have to be in contention, both yachts sail well to their handicap, with Lahana performing well in the CYCA Trophy and Loki adding the Sydney to Gold Coast title her list of achievements.

My pick would have to be Loki. She has consistently finished at the front of the fleet in many of the major offshore series in the past few years, is the right length to be with the front runners avoiding the southerly on day three, and looks set to repeat her Tattersall’s Cup victory from last year.

Apart from those in contention for the silverware, there are a few other yachts to keep an eye on. Perennial peoples favourite Brindabella will be there again this year.

Sadly she no longer carries the C1 sail number from the Canberra Yacht Club, having been bought in 2010 by Jim Cooney of the Cruising Yacht Club. She may not be at the very front of the fleet, but if any of the leaders slip up, she may be close enough to pounce. Look for her to finish in the top ten.

Another yacht to keep a look out for is Love and War. This 39-year-old veteran has won handicap honours three times, a record she shares with NSW yacht Freya, and is trying to be the first to win four.

Unfortunately conditions will probably not suit her this year, but almost certainly she will be back in 2013. For those with a sense of history and nostalgia keep an eye out for Maluka of Kermandie, she is the oldest (80 years of age) and shortest (30 feet) boat in the fleet.

She will most likely finish last over the line but is a reminder to all of the traditional boatbuilding skills. No carbon fibre here, she is constructed of good old Tasmanian Huon Pine throughout.

Although the fleet is smaller than last year it should be a great race again. Follow the race via The Roar blog from start to finish, beginning at 1.00pm AEDT this afternoon.