Stage three of the 2013 Tour Down Under displayed exactly why I don’t gamble. If I had tried to pick the top 20 places, I wouldn’t have put any money on Tom Jelte Slagter of Team Blanco.
Slagter won stage three’s uphill battle with ease, as his Australian teammate David ‘Biff’ Tanner flexed his own quadriceps as acting Team Blanco train driver and delivered a superb lead out.
From 600-300m to go the Big Biff elasticised the peloton, before his teammate snapped off the pointy end and onward to Victory Station.
Uber impressive was this young Dutch monster, and to put away the likes of Matthew Goss (Orica-GreenEDGE) and Philippe Gilbert (BMC) on such a powerful finish meant the big lad has true talent.
Preceding the glory of stage three’s hero was the story of two Clarkes. Unlike two wrongs, two Clarkes do make a right, and their pursuit for glory lasted – in total – an impressive 100 or so kilometres in the front of the bike race.
Given that William Clarke was in the breakaway all day yesterday, and not long ago Simon Clarke had his appendix out, makes the Australian duo all the more impressive.
As the two pressed on up the road, trying with utmost impetus to improve their odds of arriving at the finish line in first place, the peloton gambled again under the assumption that Team Sky would reel them in for a well-hedged investment of a finale.
The accent of Jens Voigt rings in my ears, “If I get in the breakaway, I have a one in 10 chance we will survive to the end. If I wait for the sprint finish, I have no chance.” It all makes sense, Jens too understands it’s all one big poker match (not that I know how to play poker).
The trend continues, as you can hopefully see, as we confront the various angles of a sport (and essentially a life) bound by fortune and luck.
The (large) peloton continued to assume they had the race under control, working for a team leader who assumed he had the finale covered. They dangled the (small) breakaway group out in front for as long as possible, showing as little of their cards as necessary.
The two Clarkes had been out in front all day, but nearing the last hour they were joined by another five riders, relieving the two of total control. The race was harder than Team Sky had predicted though, and they were left with a less than optimal quantity of three riders with one lap (20km) remaining.
Edvald Boassen Hagen looked quite helplessly trapped ‘in the box’ when he retired from the foremost extremity of the main bunch, peeling from first place where he had been riding hard, and like a piece of orange skin being dropped out of a car window, gravity wasn’t helping him. That was 15km to go and the breakaway group remained detached from its larger colleague, due equally to the efforts of all seven men in front.
There was no ‘crystal cranking’ to be seen in the finale today, as each member of the breakaway worked with potency to the pedals. Simon and William Clarke (for the record, no relation) continued to empty themselves for their respective teammates, whom had come across to increase the likelihood of their teams’ chance at winning the race.
Also in the group was the Costa Rican coffee bean himself, Andrey Amador, who showed us all that last year’s Giro d’Italia stage 14 victory was no fluke, purely by the speed at which he was riding. That man is fast, and motivated too.
The Team Sky gamble ended up functioning effectively however, as Lotto-Belisol team helped take up chase nearer the finish to ensure the last breakaway was recaptured (they must have thought Adam Hansen was capable of winning, he achieved 19th), and so the peloton became once again ‘all together’.
Capitalising on the process of ‘anomaly consideration’, the winner Slagter decided his best bet was to start sprinting at 300m to go post-leadout and just ride everyone off his wheel. Admittedly said plan of action functioned with perfection and he did just that.
Notable mention goes to Tiago Machado, the Portuguese Bandido who attempted to defy probability on two occasions (circa the 100 and 135 km marks), pressing forward with high motivation. He proved a tad too strong for his counterparts in attempt number one, as he tore them all apart and had nobody else to ride with. As his bell rang for round two, he cracked the whip solo near the finish but his attempt didn’t come to fruition.
Gambling is bad. There are many factors to take into consideration and many angles of perspective to view before you can be sure your bet is an objective one and you have capitalised on all available information to make a truly informed decision.
I bet a lot of people gambled on a seemingly standard race layout for stage three and lost. I hope you learnt your lesson.