I don’t particularly like sitting on the fence. And I am not going to start now. Australia will not win the Ashes in England this year and this is why.
In very simple terms, their batting just isn’t good enough.
The recent one-day international struggles have served the purpose of highlighting the inadequacies that are currently blighting the Australian side and this will extend to the five-day format.
Rotation and the sense, or lack of it, is consuming plenty of column inches, however, that isn’t the reason why the trip to these parts in the summer will ultimately end in disappointment.
The upcoming series in India could provide an extremely callow line-up with the chance to prosper in time for the highest profile fixture of all, or it could have the contrasting effect of throwing yet another rat among the pigeons.
Either way, if I was Michael Clarke or Mickey Arthur I would be harbouring deep doubts about my side’s ability to produce the necessary scores when it matters.
Only Clarke of the current incumbents could be bracketed as world-class and one outstanding player does not a productive top order make.
That is where the cracks in the facade lie.
When all are fit, the seam bowling options are pretty good, Nathan Lyon is a better spinner than he seems to be given credit for and Matthew Wade, while not as good with bat in hand as Brad Haddin, is a steadily improving performer.
But take Clarke out of the mix and what is left?
David Warner has talent and is doing slightly more than just cutting the mustard on the Test scene
Ed Cowan doesn’t have the all-round game to score heavily at such a rarified level.
Shane Watson can certainly play but only two top level centuries in 38 matches is a dismal return for someone of his experience and ability.
Phil Hughes has improved, and markedly so, but is still relatively naive and feeling his way back in. He isn’t likely to produce on a consistent basis.
And then there is, er, who?
Of all the candidates, it will be a novice, or virtually the same, who will be thrown into the middle order.
Wade could stay at six but that leaves a lengthy tail and would constitute a big gamble and taking such a punt would either be extremely brave or downright foolhardy.
A glance at who they are coming up against merely exaggerates the inexperience of the Australians.
Thirty-one centuries – this is assuming it will be Warner, Cowan, Clarke, Hughes, Watson, Wade and another – 22 of which have come from the captain, barely scratches the surface of the 97 that the likely Indian top seven can boast or the 71 their English counterparts can offer.
Such wetness behind the ears may not necessarily be a bad thing, after all, playing with a certain lack of knowledge can result in surprisingly good results but it isn’t looking likely if my eyes can be trusted.
What was shown in the recent series against South Africa and Sri Lanka didn’t hint at upcoming struggle, yet this included a prolific Mike Hussey and a sub-continental attack that was far from threatening.
Throw in the indecisiveness that gave Rob Quiney a baffling couple of games, Hughes a belated return and no number six in Sydney and the pond is muddied further.
So put all the aforementioned ingredients into the mixing bowl and the only outcome visible from this side of the world isn’t the one that Aussie fans would care to witness.
Even with the inbuilt bias towards the English, this isn’t a rose-tinted point of view.
Australia will not win the Ashes and that is why.
ashfak joy
Guest
i agree with justin, wade is a youngster haddins already 35. so i prefer wade.
ashfak joy
Guest
steve'o keefee woud be a gud chice, as he is both batsman and bowler, and a very gud off.spinner, at least better than lyon
nicko
Guest
how about we play johnson/starc instead of maxwell as it adds not as much with the bat but a strike bowler, sidle,bird r pressure bowlers not strike bowlers
Justin2
Guest
In form haddin v wade is of little meaning if the records show that Haddin isn't in form very often... At least we know what the English think now though ;)
Justin2
Guest
Didn't he belt those guys all I'verbthe park in his first series in SA?
Justin2
Guest
He has been very good at times, immense? I'm not so sure that is appropriate
Finny92
Roar Rookie
"This, I think, is the key to the Ashes. The Aussie bowlers are good enough to take twenty wickets at a decent clip, especially if the Duke starts swinging. The major question is going to be whether the English bowlers can live up to the hype and get a hold on our batsmen." I think you're over rating the aus bowling attack, whilst under rating our batting. Finn has improved and put on a yard or 2 since the most recent ashes, he's 88-9 mph, can get up at 94 mph. Anderson is still class, Broad was injured for the summer against SA, Bres hasn't been the same since his elbow injury
pope paul v11
Guest
Thanks
Alec Swann
Expert
From what I've seen of Pattinson he looks pretty good, swing at a handy pace will always be effective. I wouldn't compare him to James Anderson, although both are likely to lead their respective teams' attacks, mainly on the basis that Anderson has played 77 Tests all over the world and Pattinson has appeared only seven times. If he stays fit then he has the ability and potential to be very good but he is very much a work in progress.
Big Pete
Guest
Haddin better than Wade with the bat? Don't think so chief, you must be watching a different game than the rest of the cricketing audience.
Disco
Roar Guru
Bad injuries.
Disco
Roar Guru
Rogers is far too sensible a pick for the NSP.
Disco
Roar Guru
Touche.
Disco
Roar Guru
Swann bowls a lot more overs. His captain trusts him because they know he's world-class. Do you reckon Clarke has the same confidence in Nathan Lyon?
Disco
Roar Guru
Now people laugh at England's specialists.
Disco
Roar Guru
Based on getting wickets against the travelling Indian team? Yeah, Anderson's rubbish, Broad's rubbish, Finn's rubbish, Tremlett's rubbish, Onions is rubbish, Bresnan is rubbish, Harris is rubbish, Woakes is rubbish, Swann is rubbish, Panesar is rubbish. Hilfy, Johnson, Lyon and Siddle are frighteningly good. And what about that fella Cummins?! So much experience! Oi! Oi! Oi!
Disco
Roar Guru
Pattinson's done it against all comers, hasn't he?
Disco
Roar Guru
Anderson is better than any of Australia's bowlers. His overall Test average doesn't obscure objective followers of the game from the fact he's been immense for several years, and played a key role in England winning the past two Ashes series.
Disco
Roar Guru
Oh, yes, Forrest who was the reserve Test batsman last time Australia toured overseas. (Scoffs)
Disco
Roar Guru
They'll pick Doherty.